Who benefits from the lifting of sanctions on Iran?
On the whole, Moscow positively assessed the Vienna agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. In a statement by President Vladimir Putin published on Kremlin siteIt is noted: “Russia welcomes the decision reached in Vienna today on resolving the situation around the Iranian nuclear program and the joint comprehensive plan of action approved by the G-6 and Iran. We are confident that the world today sighed with great relief. We went to this for many years in the framework of negotiations supported by the UN Security Council with the participation of Russia, China, the USA, France, Germany, Great Britain, Iran and the EU. We are satisfied that the founding solution is based on the principle of stagedness and reciprocity, which our country has consistently defended at all stages of these complex negotiations ... ”
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also praised the outcome of the negotiations in Vienna. According to him, the normalization of the situation eliminates pretexts for the use of force against Iran. "It is fundamentally important that the normalization of the situation around Iran eliminates any pretexts for the use of force against this country, which was considered by some as a" real alternative "to the negotiations," the Russian foreign minister quoted the head of "Russian newspaper".
But is it really so cloudless? Let us briefly dwell on what Iran can do and what it cannot do after the conclusion of an agreement, which means that sanctions will be lifted soon.
First, “any pretexts” is an overly optimistic statement. In the agreement signed by the parties, there is a special provision whereby Western “partners” may require Iran to provide IAEA experts with access to certain “suspicious nuclear facilities” and military facilities as well. In the future, Moscow and Beijing will not be able to challenge such a decision through the UN.
Secondly, US officials have clearly stated that from turning off sanctions to their new inclusion is one small step: sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council can be restored within 65 days. The reason may be Teheran’s failure to execute the deal.
Thirdly, the IAEA inspectors must confirm that Tehran has curtailed its nuclear program.
Fourth, Tehran agreed do not enrich uranium over 3,67% over the next fifteen years.
Fifth, the document stipulates that the number of IR-1 centrifuges for uranium enrichment at the Natanz plant should not exceed 5 thousand 60 units.
Sixth, the agreement provides for preservation of the UN arms embargo against Iran for five years.
Seventh, UN Security Council Resolution No. 1747 adopted in the 2007 year will continue in effect until the 2020 year. According to the resolution, Iran “has no right, directly or indirectly, to deliver, sell or transfer from its territory, or its citizens, or using ships or aircraft under its flag, any weapons or related material, and all states will prohibit the purchase of such items Iran has its citizens or using ships or aircraft under their flag, regardless of whether they originate from Iran’s territory or not. ”
Eighth, the UN sanctions on Iran’s rocket technologies will continue: their effect will last for another 8 years.
What will Iran be "for it"?
He was promised to return access to previously frozen assets (worth more than 100 billion dollars). But the money will be given only when the IAEA inspectors confirm: Tehran has curtailed its nuclear program.
In addition, Iran was promised access to all foreign trade opportunities and financial resources.
Finally, the G6 countries and Iran agreed to step up economic cooperation. As we will see below, these are not common words.
Under such conditions, a clear impression is created that, through an agreement with Iran, the Americans decided to hit Russia painfully. There are all grounds for such an opinion. True, the United States, in a sense, will also have to “suffer”: American shale oil will face lower prices. But, as you know, Washington will do anything to weaken the geostrategic adversary.
Already on the same day, July 14, world oil prices dropped markedly. News about the prospect of the appearance of Iranian “black gold” on the market led to a decrease in the price of Brent oil on the 1,35 dollar, or 2,3%. At the same time, the price of the American reference oil dropped by 2% (1,05 dollar) and amounted to 51,15 dollars per barrel, informs "Voice of America".
In the coming months, hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian oil per day may pour into the market, which could lower prices even more, the article says.
According to BP estimates, Iran’s oil reserves amount to almost 158 billion barrels. This amount is enough to provide China with oil for forty years. The same B.N. Zangane in May 2015 declared that Iran was going to actively trade with Asia and Europe.
The European energy business has already quickened. “Eni” and “Total” companies that previously worked in Iran are ready to return to the country, Voice of America reminds. They showed interest in the Iranian oil sector and BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil.
According to experts, writes Yuri Levykin (Utro.ru), the abolition of sanctions will lead to a fall in oil prices below 50 dollars per barrel. And this fall in prices will be a "blow to Russia."
Expensive Russian oil in production will be squeezed out by cheap oil from Iran, which "has already been produced, distributed to storage facilities and tankers and is waiting for shipment." This, in turn, will lead to a weakening of the ruble.
According to the analyst of the brokerage firm Alfa-Forex, Andrei Dirgin, who leads "Voice of America", Iran’s return to oil markets could be a “big shock” for the Russian market and for the ruble exchange rate. “Iran is preparing to win back a part of the market from the Saudis, and with a high degree of probability the task will be solved due to a sharp increase in oil exports and dumping,” said Dirgin. “This could bring down the quotes of hydrocarbons on the world market, which, in turn, will pull down the ruble.”
"Iran was authorized to enter the world oil market right now not by chance," said "Free Press" Vasily Koltashov, head of the Center for Economic Research at the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements. - In the same way as not accidentally removed from the market when it was necessary to maintain high prices for "black gold". It is now clear that oil prices will go beyond the boundaries of the 50 — 65 corridor dollars per barrel, in which they have been held for the last six months. The effect of the appearance of Iranian oil on the market is superimposed on the decline of the Chinese economy and the problems of the economies of the BRICS countries. For Russian exports, this can turn into serious trouble. ”
According to the expert, a new blow to the Russian economy can manifest itself already in the autumn of 2015.
Some analysts have also suggested that after the extension of the arms embargo Russia will not be able to supply Iran with the C-300 complexes. Fortunately, these assumptions were not confirmed.
Evening July 14 Interfax-AVN He said that maintaining the arms embargo on Iran for five years will not affect Russia's plans to supply Tehran’s C-300 anti-aircraft missile systems with improved technical characteristics. A source familiar with the situation said this to the agency. “The C-300 ZRS is a purely defensive system that did not fall under sanctions when they were introduced in the 2010 year, not now, when as a result of Iran’s negotiations and the Six on the Iranian nuclear program, an agreement was reached to extend the arms embargo by five years ", - quotes the agency an unnamed interlocutor. According to him, "work is currently underway to prepare the relevant contract, which can be signed immediately after Tehran withdraws the claim from the International Court of Arbitration (Geneva) to Rosoboronexport in the amount of about four billion US dollars."
The words of Foreign Minister S. Lavrov, who clarifiedthat arms deliveries to Iran are possible through the notification and verification procedures of the UN Security Council.
On the other hand, add to this, the preservation of the embargo will lead to the fact that Iran will not be able to buy offensive weapons from Russia.
Well, what are the advantages for Russia?
“The cooperation of the Russian Federation with the Islamic Republic of Iran after the lifting of restrictions will be significantly increased,” said "Look" Vice-Speaker of the State Duma from “Fair Russia” Nikolai Levichev. - It has many areas: from nanotechnology to engineering and agriculture. According to some experts, the trade turnover between Russia and Iran in the coming years could reach 8 — 10 billion dollars. ”
Deputy Director General of the United Engine-Building Corporation (UEC), Head of the Energy and Industrial Programs Division Sergei Mikhailov said that when the Iranian sanctions are lifted, Russia will be able to occupy a quarter of its gas pumping and power equipment supply market.
“For four or five years, we have been present and interacting with the main basic Iranian customers for the possibility of supplying our ground products,” said "Look" Head of the Energy and Industrial Programs Division of the ODK Company Sergey Mikhailov. - First of all, it concerns products related to gas transportation. As is known, Iran has a promising South Pars field, the need for such equipment is extremely high, and we think it will be gas pumping units based on the engines of the Perm Engine Company. ”
On the other hand, it’s difficult to talk about the pros here: after all, the mentioned “UEC” did not stop working with Iran even during the sanctions. There is probably a plus for Iran, which is thinking about the supply of its gas. And by the way, he also thinks about gas competition with Russia.
So, it is not enough pluses, and it is a lot of minuses.
Now about the international aspects of the Vienna Agreement. Interesting, in particular, is the issue of EuroPRO.
As noted by the TV channel "RT"Moscow hopes that the United States will make adjustments to plans for the development of the European missile defense segment in connection with reaching agreements on Iran: after all, Washington has previously claimed that the European missile defense program is necessary to counter the threat posed by Tehran. And today, when an agreement has been reached with the IRI, Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov raised an old question.
“We probably all remember how in April 2009 of the year, speaking in Prague, the president (US. -“ RT ”) Obama said that if the Iranian nuclear program can be resolved, the task of creating a European segment of the missile defense will disappear, - quotes Sergey Lavrova channel. “Therefore, today we have drawn the attention of our American colleagues to this fact and we will expect a reaction.”
However, a political analyst from Tehran University, Seyed Mohammed Marandi, does not believe that signing the agreement guarantees Washington changing its policy: “When the Americans just started pursuing a policy of expanding the missile defense system, it was already aimed against Russia. We are witnessing another example of US hypocrisy. This concerns defense issues with respect to countries such as Iran and Russia. ”
It is impossible not to dwell on the issue of relations between Iran and Israel.
The agreement on Iran’s nuclear program has been approved by everyone but Israel, the newspaper notes. "Sight".
“Today the world has become a much more dangerous place than the day before. The world powers have decided to put our common future at stake by playing with the main sponsor of terrorism in the world. All the rewards received by Iran through this deal will be used to finance terror in the region and in the world, ”Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a July 14 speech. According to the Israeli prime minister, the Iranian regime is interested in creating nuclear weapons, and now this will certainly happen. “The best thing about this very bad deal today was described by Iranian President Rouhani: the international community lifts sanctions, and Iran maintains its nuclear program. This is a blatant historical a mistake, ”Netanyahu said.
“Iran continues to seek our destruction. We will always protect ourselves, ”the premier added.
Netanyahu didn’t like Washington. It is easy to understand why: the White House has already chimed about its success in world diplomacy, and then suddenly one person speaks of a “very bad deal”.
Benjamin Netanyahu is wrong in criticizing Iran’s agreement with international mediators, US national security aide Susan Rice said. "He (Netanyahu) is mistaken because it is a very strong deal that, after its implementation, will cut off all possible ways for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons," the newspaper quoted Rice. "Sight".
According to her, the agreement provides for the inspection of any Iranian nuclear facilities. The presidential aide called the agreement-based regime the most open and comprehensive "of all those who have ever been introduced."
Rice also recalled that the sanctions against Iran will continue to operate until the country's leadership takes all the agreed steps. And if at least one member of the UN Security Council finds that Tehran permits violations, he will be able to appeal to the Council, and then restrictive measures will be re-applied, and, according to Rice, this will not be prevented by "neither Russia nor China."
In conclusion, we note that strong fluctuations in oil prices and the ruble exchange rate against the 14 and 15 dollars in July were not fixed. However, it should be understood that the situation with world energy prices will become clearer only when the lifting of sanctions against Iran "turns on". That is why experts say about the likely decline in prices for "black gold" not earlier than the fall of 2015.
There are no exact dates for lifting the sanctions. As indicated RBC with reference to IRNA, “the sanctions imposed by the EU and the US will be lifted when the agreement on the nuclear program enters into force.” According to other data cited by Reuters referring to a US official, Iran will get access to more than 100 billion dollars of frozen accounts after the new agreement enters into force, and this depends on when Iran limits its nuclear program, and when the IAEA confirms this. The latter may be delayed until winter: according to the terms of the agreement, Bloomberg writes, Tehran must confirm the fulfillment of its obligations before December 15 of the current year.
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