Israel - Palestine: a thousand to one

By purchasing Shalit, Israel has once again demonstrated that for him the value of the life of every citizen is not empty words. The scale of the exchange is amazing: literally one in a thousand. The epic with Shalit is one of the few stories with a happy ending for the entire period of modern Arab-Israeli relations, the outcome of which is completely satisfied by all parties.

However, in Israel there is still no universal enthusiasm about the exchange. There are disappointed. Some Israelis believe that the main problem of the exchange is not in its proportion, but in the fact that the liberated Palestinians, according to some Israelis, continue their terrorist activities against Israel. Until recently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also held this view. However, if the exchange is completed, it means that the prime minister changed his mind or, at least, was forced to keep it with him. What considerations could Netanyahu be guided by giving the go-ahead for the exchange?

The fact is that the exchange of the corporal is perceived by the majority of Israelis as the best proof of the democratic nature of the existing government, its most noble motives in relation to its citizens. Recall that in the past few years, the liberation of Shalit has become for Israel almost a component of the national idea.

Another reason for the historic exchange with the Palestinians was an extraordinary increase in social tensions in Israeli society. Who knows, perhaps Shalit was not released from captivity and was taken as a fire extinguisher in case of the spread of the Arab revolution to Israel? The liberation of Shalit is a great opportunity to divert public attention from social problems.

The release of Shalit is a clear diplomatic success of the Israeli authorities, and the winners, as we know, are not judged. In addition, if the possibility of the release of Shalit by force would really exist, then Israeli intelligence would hardly have used it. The leaders of the Israeli special services, it seems, took into account the fact that the possibility of negotiations with Hamas may disappear altogether in the near future. The conclusion of an agreement with Hamas occurred, most likely for the following reasons.

The relatively recent operation of the Israeli Defense Army's Cast Lead demonstrated the military failure of Hamas. The defeat of the Sector challenged Israel’s ability to resolve any issues through negotiations. Therefore, the repetition of such an operation could lead Arab-Israeli relations to a final collapse.

Amid talk of recognizing Palestinian independence, Abbas’s popularity has grown to unprecedented proportions, including in Gaza, threatening to deprive Hamas of the right to vote in the very near future.

In addition, the position of Syrian President Assad, which supports Hamas, has seriously deteriorated. Damascus’s support for Hamas is weakening. The authorities of Gaza also don’t hope for Iran. Tehran, which is under pressure from a large part of the international community, probably allocates much less funds to support Hamas than before, therefore, in the near future, the movement will seek support from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, that is, those countries that can be called the most loyal to the West and Israel

And another argument in favor of the fact that Israel had to hurry with the liberation of Shalit, is that Turkey took an active position on this issue. Israeli President Peres even stated that “despite the contradictions between us, the Turkish side left them aside and preferred humanity to politics.” It is known that the Turkish special services cooperated with all parties involved in the exchange process. Why did Turkey so actively contribute to the negotiations on the exchange of Shalit for Palestinian prisoners? The reason for its active participation in the process is elementary: Turkey has long been trying to play a more serious role in the region, aging in all possible ways to influence the course of the Arab-Israeli settlement. And Ankara has achieved certain success in this: the degree of distrust between Israel and Turkey has decreased significantly.

Anyway, the main result of the exchange is the reduction of tension in the Holy Land, in the discharge of the conflict potential. Thus, all participants in the Middle East settlement process benefit from the accomplished exchange of one per thousand in varying degrees.

And once again about the scale of the exchange. One can only guess, but what if any corporal Shatrov found himself in the place of Corporal Shalit, would Russia exchange him for a thousand enemy prisoners of war?

Comments

[mitrich]

Some weak arguments in favor of the exchange. After all, Israel rejects the practice of negotiations with terrorists, and Benjamin Netanyahu himself, who lost his brother in this war, used to be an active supporter of this line.
I read in analytics that the Palestinians released for Shalit participated in the killings of 599 Israelis. And what, the relatives and friends of the victims will accept such injustice as the release of the murderers of their loved ones? Is social tensions in Israel going down because of this? Hell no.
Russia, too, has already stepped on this rake - in 1995 in Budennovsk, when Basayev and the gang were released. Kizlyar, "Nord-Ost", Beslan, hundreds of new victims were received.
My opinion: Israel made a strategic mistake for the sake of momentary interests. I would recommend that Israeli soldiers on the border of the Gaza Strip do not sleep now: the Palestinians will certainly try to get a new Shalit captive, and they will not stop terrorist activities. On the contrary, a serious gain has been obtained.
Surely, it is true that Shabak and Mossad, among those released, sent a number of recruited agents to Gaza, but this does not change the essence. In vain they went to this exchange, in vain ...

[raf]

Exchange causes conflicting feelings! On the one hand, respect for how human life is valued, on the other hand, in my opinion, Israel is losing more than gaining in this exchange!

[Professor]

When I read about this deal, I remembered the words from a famous song: "But we need one victory. One for all, we will not stand for the price..."
You can argue about the price of such a deal as much as you like, the goal in this case justifies the means. The loss of navigator Ron Arad in Lebanon in the 80 years is already very hard for Israeli society to perceive. Let me remind you, then the baud detonated with the wing of his plane. They managed to save the pilot, he clung to the ski of the Cabra helicopter with his hands and was thus transported to the location of the Israeli troops. Ron Arad, lost consciousness, did not go on the radio and was captured by the Arabs. Later he passed from hand to hand of different groups and as a result nothing is known about his fate.
Of course Israel "does not negotiate with terrorists" when it can afford it. It should not be forgotten that both Netanyahu and Barak (Minister of Defense) personally participated in the armed release of hostages from a plane captured by the Palestinians. Then they both served in the intelligence of the General Staff. Moreover, Netanyahu's brother Yoni was the only fighter who died during the hostage release in Uganda! But this time the situation was different. Israel in hot pursuit tried to free Shalit, destroying about 400 Hamas men, but the latter managed to hide the corporal so that the "all-powerful" Mossad did not know about his whereabouts. Another case is fresh in the Israeli memory. Unsuccessful attempt to free the captured soldier Nachshon Waxman. Then the soldier himself and one of the soldiers died. Guided by the above, Israel decided to exchange 1 to 1000. Moreover, this deal was approved by the Supreme Court.
As a result, having exchanged the corporal (the language does not dare to call him corporal) Gilad Shalit from a small village of 150 yards in northern Israel, the son of an engineer and a teacher, for 1027 "freedom fighters" (it would be 1024, one could talk about kilobytes of terrorists). Most of those released were deported outside the PA, so it will not be easy for them to return to active terrorist activities. However, statistics show that about 60% of those released will try to do this in one way or another. By the way, if anyone thinks that the deal will spur the Arabs to more kidnappings, he is wrong. They have never stopped kidnapping attempts, and this will not change now.

Another thing that I remember. Shalit became a prisoner to the foreman, after three years he was transferred to contract soldiers with all the attendant benefits, including a pension. At the time of his release, he was automatically granted disability, again with all the attendant benefits. One of the first (even before his parents) he was met by the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense and the Chief of General Staff. The president visited him in his village yesterday.

A few conclusions:
Arabs value their one thousandth Israeli.
In the next conflict, the number of captured Arabs will be many times less by orders of magnitude.
Competition in combat units will not decrease.

[zczczc]

Professor, in my opinion it is obvious that Palestine won. If you cynically approach the issue of the value of people on both sides, the young tanker, no matter how promising he is, is still less useful than 1027 uneducated people. If only because 1027 will give birth to more children.

[Professor]

The answer to who won depends, as you know, on who to ask. Arabs, for example, still celebrate victory in the Doomsday War in 1973 ...
Of course, in a purely military sense, Shalit is hardly worth even three Arabs. However, the moral in the IDF, this deal has raised a lot. IHMO benefits from the exchange, even if propaganda, Israel received more, especially for internal use. It is a well-known fact that the competition among conscripts in combat units there is more than one person per place. It’s better not to remember about flight courses (I remember how many people were in our place at the Syzran Flight School ) The Arabs, in turn, scatter at the first shot.
1kb + 3 released were mostly accomplices of terrorists (such as a Ukrainian prostitute who brought a suicide bomber from the scene of the attack). Will she take it again? I have no doubt, as I have no doubt, that there are more than one thousand like her. We will never know how many Shabak have recruited during his years in prison.
As I read, the army command and Shabak were not against the deal, and Mossad was against.

PS Those who are interested in the history of special services, I recommend to take an interest in the incident with bus number 300 on the coastal highway of Israel. Very instructive.

[zczczc]

Professor, you can’t apply one measure to two systems - what the Jews will remember and lift from their spirits, the Palestinians will forget in a month: they have a different system, or rather unsystematic behavior - to beat whenever possible and not to recall past experience especially. Small aperture filter.

[Sergh]

A purely political move, although still unknown. We’ll find out in a year.

[cabin boy]

Israel is doomed. The Israeli leadership could agree to such an exchange only if someone very influential insisted on it. I know of only one such country. The USA needs a war to save ordinary "Dollar". Moreover, a serious conflict is needed, necessarily with "a little use" of nuclear weapons. The South Koreans refused to fight the North Koreans, even though the "North Korean" torpedo made in Germany destroyed the South Korean ship with its entire crew. The Pakistanis in general removed their "vigorous" bombs and hid them far away, so that they would not accidentally fly away to India. And only the Israeli leadership happily welcomes the "Arab Spring" and releases a thousand militants point-blank, not wanting to see that Islamic radicals come to power after the revolutions whose idea to destroy "the only democracy in the Middle East" is inspired from the first words of the mullah. Apparently, the Israeli leadership hopes to escape to the United States before the fanatics crush Israel in a mass.

[Professor]

The Israeli leadership could only agree to such an exchange if someone very influential insisted on it.

In this you are absolutely right. And this "someone influential" is the people of Israel. They pressured the government for 5 years and it made a deal. In the past, they exchanged a couple of hundred of their prisoners of war for thousands of Egyptians, 6 soldiers for 1500 militants including Rajub, the bodies of soldiers for dozens of living terrorists. You can read in detail here: http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20111019.aspx

Back then, three Israelis that had been captured during the 1982 war with Lebanon and Syria were exchanged. Each Israeli freed required that 350 Palestinians be released. Over the last three decades, Israel has released some 7,000 Palestinians and other Arabs to obtain the freedom of 16 Israelis. That's 438 Arabs per Israeli.

Netanyahu, by the way, has American citizenship, but that doesn’t bother anyone there.

[Insurgent]

naughty he slept and should guard the base, it would be worth freeing him

[Rashid]

Arithmetic is an interesting thing. At the hands of the terrorists, 599 people were killed, while one terrorist can kill and injure a large number of people who are not ready for a terrorist attack. More than 8 Palestinians, including women and minors, are imprisoned in Israel for this. There is great suspicion that this whole crowd is sitting simply on suspicion of terrorism, as in Guantanamo. Perhaps that is why they were so easily released, they will catch a few thousand more, what’s the problem.

[Ivan35]

I agree Rashid! Correctly

[slan]

Does anyone really not understand that this is a well-thought-out PR company? That's why the local burr and here nightingales are filled with: "One for all, we will not stand for the price .." "And this" someone influential "is the people of Israel."))) Less pathos (s), professor.
Yes, the task would have been to exchange, they would have bargained, you can be sure, the tea is an oriental bazaar, and not "wal-mart", but here the task was specific - the scale of the advertising campaign should shock the layman with its madness. There would be an opportunity, they would let go a million, also a round, beautiful figure)) That would sound like a million to one.
Do not be cattle, think better why these creatures needed this promotion, not otherwise for the next blood.

[Professor]

"And this" someone influential "is the people of Israel."))) Less pathos (s), professor.

You absolutely do not own the information. Read not only Russian and Russian-language resources in order to broaden your horizons. In short, learn the materiel.
About the PR campaign, driving along the roads of Israel you will not see a single intersection where there would be no posters demanding the release of Shalit, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators marched from the village of Shalit to Jerusalem, concerts of pop stars in support of the demand to release him, etc. In Israel, elections are coming soon and Netanyahu would not be forgiven the captured soldier. No one dares to guess who will be the future prime minister.

Annoyed that they value their soldiers somewhere? Understand.

And here is a site offering 10 of millions of American rubles for anonymous information about any of the missing soldiers. Explicit PR ...
https://www.10million.org/en/

[Insurgent]

Professor, answer me, if a Russian guy, or Ethiopian, were taken prisoner, a bargain about the exchange

[Professor]

Look at the link in my previous message, the first one on the left, as explained to me, friends.
In the penultimate deal with Hezbollah, the bodies of the soldiers were exchanged, among them was a Bedouin (Arab Muslim).
Therefore, I think that whether it was Russian or a Negro, they would have exchanged in the same way. If you think about it, Shalit fell asleep at the post and was captured, he himself is from the village, father and mother are ordinary citizens with an average income. He is not profitable.
I saw an interview with Ariel Sharon's son on CBS today. According to him, the rule "not to leave your own people on the battlefield" was introduced by his father, Ariel Sharon. Being himself wounded in the war for independence and almost being captured, he remembered these feelings for the rest of his life.

[Insurgent]

What are you talking about, you obviously do not know that Shalit has French citizenship and dad is factory director

[zczczc]

Professorpropaganda, of course. Of all the ways to survive (in the long run), the one that increases the passionarity of the people is good.
Understanding this, it would be strange not to put up posters and not exchange for even a million enemies. The larger the number, the higher the spirit.

And they noted about the elections below.

[Professor]

Even propaganda. Parents got their son home. That is what is important. The rest will be forgotten.

[slan]

Quote: professor

Annoyed that they value their soldiers somewhere? Understand.

Hypocrisy is annoying when people do not consider others to be people and in the same Libya how much they are in vain ready to destroy children and adults, and then dance on corpses. And here directly such humanists, human life is above all for them))
So why not 999 exchanged, what are you doing? Are Hamas insisted on a thousand? Yes, they themselves are shocked by such an exchange, apparently.

[Professor]

So why not 999 exchanged, what are you doing?

1027, not 999 and neither more nor less. There was a bargain, the Arabs wanted more (much more - that's why they traded for 5 years), but got so much. Do you think the Israelis wouldn't trade 1 for 1 if they could? It was important for them to exchange without releasing local "Bin Ladens".
And what does Libya have to do with it? Is the IDF "dancing on corpses" there? Israelis care only about their own people, humanity has nothing to do with it.

[slan]

Quote: professor

There was a bargain, the Arabs wanted more (much more, therefore they traded for 5 years), but they got so much.

So, yes, the Jews have absolutely no opportunity to bargain with the Arabs for five years))) It is terrible to think what so mercenary Arabs initially wanted, obviously, five years ago they demanded that the Jews capture all the capable of standing on its feet the population of Palestine and then exchanged them for a low-choral corporal))
Well, the basic setup is generally understandable - now that the Palestinian children will stone a couple of such warriors of the IDF, it would be logical to kill a couple of thousands of unselected.
Dancing on corpses is a metaphor; Jewish shiks like clintons, and Jews like Sarkozy, cannot hold their delight in their pants. Just Israeli Jews have a very indirect relation to this.

[Ivan35]

I support you Slan! This is a promotion and we shouldn't be "led" again like in the 90s

[dimarm74]

That's right .... well done Jews ... appreciate the lives of their fighters. You need to learn from them! May God grant that we have treated our soldiers like that! And do not argue with the professor, he is right ...

[cohort]

The professor is right, right. And "dear egg for the day of Christ" (elections) and the Jews are great (they do not abandon their own). And the attitude to Shalit is normal (he slept at the post, a shlimazl, I could have said Netanyahu), which would not have been and is unlikely to be in the near future.

[Professor]

http://www.newsru.co.il/israel/27oct2011/opros_103.html

I was right.

The rise in Likud's popularity stems from the recent release from captivity of soldier Gilad Shalit - his exchange for 1.027 Palestinian prisoners (including hundreds of terrorist killers), according to polls, was supported by the majority of Israelis.

[Maple]

Football. Commentator:
- In a few minutes, a friendly match begins between the national teams of Israel and Palestine. Palestinian players gently warm up in their mined half of the field, and Israeli players warm up the engines of their tanks.