Military Review

Empire Phantom Pains

With each passing week, more and more alarming talk arises in the media about Turkey’s possible invasion of northern Syria. The formal reason for the invasion is the fight against the Islamic State. The actual one is the neutralization of the Kurdish threat, and possibly a blow to the positions of Bashar al-Assad’s troops. Turkish President Recep Erdogan has already stated that Turkey will not allow the creation of a Kurdish state in neighboring territories. However, while Tanks have not crossed the border, Erdogan still has a field for maneuver. In the end, the invasion of Syria was expected last summer. Not the fact that it will take place now.

Literally in these hours, Turkey requires full support from NATO, citing the famous 4 article of the treaty. Even with the second largest army in the Alliance after the United States, the former empire is not sure of the success of the campaign, and there are grounds for that. Kurdish armed forces in Turkey have already responded to the bombing of their tribesmen by firing at police and sabotage. The border with Syria is actually a courtyard, and soon calibers and heavier ones may sound in those places. In order to avoid such a development of events, as well as to stop the possibility of creating a Kurdish state in the south, Ankara plans to deploy troops at least a hundred kilometers into Syrian territory. However, the Turkish strategists are well aware of what reception the invading army is waiting for, because for some reason they require help from the allies, who, being aware of everything, are in no hurry to help.

However, Erdogan doesn’t have much choice either. Tens of thousands of refugees and militant camps have already heated the situation in the border areas of Turkey to the limit. So the creation of a buffer from a neighbor, with the transfer of all problem objects to it, looks like a logical decision. Yes, and populism with nationalism has not been canceled.

Turkey wants expansion. The accession of Kars and the occupation of Northern Cyprus are glorious, but past affairs, long forgotten. The ruling elite needs more topical achievements and it is only a matter of choosing the direction of expansion. Say, 2004, against the background of the crisis of the Georgian state, the Turkish ambassador to Azerbaijan, Unal Chevikoz, explicitly stated that his country has the right to send troops to Adjara. But then there was no reason, and Russia was strongly opposed.

And now Syria. The demonstration of power, a beautiful picture on TV, the ratings of power are growing, the patriotic public is satisfied. True, ratings can crawl in the opposite direction, when it turns out that the occupation of such a problem area is expensive, dangerous, and frankly ungrateful. And to withdraw troops at all times was an order of magnitude more difficult than to enter them. Turkey returns to the land, from where it has once been expelled, and where absolutely everyone is not happy about it, regardless of nationality or religion. During a possible occupation, armed excesses are inevitable, which will only increase the hatred of the population towards the conquerors.

By the stated goal (the fight against the IG) what is happening in general will have a very remote relationship. The ruling Justice and Development Party in Turkey is largely responsible for the growth of Islamism in the region.

In general, the Turks now can only add their own couple of strokes to the overall picture of chaos. The modern borders of the Middle East were for the most part drawn from the results of the First World War. As in Europe (where the second major war began as a result precisely because of border disputes), they drew a political map casually, approximately and provocatively. The result came out quite predictable: eternal discord. Only if before Britain had the role of administering the frontier, then the United States would conduct the process on the basis of its own ideas.

It is beneficial for the Americans that capricious Ankara embarked on a war on frankly uncontrollable territory, wasting resources on it - and eventually came to surrender to the doorstep of the White House. So, in the first stage, Turkish aggression will be approved and even directly pushed to take a suicidal step. But most of all, of course, the Syrian people and the Syrian state, which is literally being pulled apart, will lose from what is happening.

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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 30 July 2015 07: 39
    Erdogan, began to dig his own grave ..
    1. Mark Alekseevich
      Mark Alekseevich 30 July 2015 07: 55
      I want to offer audio material about the Middle East.

      Turkish operation saved the "Islamic State" (mp3 40.1 Mb)
      1. hedgehog in the fog
        hedgehog in the fog 30 July 2015 10: 04
        and what did you want, dear reasoners? Turkey has been a great empire for centuries, which everyone except Russia was afraid of, you cannot hide genes and will not strangle them with any democracy and tolerance .. sad
    2. Will
      Will 30 July 2015 12: 33
      The USA has always welcomed stupidity! At least it alerted at least some of their "partners" ...
    3. Talgat
      Talgat 31 July 2015 00: 39
      Quote: parusnik
      Erdogan, began to dig his own grave ..

      But I believe that the Turks are not fools and will not "dig their own grave"

      The invasion of Syria and a direct war against Bashar al-Assad is in fact a WAR WITH IRAN, and plus confrontation with Russia, with China, difficulties with TURKSOY - where half is the republic of the Russian Federation and half is Kazakhstan with the Turkmen - who cooperate with Iran, and KZ in general " put on Iran "having built a railway together and hoping to increase the turnover at times
      But Iran, in itself and without Russia and China, is a tough nut - and the Turks will not break their teeth for the glory of Amer’s democracy
  2. Shmel-pchel
    Shmel-pchel 30 July 2015 07: 44
    In the case of aggression, Turkey will also be torn to pieces and no one will help it.
    1. gaura
      gaura 30 July 2015 09: 14
      Who will tear it apart? Russia or what? In addition, Turkey has the second largest army in NATO
      1. Oper6300
        Oper6300 30 July 2015 11: 02
        An army of shepherds and stolen merchants? We are all trembling.
      2. baron.nn
        baron.nn 30 July 2015 13: 51
        At all times, the Russian army drove them like filthy dogs. The article says that the Kurds and Syrians will meet them in such a way that it will not seem enough !!! The Turkish army is quite powerful, but the experience of eastern Ukraine shows that strength is not in power ... Do not forget about such a thing as "unacceptable losses" ... And unacceptable losses are relevant only for the attacker ... Those who defend themselves are left to stand up end, until victory !!!
      3. Dry_T-50
        Dry_T-50 30 July 2015 15: 26
        Quote: gaura
        Who will tear it apart? Russia or what? In addition, Turkey has the second largest army in NATO

        Maybe Russia, Russia’s second powerful army in the world
      4. Talgat
        Talgat 31 July 2015 00: 43
        Quote: gaura
        Who will tear it apart? Russia or what?

        No, of course not the Russian Federation - although the Russian Federation will be unhappy like China and they will definitely establish a complete supply of Iran with everything necessary

        Iran becomes the main adversary in the event of aggression in Syria - they are not "a gift" in themselves and Turkey cannot cope with it alone - plus Iran will receive all possible assistance from the CSTO and China through the new launched railway with KZ
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Oper6300
      Oper6300 30 July 2015 11: 03
      It would be good to restore the Bosporus Kingdom.
  3. Vladimir1960
    Vladimir1960 30 July 2015 10: 39
    Turkey became confused in its aspirations and plans. It became a subject, an object, when it got in touch with NATO.
    1. Andruxax
      Andruxax 30 July 2015 23: 54
      Quote: Vladimir1960
      Turkey became confused in its aspirations and plans. It became a subject, an object, when it got in touch with NATO.

      Turkey in NATO is as formal as Ukraine in the CIS.
  4. Belousov
    Belousov 30 July 2015 12: 00
    Erdogan wants a small victorious war? It is unlikely that he will get what he wants. But the escalation of the conflict and an open confrontation with the Kurds - completely. And it comes back to him many more times ...
  5. Andruxax
    Andruxax 30 July 2015 23: 53
    The more strong regional powers - the better, since they almost always have problems with the filthy west.
  6. Andrei946
    Andrei946 1 August 2015 09: 29
    You have to understand that the Turkish elite is split. One part of it looks into the mouths of local elites in the United States, for them the sun rises in Washington, and the other part of the elite works to strengthen Turkey as a state as they understand it. And a blow to the Kurds is beneficial to that part of the elite that looks back at Washington. And Erdogan is building a new Ottoman Empire. In the whole situation, it is necessary to understand that the American elites need a full-scale war. Therefore, they are trying to kindle a fire of heat anywhere in the world.