Mykola Azarov. On the state of the banking system of Ukraine
I get a lot of questions about the state of the banking system of Ukraine. Over the years, I have always been very cautious about this, both in opposition and in government. First of all, because the savings of our people are stored mainly in banks. Public confidence in the banking system is the main capital of the country's financial system. The Kiev regime blames many of its miscalculations and abuses on me. Therefore, I have to give the facts. Over 2010-2013 population deposits increased by 224,7 billion UAH. or in 2 times and at the end of 2013 g. amounted to 442 billion UAH, of which 258 billion UAH. in national currency and 184 billion UAH. in foreign currency. And now let's see how the Ukrainian regime in 2014-2015 “hated” He did everything to undermine the credibility of the banking system, and people began to take their money from banks.
To begin with, the regime collapsed the national currency in 3 (!), Provoked rabid inflation, a rise in prices and tariffs. And so that depositors of banks especially “felt themselves good” followed a ban on withdrawing deposits, imposing a tax on passive income (20% on deposit income, etc.). And people, of course, began to take away all their money and money from banks. For example, hryvnia deposits decreased by 74,0 billion UAH. and today amounted to only 184,2 billion UAH. Currency deposits began to decline even faster. This led to the Fitch rating agency making a statement about the upcoming default of Privatbank and Oschadbank. With me, these banks absolutely did not threaten anything, and I myself keep and keep my savings in Oschadbank. As is well known, default is the inability of a bank to fulfill its obligations to customers, including bank depositors. So I had to think about the safety of my contribution.
During these 1,5, the share of problem loans exceeded all critical values, that is, it became more by 60%. No bank has the ability to form its reserves for such a volume of almost bad loans. And this means that the Kiev regime does not think about the safety of deposits of the population. And how can enterprises or individuals pay off loans if the economy stops? An attempt to attract deposits from the population at extremely high interest rates (28% and above) is a deception of people and the construction of a financial pyramid that is about to collapse. Even greater risks are borne by banks for the placement of a government loan, the total amount of which exceeds their regulatory capital. Bankrupt state, servicing, and redemption of bonds is impossible without issuing a national bank, that is, printing empty, unsecured money, which will lead to a further increase in prices and a fall in the national currency. I have already spoken about the problem of foreign currency loans provided at the time at the rate of 5, 8 UAH. for $ 1, and now forced to return at the current rate. Now they, as a rule, have lost the opportunity to receive foreign exchange earnings and are forced to buy currency on the exchange. Finally, a serious problem for banks is the return of their foreign currency loans.
Thus, the banking system of Ukraine in its current state is not capable of not only being a mechanism for accumulating and saving incomes of the population, or participating in economic development and growth, but also represents a serious threat to the national economy as a whole.
Unfortunately, I did not see or hear any more or less competent program to stabilize the banking system. Apparently, it is believed that all by itself "will resolve."
Naive and criminal approach to people.
In relation to the course. It is obvious that some stabilization of the exchange rate is now a temporary phenomenon, and it has been achieved, first of all, by cutting incomes of the population, reducing its purchasing power, limiting the liquidity of enterprises and tough administrative measures. All this leads to a decline in the economy, and as soon as one of these measures fails, the hryvnia will continue to fall, as there are no objective reasons for its strengthening.
In a word, sadly, but it is necessary to state the obvious - there is no way for the economy to fall, and the banking system to flourish. Now both industry and the banking system are generating losses. All the more strange that the business owned by the Kiev regime is flourishing. The legitimate question: “For the expense of whom?”.
To begin with, the regime collapsed the national currency in 3 (!), Provoked rabid inflation, a rise in prices and tariffs. And so that depositors of banks especially “felt themselves good” followed a ban on withdrawing deposits, imposing a tax on passive income (20% on deposit income, etc.). And people, of course, began to take away all their money and money from banks. For example, hryvnia deposits decreased by 74,0 billion UAH. and today amounted to only 184,2 billion UAH. Currency deposits began to decline even faster. This led to the Fitch rating agency making a statement about the upcoming default of Privatbank and Oschadbank. With me, these banks absolutely did not threaten anything, and I myself keep and keep my savings in Oschadbank. As is well known, default is the inability of a bank to fulfill its obligations to customers, including bank depositors. So I had to think about the safety of my contribution.
During these 1,5, the share of problem loans exceeded all critical values, that is, it became more by 60%. No bank has the ability to form its reserves for such a volume of almost bad loans. And this means that the Kiev regime does not think about the safety of deposits of the population. And how can enterprises or individuals pay off loans if the economy stops? An attempt to attract deposits from the population at extremely high interest rates (28% and above) is a deception of people and the construction of a financial pyramid that is about to collapse. Even greater risks are borne by banks for the placement of a government loan, the total amount of which exceeds their regulatory capital. Bankrupt state, servicing, and redemption of bonds is impossible without issuing a national bank, that is, printing empty, unsecured money, which will lead to a further increase in prices and a fall in the national currency. I have already spoken about the problem of foreign currency loans provided at the time at the rate of 5, 8 UAH. for $ 1, and now forced to return at the current rate. Now they, as a rule, have lost the opportunity to receive foreign exchange earnings and are forced to buy currency on the exchange. Finally, a serious problem for banks is the return of their foreign currency loans.
Thus, the banking system of Ukraine in its current state is not capable of not only being a mechanism for accumulating and saving incomes of the population, or participating in economic development and growth, but also represents a serious threat to the national economy as a whole.
Unfortunately, I did not see or hear any more or less competent program to stabilize the banking system. Apparently, it is believed that all by itself "will resolve."
Naive and criminal approach to people.
In relation to the course. It is obvious that some stabilization of the exchange rate is now a temporary phenomenon, and it has been achieved, first of all, by cutting incomes of the population, reducing its purchasing power, limiting the liquidity of enterprises and tough administrative measures. All this leads to a decline in the economy, and as soon as one of these measures fails, the hryvnia will continue to fall, as there are no objective reasons for its strengthening.
In a word, sadly, but it is necessary to state the obvious - there is no way for the economy to fall, and the banking system to flourish. Now both industry and the banking system are generating losses. All the more strange that the business owned by the Kiev regime is flourishing. The legitimate question: “For the expense of whom?”.
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