Military Review

Iran and intermediaries: import of weapons has become a stumbling block

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Iran and intermediaries: import of weapons has become a stumbling blockLast Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program will be concluded on Monday. “We will continue work tomorrow, but there will be no extension of the negotiations,” he said. Mass media note that lifting the arms embargo remains the central problem on which the parties cannot come to an agreement. Tehran insists on the abolition of the ban on the import of weapons, and in exchange is ready to limit its nuclear program.


The protracted negotiations between Iran and the Six on the nuclear program in the Austrian capital are held by US Secretary of State John Kerry, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, EU Diplomacy Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

The agreement on the Iranian nuclear program will be concluded on July 13, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said yesterday. "We will continue to work tomorrow, but there will be no extension of the negotiations," he said. "Vesti".

The negotiators pinned certain hopes on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who arrived in Vienna on July 12. The Iranian side hopes that S. Lavrov will be able to help the negotiation process, which “stumbled” on the issue of arms embargo. Reported it TASS representative of the Iranian delegation.

"This question slows down the process," said the source. “We are looking forward to Lavrov, who with his experience will be able to suggest how to get out of the situation.”

Earlier, on July 11, an unnamed Western diplomat told TASS that the issue of arms embargo remained at the negotiating table one of the main ones. According to the source, the Iranian side was ready to agree to maintain the embargo during the “six months after the transaction”.

Another TASS source, several days earlier, was convinced that a compromise on the arms embargo was possible, and clarified that weapons the embargo can be maintained for a period of 2 to 8 years.

As for Lavrov’s position, he said the following: “Iran is a consistent supporter of the fight against ISIL and the eradication of this threat. The lifting of the arms embargo will help Iran increase its fighting capacity in the fight against terrorism. ”

On the issue of arms embargo on Iran Interfax July 13 told an unnamed source in the Iranian delegation. He said: Tehran is ready to make concessions to reach an agreement on the nuclear program, in particular on the issue of lifting the arms embargo.

According to the anonymous author, “the agreement is close, but so far there are several unresolved issues, including the problem of lifting the arms embargo.”

When asked whether Iran is ready to allow the lifting of the arms embargo not immediately upon signing the agreement, the interlocutor answered in the affirmative.

Earlier, a source in the European delegation, notes “Interfax”, said that the United States insists on maintaining the arms embargo for eight years. The Chinese side proposes to maintain the embargo for two years. But Moscow, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, insists on the immediate lifting of the arms embargo on Tehran.

As analysts assumed, as a result of the negotiations, Tehran will have to tighten the nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. According to preliminary agreements, reminds channel "NTV"Within ten years, Iran will have the right to enrich uranium only at one site, and it will reduce the reserves of raw materials tenfold.

In the US Senate, the forthcoming agreement was called "bad." A similar point of view on the issue is held by the leader of the Senate majority Mitch McConel and the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations Bob Corker. Both say they will not allow approval of the agreement in Congress, reports TVC.

Late evening 12 July Israeli 9 Channel conveyed that the negotiators agreed on the completion of negotiations until Monday (July 13), and before that their deadline was postponed several times. At the same time, the Iranian delegation accused Western negotiators of creating obstacles to reaching an agreement.

The 9 channel reports that Western negotiators have demanded that Iran stop supporting terrorist organizations, including Hezbollah and Hamas.

On the other hand, the IRI’s demand to abolish the embargo on the Iranian missile program imposed by the UN Security Council in 2006 was an obstacle. Russia supported Tehran in this matter, as it supplies Iran with weapons.

The recent statement by Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenai added fuel to the controversy. He said that Iran intends to fight against "global arrogance," meaning the United States. “The battle with global arrogance is the essence of our revolution, and we cannot refuse it,” the ayatollah quotes 9 Channel. - Be prepared to continue fighting global arrogance. The United States is the true embodiment of global arrogance. ”

July 13 RIA News" led a statement by a high-ranking diplomatic source in the western delegation. In his opinion, the negotiations of the “six” and Iran under no circumstances will drag on longer than Monday (July 13). The interlocutor of the agency stressed that this would not be "for nothing."

Another source of RIA "News”, Located in the Iranian delegation, noted that the announcement of a deal on Iran will take place“ no earlier than late Monday evening. ”

In the opinion of Lana Ravandi-Fadai, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, whose words are given by radio "Satellite", in the very near future, the parties will be able to settle differences.

“Iran is very tired of sanctions and will now go to fulfill all the conditions for their removal,” said the expert. - The Iranians, in principle, have already agreed to a compromise. They agree that the arms embargo should be lifted six months later. As for today, despite all the forecasts, despite the fact that the deadline is often rearranged, despite the fact that Kerry said that a deal with Iran can be concluded before the end of the day, it is very difficult to say whether this will happen today or tomorrow. But, I think we will witness that in the very near future negotiations will lead to the beginning of the lifting of sanctions. I am sure that the parties will agree. ”

At the same time, she recalled that the US congressmen have a great influence on the course of the negotiations: most of them are against lifting the sanctions against Iran. But Ravandi-Fadai is confident that Russia will achieve a successful conclusion of the negotiations.

What can happen after the lifting of sanctions from Iran?

“In any case, Iran will try to reintroduce itself into the world energy market after the final lifting of sanctions,” said "Free Press" Igor Yushkov, leading expert of the National Energy Security Foundation. - For this, he will simply have to offer his energy at reduced prices. Iran will not limit production growth and will sell oil at low prices. ”

Iran’s expansion of oil and gas sales will not please its opponents in the Middle East, starting with Saudi Arabia. According to the expert, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia came to St. Petersburg to negotiate the construction of a nuclear power plant in the kingdom, which should demonstrate the nuclear ambitions of the kingdom. Since Iran will be allowed to trade in oil and continue to pursue a nuclear program (after all, Iran will not give up on it), then Saudi Arabia "wants to go exactly the same way."

“And this means,” the expert noted, “that it will deteriorate relations with the United States. As, by the way, and at the USA with Israel. We see that if a treaty is concluded with Iran, the balance of forces in the Middle East can change dramatically. ”

“In turn, thanks to its own production of shale oil, the United States is much less dependent on Saudi Arabia. And if desired, the Americans may well “stimulate” the uprisings in those parts of Saudi Arabia, where Shiites live. And this is just the main areas of oil production.

Therefore, an agreement with Iran can affect not only the Middle East, but also the whole world. Since Iran’s main ally in the region could be Iran. ”


14 July it will be clear what the outcome of the negotiations of Iran and the six mediators. But it is already clear now that any agreement that the Washington administration accepts will cause fierce resistance from the US senators, who believe that Tehran will not back down from making the bomb. The possible permission to import weapons for Iran also does not like Senate "hawks".

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
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  1. Slesar
    Slesar 14 July 2015 08: 00
    +7
    An embargo was introduced on the development of nuclear weapons. And now they want to agree to stop developing without lifting the embargo. An interesting thing is American diplomacy!
    1. k174oun7
      k174oun7 14 July 2015 13: 06
      +3
      These "partners" are plagiarizing Zhvanetsky. They impose sanctions on everything at once and forever. And they promise to remove something, gradually and not immediately. At the same time, a bunch of unacceptable conditions will be thrown. The main thing is that Iran is unarmed. It's easier to "democratize" this way.
    2. andrereu74
      andrereu74 14 July 2015 19: 20
      0
      American diplomacy is crookedly "planting" a partner for the benefit of itself))))
  2. mervino2007
    mervino2007 14 July 2015 08: 27
    +2
    <Lavrov's position: “Iran is a consistent supporter of the fight against ISIS and the elimination of this threat. The lifting of the arms embargo will help Iran to increase its combat capability in the fight against terrorism. ”>
    The fight against ISIS is no longer the main threat. For mattress covers. Therefore, they are trying to minimize such a powerful force. After all, tomorrow - everything will be different ....
  3. dojjdik
    dojjdik 14 July 2015 08: 38
    +2
    all these negotiations are the way to nowhere - why does Israel and the states need some kind of "nuclear weapon" of Iran, and even more so it is the myth of its Internet of these weapons, they need oil and only oil, after the elimination of Ayatola and chaos in Iran, the denationalization of the entire oil and gas industry will begin - that's when Israel and the states will be a powerful lever for "freaks" with the prices of gas and oil, according to the principle that I want it and turn it over. Therefore, the opinions of the majority of people: - Lavrov should not waste his strength, no decisions can be made here "Iran's nuclear weapons" are Israel's pretext and nagging for starting a war with Iran
    1. Pissarro
      Pissarro 14 July 2015 17: 21
      +2
      there is no force at the moment capable of crushing Iran. Even the United States, not like Israel. And since there is no way to impose their will by force, they twist their hands in negotiations. But Iran is a tough nut, you can’t buy it for an empty talk
  4. Belousov
    Belousov 14 July 2015 10: 35
    0
    "Lavrov's position:" Iran is a consistent supporter of the fight against ISIS and the elimination of this threat. The lifting of the arms embargo will help Iran to increase its combat capability in the fight against terrorism. "
    The Iranian Army and Guard Corps are indeed highly skilled units, they will not run like an Iraqi army trained by the Americans. This means that ISIS will receive a really tough rebuff, especially if the Iranians are supplied with normal equipment (recently there was an article in the VO about the armament of the Iranian army - a noble hodgepodge of Soviet, American, French and other components). And the defeat of ISIS does not fit into the plans of the United States. That is the whole snag of the "Iranian nuclear program".
    And oil prices will fall, which is not necessary for the Saudis and the Americans. So do not be surprised if everything goes wrong. Already in Congress, it’s definitely not one year that it’s all.
  5. Vladimir1960
    Vladimir1960 14 July 2015 11: 50
    +2
    I do not understand something. Now sanctions will be lifted from Iran, it will begin to sell 1,1 million bp. more oil, the price of oil will fall, the ruble will fall. We cannot sell weapons to Iran yet. So what is our benefit? For that fought for it and ran?
    1. Aleksandr72
      Aleksandr72 14 July 2015 12: 45
      +3
      Alas, in big politics it is impossible "to eat a fish and not choke on a bone", not everything is always determined by momentary profit (especially in financial terms). Russia now needs Iran as the only serious adversary of ISIS - the creatures of the United States, and a rival of the Saudis (whom and how the latter support, I suppose there is no need to explain), besides, it is consistently pursuing an anti-American foreign policy (and anti-American in the White House's view is everything the least bit contrary to the interests of the United States). Therefore, at the present stage, Russia needs to support Iran in the issue of lifting sanctions and the international embargo. Another thing is that all this can only be done in words, from the high rostrum. It is clear that a further decrease in energy prices is extremely unprofitable for the Russian economy. But on the other hand, there will be more reasons to get off the oil needle.
      I have the honor.
      1. atalef
        atalef 14 July 2015 13: 04
        +1
        In the agreement, the text of which was at the disposal of TASS and Interfax, in particular, it says that Iran undertakes that "under no circumstances will it seek to possess, develop or gain access to any type of nuclear weapon." In response, Tehran was promised the lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to the Iranian nuclear program, including measures to access trade, technology, finance and energy. Iran will regard the return of UN Security Council sanctions as a reason to withdraw from the agreement with the Six, the draft says.

        Reuters diplomatic sources said the parties also agreed to maintain an arms embargo against Iran for another five years, which Russia insisted on speedy lifting. The agency, citing its own sources, also said that UN sanctions regarding cooperation with Iran in the field of rocket technology will remain in effect for another eight years.

        Oil has already fallen below 57 per barrel
        1. padded jacket
          padded jacket 14 July 2015 13: 23
          0
          It is very bad that the arms embargo will not be lifted immediately. After all, we would be the largest suppliers of weapons there (together with China) weapons to Iran, oh, how it is necessary to fight IS. Apparently, Israel and the Jewish lobby played their "role" in this issue, which itself is preparing to commit aggression against Iran and it is extremely unprofitable for it to strengthen it. Again, Iran with a "new" weapon can strongly "attack" the brainchild of the United States and Israel by terrorists from ISIS or Al-Nusra, and this again is not in their interests.
          Although I think Iran is not very worried about nuclear weapons, the atomic bomb, just in case smile The DPRK already has great friends with Iran, and in cases of something extraordinary, Korea will share with it.
          We will wait for the full text of the contract.
          1. Talgat
            Talgat 14 July 2015 22: 14
            -2
            Vatnik agree! The "world government" now represented by US officials is simply trying to slow down and restrain a number of countries.

            First of all, it is Iran and Syria (which is openly attacked with the help of billions of dollars and tens of thousands of bearded men from Libya, Afghanistan, etc.)
            The second is Russia and the Eurasian Union (which, as Clintonsha said, they won’t allow it at all)
            In the third place is China - around which tension in the Pacific is escalated and surrounded by a ring of hostile countries

            Russia is in favor of lifting arms sanctions on Iran not only to "get rich on the sale of weapons" - the main thing is the security of Iran - which as a "cover" covers the Caspian from the aggressors outside
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. atalef
      atalef 14 July 2015 13: 11
      +1
      Quote: Vladimir1960
      I do not understand something. Now sanctions will be lifted from Iran, it will begin to sell 1,1 million bp. more oil, the price of oil will fall, the ruble will fall. We cannot sell weapons to Iran yet. So what is our benefit? For that fought for it and ran?

      Nothing, there’s simply nowhere to go, the contract would have been sold all the same, everyone now needs cheap oil, and Iran has its sea
      1. padded jacket
        padded jacket 14 July 2015 14: 26
        +1
        What is being done? smile The Israeli began to "worry" about Russia after the friends of his country, the Wahhabis of Saudi Arabia, on "orders" from the United States, lowered oil in value by half from $ 100 to $ 50.
        Now he is "worried" that after an agreement with Iran, it may drop by a couple of dollars laughing
        Probably.
        But we will build him up to 14 nuclear reactors, plus he will buy from us engineering products, etc. in the amount equivalent to 500 thousand tons of oil that he will send to our country annually. Moreover, Iran is now selling oil to China, India and other countries under "gray" schemes, so the impact of lifting sanctions from it should not be great.
        And at the expense of prices and everything else, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hassan Rouhani and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin have already agreed during a recent meeting:

        1. padded jacket
          padded jacket 14 July 2015 14: 33
          +1
          And so much he is "worried" apparently for this reason smile ;
          US after Iran ready to tackle Palestinian-Israeli conflict
          The US administration has promised the Palestinians to resolve their conflict with Israel after the nuclear Iran is resolved, Ramon Hamdallah, the head of the Palestinian National Authority, quoted The Washington Post as saying.
          http://ria.ru/world/20150602/1067671756.html
          We are talking about the return of Israel to the borders of 1967, and the formation of the state of Palestine.
    4. Pissarro
      Pissarro 14 July 2015 17: 27
      0
      purely technologically it is impossible to sharply increase oil production. If the sanctions are lifted, then Iran is calculated to reach the indicators you specified within two years
  6. Andrey NM
    Andrey NM 14 July 2015 17: 34
    +1
    The United States will never lift sanctions on Iran, as it will have to pay more than 100 billion of frozen Iranian revenues for oil. Surely this money no longer exists, as well as the gold of Germany, and other sp..x money. Obama has already said that the sanctions will remain. I think that if Russia starts to withdraw money from American securities, and here they come up with reasons not to give the money. Where to get money to solve the problems of the European Union? Why, the Yukos case! There will be more test tubes, planes will go astray, alqaids and igils will be invented .... Loot, gentlemen, loot ... Under the guise of American diplomacy - ordinary scammers who put their paws to their ears along with a glass of coffee, pechenyushy women swearing at their "colleagues ", looking almost under the skirt of their partners, and when they are caught doing this, they swear and threaten terribly. In general, such nice people, to whom not only with your back, it is better not to turn sideways.
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 14 July 2015 17: 39
      0
      Lavrov about the agreement:
      1. padded jacket
        padded jacket 14 July 2015 17: 47
        0
        I do not quite understand about the supply of military equipment. He is absolutely necessary for him, because Iran is not only an implacable fighter against terrorism but also is not far from such an unpredictable regime as Israel, which can commit an act of aggression against this country at any time.
        The arms embargo against Iran will last five years
        The arms embargo against Iran will last for five years, but the supply of weapons will be possible subject to the verification procedure through the UN Security Council, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
        http://www.interfax.ru/world/453608
        1. padded jacket
          padded jacket 14 July 2015 18: 07
          +1
          By the way, all over the world rejoice at the agreement reached only in Israel "cry":
          Netanyahu: "Agreement with Iran is a mistake of historic proportions"
          http://newsru.co.il/israel/14jul2015/net_107.html
          Russia - Iran

          Iranian nuclear power plant "Bushehr-2" will begin to build this fall
          Large-scale work on the construction of the second and third blocks of the Iranian nuclear power plant "Bushehr" (the "Bushehr-2" project) will begin this fall, Sergei Kirienko, Director General of the State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom, told reporters at the plenary session of the Atomexpo-2015 forum. with reactors of the VVER type and an installed electrical capacity of 1000 MW of the "3 plus" generation, with all the necessary safety systems.
          http://www.odnako.org/blogs/iranskuyu-aes-busher-2-nachnut-stroit-osenyu-etogo-g
          oda /
        2. Agarkov Vitaliy
          Agarkov Vitaliy 14 July 2015 21: 11
          0
          As I understand it, arms deliveries will need to be carried out through the UN Security Council. Interestingly, the S-300 does not need such a procedure?
  7. Old26
    Old26 15 July 2015 07: 42
    +2
    Quote: Pissarro
    there isn’t a force at the moment capable of crushing Iran. Even the United States, not like Israel.

    Any country can be destroyed. It all depends only on what resources are needed for this. Think of Iraq. Also, before the first war in the Gulf, there were people who declared that Iraq would defeat the coalition. And where is Iraq now? Two wars and the sanctions between them led to the fact that an independent Iraq was gone. From a purely military point of view, the United States can "bomb" Iran into the Stone Age. Of course, without bringing in troops, for the introduction will lead to a long guerrilla war that America cannot win.

    Quote: Belousov
    And oil prices will fall, which is not necessary for the Saudis and the Americans.

    Us, by the way, too

    Quote: quilted jacket
    It is very bad that the arms embargo will not be lifted immediately. After all, we would be the largest suppliers of weapons there (together with China) to Iran’s weapons as needed to fight IS.

    The largest will be China. In recent years, he did not stop the supply of weapons there, in particular air defense systems. Iran has enough weapons for IS. Sanctions prohibited the transfer of certain weapons systems and materials, in particular those that could be used to create long-range ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. For example, no one forbade Iran to supply tanks.

    Quote: Andrey NM
    The United States will never lift sanctions from Iran, because it will have to give over 100 billion frozen Iranian oil revenue.

    This is not about the US sanctions against Iran. We are talking about lifting the UN sanctions. "personal" sanctions are not included. Iran needs UN sanctions to be lifted




    Quote: quilted jacket
    It is not far from an unpredictable regime such as Israel, which at any time can commit an act of aggression against this country.

    Near. Only some 1000 km ... And this is a trifle. One day crossing? I'm right?? Damn, what kind of aggression can we talk about? By what forces? Israeli air raid? So look how many tanker planes they have. Do they have jump airfields? probably in Iraq or Saudi Arabia? Damn, well, at least reason in real time, and do not pull by the ears "something that cannot happen simply technically.
    And a single Israeli air raid against Iran. Of course, you can call it an act of aggression, but Iran will cope with such an act even with the weapons that it has

    Quote: quilted jacket
    The arms embargo against Iran will last five years The arms embargo against Iran will last for five years, but arms deliveries will be possible provided that the verification procedure is passed through the UN Security Council, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

    What is incomprehensible here? Just look in the UN documents on what the UN embargo was imposed

    Quote: Vitaly Agarkov
    As I understand it, arms deliveries will need to be carried out through the UN Security Council. Interestingly, the S-300 does not need such a procedure?

    UN anti-aircraft sanctions if my cheating doesn’t fail me did not apply ...