Infantry will become sailors?
On September 3, it became known that President Xi Jinping made a statement during a military parade on the occasion of the seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II. According to Comrade Xi, China intends to reduce the size of the army by three hundred thousand people. Some analysts have associated such a large reduction with the economic problems of the Middle Kingdom. It should be noted that the explanation is quite convincing. Xi Jinping himself assures that the Chinese are striving for peace. However, there is an opinion of experts who believe that the Chinese leadership has planned a reduction in ground forces and will redistribute resources in favor of fleet.
It is estimated that the People’s Liberation Army of China is the largest in the world. The number of PLA soldiers is about 2,3 million people. And even with such an impressive number of warriors, the number in three hundred thousand redundant looks very large.
September 3 at a military parade on the occasion of the 70 anniversary of the end of World War II, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the imminent reduction of the army to 300 thousands of people. “China will never seek hegemony and expansion,” Xi Jinping explained the decision of the party. The PRC Chairman also stressed that Beijing is committed to peace.
Some details about the upcoming cuts have become known from the message of the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of China Yang Yujun. Speaking at a press conference, he said that China would complete a reduction in army numbers by 300 by thousands of people by the end of 2017.
Yang Yujun’s statement followed a few hours after Xi Jinping spoke at a parade in Beijing.
“The current reduction in the size of the army will affect mainly troops with outdated weapons, administrative personnel and non-combat personnel. The reform as a whole will be completed by the end of 2017 of the year, ”quotes Yang Yujun RIA News".
He also noted that "the Chinese army will become smaller, but more effective."
What do the experts think about the reform?
“These are the expected plans that have repeatedly appeared in the form of various leaks,” said in an interview "Sight" Vasily Kashin, expert of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. - The reduction will occur mainly at the expense of the ground forces, which in the current political conditions in this volume China simply does not need, because China has no serious land opponents. This reduction will not mean any reduction in costs. We are talking about a major redistribution of resources from the ground forces towards more high-tech types of the armed forces, mainly the fleet. ”
According to the expert, the reform process will continue, because the sea direction is a priority for the Chinese strategy.
There is, however, another opinion about the planned reduction of the armed forces of China.
Alexei Maslov, head of the department of oriental studies at the Higher School of Economics, reminded that the PRC army had recently increased. According to Western experts, the increase in the PLA in 2010-2015. amounted to 500 thousand people.
According to the analyst, the announcement of a reduction of three hundred thousand people is a “symbolic gesture” that China needs to polish its image. “Over the past year,” the expert said, “the country has been subjected to very many accusations that it is building up its armed forces to change the policy in the direction of greater military aggression. And this was reflected in the image of China in East Asia as a country that has long preached purely economic issues. ”
In addition, the planned reform is aimed at modernizing the Chinese army: today it’s not the number of people that is important, but the quality of their training and new technologies.
Maslov noted that we are not talking about the dismissal of hundreds of thousands of people: “We are talking about the gradual withdrawal from military service of a number of non-core units, for example, those involved in the fight against catastrophes, and a reduction in conscription. This is a fundamental moment, Xi Jinping, of course, is extremely afraid of destabilizing the situation. ”
And here is another opinion.
Director of the Institute for Regional Development of Almaty University of Management Valikhan Tuleshov gave an interview to a Chinese agency Xinhuain which he noted that Xi Jinping’s statement on the reduction of the army’s number stems from China’s peace-loving foreign policy.
Tuleshov reminded the agency that China made a significant contribution to the victory over Japanese militarism and imperialism. During the Second World War, China lost 35 millions of people, the country was destroyed.
According to Tuleshov, a significant reduction in the number of the Chinese army is not at all talking about weakness, but on the contrary, about China’s increased strength.
It is easy to see that all the above opinions differ in some vagueness and abundance of common phrases. It can be concluded: experts are forced to guess what is happening in the PLA.
The other day in the media appeared interviews with people who showed a more thorough knowledge of the issue. In particular, it is noted that the “decorative-representative role” of some army command structures in the PRC will give way to real functions. The Chinese already have modern technology, but the management structures will have to be modernized.
“Prerequisites for PLA reform emerged a year ago, when Xi Jinping not only gained formal control over the armed forces, heading the Central Military Council, but also established a new body, the Security Council. Thus, conditions were created for reformatting the entire control system of the power structures, ”the newspaper said Kommersant Alexei Voskresensky, dean of the faculty of political science at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
According to the political scientist, "the goal of the PLA reform is to allow it to quickly solve the problems that the country faces at a new stage." And here, first of all, “we are talking about creating a powerful fleet - several aircraft carrier groups, which will ensure the safety of the infrastructure of the Sea Silk Road and the implementation of other mega-projects proclaimed among Beijing's international priorities.” In addition, the need for the development of the fleet, and aviation dictated by the tense situation in the East China and South China Seas.
With reference to the Hong Kong edition of the South China Morning Post, the Kommersant newspaper gives some details about the reform of the PLA. The Hong Kong edition notes that the functions of the main political directorate, the general directorate of the rear and the general directorate of armaments will now be divided between the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense, which previously performed a decorative-representative role.
As Vasily Kashin, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Kommersant, the Chinese army’s reforms are due to the lagging of command and control structures from technical modernization processes: “Over the past 15 years, the Chinese have jumped over two technological generations and already have a full range of modern weapons. Now they need to teach the personnel to manage all this and update the command structure. ”
Thus, let us add, whatever one may say, and the number of the PLA will indeed be significantly reduced: the reforms will "thin out" troops with outdated weapons, cut down the number of administrative and non-combat personnel. Over the 15 years in the PLA, a lot of things have changed, and progress has not stood still. Parts with outdated weapons in the PRC represent today a real burden, which is especially noticeable at the time of economic instability. The emphasis in the modernization of the PLA will be on the fleet and aircraft, including because of the well-known island conflicts of China with its neighbors.
In addition to the economic and technological, there is another reason for the reduction of the army: 2,3 million. at the present level of development of the armed forces and the methods of "remote" war, Beijing simply does not need it. No one will climb into China, even if he puts two million soldiers against "all" enemies.
It is estimated that the People’s Liberation Army of China is the largest in the world. The number of PLA soldiers is about 2,3 million people. And even with such an impressive number of warriors, the number in three hundred thousand redundant looks very large.
September 3 at a military parade on the occasion of the 70 anniversary of the end of World War II, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the imminent reduction of the army to 300 thousands of people. “China will never seek hegemony and expansion,” Xi Jinping explained the decision of the party. The PRC Chairman also stressed that Beijing is committed to peace.
Some details about the upcoming cuts have become known from the message of the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of China Yang Yujun. Speaking at a press conference, he said that China would complete a reduction in army numbers by 300 by thousands of people by the end of 2017.
Yang Yujun’s statement followed a few hours after Xi Jinping spoke at a parade in Beijing.
“The current reduction in the size of the army will affect mainly troops with outdated weapons, administrative personnel and non-combat personnel. The reform as a whole will be completed by the end of 2017 of the year, ”quotes Yang Yujun RIA News".
He also noted that "the Chinese army will become smaller, but more effective."
What do the experts think about the reform?
“These are the expected plans that have repeatedly appeared in the form of various leaks,” said in an interview "Sight" Vasily Kashin, expert of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. - The reduction will occur mainly at the expense of the ground forces, which in the current political conditions in this volume China simply does not need, because China has no serious land opponents. This reduction will not mean any reduction in costs. We are talking about a major redistribution of resources from the ground forces towards more high-tech types of the armed forces, mainly the fleet. ”
According to the expert, the reform process will continue, because the sea direction is a priority for the Chinese strategy.
There is, however, another opinion about the planned reduction of the armed forces of China.
Alexei Maslov, head of the department of oriental studies at the Higher School of Economics, reminded that the PRC army had recently increased. According to Western experts, the increase in the PLA in 2010-2015. amounted to 500 thousand people.
According to the analyst, the announcement of a reduction of three hundred thousand people is a “symbolic gesture” that China needs to polish its image. “Over the past year,” the expert said, “the country has been subjected to very many accusations that it is building up its armed forces to change the policy in the direction of greater military aggression. And this was reflected in the image of China in East Asia as a country that has long preached purely economic issues. ”
In addition, the planned reform is aimed at modernizing the Chinese army: today it’s not the number of people that is important, but the quality of their training and new technologies.
Maslov noted that we are not talking about the dismissal of hundreds of thousands of people: “We are talking about the gradual withdrawal from military service of a number of non-core units, for example, those involved in the fight against catastrophes, and a reduction in conscription. This is a fundamental moment, Xi Jinping, of course, is extremely afraid of destabilizing the situation. ”
And here is another opinion.
Director of the Institute for Regional Development of Almaty University of Management Valikhan Tuleshov gave an interview to a Chinese agency Xinhuain which he noted that Xi Jinping’s statement on the reduction of the army’s number stems from China’s peace-loving foreign policy.
Tuleshov reminded the agency that China made a significant contribution to the victory over Japanese militarism and imperialism. During the Second World War, China lost 35 millions of people, the country was destroyed.
According to Tuleshov, a significant reduction in the number of the Chinese army is not at all talking about weakness, but on the contrary, about China’s increased strength.
It is easy to see that all the above opinions differ in some vagueness and abundance of common phrases. It can be concluded: experts are forced to guess what is happening in the PLA.
The other day in the media appeared interviews with people who showed a more thorough knowledge of the issue. In particular, it is noted that the “decorative-representative role” of some army command structures in the PRC will give way to real functions. The Chinese already have modern technology, but the management structures will have to be modernized.
“Prerequisites for PLA reform emerged a year ago, when Xi Jinping not only gained formal control over the armed forces, heading the Central Military Council, but also established a new body, the Security Council. Thus, conditions were created for reformatting the entire control system of the power structures, ”the newspaper said Kommersant Alexei Voskresensky, dean of the faculty of political science at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
According to the political scientist, "the goal of the PLA reform is to allow it to quickly solve the problems that the country faces at a new stage." And here, first of all, “we are talking about creating a powerful fleet - several aircraft carrier groups, which will ensure the safety of the infrastructure of the Sea Silk Road and the implementation of other mega-projects proclaimed among Beijing's international priorities.” In addition, the need for the development of the fleet, and aviation dictated by the tense situation in the East China and South China Seas.
With reference to the Hong Kong edition of the South China Morning Post, the Kommersant newspaper gives some details about the reform of the PLA. The Hong Kong edition notes that the functions of the main political directorate, the general directorate of the rear and the general directorate of armaments will now be divided between the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense, which previously performed a decorative-representative role.
As Vasily Kashin, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Kommersant, the Chinese army’s reforms are due to the lagging of command and control structures from technical modernization processes: “Over the past 15 years, the Chinese have jumped over two technological generations and already have a full range of modern weapons. Now they need to teach the personnel to manage all this and update the command structure. ”
Thus, let us add, whatever one may say, and the number of the PLA will indeed be significantly reduced: the reforms will "thin out" troops with outdated weapons, cut down the number of administrative and non-combat personnel. Over the 15 years in the PLA, a lot of things have changed, and progress has not stood still. Parts with outdated weapons in the PRC represent today a real burden, which is especially noticeable at the time of economic instability. The emphasis in the modernization of the PLA will be on the fleet and aircraft, including because of the well-known island conflicts of China with its neighbors.
In addition to the economic and technological, there is another reason for the reduction of the army: 2,3 million. at the present level of development of the armed forces and the methods of "remote" war, Beijing simply does not need it. No one will climb into China, even if he puts two million soldiers against "all" enemies.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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