Deceptive pause of Putin: what are the next steps for Russia in Ukraine? ("The Brookings Institution", United States)
At the end of the summer, a deceptive pause was established in the Ukrainian crisis. At least in terms of covering relevant events. For many weeks now, the war in the Donbass has disappeared from the front pages. Although leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, are still looking for an acceptable formula for ending the war, it continues on the south-eastern outskirts, multiplying casualties.
The question of who fired first lost its relevance. The fact is that the war continues to puzzle and there’s no end in sight. Two insurgent "republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk are slowly turning into a Russian bastion, effectively separated from the rest of Ukraine. In the battle of East and West for the future of Ukraine, they are always ready to act as a pro-Russian weapons.
Warm up?
Ukraine no longer heads the list of priorities for American diplomats. They are, in an understandable way, absorbed in the sale of the Iranian nuclear deal to obstinate Congress. But, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, there are a number of high-ranking officials who also give Russia signals indicating that President Obama wants to turn the page and improve his cool relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We are already receiving such signals from the Americans,” Lavrov said, “although not very clear yet.” Will Russia be willing to improve relations? Russia, the foreign minister replied, will "constructively consider" any such opportunity.
Putin, it seems, looks at the matter more positively. So, last week, he told former American boxing champion Roy Jones Jr.: “At different times, we had very different kinds of relationships, but every time the highest interest of America and Russia requires it, we find the strength to build a relationship in the best possible way. " One of the translations of these words may be the following: now Putin wants to get out of the shadow of the Ukrainian crisis and restore better relations with the West.
But Obama and his top advisers, once deceived by Putin once, when he shocked everyone, capturing Crimea at the end of February 2014, did not want to relive this humiliation again. They understand that Putin, once a colonel of the KGB and nowadays modern Peter the Great (with a little Stalin), is still capable, if he wants, to plunge Europe and the world into a confrontation equivalent to a cold war. If he was not restrained, he could quickly gain control not only of newspaper headlines, but also global calculations of war and peace. Such is his influence.
Managed Instability
Although Russia is not the Soviet Union, it still remains the boss of Eastern Europe. When Russia sneezes, as we already understood, Ukraine can catch a serious cold. Currently, everything in and around Ukraine is reminiscent of what one journalist called “controlled instability.” Putin may bring the crisis to a possible resolution or stretch the war. Or, more simply, he can “freeze” her. The key question is: what does Putin have in mind? What are his plans, if we proceed from the fact that he has any and he does not improvise every day?
One line of reasoning, to a certain extent encouraging, is that at the moment Putin is full of problems, more than enough not to make him bored. Because of this, he is less inclined to chop off his shoulder and is more interested in reconciliation with the West. How else to explain him and Sergey Lavrov flirting with the US? Putin knows (or should know) that the Russian economy is close to chaos, partly caused by Western economic sanctions against Russia and falling oil prices. Official statistics show an 4,9 percent decline in gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2015, compared with the same quarter last year. Inflation this year could rise to 17 percent. Revenues undergo significant reductions, triggering mini-strikes in various parts of the country.
As for Ukraine, Putin’s position is hardly perfect, but still manageable. Now he owns the Crimea and controls two rebel areas in the south-east of Donbass. He knows that an economic collapse is possible in Ukraine, although some success has been achieved. The further it slides into the abyss, the more truly, as he believes, its chances of keeping Ukraine outside the western orbit, which has always been one of its main goals. Putin has all the means to throw Ukraine into further chaos at any time.
Another line of argumentation, far less comforting, is that Putin is simply waiting for the right moment to expand the war in Ukraine and, perhaps, elsewhere. The rebels of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, supported by Russian troops, recently engaged in non-stop maneuvers, possibly preparatory, to move to a strategic port in Mariupol, still in the hands of Ukraine. If Putin decided to strike, Western analysts believe that this will be a tough battle, but that ultimately the pro-Russian forces will win. In this case, the Poroshenko regime will be on the verge of collapse.
How far will the West go?
However, the scenario in which Putin can launch a sophisticated hybrid attack in the Baltics, starting with Estonia, where 24 is a percentage of the Russian population, poses a much greater threat to the West — especially for NATO. Since Estonia is a member of NATO, it can refer to and almost certainly refer to Article V, which says that an attack on one of the NATO members will be considered as an attack on all. Last year, during his visit to the Baltic States, President Obama promised that the United States would fulfill its obligations under Article V. In recent weeks, apparently concerned about the expansion of NATO’s maneuvers, Russian generals were trying to get away from them, denying what they had or intentions to invade the Baltic.
Is Putin really going that far? Are the United States, tired of endless wars in the Middle East, ready to roll up their sleeves and fight for Estonia? Both are unlikely. And now what? Unfortunately, most of the answer lies in Putin’s strategy, too vague and unpredictable for outsiders, and perhaps for himself, as well as for his advisers.
- Marvin Kalb
- http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/09/01-russia-ukraine-next-steps-kalb
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