Viennese illusions. Will the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program create a new political landscape?
The agreement on Iran’s nuclear program has become a major international event of recent months. Experts are wondering what will bring the world the long-awaited contract. The range of forecasts is extremely wide: from the transformation of Tehran into a new US ally to a large-scale war in the Middle East. Judging by the comments, there are more optimists, but there are not so many real reasons for optimism. The West sees Iran as an enemy, and the agreement reached in Vienna is only a temporary pause.
Nuclear blackmail
The world has been following the ups and downs of the Iranian nuclear program for more than ten years. Back in 2002 already in the year, President George W. Bush loudly carried the Islamic Republic to the “axis of evil” and accused Tehran of seeking nuclear power. weapon. The political background of the accusation was already obvious then and did not disappear anywhere in the following years. Iran never tired of repeating the purely peaceful nature of its nuclear program. This was confirmed by non-engaged experts. But the truth in this case was only a hindrance to the tasks set by Washington and its allies - to weaken the country, proceeding in its own, independent way.
The nuclear program, therefore, was only a pretext for fighting Iran. If this country were a loyal ally of the United States, Washington, quite possibly, would have closed its eyes to this, as it closed them on Israel’s nuclear developments - by the way, not at all peaceful! Jerusalem has at least two hundred nuclear charges, but was never going to put its program under international control. Similarly, the West "does not notice" the regularly-sounding statements of members of the Saudi royal family about their intention to acquire nuclear weapons soon and Riyadh’s active negotiations with South Korea, France and other countries on the creation of an atomic industry, the peaceful nature of which is already very doubtful .
Nonetheless, putting on the garment of truth lies about the "Iranian bomb" allowed Washington to inflict a number of tangible blows on Tehran. Despite the most severe sanctions, including international sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, Iran survived. However, it was not possible to talk about development, which allows to use all the potential of the country. Suffice it to say that the export of Iranian oil has fallen by half, the production of automobiles has fallen by half. This forced the country's authorities to accept concessions. In 2013, Iran began negotiations with a “six” of international mediators (permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany).
However, the goodwill of the Islamic Republic ran into the cynical position of the West, who decided to use negotiations to maximize the weakening of an undesirable state. Iran was given new conditions, sometimes with extremely remote relations to the nuclear program. For example, Washington demanded that Tehran abandon the missile program, and also insisted on admitting "international experts" to any military and civilian objects whose activities could be "in any form associated with a nuclear program." At the same time, Iran could receive a warning about verification in just two hours ...
It is not surprising that the negotiations were stretched for almost two years, and deadlines - the deadlines for concluding an agreement - were postponed many times. By this summer, many no longer believed that agreement was possible at all: too great and fundamental were the differences. But a compromise was still found. On the morning of July 15, members of delegations meeting at the prestigious Vienna Hotel Palais Coburg announced the conclusion of a long-awaited agreement.
Ploy
The 100-page document entitled “Joint Integrated Action Plan” provides for a significant reduction of the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of a significant part of the sanctions. In particular, the country undertakes to reduce uranium reserves from the current 10 tons to 300 kg and not to enrich it above the level of 3,67 percent. The number of centrifuges will also decrease significantly - from 19 to 6 thousands. This regime will operate for eight years, after which some indulgences are promised to Iran, which, however, do not go beyond the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
Much longer, 25 years, is given to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to closely monitor Iranian developments in this area. Other "Cerberus" will follow Iran. A special commission is created under the UN Security Council, whose task is to monitor the implementation of the agreement. In the event that the IAEA or any country in the «six’ intermediaries have suspicions of the “unclean game” of Tehran, the Security Council may decide on the renewal of anti-Iranian sanctions for 65 days.
As you can see, the framework for Iran is very rigid. Can not be said about the other side of the negotiations. Contrary to Tehran’s initial demand for the immediate and complete lifting of sanctions immediately after the conclusion of an agreement, the procedure for lifting them will be long and complicated. First, the Iranian side must convince the IAEA of the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program (these inspections take three months). Then the agreement must be ratified by all participants in the negotiations and approved by the UN Security Council. And not in one "sitting", but at six! That is exactly how many of their anti-Iran resolutions this body should cancel. And only after that, not earlier than the beginning of the next year, will the unilateral sanctions of the European Union and the USA be lifted.
And that's not all. Barack Obama has already said that the sanctions imposed for Iran’s violations of human rights will remain in place. In addition, the arms embargo will continue for another five years, and the ban on the supply of missile technology to Tehran will last eight years. The potential left by the loopholes - the ability to sell weapons to Iran after the UN Security Council negotiates - should not be exaggerated: the United States and its allies will do everything to prevent this possibility.
One enumeration of the terms of the agreement suggests that the agreement concluded in Vienna is stitched “on a live thread” and can crumble at any minute. Incidentally, this was stressed by the head of the Iranian delegation, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who said after the talks that the agreement was “not ideal”, but it was “the maximum of what we could achieve under current conditions.”
Indeed, the value of the agreement should not be exaggerated. This is a tactical move needed by each side to achieve important, but not particularly long-term goals. Reaching out to each other at the moment, Washington and Tehran remain strategic adversaries. The Vienna agreements are reminiscent of the Soviet-German non-aggression pact 1939 year. Neither in Berlin nor in Moscow did they doubt that a clash between the two powers would happen sooner or later, but they agreed to an agreement, guided by tactical tasks.
Iran needs an agreement as a respite, as an opportunity to improve economic affairs, which is especially important in the conditions of the aggressive policy of opponents in the region - first of all, Israel and Saudi Arabia. But no vain illusions in Tehran do not feed. Speaking with a festive televised address to mark the end of the holy month of Ramadan, Iran’s top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stressed that the country would not cooperate with the United States on international politics, and he said that participation in nuclear program negotiations was an exception. In addition, Khamenei said he was ready to continue to oppose the aggressive plans of Washington and his allies, and emphasized that Iran will continue to support the governments of Syria, Iraq and Palestine, as well as the oppressed peoples of Yemen and Bahrain.
Western interests are even less long-term. According to one of the negotiators, nuclear safety is hostage to the domestic political struggle in the United States. Next year in this country, the presidential election, and now there will be a fierce struggle between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans as one of the trump cards in the election campaign chose to oppose the conclusion of an agreement with Iran and try on the image of a “hawk”. Under these conditions, the Democrats chose a different image - the “pigeon” - and in fact returned to the election promises of Obama, who won on the wave of peaceful promises.
Indicative is the exchange of "courtesies" between the two parties immediately after the conclusion of an agreement. The Republican majority in Congress threatened to block its ratification, while Obama promised to veto the ban and approve the treaty by any means.
But such a game in the "good and evil policeman" will probably last only until the elections. The anti-Iranian sentiment in the American elite is too strong, and the new president, whichever party he represents, is more likely to embark on a new aggravation of relations with Tehran. Signals indicating this are visible now. The most likely candidate from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, at a meeting with voters, admitted that she “absolutely does not believe” Iran and is unanimous in this matter with the Republicans. In addition, Washington in its favor interprets the provisions of the agreement. US National Security Advisor to Susan Rice said that Iran would have to provide access to any military or civilian facility that the United States might find suspicious. In fact, according to the text of the document, checks will be preceded by a specific procedure consisting of a substantiated request from the IAEA and its consideration by Tehran.
Not peace but truce
Calling the agreement stillborn will be an exaggeration, but it is obvious that this “child” is very weak and is unlikely to live long. The influence of opponents of reconciliation with Iran — Israel and Saudi Arabia — is too great. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the day of the signing of the agreement commented on this event: “Today the world has become a much more dangerous place than the day before. The world powers decided to put our common future on the line, leading the game with the main sponsor of terrorism in the world. All rewards received by Iran through this deal will be used to finance terror in the region and in the world. ” In a similar vein, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir expressed himself, threatening to "resolutely resist Iran’s attempts to create unrest in the region."
Given the power of the Israeli and Saudi lobbies in the United States, there is no doubt that Riyadh and Jerusalem will make every effort to disrupt the agreement. Of course, Iran will be declared guilty, especially since there are many loopholes for such intrigues in the agreement.
Contrary to the predictions of some analysts who predict appeasement in the Middle East, unfortunately, there is no reason to expect conflict to end. The West and the Arab monarchies will not abandon attempts to overthrow the legitimate authority in Syria, put Yemen under control and, in general, minimize the influence of Iran in the region.
The only way to stop this bloody performance is to form a powerful international union capable of influencing the processes in the Middle East, as, indeed, in other regions of the planet. Someone thinks that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which, by the way, has been expressing Iran for many years, can become such a union. So far, however, the SCO does not even come close to the role of a global antagonist of the Western world, which was strongly emphasized at the last summit of the organization in Ufa. The fact of ignoring Tehran’s requests for membership in the SCO says a lot: the majority of its members, including Russia, are afraid of shouts from overseas.
In this regard, one should not count on a sharp increase in Russia's trade with Iran, or in general, on a serious strengthening of relations between the countries. And sanctions have nothing to do with it. The same sanctions did not prevent China from bringing trade with the Islamic Republic to 50 billions of dollars, while with Russia this figure is a ridiculous one billion. The thing is that the Russian authorities still do not dare to conduct a completely independent (in the interests of the country) foreign policy. So it turns out that 70 projects of billions of dollars agreed upon last year by Moscow and Tehran remained on paper ...
Thus, the agreement in Vienna did not create a new geopolitical landscape. A lull does not mean achieving lasting peace.
- Sergey Kozhemyakin
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