Analytical program "However" with Mikhail Leontiev, October 18 2011




Slowly, very slowly, with some silly procedures and delays, the program of saving Europe is being pushed through. Markets are nervous. Obama is nervous. Already stated that all the headaches in the world - from the Europeans slow.

It is assumed that a specific eurozone rescue plan will be adopted at the October 23 European Union summit. The European Stabilization Fund is expected to increase to 440 billion euros. Almost another 300 billion, if you count in euros, will give the International Monetary Fund. Due to what, the debt of the troubled countries of the eurozone, and first of all Greece, should be written off and the largest European banks recapitalized, whose sustainability is threatened by such a write-off.

Hedgehog clear that is not enough. Even for Europe alone, where the debts of 5 are troubled countries of 3 trillion euros. We need more and more. And where to get? It's clear to type. Nowhere else. Europe cannot print like that yet. Can not manage. And there is no such state. America is typing with might and main. But also, apparently, not enough. It should be much more, an order of magnitude more.

“What we need now is the economic equivalent of war. In fact, the Great Depression was nullified by the program of numerous public spending, better known as the Second World War,” said Nobel Prize winner in economics Paul Krugman.

Krugman is right. That is how it was. And somehow it will most likely be so. That is, he is not crazy and not a maniac and in sum, in general, correctly imagines everything.

As Krugman noted, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are incomparably small in relation to the size of the economy - "these are not big enough costs." According to the calculations of experts at Brown University (USA), the cumulative costs of the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and related "counter-terrorism operations" exceeded 4 trillion dollars. At the same time, the cost of the Second World War, according to the budget management of the Congress, is 4,1 trillion in terms of today's prices.

The point is not even the scale of the economy, but the scale of debts that must be written off. And it is necessary to write off in 300 times more than in World War II. Hence, the economic equivalent of war should be more times in 300. That's what we love economists for. Here in economics, everything fits together: printed money, reset the debt - and walk yourself. Unfortunately (or fortunately?) For economists, large-scale economic phenomena are never limited to economics. Here's a nuisance: always the purity of the experiment is broken. Economic problems have the audacity to flow into the social and political.

We can already see the social equivalent of the Krugman program on the streets of American and European cities. This is like the beginning of the program. And there is also a political one. The political equivalent of a war spending program is war. Sorry, that's exactly what it will be. If only the most economically adequate plan for resolving the global crisis is implemented.

By the way, about all this - in our new project "American hole-3" in the very near future.
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  1. Motherland
    Motherland 18 October 2011 11: 50 New
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    Let it be better if they spent the money if they needed it, then in these countries the conditions improved.
  2. makrus
    makrus 18 October 2011 14: 43 New
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    I do not think that a serious war is real. Not those times. Iran, North Korea and China, for the United States today are not opponents. China is economically stronger, but all of its markets are tied to the United States. Without these markets, China will not be able to sell its products. If Americans don’t buy “made in China” goods, social unrest will begin in China. Americans, in turn, depend on Chinese investment. As soon as China ceases to buy American state. bonds, the United States will not be able to service its state. debt. What will cause an instant devaluation of the dollar. AND THIS NOT WHO WANTS. Because European banks will collapse, then WE. SO MUCH IN OUR MUCH WELL-BEING (conditionally) IS SECURED BY A HIGH OIL PRICE. THERE WILL NOT BE SUCH A PRICE, WILL NOT BE PENSIONS, ALL THE OTHER BUDGET PAYMENTS WILL BE FURNISHED, THE ARMY RE-EQUIPMENT WILL BE FURNISHED, ALL THE BUILDINGS WILL BE FOLDED, etc.
    DECLINED MARKETS WILL HIT IN CHINA its economy is export-oriented.
    RUSSIA is the only enemy for the United States able to provide mass absorption of armored personnel carriers, tanks, helicopters, which would contribute to large-scale orders of military equipment inside America. BUT I THINKING TO FIGHT WITH THE NUCLEAR POWER, THIS IS A Doubtful PLEASURE, even having such a noble goal as economic recovery.
    The only thing that Americans can really do is to collapse the national currency, but the rest of the world will oppose this.
  3. Motherland
    Motherland 18 October 2011 15: 27 New
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    No one intends to fight nuclear weapons. This is because the saying in the strategic nuclear forces is "After us nobody." Now no one will conduct open actions while resources are being poured into America from Russia rich in these resources.
    Everything will remain the same, but war is inevitable. Sooner or later, resources will end, maybe something will happen, but I assure the United States will not rule the world in the near future, if it remains, they will simply exhaust all of the planet and we will not come up with alternatives waiting for the return of the stone age.
    I agree only against Russia, the United States can provide a good absorption of money. But as long as we have allies, until the army is ruined, while our people are alive, we won’t defeat anyone.
    1. Gosta
      Gosta 18 October 2011 15: 48 New
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      What are our allies? Do not make me laugh.
  4. Gosta
    Gosta 18 October 2011 15: 48 New
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    What are our allies? Do not make me laugh...
  5. nickname bj
    nickname bj 18 October 2011 16: 20 New
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    "Fermentation in the minds" is observed in Europe, in America, in Africa ... Only in China, Japan and Russia is relatively calm ...
  6. URB
    URB 18 October 2011 18: 13 New
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    I would not want 3 world .... so many people will die! at what it’s not guilty that world leaders (or maybe human nature is to blame?) unleash wars at their whim ....
    1. Motherland
      Motherland 18 October 2011 19: 54 New
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      World War 3 is still going on, the "cold war." And human nature is in conquest, greed, and when such people in power is trouble. Yes, and when they "say" money, everyone is silent at once.
      1. URB
        URB 19 October 2011 17: 06 New
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        exactly!
        correctly!
    2. URB
      URB 19 October 2011 17: 07 New
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      hmm -2))) want a war?
  7. baluru72
    baluru72 19 October 2011 08: 58 New
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    When the world plays enough of an unsecured dollar and it collapses, there will be only one currency left --- fresh water and food ,,, and the money of that country who has it ,,,,