Russia and the development of the global crisis

Russia and the development of the global crisis

The Russian State Duma adopted a three-year budget in first reading (2012-2014 years). At the same time, many experts consider the document to be too bold and speak about the danger that the optimism shown during the development of the budget could cost Russia dearly in the future.


RF budget revenues in 2012 are forecast at 11,779 trillion rubles, while expenses can be 12,656 trillion rubles, in 2013, revenues should be 12,706 trillion rubles, and expenses 13,731 trillion rubles, in 2014, the state stall will receive 14,092 trillion, and expenses will increase to XNUM trillion rubles.

The budget deficit of the Russian Federation in 2012 is expected to be at the level of 876,6 billion rubles (this is 1,5% of the country's GDP), in 2013 year - 1,025 trillion rubles (1,6% of GDP), and in 2014 year - 491,1 billion rubles (0,7% of GDP). The shortage of funds in the state treasury is planned to be covered with funds from the privatization of federal property and government borrowing.

Experts are alarmed by the fact that the Russian budget is set on very optimistic forecasts for the price of oil. The state budget parameters were created based on the price of Urals brand black gold in 2012 at the level of 100 dollars per barrel, in the 2013 year - at the level of 97 dollars, and in 2014 in the year - 101 dollar per barrel.

Thus, the head of the Accounts Chamber of Russia Sergey Stepashin announced the need to provide for a “airbag”. Dmitry Abzalov, a leading expert of the political conjuncture center, believes that the macroeconomic indicators, on the basis of which the budget is built, are greatly overestimated and it is “very risky” to calculate the budget based on them. Therefore, it is necessary to provide an action strategy in case of an unfavorable scenario.

In the event of a fall in the price of oil, Moscow will have to think about how to plug budget holes. It is possible to borrow in foreign markets, but this leads to cost overruns and a certain dependence on the lender. An example of the regimes of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, who drove Russia into debt bondage, is very characteristic. We'll have to switch to economy mode, which is also not encouraging, the example of Greece and other European countries before our eyes. In Russia, and so the mass of socio-economic problems, cuts in spending on "social programs" will automatically lead to an increase in discontent. And so, some analysts believe that the “pre-revolutionary situation” has already practically developed in Russia.

Not encouraging others news: The index of entrepreneurial expectations "Barometer" Business Russia "" in September 2011, collapsed more than 3 times (from 2,5 to 8). This fact suggests that Russian entrepreneurs are preparing for the worst. And the worst is what analysts have been talking about for a long time - the second wave of the global crisis. The consequences of such expectations will be a decrease in the number of employees, the withdrawal of some enterprises in the shade, a reduction in investment and fixed assets, social programs, etc.

One after another, negative “signals” come from the outside world: the number of conflict situations in the world has increased, which, like hotbeds of fire, speak of the possibility of creating one huge world fire (war); social protests are spreading to more and more countries and people and becoming more violent; the crisis in the United States and does not think to end; the possibility of the collapse of the eurozone and the European Union; “Chinese problem” (what will happen to China if the world does not need its goods?), Etc.

What will happen to Russia if the world is overwhelmed by a new wave of crisis, even more powerful than the first?

Unfortunately, Russia has not been able to translate the economy into “new rails” since 2008. The country's income depends on the export of natural raw materials, primarily hydrocarbons. Food, industrial equipment, machinery, textiles, medicines, luxury goods, etc., are bought from the sale of resources.

Given the pace of spending of the Stabilization Fund in 2008-2010, it can be said that in the event of a worsening global crisis and a fall in the value of commodities, Russia's existing financial reserves will be about enough for a year. What's next? To count on the fact that in a year everything will be fine, stupid. Such a crisis leads the world to a big war, that is, it can become even worse. There is no other way out. It is doubtful that the majority of people (especially in the West) will consciously reduce their appetites, become more modest and live humanity will make a step towards the building of socialism.

Russia's exit in such a situation is autarky, that is, self-sufficiency, a system of closed reproduction of society with minimal dependence on exchange with the external environment. Given the uniqueness of the position of the Russian Federation, it can go this way. Especially with Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. The first persons in Russia have already voiced the steps that could save the country - the new industrialization, the modernization of the country's production and infrastructure, the creation of the “Eurasian Union”. But the state needs to move from words to deeds as quickly as possible, the world will not wait. We need radical efforts in the style of the Stalinist reforms.

It is clear that when external incomes of funds fall sharply, it will be necessary to look for sources of investment within the country. After all, to modernize the country's infrastructure (one civil aviation and housing and communal services of what are), rearmament of the army and fleet, new industrialization, restoration of food security, many trillions of rubles are needed.

Do countries have such funds? If we discard the discourse on “human rights” and “humanism”, forgetting about “capitalism” and liberal monetarist principles, then they can be easily found. For a start, you can create a commission and investigate the course of the "privatization" of 1990-s - in this way you can "dispossess" more than a dozen billionaires and millionaires. Then look at the case of the bureaucracy, it seems, you can find that many will have a strong discrepancy between official income and cash real estate, accounts in Russian and foreign banks. Think about reducing unnecessary costs associated with a consumer society - such as the luxurious festivities of the City Day in Moscow, Grozny, with the maintenance of the country by a layer of idlers (for example, participants of pop culture, which is busy decomposing the population), etc.

At the same time, there should be a process of crystallization of the new Russian elite - statists, patriots. Only such a leadership can lead Russia into a new, post-crisis world.

The development of the global crisis will force Moscow to take these measures, otherwise the political leadership will be crushed by it and another bloody confusion will begin, which will lead either to the death of Russia or to the promotion of a new elite.
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  1. Joker 25 October 2011 08: 49 New
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    Great, let's get everyone above the average salary dispossessed. bully
    1. lightforcer
      lightforcer 25 October 2011 10: 43 New
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      But Muscovites are not fists? The salary of a doctor is 80 thousand, compared to 20 in the regions.
      1. danilatrg 25 October 2011 11: 24 New
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        So what? I came from the Urals and I live in Moscow for 3. I earned all my money myself and did not steal nirazu. I work in science. What is it to dispossess me? You have to start with yourself. Envy is bad.
        1. lightforcer
          lightforcer 1 November 2011 17: 43 New
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          We are not to blame for some things. The fish rots from the head.
  2. SL.Kocegar
    SL.Kocegar 25 October 2011 09: 36 New
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    again privatization, again someone snatches a piece from the people's good
  3. lokdok
    lokdok 25 October 2011 10: 00 New
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    To begin with, you can create a commission and investigate the course of the "privatization" of the 1990's - in this way you can "dispossess" more than a dozen billionaires and millionaires.

    And if their money is in a Swiss bank? Let's go to war? Or will we give it to the West again?
    And Lukoil, for example, owns a network of gas stations in the USA. How will we take it away? And to take away the factories turned into offices and shopping centers, and to plant businesses? In short, the article is ordinary populist insanity
  4. Yves762 25 October 2011 10: 18 New
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    I agree with the author. With one small clarification: the "crystallization" of the Russian elite and bureaucracy, dispossession of illegal wealth, etc. it is possible only either as a result of a revolution from below, or as a result of a full-scale world war ... recourse
  5. sirToad
    sirToad 25 October 2011 11: 11 New
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    what to laugh? what kind of dispossession are we talking about? all the rasusalinization go on the topic of “what else to privatize” as long as EdRo does not steal any dispossession! what will it look like - will it be? "dispossess us, so be it?" scha! rather, they recognize 30 million Russians as superfluous and offer to voluntarily part with their life than some of their dispossessed.
  6. danilatrg 25 October 2011 11: 20 New
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    Russia's way out in such a situation is autocracy, i.e. self-sufficiency, a system of closed reproduction of society with minimal dependence on exchange with the external environment.

    Already uttered a tear. What are the right words! I completely agree. Only internal cooperation and organization of the domestic consumption market.

    To begin with, you can create a commission and investigate the course of the "privatization" of the 1990's - in this way you can "dispossess" more than a dozen billionaires and millionaires.

    But after these words it became clear that the author has a poor idea of ​​how it really works. Next comes the dumbest nonsense. What is the dispossession of the elite? What are you talking about? Nobody will work again. They will unmask those who laborly earned their capital, those who stole stay at their own!

    And about
    the crystallization process of the new Russian elite
    it's just a little bug. Alexander! No one will ever grow the elite. The elite is growing by itself. But the task of the manager of the country (in our case, the president) or the entire political system (in the case of developed democracies) is to ensure that the elite is also beneficial to the masses. It is necessary that the system encourages the interdependence of the people and the elites. Parenting ... it's just unrealistic.
  7. Magadan 25 October 2011 11: 27 New
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    Russia is overwhelmed by the crisis, because all our finances are tied to the dollar.
    The so-called export of inflation. I describe how it looks:
    1. The United States prints dough as much as they want, but they know exactly how much money to push over the hill so that they do not have tinflation. Example - we sold a barrel of oil for $ 100, they have it for free, because they printed $ 100.
    2. We received 100 dollars and our money supply INCREASED and according to FIG that this is not the ruble, the main thing is that you can buy goods in Russia on this piece of paper, even through an exchanger.
    3. These 100 US dollars are not allowed back to them, they can only be invested in US bonds. Thus, we have inflation, and they just have a national debt that has grown, to which they do not care, no one will ever present it to them!
    1. danilatrg 25 October 2011 11: 38 New
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      The special status of the dollar gives the right to almost uncontrolled emission, but this cannot continue indefinitely. Printing money and translating dollar hyperinflation into government securities, gold and financial assets (stocks, for example) are possible due to deferred payment, which in turn is ensured by the fact of constant economic growth. But this factor is absent now, which has launched the process of abandoning the dollar, albeit an inertial one.
  8. Ivan Krasov
    Ivan Krasov 25 October 2011 12: 16 New
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    I agree with the author on the issue of authorship. However, we have already entered the world economy so deeply that it is unlikely that we can get out of it. The main thing is to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of weapons and military equipment, control systems, electronics and mechanical engineering, and agricultural production. Those. in those industries that can ensure the preservation of sovereignty.
  9. Ivan Krasov
    Ivan Krasov 25 October 2011 12: 20 New
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    I agree with the author on the issue of authorship. However, we have already entered the world economy so deeply that it is unlikely that we can get out of it. The main thing is to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of weapons and military equipment, control systems, electronics and mechanical engineering, and agricultural production. Those. in those industries that can ensure the preservation of sovereignty.
  10. Ivan Krasov
    Ivan Krasov 25 October 2011 12: 21 New
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    I agree with the author on the issue of authorship. However, we have already entered the world economy so deeply that it is unlikely that we can get out of it. The main thing is to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of weapons and military equipment, control systems, electronics and mechanical engineering, and agricultural production. Those. in those industries that can ensure the preservation of sovereignty.
  11. Max
    Max 25 October 2011 12: 33 New
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    A crisis can affect Russia only if the price of oil falls. But it seems to me that given the eternal flame in the Middle East, the price of vryatli will fall. And if the fire starts to go out, then there will always be people who will help it burn further, because the budget for the 14th year includes a price of more than $ 100. :) As it does not sound cynical, but absolutely everyone understands that let the ass be better there, but not at home. Moreover, I am sure that they understand at the very top.
  12. datur 25 October 2011 14: 00 New
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    Maxbut after all, the Americans in the 70s were already able to bring down the price of oil once, and if this time these goats succeed too? the more they are great specialists in the matter of dirty tricks. especially to save yourself loved ones!
  13. Max
    Max 25 October 2011 15: 07 New
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    Now Americans have the same benefits of selling oil as elsewhere. Nobody benefits from a small price, only in the case of a new tough cold war, they can sacrifice their profits to lower the price of oil, of course if it comes out :) And do not forget that in the 70s you could buy for 10 bucks in the states, compare prices only need to convert that dollar into the current one taking into account inflation.
  14. PSih2097 25 October 2011 23: 24 New
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    What x ... I am the territory of the Russian Federation is colored green? Or done on the basis of such a card:
    1. ztk1
      ztk1 26 October 2011 02: 29 New
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      And where did they divide Mongolia?
    2. lightforcer
      lightforcer 1 November 2011 17: 36 New
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      No, these globes are taken from Wikipedia. But your map is more interesting, Transcaucasia and Central Asia are part of Russia, but Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic states are not. And Mongolia in China.
  15. zczczc
    zczczc 26 October 2011 03: 56 New
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    I believe that the Stabilization Fund should buy equipment that we ourselves will not be able to produce in the near future and rare earth metals, which we basically do not have. Introduce within the country the personal responsibility of enterprise directors and, on practically military principles of the organization, raise electronics and precision engineering (there is already little progress in this industry), as their absence is a brake on the remaining high-tech industries.
    1. SL.Kocegar
      SL.Kocegar 26 October 2011 06: 32 New
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      The reserves of rare earth metals in Russia provide it with the second place in the world after China. Almost three quarters of them are concentrated in the Murmansk region, another 16% are in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and with high technology, the outflow of brains from Russia must first be stopped. As the Chinese do, they have long been luring talented young people from the West to provide them with (immediately) decent wages , apartment transport, in general, what they can’t get at home.
    2. sirToad
      sirToad 26 October 2011 06: 51 New
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      your words, yes to god in ears! in the meantime, instead of factories, shopping and entertainment centers are opening. we trade and have fun and we don’t need anything.
  16. ytqnhfk
    ytqnhfk 1 November 2011 17: 59 New
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    Again Samsonov drives a longing !!!!!!!!!