It is obvious that the West can not allow the revival of Russia, as one of the global players. Therefore, sooner or later, the Russian Federation will be hit in order to dismember the Russian state and divide it into spheres of influence. And thus save the Western world at the expense of the “blood” of Russia. Especially such an attack could be carried out by the Anglo-Saxon part of the Western project (the United States and the United Kingdom).
The scenario of open war at the present time seems to be considered early. The Russian army still has enough means to inflict unacceptable damage to any adversary. Open war implies serious costs, we need huge human and material resources. Absolute confidence is needed that Moscow will not use nuclear weapon. It is necessary to take into account the fact that the Western armies, except for the American, have lost the ability to wage a large-scale war, they can conduct punitive raids, piracy attacks, nothing more. To create an army capable of waging a serious war, the West needs a different regime, not a liberal-democratic, or social-democratic, years of military reform, the militarization of the consciousness of European inhabitants.
The West will play the old successful game - “divide and rule”, pitting various peoples, religions, social groups among themselves. In this regard, the example of the Russian Empire, like the current Russian Federation, is indicative.
The main prerequisites that will be developed (already developed) by Western special services, hidden network structures of a “Masonic” character, the “fifth column”:
- The “power” and “people” conflict, for the 20 anniversary, power is perceived by the majority of the people as enemies who are engaged only in the accumulation of capital. The slogan: “Enough to feed the officials, Moscow,” is becoming more and more popular.
- The rift of society on the "successful" and "losers", the gap between the richest and the poor is estimated about 20 times. The prerequisites for class war have ripened, when cottage villages on the outskirts of large cities can burn and will only be killed because of the presence of an expensive car.
- Caucasian problem. It can lead both to large-scale pogroms on ethnic grounds and to the new Caucasian war, before which the Chechen wars of 1994-1996 and 1999-2000 will turn pale.
- Migrants. They already represent a significant force, especially in Moscow, which can be used to destabilize the situation in the country. Or set them on the indigenous population. Arrange riots on national and religious grounds.
- Russian question. The Russian people, thanks to a number of system errors in the years of the USSR, and politics in the period of the Russian Federation, in many respects turned into a Russian-speaking mass. This caused an outcry in the youth environment, the growth of nationalist sentiment. Striving for justice can become a fuse for the collapse of Russia. West can run the script "Russian revolt".
- Throwing the Russian intelligentsia. The intelligentsia in the Russian empire, the Soviet Union was a powerful revolutionary detachment displeased with the state of affairs and made a great contribution to the collapse of these empires. The Russian intelligentsia is no better (probably its quality has even fallen), so the moans about “this country” and that “you cannot live like this” will be heard more often.
- The Russian army and the Interior Ministry are discouraged by the reforms, so their potential for resistance, in the absence of a strong-willed leader, will be low. Part of the generals even try to catch fish in muddy water.
- The liberal public, the comprador bourgeoisie are unhappy with the “new coming” of Putin. This is reflected in the increased activity of their activities. For example, on October 13, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) announced a political crisis in Russia and put forward demands for political reforms in the country.
Caucasian war. Given the fact that “counter-terrorist operations” are regularly conducted in the North Caucasus and they don’t see the region, it’s clear that the Islamic underground is only strengthening its position. Money and the development of a consumer society cannot solve the problem of the North Caucasus. If the North Caucasus Federal District can blow up, it will be a very hard war, covering not only Chechnya, but also other regions. It can lead to a complete destabilization of the situation in Russia. The West may begin to demand the withdrawal of troops from South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and bring in its "peacekeeping forces."
With each concession of Moscow, the pressure will only increase, up to the demand for the introduction of the UN "peacekeeping forces" in the North Caucasus. It will be for Russia a huge "Kosovo". Then Russia will be shred, piece by piece.
"February-2". The collapse of the country will be started from the center. In Moscow, Putin’s opponents (liberals, national democrats, part of the nationalists, and possibly part of the Communist Party of the Just Russia, with the support of oligarchs, West-oriented bureaucrats) will bring thousands of people with the slogan - "Occupy the Kremlin!". The slogans and theses of this protest movement are already walking around Russia: “Down with the party of crooks and thieves!”, “Stop feeding Moscow!”, “Stop feeding the Caucasus!”, “Down with Putin!” And so on. Considering the experience of Egypt and Tunisia, we can say that only a very strong-willed person will be able to resist such a movement supported by the mass of domestic and Western media (which can put some compromising material on the leaders of the Russian Federation, ministers, in the style of the Wikliks information bomb). Is Putin and Medvedev capable of this?
The “global community” will immediately require a “dialogue with the people.” Unknown snipers and people in civilian organize several battles - with the transparency of the borders of Russia and the presence of businessmen of their “squads”, there is no doubt that this will happen. The first blood will be shed. The opposition leaders will create a Russian Transitional National Council.
And then everything depends on the will of the political leadership - whether they can withstand such pressure. Will the Interior Ministry and the army restrain the protest movement until the use of force, following the example of Syria. Putin will face a dilemma - to clear the "fifth column" in Russia (and those who, by foolishness and youth, take part in the destruction of their state) or concede, perhaps, on "honorable conditions".
With the victory of the opposition, we are waiting for the "Temporary Government-2" and - read more textbooks stories. If Putin goes to a complete break with the West, he will become "Stalin-2" and he will come to repeat his path - "the great purge", industrialization, the creation of a powerful army, etc.
"Libyan script." Russia will be set on fire, like a pioneer bonfire, from several directions, some of which may be a “covering operation”, say for the “February-2” scenario.
For example, in the Far East there will be a "partisan detachment", which will announce a manifesto on the liberation of the Russian people from the yoke of Moscow. He will make several successful attacks on local government officials. The Trans-Siberian Railway will be blown up in several places by the “group of unknowns”. While Moscow will try to restore order, such groups will arise in Siberia, in the Urals and the Volga region. The Internet will be flooded with videos calling for the military, the Interior Ministry, the people to support the "Russian resistance." People will be disoriented, some will decide that this is true. At the same time, "government troops" (we recall the example of Syria) will carry out several punitive actions - civilians will die.
An uprising will break out in Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria. In Moscow, will begin a mass protest. The “world community” will demand to start a “dialogue with the masses”, to conduct “political reforms”, not to solve the problem with “violence”.