Military Review

First US-China or World War III

33
First US-China or World War III



All wars in the world are fought for money. Yet, of course, there are religious or ethnic, however, in the end, they also turn out to be for money. More precisely, for the sake of control over economic income. Talking about democracy, world human rights and other universal human values ​​are only attempts to give this process the appearance of civilization. It was very democratic - to destroy the Libyan state, and now to lament about the difficult fate of the unfortunate illegal immigrants who were rushing from there to Europe. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier admitted that military operations in Iraq and Libya were a mistake. However, he did not say anything about the real causes of these operations. Let's try to do it instead.

When it comes to the claims of any country to world domination, it usually appears a picture of the US public holidays. Everywhere there are stars and stripes and beautifully marching columns of police and military dressed in full uniform. Everything should be "like in America." But few people think - why? Although the answer lies in any statistical reference for global investments.

It is generally accepted that every country needs foreign investment, and when it comes it is good. At the same time, it is forgotten that money is not brought in as a gift, but with the purpose of receiving subsequent income. After its alleged victory in the Cold War over 15 years (1993 − 2007), the total American accumulated direct investment in the economies of the world reached 4,6 trillion dollars. It is 19,1% of the total amount of all foreign investments on the planet. The second place is occupied by the UK (12%), the third - by France (8%). The geography of US investment covers 190 countries, including the UK ($ 426,4 billion), the Netherlands ($ 412,1 billion), Canada ($ 250,6 billion), Luxembourg ($ 144,2 billion), Germany ($ 100,6 billion), Australia ($ 106,4 billion ).

The EU accounts for 46,7% of all US investments, for Asia and the Middle East - 26,5%. What kind of income this money brings - no one can say for sure, but it is clearly higher than the rate on an ordinary bank deposit. The largest US investment funds in their reports show the average yield at the level of 23 − 28% per annum. Thus, the position of the world political and economic leader annually brings the United States net income of at least $ 1,28 trillion. This is about half of Russia's GDP for 2013 a year.

Not surprisingly, America is trying to maintain its current position at almost any cost. And it is not Russia or Islamic radicals who are threatening it. Looking at the super profits from cheap labor in Southeast Asia, the United States made two strategic mistakes that actually predetermined the outbreak of this war. The first was to transfer production to China. In fact, not only in it: American factories originated in Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore, but the largest number of them were built all the same in China. The second mistake was to reduce the volume of industry within the United States and transfer its economy to a post-industrial model, when only consumption and services become the basis of GDP.

It seemed that these successful decisions increased the amount of profit generated for the USA. In general, the way it was, only the amount of money increased not only in America. Today, the total money supply of the planet is $ 71,5 trillion, of which $ 70,4 trillion belongs to the economies of the largest countries 50. Including: China - $ 22 trillion, USA - about $ 12 trillion, Germany - $ 2,8 trillion, United Kingdom - $ 2,4 trillion, France - $ 1,9 trillion, Italy - $ 1,4 trillion, Russia - $ 1,1 trillion China actually has as much money as the United States and the European Union put together (a total of $ 0,58 trillion), although six years ago he had two times less.

Since the beginning of the 90-s, the Western world and, above all, the United States, under the slogan of the advantages of globalization, have interspersed the inter-state financial borders and created a single financial space. This they needed to facilitate the infusion of their money in the weak economy and simplify the derivation of their profits from them. But today it turned out that 31,25% of all money in the world is Chinese, and the American share barely exceeds 17%. And it also falls, while the Chinese - is growing. And growing rapidly, despite the slowdown in their economies. Only now, even slowing down, even if by the end of the year the increase turns out to be a little less than the declared 7%, it would still mean an increase of $ 1,23 trillion, which roughly corresponds to the creation of another economy the size of South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran Australia

No, American GDP, as it were, is also growing, only mainly on paper, through various frauds, including the incitement of war in different regions of the planet. And even in this case, the increase turns out to be several times smaller than the Chinese. Appearing on the foreign investment market quite recently, about six years ago, the Red Dragon has already invested about $ 113 billion in overseas projects. On the one hand, this is comparable to the amount that the US placed only in Germany, but the difference in the use of this money affects it . Americans prefer to buy stocks and make money on speculation, while the Chinese are investing primarily in the real sector, that is, they are building factories, roads, and ports. In Nicaragua, they began to construct a canal between the oceans. Because the real value of Chinese investment is much higher than the nominal value in money. At the moment, the Chinese economic influence in the Asia-Pacific Region and Africa is already comparable to the American one, and in some places surpasses it.

Moreover, if the United States is now most interested in returning its money to the domestic economy in order to maintain at least statistical growth in stock market indicators, then China faces a diametrically opposite task. Its economy is literally overflowing with money, requiring increased investment. Geographically, China, of course, is large and in five years it has managed to triple the capacity of the domestic market, but the industry it has created during this time is still significant, at least by one third, if not more, exceeding domestic demand.

According to the statement of the People’s Bank of China, over the coming 5 years, the Red Dragon intends to increase the size of its foreign investments to $ 500 billion. And the modernization and subsequent lease of Greek ports, estimated at $ 20-22 billion, can be brought to China at least $ 80 − 90 billion in profits over 20 years. And this is not the limit of Beijing’s investment opportunities. Judging by the degree of overheating demonstrated just before the Chinese stock exchanges, not really straining, China can increase the scale of its investments five times and reach the level of $ 3,5 trillion, which will bring it closer to the current position of the leader - the United States.

Washington has only three trumps against this threat. Firstly, by any means to destabilize the situation everywhere in the world where the Chinese could direct their investments. Therefore the Middle East is ablaze. Therefore, the zone of armed conflict in North and Central Africa is expanding. Therefore, the American army, which positions itself as the strongest in the world, is still not able to assemble and liquidate the militants of the Islamic state. Therefore, the United States indulges in the threat of the disintegration of Turkey and speak of the need for dividing Iraq. Anything to keep China from laying down its New Silk Road to Europe.

Secondly, to destabilize, ideally, to plunge into a civil war and bring Russia to the political and territorial collapse. The Chinese economy is certainly powerful, but it has an Achilles heel - a shortage of resources. First of all, many types of raw materials and energy carriers. In Russia, all this is in sufficient quantities. Moreover, the United States is equally considered the enemy, both in Beijing and in Moscow. For the sake of preventing Russian-Chinese rapprochement, Ukraine was thrown into the war furnace.

Third, over the next couple of years, Washington needs to end the economic conquest of Europe. Then $ 17 trillion of its own GDP plus $ 16 trillion of EU GDP will again raise America’s total economic volume to the height with which the Chinese can be confronted with chances of success. It is to achieve this goal that the United States so diligently part Europeans to sign a free transatlantic trade agreement.

On whom in this battle of titans to put, each country decides for itself, and this decision is not yet obvious. The European Union, for example, believes that it will be able to implement its own independent strategy. At the moment, the heavyweights only exchanged blows. The United States, by the hands of the IMF, refused Beijing to include the yuan in the special drawing rights basket - a special international payment instrument used by the IMF. At the moment, it is formed on 41,9% from the US dollar, on 37,4% - from the euro, on 9,4% - from the Japanese yen and on 11,3% - from the British pound. Officially said that the next revision of its composition will take place in 2016 year.

In turn, China devalued its currency and squeezed its stock market by 7%, which simultaneously reduced the scale of the financial bubble formed there, and at the same time evaporated more than a trillion dollars from the American economy, which led to a drop in all American key stock indices . And as quickly as they arose, the problems on the Chinese stock exchanges disappeared. That is, the People’s Bank of China showed that it controls the situation very well, and what happened there was hardly an accident. If necessary, this joke, he is quite able to repeat for an encore on the "requests of listeners."

Accordingly, all this hype with the war in Ukraine, Western anti-Russian point and response Russian food sanctions is nothing more than a great geopolitical show to hide the true object of attack from the United States. Of course, such games are never conducted for the sake of achieving only one goal. Solving related problems are also important. For example, in payment for possible sanctions losses to Europe, Ukraine was allegedly given to plunder (obvious distribution from the United States, since Russia will never give Ukraine back, but who is Europe's doctor?). Almost according to the "Greek" scenario.

Of course, new bases on Ukrainian territory would not be superfluous for NATO. And, of course, the proposed liquidation of the Russian Black Sea was a great bonus for the United States. fleet. Nowhere else could Russia provide him with at least acceptable basing conditions geographically. And even if it could, the new main base would inevitably be within the radius of a guaranteed missile strike from the territory of Crimea. So, in any situation, the Black Sea Fleet of Russia ceased to exist, which seriously reduced its geopolitical influence in the whole not only the Black Sea, but also the Middle East region.

But still, the geopolitical and economic blow to Russia is only a large-scale, but on the whole flank operation in a completely different war, in the First Financial War of the USA with China. Other options for action in Washington at the moment is simply not available. America turned out to be too connected with China economically. From there comes $ 450 billion in imports per year. And the fact that the trade balance remains consistently negative, best of all confirms that the United States cannot refuse it. Therefore, they act in such a roundabout way. And what is so big, then, as they say in America, - nothing personal, it's just a business. The US response to Beijing’s actions will be announced at a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System on the size of the discount rate in mid-September of this year. So wait just a little longer.
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33 comments
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  1. Ingvar 72
    Ingvar 72 1 September 2015 14: 19 New
    +1
    Dreams Dreams. dreams. Better say illusions. China is economically tied to imports in the EU and the US, the main markets there. Accordingly, China may rise, but it will not engage in open confrontation.
    1. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 1 September 2015 14: 40 New
      +12
      Quote: Ingvar 72
      but it won’t get involved in open confrontation.

      Like the USA. And then the idea arises that China and the states can agree. Who is their goal is not difficult to guess.
      1. Throw
        Throw 1 September 2015 18: 26 New
        +14
        The main thesis of the article is controversial.
        Money wars are not waged. Money in our time is an inconsistent entity that does not have a clear link to real goods and values. Few can be printed)

        Wars are waged for: influence, territory and resources.
        Therefore, Russia will never have allies, except for the Army, Navy and VKS. Here you cannot build illusions, turn your back and play "partnership" to the detriment of the strategic interests and security of the country.
      2. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 1 September 2015 19: 02 New
        +1
        Quote: Oleg147741
        Who is their goal is not difficult to guess.

        Obviously not Vietnam! drinks
  2. avvg
    avvg 1 September 2015 14: 20 New
    +2
    It will be very difficult for China to "give the teeth" to the United States, without Russia; the exact America is too tough for China without Russia.
    1. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 1 September 2015 14: 41 New
      +1
      Quote: avvg
      It will be very difficult for China to do the United States "by the teeth" without Russia,

      This is honestly.
    2. drago36
      drago36 1 September 2015 14: 47 New
      +1
      Do not worry so much if in America a film was made about this, then it will be so http://www.kinopoisk.ru/film/460524/vk/1/
      1. i80186
        i80186 1 September 2015 15: 08 New
        +1
        Quote: drago36
        Do not worry so much if in America a movie is made about this, then it will be so

        Yes, it's just the translation is not correct. The Red Dawn movie is called, a remake of the 1984 film.
        In 1984, the USSR attacked them, and in 2012 it was Korea, but not China at all. smile
  3. sa-zz
    sa-zz 1 September 2015 14: 21 New
    +10
    It is written well, intelligibly.
    The Kirdyk economy is not far off, but be careful with the Chinese, taking into account our interests. The main thing is to develop yourselves, but it will not work out to develop well until you start smearing your forehead for corruption with greens, and they will not send the forest for theft of state money.
    1. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 1 September 2015 14: 32 New
      +8
      Quote: sa-zz
      Amerov’s kirdyk economy is just around the corner,

      While world trade in resources is tied to the dollar, they are far from kirdyk (unfortunately). I repeat, the entire economy of China is the production of goods for import, and the main consumers of the Western world. Accordingly, it is not necessary to consider China as an absolute ally.
      Quote: sa-zz
      The main thing is to develop your own, but it will not work out to develop well until you start smearing your forehead for corruption with greenback, and they will not send the forest for theft of state money.

      You can’t argue with this, only the authorities are in no hurry to do this. hi
  4. kil 31
    kil 31 1 September 2015 14: 22 New
    +3
    . America was too economically connected with China. This is understandable, they do everything cheaply for them. Why a photo of Japan, this is a Japanese fight.
    1. avia1991
      avia1991 1 September 2015 15: 00 New
      +1
      Quote: Kil 31
      This is a Japanese fight.

      ..with the participation of the largest and heaviest wrestlers. This is exactly what they wanted to say, obviously: the battle of the world heavyweights!
  5. smart75
    smart75 1 September 2015 14: 23 New
    +2
    I wonder what will be agreed upon at the GDP and Xi parade?
    Probably about something good smile
  6. Basil50
    Basil50 1 September 2015 14: 24 New
    0
    I always suspected that * services * and * services * are the main goods produced by the USA.
  7. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 1 September 2015 14: 25 New
    0
    And what is so large-scale, as they say in America, is nothing personal, it's just business

    And the destabilization of the world situation, and the collapse of Russia, and the economic conquest of Europe. Nevertheless, America has set itself not feasible tasks. Do not tear the navel. But some successes have turned their heads, and this will not lead to good (for the United States).
  8. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 1 September 2015 14: 35 New
    -4
    It is hoped that the GSS is quiet in the Bose, without music and the third world war.
    As soon as the zelenofantik for all countries turns out to be just rubbish, the merzicosia turn into Somalia. Then we need seeds and beer!
    1. avia1991
      avia1991 1 September 2015 14: 58 New
      +1
      Quote: Volzhanin
      As soon as a green-wrapper for all countries turns out to be just rubbish

      ..there may be an embittered reckless Americanos who decides "after us - even a flood!" - and from inborn dirty tricks he will click on the button ..
      The ideal would be a stable balance of power, and economic balance. That's just to striped it does not reach!
  9. avia1991
    avia1991 1 September 2015 14: 48 New
    +1
    The Chinese are investing primarily in the real sector, that is, they are building factories, roads, and ports.
    Ehhh! If only we had invested in it! And then everything that appears is basically a "candle factory" ..
    In turn, China devalued its currency and squeezed its stock market by 7%, which, at the same time as using it for itself, reduced the scale of the financial bubble that formed there, and at the same time it vaporized more than a trillion dollars from the American economy,
    I’m not an economist, what’s there, but - there was a suspicion that the Chinas decided to "probe" the stability of the Amer market! Asians, one word: act tough, competently and confidently.
    And their behavior during the army games is not so alarming: they admire our soldiers too .. frankly, or what? And what’s in their head at the same time - go figure it out ?! On foot, our intelligence "ran"!
    In general, the "allies" with whom you feel like sitting with a cigarette on a powder keg wassat
  10. Magic archer
    Magic archer 1 September 2015 14: 59 New
    +3
    And personally, I was surprised by the number of investments in Luxembourg! Even more than in Germany! I wonder how the box opens? Can anyone enlighten for general development? wink
    1. lurk
      lurk 1 September 2015 15: 46 New
      +1
      In the XX century, L. became one of the largest world banking centers. Over 200 major banks of the world operate in the country. Since 1929, the government has been encouraging the registration of large multinational companies in the country, which is largely facilitated by the domestic liberal tax climate and offshore companies.
      from wiki
  11. Lecha57
    Lecha57 1 September 2015 15: 23 New
    -1
    China understands well that their writing is not for many people, therefore they do not claim to circulate their full national currency. And with the ruble it will be easier.
  12. 31rus
    31rus 1 September 2015 15: 36 New
    +6
    Alexander, you are wrong! It is Russia with resources and territory that is the main goal (as always), I agree with the financial situation in China, but now resources are already coming to the fore for both China and the whole world, it’s impossible to say which goal is more important Russia or China, it’s Russia’s resources and policies that do not allow the United States to dictate its terms, China is no less important but still not a primary goal, you correctly described here. Right now there is all possible (not military) concentration of force and attack on Russia, namely attempts directly drawn If the United States fetters us in the war (anywhere) in its actions against China, the same growth in Chinese power does not allow the United States, the United States acts in this region at its discretion, which distracts resources and forces from us. But you should not deceive yourself as soon as the Dragon picks up force will certainly not be his goal, but Russia again for resources
    1. The comment was deleted.
  13. Thunder
    Thunder 1 September 2015 15: 40 New
    0
    The geography of American investment covers 190 countries, including the UK ($ 426,4 billion), the Netherlands ($ 412,1 billion), Canada ($ 250,6 billion), Luxembourg ($ 144,2 billion), Germany ($ 100,6 billion), Australia ($ 106,4 billion).
    So in Germany there are only 100, and in Luxembourg 144 is interesting.
  14. afdjhbn67
    afdjhbn67 1 September 2015 15: 43 New
    0
    Quote: Thunder
    The geography of American investment covers 190 countries, including the UK ($ 426,4 billion), the Netherlands ($ 412,1 billion), Canada ($ 250,6 billion), Luxembourg ($ 144,2 billion), Germany ($ 100,6 billion), Australia ($ 106,4 billion).
    So in Germany there are only 100, and in Luxembourg 144 is interesting.

    Luxembourg banks are even more liberal than Swiss, so there they loot the loot
  15. Weyland
    Weyland 1 September 2015 16: 11 New
    +1
    Over the next 5 years, the Red Dragon intends to bring its foreign investment to $ 500 billion

    Why is he red? Yellow! Although in power and "red", but the country is still called Zhongguo - "Median state "(in Chinese symbolism, the center corresponds to yellow)
  16. den3080
    den3080 1 September 2015 16: 30 New
    +5
    The article is a sprinkling plus. For a long time I have not read such a capacious text that was well understood by the author and understood by a simple layman.
    Amerov’s economy kirdyk just around the corner ...

    My kament to the above kament wink :
    There will be no kirdyk. This is unprofitable for anyone, including Russia.
    Let me explain: the collapse (destruction) of such a consumer market as the United States will defeat the entire world economy and drag everyone along, including China.
    To understand the difference between the United States and, for example, Russia, you can compare at least the annual volume of car sales.
    The difference is about 6-7 times in favor of the United States (despite the fact that the population of the Russian Federation is only 2-2,2 times smaller) and so on most consumer positions.

    If the United States falls apart and stops buying, consuming and eating at the throat, then most of the world's industrial leaders (both countries and concerns) will simply close, banks will burst, and so on.
    Just because the average Indian, for example, doesn’t eat so much, for example, the Haitian Negro has no money to buy a new iPhone every six months.

    So, shamanic commands about the US soon kirdyk can be pleasant for someone and warm their souls, but they are unrealistic both in the near foreseeable future (5-10 years) and in the medium term (10-30 years).
    1. shinobi
      shinobi 1 September 2015 17: 02 New
      -3
      America comes kirdyk for purely internal reasons. The rest is just a rebound to those around it. There will be no US market, more goods will come to others. The USA is not the navel of the land that it seems and wants to be.
      1. CTEPX
        CTEPX 2 September 2015 06: 02 New
        0
        Quote: shinobi
        There will be no US market, more products will come to others.

        The USA is just the tip of the Anglo-Saxon iceberg. And melting - the whole iceberg. Changing the structure of consumption of the "golden billion" without shocks (war) is impossible)). Anglo-Saxons have gone too far. The surge (TMV), unfortunately, is inevitable, the question is about the timing and involved theater of operations.
    2. sledgehammer
      sledgehammer 1 September 2015 20: 31 New
      -1
      Usa consumes too many resources per capita. Do they like powerful cars with 4-7 liter engines, big houses, a lot of food, etc., agree this is not fair? They suck out all the resources from other countries with the help of candy wrappers. Therefore, we need to reduce their consumption otherwise, after 20-30 years, they will definitely try to attack Russia.
  17. GraveBezKresta
    GraveBezKresta 1 September 2015 18: 02 New
    +4
    Chinas openly talk about a future war with Russia.
    Chinas openly talk about claims to the territory of the Far East and Siberia.
    Chinasians take hundreds of thousands of hectares in Transbaikalia for almost unlimited use.
    It may be enough to feed yourself with fairy tales about the future war of the Chinese with the USA. It may be worth recognizing that the Chinayases have already crept into the territory of Russia and this process is growing. And then with all these words of Putin, “God forbid,” the price will be worthless. By the way, before that for 14 years, Putin was hanging noodles on our ears that the United States is our strategic partner. Now hangs another noodle that China is our strategic partner.
    1. 31rus
      31rus 1 September 2015 19: 30 New
      0
      Now China is really, the only strategic partner, while our goals converge, but that main distance and it is Chinese money that is not a threat to the United States, but the Chinese are ready to invest in almost everything in our economy, and here the ambush and the USA will be our ally (as China is now ) Maybe we can handle it ourselves, but we can’t avoid serious friction (I think that's why Putin let the Chinese in as little as possible)
      1. CTEPX
        CTEPX 2 September 2015 06: 08 New
        0
        Quote: 31rus
        it is Chinese money that is not a threat to the United States, but to us

        The only right investment from China is the investment of modern technology previously received by China from the West. Resources for technology.
  18. shelva
    shelva 1 September 2015 21: 03 New
    +1
    If there is a lot of "stench" from the Americans, then China is a real threat. Even without war, by “silent glanders”, by assimilation, they are paving their way to world domination. The main thing is not to forget that Russia has no friends either in the West or in the East. But there may be temporary strategic partners.
    1. 31rus
      31rus 1 September 2015 21: 54 New
      +1
      Yes, that’s how it is today, “partners”, tomorrow bloody enemies, if Russia manages to find its own path, then not China, not the USA will be able to do anything, just minor dirty tricks, I would like to see my country like this in this life, and not a bunch of oligarchs who can only fill their pockets without caring not about Russia, not about the people, but who gave all the benefits to this country and this people, that’s why the distance is important with any "partner", any enemy must be defeated, before the battle itself, all this really with our resources with our people
  19. Selevc
    Selevc 2 September 2015 09: 59 New
    0
    How strange it is - America, this long-standing world fighter against communism, turns out to be able to cooperate perfectly with the Communists !!! And we do not hear angry statements from the UN rostrum about the bloodthirsty red Chinese regime, and the crusade is somehow not announced and the legion of Demolyad human rights defenders does not yell about the Chinese threat !!!
    In general, the matter is not in the state system, but in the matter of money as always ... And verily, their deeds speak best of all about them and their hypocrisy is unlimited !!!
    But the main confrontation between China and the United States is yet to come ... The duel of the red dragon with the white eagle in the international arena is inevitable ...