Hybrid war in the economic sphere
The weakening of the modern system of global security, its deformation and fragmentation lead to the increasing chaos of international relations. Modern destructive technologies used in the interests of solving the task of ensuring global domination of the West, combined with unskilled and short-sighted actions of governments and irresponsible opposition slogans, place individual states and nations on the brink of disaster. With the growing global criticality, the composition of the forces involved in conflicts is changing, new non-traditional threats are emerging. In this regard, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, "today's world lives in a very limited planning horizon, especially in the field of politics and security."HYBRID WAR AGAINST RUSSIA
In their quest for world hegemony, the United States is trying to use global instability to weaken strategic competitors, primarily China, Russia and the European Union. Such a policy, combined with “managed chaos” in organizing color revolutions and hybrid wars, along with some other factors, helps create global criticality, which undermines the fundamental foundations of the existing world order.
Globalization as the strengthening of international economic, financial, political, cultural, demographic interrelations and interdependencies affects all three key areas of the management of collective activity of people at the national level: administrative-state (political) management; management of the socio-economic sphere; management of the cultural and ideological sphere. In each area of management there are key areas of criticality, the impact on which can have a strong influence on the stable development of a particular country. The strategies of color revolution and hybrid warfare based on “managed chaos” technologies show their high effectiveness in destabilizing each of the key areas of managing the collective activity of people. In the context of global interconnection, the scale of the economy of a country subjected to aggression determines the scale of the impact of the resulting changes, the consequences of which are inevitably projected onto other states, up to global coverage.
For many years now, Russia has been the main goal of a hybrid war conducted by its geopolitical opponents in the face of the united West, which requires continuous monitoring of the situation, gathering and analyzing information in order to work out steps to counter the threat.
Academician of the RAS Sergey Glazyev says about the urgency of solving this problem: “Apparently, historical the choice has already taken place: the Russian leadership’s policy of restoring sovereignty and Eurasian integration has led the US ruling circles to aggression against the Russian Federation by seizing control of Ukraine and turning it into a springboard to launch the hybrid world war being fought by Washington in order to maintain world leadership in growing competition with China. "Russia was chosen by American geopolitics as the direction of the main blow due to a combination of objective and subjective circumstances."
Within the framework of this article, it is supposed to consider the issues of using subversive technologies in the economic sphere and suggest possible ways of opposition.
GOALS OF MANAGED CHAOS IN ECONOMY
In economics, as an important object of application of “controlled chaos” technologies, criticality can be created in each of the four interrelated and interdependent areas: production, distribution, exchange and consumption. Taking into account the purpose and specifics of the functioning of each of the areas, an appropriate set of subversive technologies can be selected.
Thus, the sphere of production, in which the creation of tangible and intangible goods is carried out, is very vulnerable to chaos. Material goods are created in industry, construction, agriculture, mining and some other industries. The sphere of intangible production includes cargo and passenger transportation, utilities, education, health, etc. Chaotization can be very effective in conditions of insufficient development of the real sector of the country's economy. Sanctions aimed at damaging the energy and financial sectors of the economy, as well as the defense industry, engineering and mining industries can have a serious economic effect.
Separately, it is necessary to highlight the danger of external subversive (and sometimes simply unqualified actions of their own managers) in the fields of education and training, since without the presence of scientists, engineers, middle-level specialists and workers who meet modern standards of science and the production base, the economy of any country will be doomed to degradation.
In recent years, the increasing use of private military companies (PMCs) to ensure the security of a wide range of economic facilities and communications has contributed to the chaos of the situation in individual countries, which effectively removes entire sectors of the national economy from state control. This is especially indicative of underdeveloped states that are not capable of ensuring control over the national territory on their own. The commercial benefit is decisive in the activities of PMCs, which predetermines the interest of such companies in maintaining military tensions in the employing country. At the same time, the sovereign right of the state to use military force is being eroded. Unfortunately, the necessary international legal norms for regulating the activities of PMCs have not yet been created.
In domestic policy, violations of the principles of social justice in society in the process of distribution of the material goods produced can be a powerful source of tension. Such violations can be triggered by corruption, disruptions in the work of state institutions — for example, housing and public utilities, social security agencies, or tax authorities — through ill-considered reforms affecting the interests of millions of people.
The activity of the exchange sphere is largely based on finances, which constitute a rather vulnerable part of the economy of any state. The experience of the collapse of the USSR and color revolutions in a number of countries shows that financial chaos is ensured by the use of international monetary and financial organizations controlled by the West, the introduction of targeted sanctions in the areas of production and financial banking, the manipulation of oil and gas prices. For example, the continued use of the dollar in financial calculations in Russia creates objective prerequisites for the chaos of the financial system due to the targeted collapse of the ruble. In this context, the steps of Russia and the partners in BRICS and the SCO to form a new economic order and create an alternative to the ubiquitous dollar seem timely and correct. Russia and China last year signed an agreement on currency swaps for 25 billion dollars. Sberbank of Russia announced the issuance of letters of credit with financing from the Export-Import Bank of China, the Russian authorities are exploring the possibility of issuing debt securities in yuan.
And after in the West they announced the possible disconnection of Russia from SWIFT against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, Moscow and Beijing are exploring the possibility of introducing alternative SWIFT payment systems for BRICS. Other steps of strategic scope are being taken.
To participate in the sanctions against Russia in the framework of bloc discipline, the US allies in NATO and the European Union are involved. Sanctions are aimed at restricting the country's access to international financial markets, the banking system, to tightening WTO rules and other trade rules affecting exports. At the same time, Washington gives its allies a dubious pleasure to clear up the negative consequences of such adventures for them.
And finally, the chaos of the consumption process can be carried out, for example, by manipulating the prices of products, the introduction of an embargo on the supply of critical goods.
In recent years, Islamic radicalism has been used as a powerful anti-systemic force for the chaos of the energy and transport spheres on a national and international scale (mainly in the Near and Middle East, in Afghanistan and Central Asia). In Europe, the subversive arsenal of means of chaos has been replenished with militant nationalism and extremism in Ukraine and in some other countries.
Thus, an analysis of the characteristics of using technology controlled chaos for subversive activities directed against target states shows that the socio-economic sphere, primarily finance, energy (oil production and gas) and international transport communications.
One of the tools that contribute to countering subversive activities and ensuring the successful solution of problems associated with the stable and sustainable development of the national economy in a difficultly predictable world can be modern decision-making tools.
Distortions in the policy of the Federal Reserve System of the United States adversely affect the economies of other countries of the world. Reuters Photos
SCENARIOS AND SITUATIONS IN THE ECONOMIC SPHERE
For a comprehensive and systematic study of the concept of controlled chaos in order to develop measures to counter the destructive mechanisms of its application against the Russian Federation, one of the tools is the model of controlled chaos. Such a model makes it possible to carry out a symbolic display of one or several development scenarios for the process of controlled chaos and mechanisms for undermining, with its help, the economy of the target state. The study of the model can be useful for forecasting and strategic planning of steps to ensure the economic security of the country, to develop measures to prevent chaos.
The model's reaction to internal and external influences is a response to the development of economic and political situations arising under the chosen scenario of controlled chaos. The objective function of the model of controlled chaos is to bring the economy of the target country to a predetermined level set by the authors of the script. In this case, the scenario can be understood as a “pre-prepared plan for the implementation of something.”
Under the economic situation it is proposed to understand the specific situation in the areas of production, distribution, exchange and consumption, the result of any stage of development in one of these areas or the run-up to more or less significant events in the economy as a whole.
The tasks of developing a scenario and analyzing situations in the economic sphere are reduced to the ability to distinguish the nature and danger of an arising situation, distinguish transient situations from hopeless, fatal, dead ends, determine the degree of political and economic risk, predict the results of the economic processes initiated by the model. target to resolve the situation.
The scenario of controlled chaos in the economic sphere includes a description of the possible beginning, development, completion and consequences of the actions of all participants: international organizations, individual states and their associations, key non-state actors. Such a set of participants of different nature allows the use of the concepts of “controlled chaos” of the concepts of “hybrid wars and hybrid threats”, which were discussed in a number of HBO publications.
The modeling of the developed scenario helps to identify those turning points when the time taken decision can still affect the course of events, the development of the economic situation in the right direction. The model is created on the basis of an analysis of the goals of subversive actions, their nature, the ratio of political, economic and other capabilities of the parties, the state of subjective and objective factors affecting the development of the situation. When developing a scenario, uncertainties inevitably arise, which in most cases make the very formulation of the initial conditions, which form the basis of the model's activity, quite difficult.
As a rule, in the general case, the scenario is based on a predominantly qualitative description of possible options for the development of the object under study under various combinations of certain conditions. He in expanded form shows possible options for future events for their further analysis and selection of the most real and favorable conditions. Along with this, the peculiarities of the economic sphere make it possible to widely use quantitative estimates.
The scenario is intended to answer two questions: how exactly, step by step, can one or another hypothetical situation arise and what opportunities exist at each stage for each actor in order to stop the process, change or accelerate its course?
Further consideration of the use of controlled chaos in the economic sphere seems appropriate using models as a method of system research.
The model must meet a number of requirements related to its creation and be adequate to the complex phenomenon, which is the national or global economy.
MODEL OF MANAGED CHAOS
With reference to the topic of this article, the model of controlled chaos in the economic sphere can be understood as an ideal image, analogous to the scenario of controlled chaos chosen by the customer, reproducing in a symbolic form a set of measures to strengthen and exploit criticality in the economic sphere of the target country. Such a model is a set of scientifically based system components necessary for analyzing the capabilities of the selected scenario to ensure the implementation of coordinated and interrelated actions to achieve the goal.
Note that when building a model of controlled chaos for a particular country, an important place is given to fixing the zones of intersection of interests of actors in the global economy - the centers of power. Researchers identify several modern centers of power (USA, EU, China, Russia), the intersection of the economic interests of which have a significant and sometimes decisive influence on the economy of a particular country. Moreover, such an influence is often destabilizing, which requires fixing in the model contradictory (crisis) points by types, groups and levels and possible options for resolving them.
In general, the model of controlled chaos in some areas critical to national security has been reviewed by the author in a number of publications.
The model is described using four system elements: function, input, output, processor. In relation to the topic of this article, the objective function of the model reveals the purpose of the model and involves the development of recommendations (control actions) aimed at increasing the level of conflict in the economic sphere of the target country, destabilizing the spheres of production, distribution, exchange and consumption. The function determines what should be achieved as a result of the functioning of the system, but does not indicate how this should be done.
The input of the model is affected by various factors - challenges, risks, hazards and threats that are formed within the framework of the scenario for the development of the situation and situations that arise when the model functions in accordance with the scenario.
At the output between the various levels of control model implements the task of information exchange, monitoring, control and feedback.
The processor, as an important system characteristic of the model, provides a comparison of the current state of economic spheres with a given level. In the process of control, data obtained at the input to the corresponding control actions at the output are transformed. An important function of the processor algorithm is continuous monitoring of the situation in the economic sphere and assessment of the influence of decisions on the situation. Channels of positive and negative feedback allow you to influence the dynamics of processes and give them the desired direction.
The model processor is the most important system characteristic and includes:
- an algorithm that determines the sequence of assessment of economic situations, the compliance of the development of the situation with the selected scenario, the development and implementation of solutions that ensure the achievement of goals and objectives;
- basic model resources: material, technical, financial, informational, etc .;
- a catalyst that includes a set of internal factors (key competencies of the model, its ability to respond quickly and adequately, adopted information analysis and decision-making mechanisms), which contribute to the transformation of external factors into control actions. Due to the impact on various sensitive points of the country's economy, the catalyst allows for the operational formatting of the economic situation, taking into account changes in the environmental characteristics;
- human resources, the quality of which is generally characterized by the professionalism and competence of staff, the quality of which is determined by the state of education in the country.
Other important system characteristics of the model are its ability to ensure adequate use of controlled chaos technologies in the economic sphere, influence the network of unions and partnerships of the target state, use the potential of international organizations and TNCs, and have a developed network of situation monitoring tools (monitoring system).
The functioning of the algorithm as an important system characteristic of the model in relation to the use of controlled chaos technologies in the course of color revolutions and hybrid wars is directly related to the management and decision-making functions and ensures the implementation of the scenario by performing a well-defined sequence of actions.
From the point of view of the attacking side, the use of modeling capabilities (including computer models) of the application of controlled chaos technologies within the framework of the complex impact on the vital areas of the target state opens up new opportunities for reformatting an object to the state needed by the organizers. The systemic nature of the impact, the complex application of a single concept of political, economic, ideological methods of influence, cybernetic attacks, the use of computers for the operational analysis of the development of the situation allows you to create an avalanche-like process of changes that can be carried out in a short time. Such a combination of technologies in creating the necessary concentration and intensity of impact when applied against the Russian Federation creates a significant threat to our country.
On the other hand, modeling creates significant opportunities for making management decisions on countering controlled chaos technologies.
CONCLUSIONS FOR MOSCOW
A hybrid war is being waged against Russia by the forces of the United States and its allies. The war strategy includes many aspects: information war, the main object of which is the cultural and ideological sphere, and one of the key goals is to discredit the country's top leadership; a set of economic sanctions; the coup d'état in Ukraine and the planned genocide of the Russian-speaking population of Donbass; attempts to undermine the country's positions in strategically important countries and regions, and many others.
The historical experience of modern Russia shows that neither politicians, nor the media, nor the financial institutions of the West can be trusted. There are enough examples of this - from the crafty policy of NATO expansion, aggression against Yugoslavia, US military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq and ending with a coup d'état in Ukraine and attempts to deprive Russia of the right to hold the 2018 World Cup.
Since the West is not going to reform the Bretton Woods system, whose links are the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the steps of the Russian leadership to establish the BRICS Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as an alternative to pro-Western financial institutions are timely.
To counter the model of controlled chaos used against Russia in the economic sphere, an elaborate system of ensuring national economic security and managing the development of the country is needed.
Using the capabilities of the model of controlled chaos in the economic sphere is the most important component of the American strategy, which in a certain part is based on the development of conflicts and threats of a new generation - hybrid wars and hybrid threats.
Countering attempts to harm the Russian economy should be carried out taking into account the complex external and internal threats and vulnerabilities of the economic security of the Russian Federation.
The external threat is associated with an escalation of international tension, which is accompanied by a sharp increase in the military-force component in the actions of the United States and NATO.
Neutralization of internal threats requires the introduction of significant adjustments to the national macroeconomic policy, the development of the industrial sectors of the economy, the defense industry, and the implementation of sound financial policies.
The use of the capabilities of modeling complex processes of world and national politics and economics can contribute to scientifically based and systematic study of vital problems and the development of solutions.
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