After Castro. How does Cuba remain an island of freedom
Rumors about the death of Fidel Castro Rus’s flooded the world’s press for more than half a century — ever since the United States of America after failing several attempts to organize landings from Cuban émigrés and a draw (it was, however, given out for the victory of MUH over the USSR: we have our own rockets from Cuba taken out openly, and their concessions - the removal of missiles from Italy and Turkey, a guarantee of refusing invasions or supporting foreign invasions of Cuba - our propagandists did not advertise at their request) in the Caribbean crisis (its acute phase passed 1962.10.22 – 28) went to the organization AI attempts to assassinate the leader of the Cuban Revolution. Alas, sooner or later, another rumor will be justified: a person born 1926.08.13 can hardly hope to survive until the complete victory of medicine over death. No wonder he still 2008.02.24 gave his brother Raul Modesto the posts of head of state, government and armed forces, and 2011.04.19 - and the role of head of the Communist Party of Cuba. But Raul Modesto Angelewicz Castro Ruz, born 1931.06.03, is also not forever. Moreover, close to the brothers in age and their few still living associates in the organization of hostilities against the troops of Fulgencio Belisarovich Batista-i-Zaldivara (1901.01.16 – 1973.08.06) and the subsequent construction of socialism on the island. Sooner or later, this whole generation of heroic fighters will leave not only the political scene, but also our entire mortal and turbulent world.
Our own extensive experience indicates how much in the fate of a country depends on its leaders. Even our history most often divided into epochs by the names of heads of state. They are treated differently, depending on political views, but the fact of a cardinal change of domestic and foreign policy with every leader is obvious to everyone. And in many other countries, the division of history into epochs of government is a customary norm: until recently, even the official calendar, for example, in Japan began anew with each emperor. It is natural to expect that a new political era will begin in Cuba after the generation of the revolutionaries leaves.
The United States of America is not just waiting for a change in the course of the Island of Freedom, but is also actively preparing it: the official headquarters of the future coup d'état has opened in Havana (there is a sad joke throughout Latin America: "A coup is impossible in the US? Because there is no US embassy there") . Will there be forces in Cuba that are ready to participate in the next American crime?
During the American economic blockade, Cuba was in many ways pretty impoverished. For example, a significant part of the island’s fleet is still made up of cars imported from the MUH back in the times of Batista, before 1959.01.01. Industrial enterprises created with the help of the USSR decayed after its collapse: the Russian Federation in dashing 1990, she herself barely survived - she had no time for cooperation with her former overseas ally (and the political views of the new Russian leadership did not favor the support of MHA opponents). The former main source of freely convertible currency - public and gambling houses - is remembered by the more tender, the fewer people who remember what mockery Cubans were entertained by American visitors of these houses in the pauses between bedding and card games (and during these pleasures they also belonged to local staff As to the inventory, it is easy and cheaply replaced in process of wear). In short, the ground for a coup seems to be there. It would seem that on it a thirst for a return under the wing of the owner, after the prescription of years seemingly kind, can rapidly grow.
In a classic joke, a zoo visitor, after examining a sign with the official daily ration of an elephant, asked in amazement: “And he will eat it all?” The zoo servant replied: “Eat something, but who will give it to him?” I suppose the people of Cuba will not let it eat neither the MUH politicians nor their local allies.
Along with all the economic turmoil (and even with fatigue from political propaganda of uniform content), the Cubans not only feel, but also realize many of the undoubted achievements of their country on the path chosen by 1951.01.01. For example, Cuban medicine is generally recognized as the best in all of Latin America (it even brings a lot of money to the whole country: those from whom the financial situation and / or political position does not allow treatment in the MUH) go there from all over the continent. Education is also first-class - and this manifests itself in the many contacts of the islanders with the inhabitants of the mainland, and of the neighboring islands. The memory of illnesses and ignorance of the colonial era has not yet vanished.
A significant part of the economic niches vacated by the MUH has long been occupied by other partners. For example, Venezuela has been supplying oil to Cuba since the times when these supplies were officially counted as Soviet: it’s much easier not to drive tankers across the ocean, but to give Venezuelan oil to partners of the USSR in Latin America and the Soviet to partners of Venezuela in the Old World. Cuba pays Venezuela not with money, but with goods — first of all, sugar — and services, mainly medical. As new Latin American countries emerge from Cuba, under the pressure of MUH, other counterparties appear nearby - not as developed as MUH, but demanding more than MUH that Cuba can create. Finally, in recent years, China has become increasingly interested in the region. He needs, above all, sources of raw materials independent of MUH - and in Cuba, considerable deposits of acutely deficient non-ferrous metals (Cuba paid for Soviet goods and services with them, not only with sugar and tobacco). All these areas of cooperation can give Cuba much more than its return to the MUH, even according to the most optimistic estimates. And there are enough people in the country who can calculate this.
Yes, and China has learned no less convincingly than the MUH and the USSR to explain where the fish is deeper and the person is better. And after a series of coups and civil wars in Africa — just in countries where China has already entered into long-term contracts and is preparing to create new mining enterprises — Chinese politicians are undoubtedly looking for means of persuading those who can become agents of Chinese or anti-Chinese influence.
Finally, in the field of view of Cubans - numerous neighboring islands of the Caribbean. Their inhabitants live mostly poor, even by Cuban standards. It is unlikely that the example of the Dominican Republic, Jamaica or even the Bahamas (where 6 / 10 workers are busy serving tourists, which has turned into AIDS for every 30 citizen) can inspire a significant proportion of Cuban citizens to change the state structure.
True, the recent liberalization of the Cuban economy can give rise to considerable illusions. But, judging by our experience, enough time has passed since then, so that citizens can appreciate not only the advantages, but also the disadvantages of the acquired economic freedom. And they would hardly wish to expand it without additional insurance measures.
It is possible that a considerable part of my optimism is generated by the fact that I am familiar with Cuba not by personal impression, but only by publicly available publications. On the other hand, my long experience as an analyst indicates that not everything can be understood on the spot, either: “it can be seen from a distance”. Therefore, I hope that my assessment of the sanity of the people of Cuba is not too far from reality. And I believe: the departure of the generation that made the former colony the Island of Freedom will not turn into its new enslavement.
Our own extensive experience indicates how much in the fate of a country depends on its leaders. Even our history most often divided into epochs by the names of heads of state. They are treated differently, depending on political views, but the fact of a cardinal change of domestic and foreign policy with every leader is obvious to everyone. And in many other countries, the division of history into epochs of government is a customary norm: until recently, even the official calendar, for example, in Japan began anew with each emperor. It is natural to expect that a new political era will begin in Cuba after the generation of the revolutionaries leaves.
The United States of America is not just waiting for a change in the course of the Island of Freedom, but is also actively preparing it: the official headquarters of the future coup d'état has opened in Havana (there is a sad joke throughout Latin America: "A coup is impossible in the US? Because there is no US embassy there") . Will there be forces in Cuba that are ready to participate in the next American crime?
During the American economic blockade, Cuba was in many ways pretty impoverished. For example, a significant part of the island’s fleet is still made up of cars imported from the MUH back in the times of Batista, before 1959.01.01. Industrial enterprises created with the help of the USSR decayed after its collapse: the Russian Federation in dashing 1990, she herself barely survived - she had no time for cooperation with her former overseas ally (and the political views of the new Russian leadership did not favor the support of MHA opponents). The former main source of freely convertible currency - public and gambling houses - is remembered by the more tender, the fewer people who remember what mockery Cubans were entertained by American visitors of these houses in the pauses between bedding and card games (and during these pleasures they also belonged to local staff As to the inventory, it is easy and cheaply replaced in process of wear). In short, the ground for a coup seems to be there. It would seem that on it a thirst for a return under the wing of the owner, after the prescription of years seemingly kind, can rapidly grow.
In a classic joke, a zoo visitor, after examining a sign with the official daily ration of an elephant, asked in amazement: “And he will eat it all?” The zoo servant replied: “Eat something, but who will give it to him?” I suppose the people of Cuba will not let it eat neither the MUH politicians nor their local allies.
Along with all the economic turmoil (and even with fatigue from political propaganda of uniform content), the Cubans not only feel, but also realize many of the undoubted achievements of their country on the path chosen by 1951.01.01. For example, Cuban medicine is generally recognized as the best in all of Latin America (it even brings a lot of money to the whole country: those from whom the financial situation and / or political position does not allow treatment in the MUH) go there from all over the continent. Education is also first-class - and this manifests itself in the many contacts of the islanders with the inhabitants of the mainland, and of the neighboring islands. The memory of illnesses and ignorance of the colonial era has not yet vanished.
A significant part of the economic niches vacated by the MUH has long been occupied by other partners. For example, Venezuela has been supplying oil to Cuba since the times when these supplies were officially counted as Soviet: it’s much easier not to drive tankers across the ocean, but to give Venezuelan oil to partners of the USSR in Latin America and the Soviet to partners of Venezuela in the Old World. Cuba pays Venezuela not with money, but with goods — first of all, sugar — and services, mainly medical. As new Latin American countries emerge from Cuba, under the pressure of MUH, other counterparties appear nearby - not as developed as MUH, but demanding more than MUH that Cuba can create. Finally, in recent years, China has become increasingly interested in the region. He needs, above all, sources of raw materials independent of MUH - and in Cuba, considerable deposits of acutely deficient non-ferrous metals (Cuba paid for Soviet goods and services with them, not only with sugar and tobacco). All these areas of cooperation can give Cuba much more than its return to the MUH, even according to the most optimistic estimates. And there are enough people in the country who can calculate this.
Yes, and China has learned no less convincingly than the MUH and the USSR to explain where the fish is deeper and the person is better. And after a series of coups and civil wars in Africa — just in countries where China has already entered into long-term contracts and is preparing to create new mining enterprises — Chinese politicians are undoubtedly looking for means of persuading those who can become agents of Chinese or anti-Chinese influence.
Finally, in the field of view of Cubans - numerous neighboring islands of the Caribbean. Their inhabitants live mostly poor, even by Cuban standards. It is unlikely that the example of the Dominican Republic, Jamaica or even the Bahamas (where 6 / 10 workers are busy serving tourists, which has turned into AIDS for every 30 citizen) can inspire a significant proportion of Cuban citizens to change the state structure.
True, the recent liberalization of the Cuban economy can give rise to considerable illusions. But, judging by our experience, enough time has passed since then, so that citizens can appreciate not only the advantages, but also the disadvantages of the acquired economic freedom. And they would hardly wish to expand it without additional insurance measures.
It is possible that a considerable part of my optimism is generated by the fact that I am familiar with Cuba not by personal impression, but only by publicly available publications. On the other hand, my long experience as an analyst indicates that not everything can be understood on the spot, either: “it can be seen from a distance”. Therefore, I hope that my assessment of the sanity of the people of Cuba is not too far from reality. And I believe: the departure of the generation that made the former colony the Island of Freedom will not turn into its new enslavement.
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