The Middle East remains the main front on the planet of world war: in the strip from North Africa to the borders of Turkey and Iran. Another front of world war was designated along the line West-East ("Ukrainian Front"). Here, a Western-led coup in Ukraine led to the inclusion of the Republic of Crimea into the Russian Federation and anti-Russian sanctions. In eastern Ukraine (Little Russia), a civil war has begun between Russians and Russians, who are zombied to the state of "Ukrainians" or simply fighting for duty or for money. Kiev supports Berlin, Brussels, Washington and the NATO bloc, and the militia supports the "north wind" from Russia.
From the main front of the world war, the world community is distracted by various information "noise". The next war games on the Korean Peninsula. The Asia-Pacific region is likely to be another front of world war, but this is still far away. The problem of refugees from the countries of the South and to Europe. However, this problem is only a consequence and an echo of the great war unleashed in the Middle East. Its solution is impossible without the elimination of the center of world war in the Middle East. Iran's nuclear program and other information peels.
In the Middle East there is a confrontation along two main lines. First, inside the Islamic civilization. Here there are three main forces:
1) “Black” Islam is a radical Islam that represents “Islamic State” (the germ of the “Caliphate” project). It was created by Western political consultants. In fact, "Caliphate" became a tool to incite the Fourth World War (The Third World War is the “cold war”, which ended with the death of Soviet civilization and the collapse of “Great Russia”). The new world war should, according to the plan of the owners of the western project (Western civilization), end with the death of the civilizations of the states - Russia, China, possibly India, the complete destruction and transformation of the Islamic world and the fundamental change of Europe. "Caliphate" in this war plays the role of the Third Reich. In essence, the “Islamic State” is the “Hitler” project at a new stage in the development of the world stories. “Black” Islam, on the one hand, is destructive, archaic in nature, since it cannot lead humanity to the “Kingdom of Justice”, the victory of the ethics of conscience and the society of creation and service, leading to war, chaos and destruction. On the other hand, Islam has a core of justice, it challenges the lack of spirituality and the worldview of materialism, so the “Caliphate” is popular not only in the Islamic world, but also in Europe mired in debauchery and spiritual and physical degradation. And many young people, Germans, French, British, Slavs, in whom there is a spark of spirituality, a dream, fall for this bait.
2) Secular Islam (“red” Islam), with a predominance of the ideology of nationalism and socialism. These are the remnants of the statehood of Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Algeria and a number of other countries. In general, these countries have been sentenced by supranational forces (the masters of the West, the world backstage, the "golden elite", etc.) to extermination. All the secular states of the Islamic world are going to crush, absorb the most valuable assets, “dispose” of the population, partly push it out to Europe to cause a surge of Nazism and finish off the white race. Iran can be attributed to the same camp, although it is a theocracy, but the ideology of nationalism and Islamic socialism is also present in Iran.
3) The third force is the Arab monarchies headed by Saudi Arabia. Arab monarchies took part in the creation of the “Islamic State”, hoping to destroy their competitors - the secular states, and to realize their “Caliphate” project, with huge information, financial and natural resources. With the possibility of obtaining nuclear weapons through Pakistan and the most modern weapons purchased from the United States in Europe and Russia. With its regional currency. However, the plans of the owners of the West go further - the Arab monarchies are outdated and must also leave the world arena, they have fulfilled their role. Moor did his job, moor can leave. With the help of the Arab monarchies, Iraq, Libya, Syria were destroyed, they invaded Yemen. True, realizing that they are also in the position of the victim, the Arab elites were alarmed, temporarily pulled Egypt out of the crisis, giving it financial resources to stabilize the internal situation and armaments. Also, Egypt, which became an ally and the main military force of the monarchies and the Arab monarchies, began to actively flirt with Moscow, trying to use the resources of Russia to get out of the inferno pit, which they themselves actively dug. But in perspective, the Arab monarchies are doomed. They have exhausted their time. By taking part in the creation of a network monster ISIS, getting involved in the war in Syria and Yemen, they signed a death warrant.
The second main line of confrontation: South - North, the Islamic world and the western "Babylon". The masters of the West created the “Caliphate” to finish off the white race, destroy the old European, Christianity-based civilization, and crush the nation states of the Old World. At the same time, there is a scenario that the war and the new migration of peoples will lead to the victory of neo-Nazism in Europe, the “Fourth Reich”. However, the Fourth Reich, apparently, will not be able to withstand the wave from the South and the internal destructive tendencies. Europeans in their mass morally degraded to "vegetables", there are almost no fighters, and demography does not give Europe chances for success. Perhaps the future of Europe is ultramodern ghettos (this is shown in science fiction films), which will try to isolate themselves from the rest of the territory, which will plunge into the darkness of archaism, neo-slaveholding and neo-feudal relations. Some of the former prosperous countries are already in this “dark ages” world. For example, Libya, where there are tribal territories and territories that control various large gangs, including those who consider themselves legitimate.
The third line of confrontation could be Russia's active participation in the fight against the “Caliphate”. No wonder the information space is actively pumping information that Russia sharply intensified its participation in the Syrian war. According to official data, Moscow has increased the supply of weapons to Damascus. According to unofficial Russia, it intends to build a military air base in Syria, supporting the Syrian army from the air and even send an expeditionary force to that country. Such rumors are spreading regularly, but this period of their activation is clearly aimed at getting Russia into a Syrian conflict with the head.
On the one hand, Moscow’s clear participation in the Syrian conflict has its advantages. Firstly, the “Caliphate” project is a worldwide threat. And network terrorism with the activation of Islamism (Wahhabism, jihadism) with elements of nationalist separatism in the Muslim regions is a terrible threat for Moscow and the entire Russian civilization. At the same time, the internal destabilization of Russia will be accompanied by, or will begin with the destabilization of Central Asia. The situation is especially dangerous in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, where the first bells have already rung. And Turkmenistan is extremely weak.
The Syrian and Iraqi armies, and other local forces, are not able to cope with the project “Caliphate” independently. The participation of Iran saved the secular regimes of Iraq and Syria from complete defeat, but the situation is grave. Iran cannot provide more explicit assistance, as it is constrained by the United States and the Arab monarchies. The US and its allies are officially fighting the “Islamic State”, but in fact support the “Caliphate” project through various unofficial channels and causing hatred of the local population with their “accurate” air attacks. Turkey actually supports the terrorists by creating a logistics base on its territory for Syrian militias, and attacking Kurds fighting the Islamic State.
Secondly, Russia can strengthen (actually restore) its position in the Mediterranean, in the Middle East and in the Islamic world. Thanks to their actions (mass slaughter, slave trade, rape, removal of organs from people, destruction of monuments of world history, etc.), jihadists are perceived as an absolute evil in the world. In essence, ISIS is the “collective Hitler.” Therefore, in the eyes of the world community, Russia can become a “liberator”, a redeemer of the world from the threat of an “Islamic state”. At the same time, Russia can strengthen its positions in Syria, Iraq, Egypt and other countries of the Islamic and Arab world, and will receive political and economic dividends, including from the sale of weapons.
However, on the other hand, Russia's direct intervention in the war in the Middle East has so many drawbacks that they outweigh the advantages. First, Russia is not ready for such a war. The main role is played by the country's internal readiness for war, the mobilization of all resources from ideology to the economy. Thus, the Soviet Union was ready for World War II thanks to internal spiritual unity, the creation of a society of creation and service, where the total is higher than private, the rapid development of science and technology, industrialization and collectivization, and the comprehensive preparation of the Military Industrial Complex and the army.
This is not the case in the Russian Federation. There is no spiritual and ideological unity. Society is divided into Christians, Muslims, Neopagans, atheists, admirers of all kinds of sects, etc. For monarchists, liberals, democrats, communists, socialists, nationalists (including provincials), etc. For rich and poor, for "successful" and "Losers". Young people were taken to dozens of different subcultures with Western roots. Bikers are the personification of state patriotism, that is, a typical Western subculture that has grown up on Western associations of marginal, bandit type. Society has a real kaleidoscope in their heads. A mixture of remnants of Soviet education, the upcoming religious archaic, and the victorious Western postmodernism. To what all this leads, we can see the example of Ukraine (Little Russia), a large fragment of the Russian civilization, where the Russians have already been strained with the Russians.
We have a consumer society. Westerners dominate the Russian elite, for whom London and Paris are closer than Ryazan and Novgorod. Science and education, thanks to Western "vaccinations" and the domination of Western-liberals in this sphere, is in decline. Finance under the control of Western liberals, that is, the West. The industry is in crisis, in technological dependence on the West and the East. Positive advances are noticeable only in the armed forces and the military industrial complex.
Thus, the Russian Federation is not ready for a big war. Modern Russia is more like the Russian Empire of the 1913 model of the year than the Stalinist USSR 1939 of the year. Participation in a big war is most likely a death sentence for Russia, perhaps for the entire Russian civilization, which simply will not have the strength and ability to recover from the ashes. To be ready for a big war, an internal transformation of Russia is needed, as well as the revitalization of the project “Grad Kitezh” (“The Kingdom of Good and Truth”).
Secondly, Russia is not capable of independently ridding the world of the virus of jihadism. Russia may possibly strengthen the Syrian army so much and even directly support its air force and special forces, which will lead to the liberation of the country's territory from ISIS. But it cannot liberate all countries where the metastases of the “Islamic State” have already emerged and consolidated. Russia can not destroy the causes and causes that gave rise to LIH. After all, the request for justice and the fight against the spiritlessness of the West is objective. Russia cannot independently overcome such social diseases of a huge region as mass poverty, corruption, social injustice, lack of social elevators, distortions in economic development (parasitism of oil and gas powers), etc.
To defeat the “Caliphate” project, it is necessary to offer the world a project of a fair world order (Russian globalization). But for this, again, the internal transformation of Russia is necessary. Only a consistent and successful internal transformation of Russia will allow it to launch a Russian globalization project, satisfying the need of people for justice. Concept vs concept. Western unfair concept can win only fair.
Third, the West and the Islamists will do everything to push the Russian and Islamic civilization. Russia will try to show the image of the aggressor, as in Afghanistan. Russia will immediately turn into a target for terrorists. Moscow, Volgograd, Kazan, Grozny will undergo attacks of terrorists. The Wahhabi jihadist cells throughout Russia will be activated. The enemy will try to sway the situation in the North Caucasus and in other regions of Russia. Stability - the main achievement of the era of Vladimir Putin's rule - will collapse. And it is already undermined by the war of sanctions with the West.
By openly interfering in the war in Syria, we are creating the possibility of creating a center of a protracted war that will deplete the resources of Russia, which are already linked by the conflict in Ukraine. The resources of Russia and our opponents are not comparable. The “Islamic State” will continue to be supported by the Arab monarchies, Turkey and the West.
There will be a new split in society. Sending Russian troops to Syria may initially cause a new explosion of patriotism. But part of society will not understand why Russian soldiers should die for Arab interests. As the war tightens, the social situation will worsen. The West will receive another opportunity to cause a social explosion in Russia.
Fourth, it is obvious that the West is seeking to draw Russia into conflict in the Middle East. A large number of publications appear on how exactly the Russian Federation should be involved in the fight against IS, from air strikes to special forces operations. The West benefits from drawing Russia into a big war in the Middle East, with unclear consequences in the context of the weakening of our country as a result of sanctions and the onset of an economic recession. In addition, this may lead to a strategic redirection of the main IS strikes to Russia (including through Central Asia and the Caucasus).
Therefore, the best option for Moscow is military-technical assistance to the Syrian army, perhaps sending military experts, as well as political coordination to create a real international coalition against the IS, rather than a pro-Western one, which allegedly fights with the IS. History, including Western countries, teaches that it is best to use other people's resources. You can maintain those forces that are already actively fighting with jihadists, or form new ones. So, Damascus, Tehran and Baghdad are our outposts, the “advanced troops” in the fight against the monster spawned by the West. They need to be actively supported, but the full-scale participation of the Russian Federation in this war, especially given the complex internal situation, the lack of unity of society and the readiness of the country's economy, is a strategic mistake that can lead to the defeat of Russian civilization.