Sun Novorossia after the conclusion of the "Minsk-2" are in strategic defense, it is dictated by both military and political circumstances. You can push the junta Bandera from Novorossiysk capitals, but the price will be too high, and not the fact that the shelling will be able to stop. The question of an attack on Kiev in general is not worth it. But most importantly, Moscow supports the Minsk Truce, with all its meanness, based on the circumstances of the global confrontation with Washington. Yet this gives some certainty to Donetsk and Lugansk.
The Kiev junta has a more interesting position, defined by a comma in the title of the article. Ukronatsisty, along with Washington in the person of US Vice President Biden, are demanding to attack, otherwise threatening Poroshenko with a new coup d'etat. Remains of common sense, as well as Europe, require to observe the Minsk truce, which means a political retreat for the junta, the consequences of which are hidden in the fog, but also unlikely inspire optimism in Kiev.
Meanwhile, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Nazi Guards, like "Azov", Avakov went on vacation, and the APU began to move in the "ATO" zone. But ... if this is a preparation for an attack on Donetsk, then it is strange to let the commander of the most motivated part of the advancing army go on vacation.
I would venture to suggest that a large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is hardly possible at all. Of course, ukroarmiya prepared, and the sun of New Russia what were you doing?
There is no longer any obvious superiority among Bandera, and to storm the prepared defense in this case is recklessness, for which you can pay with new “boilers”. Not to mention the big losses. There is also no serious supply weapons from the United States, like the anti-tank Javelins, and in general, NATO poorly helps Bandera, in the second echelon it is not yet visible, and to go on the offensive in this case, and even near the borders of Russia, just to many "boilers" alike.
But ... artillery shelling became more violent, separate offensive operations are being carried out, and with the participation of the Nazi battalions, as under Novolaspa. It seems that Poroshenko wants to dispose of some formation of the "Right Sector" in this way, and at the same time, take off with offensive operations the charges of the Nazis, who openly talk about his betrayal and surrender to the positions of Moscow.
The dream of all candidates for dictators is a small victorious war, now in the Donbas is impossible. But the commander-in-chief Poroshenko can in fact dream of a small military success, in peak Yarosh, Biletsky and Mosiychuk, on the Independence Day of August 24? This may also be the cause of today's military aggravation in the junta.
On the other hand, the internal political situation requires Poroshenko to attack on internal fronts. The paradox of the situation is that he needs to suppress overt Nazis, like Yarosh, Biletsky and Mosiychuk, who openly challenged him.
If the president of Banderia does not do this before the October 25 elections, the real “Bandera’s” will declare him “fake” and a traitor in the elections, and they can wipe out the president himself under the guise of election battles. That is, the fate of Poroshenko, and the future prospects of the Kiev regime, will be determined in the very near future, at the end of August, September and October, not in the Donbas, but in Kiev.
And Poroshenko is preparing for this, as it can. In addition to the planned “small military success,” the issue of imposing martial law in the country is being considered. From a military point of view, the war in the Donbas, it does not give anything, since the ATO has long been introduced. But to suppress riots in Kiev and the surrounding regions, the introduction of martial law is the very thing!
Lyashko, and active members of his Radical party like Mosiychuk, reasonably suspect that Poroshenko is seeking to establish a military dictatorship, and protest because she will be directed against them. Poroshenko, after all, in front of witnesses promised to plant Lyashko. And it will land, if it introduces martial law in the country. This will be the “military dictatorship” in at least some positive sense.
In addition to Lyashko, the “military dictatorship” will give Poroshenko a chance to suppress the already declared revolt of the Nazi battalions of the Right Sector and Azov. It’s hard to say how this will end, and Moscow is preparing for different options. For example, the Ukrainian government in exile was created - the LCP led by Oleinik and Azarov. It is clear that it is being prepared not for Donetsk, but for Kiev, in case of unforeseen developments in the mothers of Russian cities.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said recently: “Everything that Kiev is now proposing and doing is supposedly aimed at splitting the country. Either strangle the DPR and LPR, or even throw them out of the Ukrainian state. The economic blockade, non-payment of payments, the announcement that they will not talk to those who signed the Minsk agreements are aimed at this. ”
However, the creation of the LCP of Oleynik-Azarov says that Moscow sees the continuation of the split of the former Ukraine already to Kiev.
No offensive retreat
- Victor Kamenev