We will not save the aviation industry - we will destroy Russia
The state should, finally, make clear its position on the future of the Russian aviation industry.
We are witnessing the execution of the death sentence to the domestic aviation industry. In the coming months, we must wait for a control shot in the head. There is no doubt that in the Russian elites there is an organized group that is not just criminally indifferent to the fate of the Russian aviation industry, but all 20 years after the collapse of the USSR intensively promotes foreign manufacturers, especially Boeing.
The key point of this group’s actions was the Yak-42 7 September disaster near Yaroslavl, when the Lokomotiv hockey team died.
Today, most official and unofficial experts are inclined to believe that the cause of the accident was the crew’s actions and the inadequate preparation of the aircraft for departure, i.e., unrelated to the design and manufacture of the Yak-42 - by the way, a reliable and promising aircraft.
However, the causes of the accident were immediately presented to the President of Russia in such a way that he unequivocally stated the need to update the aircraft fleet without reference to their country of origin: “The government will probably have to make a very difficult decision, because it is impossible to continue with such a fleet. The value of human life is higher than all other considerations, including the support of a national manufacturer ... If we are not capable of unwinding, we must buy aircraft abroad. "
And four days after the disaster, the president approved a list of instructions following a meeting to investigate the causes of the disaster, including the ominous 1-in item: “Take urgent measures to ensure the subsidization of leasing of civil aircraft that meet modern airworthiness requirements, regardless of state - aircraft manufacturer ... ".
Obviously, it was the very same group of “boingophiles” that managed during the Russian president’s visit to the USA last June to acquire Boeing 50 airliners Boeing-737 for a total of $ 4 billion with the option to purchase another 15 of such aircraft. By the way, according to the “age” (start of operation) “Boeing-737” is four years older than the many times cursed by the Tu-154, and in the middle of the 1990's. This model of "Boeing" was officially recognized as the most unsafe and emergency in the world.
As a result, at a joint press conference with the Russian president, US President Barack Obama proudly reported on the outcome of the summit talks: Russia buys 50 Boeing from the USA, which Obama noted with even more pride that 44 000 will provide America with additional highly skilled jobs .
Moreover, it was decided to establish a branch of Boeing Design Bureau in Skolkovo, where our designers 600 will work as “engineers” not for the domestic aviation industry, but for the “Boeing” who managed to unwind. Prior to this, according to estimates, the order of 4000 Russian aircraft designers and engineers for the 20 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union were recruited by Boeing, including on remote employment with sending and sending them tasks on the Internet. This method, in contrast to the gentle “brain drain”, can be directly designated as “brain drain”, compared to which industrial espionage looks like child's play.
The overall situation is directly reflected by the anecdotal (if not for the tragedy of what is happening) the recent statement by the President of the Russian Development Bank (VEB) Vladimir Dmitriev that Russia is allegedly incapable of producing regional aviation, and that we must now organize the production of the aircraft in Russia in partnership with foreign companies . That is, we are talking about, in fact, an open transition to a “screwdriver assembly” not only of automobiles, but also of airplanes, all the more so since the foundation was laid on 70% of imported and “Boeing” origin of the Sukhoi Superjet.
Experts have criticized Dmitriev's Sochi fantasies, but the situation has finally become clear: it’s time for the Russian aviation industry to make ends, freeing up space and unique super-expensive markets in the United States, the European Union, Brazil, China, etc.
Until recently, there were five countries in the world that were able to produce and fully service main civilian and military aircraft. Russia was included in this number on the first and second leading roles. But Germany after defeat in the Second World War was no longer included - even with its engineering national genius.
Now they want to make Russia beaten by Germany. This is probably a natural consequence of our geopolitical defeat and practical transformation into a colony, an object of imperial division. The imperial section is not a figurative expression, but a fact that no one hides.
According to a report published a week ago by the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus, over the next 20 years, Russian airlines will purchase 1006 passenger liners with a capacity of $ 100 billion worth of 95 seats. At the same time, Airbus, according to the executive vice president of this European aviation industry, plans to sell us “ at least half of all liners delivered during this period ”! And earlier, the American aerospace concern Boeing also published its forecast, according to which the airlines of Russia and the CIS countries in the coming 20 years will buy over 1000 new aircraft. And Boeing is counting on at least the other half of the Airbus!
Here it is - the moment of truth! We are no longer there, our aviation industry field has been completely cleansed, and Russian aviation is ready for investment and investment exclusively in the foreign aviation industry. And two global aviation empires openly divide the Russian market.
And here a number of primary questions arise.
Why have every future Russian aircraft been counted with Airbus and Boeing? Why don't we have this count in the government? And if there is, why hasn’t a new domestic aviation industry been created for it - all the more so since the approximate volumes and rates of the fleet's renewal were known even 10 more years ago? That is, why does the Russian government, it turns out, have already written off these $ 95 billion (unique supermarket!) Sounded by Airbus to foreign corporations?
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But then there are already other, straightforward firing articles and questions: who passed the Russian aviation industry? FULL NAME? What exactly officials and for how much they sold and finished off the domestic aviation industry?
The categorical nature of these questions follows at least from the fact that the policy of eliminating the Russian aviation industry in the situation of the emerging giant domestic market and demand was absolutely clear already at least 10 years ago.
For actual credibility, I’ll quote from my article for April 2002 of the year “World Shame ... Who will stop the final destruction of Russian aviation?”: “Where is our“ Unity ”, which is impossible, like“ United Russia ”, if the country’s unity will be provided by airlines to others? airplanes and built-in foreign aircraft systems? .. The Russian aviation industry is rapidly collapsing, outstanding designers, engineers and workers are rapidly aging and no longer hope for almost anything. The Western aviation industry is rapidly organizing world markets, assimilating and digesting the “one sixth part with the name short Russia”.
The leader of our air carriers, Mr. V. Okulov, son-in-law B.N. Yeltsin (by the way, from the 2008 of the year - Deputy Minister of Transport! - Approx. Aut.), He has been telling in the most mass media for seven years that Russian aircraft are completely unsuitable for international flights, and in the last two years open reports on the inadequacy of Russian civil aircraft for domestic flights. For six years, he also likes to emphasize the urgency of the situation from year to year: they say that planes are needed not tomorrow, but now we cannot wait. And after he does not buy Russian planes, he likes to repeat even more with heartfelt concern in his voice: they say, what can you do if our aircraft manufacturers for some reason are not capable of producing the necessary planes ...
The arguments of the airlines and the government are equally the arguments of the merchants who are not interested in the Russian national aviation system. More precisely, not even disinterested, but simply indifferent, doing other things. And if it is possible to understand merchants (their business is profit), then it is the state apparatus that is guilty of that disgrace, world shame, of which we are witnesses.
What kind of arguments have not come up with over these years high faces! And all the arguments are in favor of purchasing foreign aircraft and feeding the western aviation industry. And not one - to restore and develop the domestic one.
All the talk about the plight of the country, about the shortage of money is simply ridiculous or, more precisely, unashamed ... ”
And all this was written before the beginning of the “fat” petrodollar years of the first decade! Amazingly, all the arguments of the import lobby and killers of the Russian aviation industry 15 are the same for years: airplanes are needed right today, now, this minute, so you need to urgently buy foreign ones. Under these sweet songs of traitors and traitors, more than 10 years passed, during which it was necessary to preserve and increase the domestic aviation industry. The market in $ 95 billion for the next 20 years is now openly sided and discussed by foreigners!
Especially indicative is the situation with regional aircraft, which VEB President Vladimir Dmitriev was concerned about.
In the same article of April, 2002 of the year, based on official statements by air carriers and the government, which claimed that there was an obvious need for Russian airlines for aircraft between 2001 and 2015. in the 1202 aircraft, of which 53 are long-haul, 215 are medium-haul, 149 are short-haul and 785 are regional, I asked a “childish” question: who in the government has already calculated the necessary capacities of the Russian aircraft industry? Who plans to develop this market in the interests of the country?
But even then it was obvious that no one was going to solve this simplest classical task of drawing up a business plan. And, as it is already obvious today, that mathematically clear demand for medium-haul and regional planes for 15 years is about $ 1 billion per year (i.e., at least $ 15 billion), the state has been sidelined, left.
What is going on here? What was the kindergarten in the form of a meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation “on aviation” 1 April of this year, during which fixation was perhaps the main event: we are able to produce no more than seven (!) Airplanes a year today. Who is personally responsible for the years in the murder of the domestic aviation industry? When will ceaseless speeches of high persons who are not just out of logic and understanding, but also are a smoke screen for finishing our aircraft industry in favor of Boeing and Airbus?
The essence of what is happening is amazingly accurately reflected in the use by the Russian President of such a word as “unwind”. Let me remind you once again: “If our people are not capable of spinning up, we must buy aircraft abroad.”
It appears that the president gives an invaluable clue to the work of the prosecutor's office and the Investigative Committee of Russia, the Accounts Chamber and commissions - governmental, parliamentary and others.
You just need to find out who exactly in the last 15 years and due to what motives created the situation, thanks to which our people turned out to be “not able to unwind”. After all, they all understand perfectly well that the aviation industry is not a spontaneous natural phenomenon that itself “unwinds”, “twists”, and so on. For unwinding, the main thing is necessary - stable orders for airplanes. But it is precisely this under various (usually mocking) pretexts that our aviation industry is deprived of.
Awesome dialogue recalls Henry V. Novozhilov, former General Designer KB them. Ilyushin, the organizer of the development and production of IL-76, IL-86, IL-96-300 and IL-114, twice Hero of Socialist Labor. At the beginning of the 2000's He asked German Gref for state guarantees to support the Il-114 regional aircraft, which is so needed by companies and the country: “German Oskarovich,” I said to Gref. “I’m not asking you for money, I’m asking for guarantees that this plane will be needed!” - “Henry V., our airlines have weak muscles. When they get stronger, then we can talk about guarantees. ” I answered him: “When your airlines get stronger, we will safely stretch our legs.”
Before us is the whole essence of the technology of the killing of the domestic aviation industry by high-ranking officials. The husband of the state, instead of realizing the possibilities of the state and supporting the aviation industry, sternly talks about the difficulties of the airlines. At the same time, the leadership of the airlines (Okulov has always been very ingenious here) tells about the difficulties of passengers on Russian aircraft. But the reality in all this cynical idle talk is always in one thing - in the game in favor of "Boeing" and "Airbus."
By the way, Gref is the author of the miraculous idea of eliminating the domestic aviation industry, ostensibly in the name of saving people's lives. At a meeting of the government in September 2005, German Oskarovich called for the cabinet ministers to "urgently decide on duties (on the importation of airplanes)" because (attention, you are present at the birth of a great idea!) "No industry can be built at the cost of people's lives." And he explained, in order to achieve the prestige of the aviation industry by comparing it with the domestic auto industry: “If we produce our dear Zhiguli and Volga, which people call“ cans, ”then at least you can drive at a speed of 40 km / h and minimize losses , but it's an airplane, it flies. ”
Those in government posts who have been working diligently on a foreign aviation industry for all these years are happy to portray the situation of abandoning orders for Russian aircraft as a result of market relations between airlines and aircraft manufacturers. This anti-state manner of presenting the case as a dispute between equidistant economic entities is well known on raider attacks. In these cases, the official also makes a detached person in Pilatov and declares: “Understand yourself, the state cannot interfere here, this is a dispute between economic entities!”. At the same time, everyone is well aware that without the participation of state employees, raiding is simply impossible. And the main thing is that this state, so shameful if it is necessary to force airlines to buy domestic aircraft, suddenly discovers a wolfish grin and incredible dynamism when it is necessary to break through the next reduction of import duties on foreign aircraft.
But the most important thing is that they specifically reduce the situation to what is needed “now, now, this minute.” Although it is obvious that even if at some point our industry cannot ensure the supply of liners, this does not mean that we should not give a tough task to the industry for a period of 3, 5, 7 years! In this lack of planning, the re-equipment of the aviation industry is the key failure of the state and the main gangster-thieving logic of those officials who work in a foreign aviation industry.
It is symbolic that the first decade of the 21st century in Russian aviation began with persistent statements by Okulov (then the president of Aeroflot) about the need to rely on the purchase of foreign aircraft. The second year of the second decade ends with the same calls of the same Okulov! Immediately after the disaster near Yaroslavl, now the deputy head of the Ministry of Transport Valery Okulov (the sovereign's man!), As if nothing had happened, said: “Today (!) The only (!!) way to update and replenish equipment for regional and local airlines is to purchase foreign aircraft ".
Aviation industry - the industrial base of a developed country, the basis of national security. Therefore, no one is surprised that their Boeings and Airbus are pushed by the top leaders of leading states, like Obama in particular last summer, when 50 outdated Boeings skillfully pushed us to us. It was thanks to the strategic planning of states and the intensive promotion and protection of their aircraft industries that Boeing and Airbus managed to “do it”, that is, “unwind”.
Moreover, we have our own more than illustrative examples of how the aviation industry can unwind. Simple and majestic figures of volumes and rates of growth of production of combat aircraft during the Great Patriotic War, from 7900 in 1941 to over 40 000 in 1944, testify to this. In just four years, growth was five times! However, even before the war in just five years (!), From 1933 to 1938, the number of domestic aircraft produced in the USSR grew by a factor of 5,5!
The situation with the aviation industry has become a key diagnostic criterion for the viability of the government and the country. Finishing off the aviation industry means that the verdict was also passed on the country.
In our particular situation, after a huge advance in aviation during the Soviet period and the importance of aviation for the coherence of Russian spaces, the killing of the aviation industry means killing Russian engineering and industry as a whole, along with the engineering class as such, the final slide of Russia into the number of deindustrialized wild countries. It is the aviation industry at the beginning of the 21st century that is the unique industry that ensures the reproduction of all competitive Russian industry and the retention of culture and the ability to produce world-wide products.
The termination of the release of our own aircraft will inevitably entail and the halt of dozens of industries for the production of instruments, equipment, airfield equipment, maintenance systems, spare parts, training and professional retraining, etc., that will hit other "flying" areas - the same space and defense in general. Behind the aviation industry, the entire technosphere of the country will finally fall.
The less we will produce domestic aircraft, the faster we will switch to the purchase of foreign weapons and even launch vehicles for a peaceful space. Well, or they will cease to fly, they will predominantly explode and fall.
Accordingly, there is another aspect - the military. There is no separate military aviation industry. Aviation industry is either there, or it disappears along with the ability to produce sophisticated equipment and the whole complex of its support. Aviation is a decisive factor in modern warfare. This was clear as early as 1932, when the Italian general, Giulio Due, published his famous book, “Dominance in the Air.” This is all the more clear today, after the “Storm in the Desert” in Kuwait, the “Enduring Freedom” in Afghanistan, the defeat of Yugoslavia, Iraq and now Libya.
Aviation is not military or civil, small or large. It either exists in the state in full scale, with the country's ability to design and manufacture all types and types of aircraft, or there is none, even if there is a production of individual aviation products. Therefore, it is more than strange, to say the least, when the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation declares: “Further it is impossible with such a fleet. The value of human life is higher than all other considerations, including the support of a national manufacturer ... If we are not capable of unwinding, we must buy aircraft abroad. "
The loss of the national aviation sovereignty of the country means not only the loss of defense capability, but also the direct “Africanization” of Russia.
I will never forget, as a writer and former resident of Soviet intelligence in several African countries, Igor Nikolayevich Prelin once very clearly and vividly explained to me how the world power differs from the individual vegetative countries of the global periphery. And this, in turn, was explained to him in one of the African capitals by his French counterpart, the counterintelligence officer. “Look,” says this Frenchman, “this is pilot Jean. African. He is a cool pilot, magician and magician in the management of the aircraft, can control a specific aircraft better than any pilot from Europe, the USSR or the USA. But ask him where these “iron birds” come from, what is necessary for them to fly and he will not answer. For him, they themselves grow ("unwind"!), Like bananas or some other grass, ripen and fly from overseas. "
In the same way, we will soon turn our youth into cheerful idiots who don’t imagine how airplanes and other outstanding industrial things are doing, which universities and research institutes need for decades and centuries to learn how to do, how the national industry system is organized, which, in fact, "grows" for decades, the very national ability to produce.
It is time for society to organize for the protection of its aviation industry. To this end, I propose that those who are not indifferent create a coalition with the approximate name “Society for the Support and Development of the Russian Aviation Industry”. The main tasks of the Society could be the re-creation of development and engineering, industrial culture, and the organization of public pressure on government officials to order domestic aircraft and support the domestic aviation industry.
And the state should, finally, make clear its position on the future of the Russian aviation industry with a mandatory assessment of the actions of a number of officials and ministries over the past 15 years. To do this, it is urgent to carry out the following activities:
- To organize a government commission to investigate the circumstances of the collapse of the domestic aviation industry and to determine the persons and organizations lobbying for the interests of the foreign aviation industry;
- the TFR of Russia to open a case upon the factual liquidation of the Saratov Aviation Plant, which produced, in particular, the Yak-42, which crashed near Yaroslavl;
- The Chamber of Accounts should conduct a strategic audit of the decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation on the aviation industry in 2005-2011;
- The Ministry of Economic Development will present a strategic plan for exporting products of the Russian aviation industry to 2012-2035;
- the Russian government to submit a draft decree of the President of the Russian Federation on the national plan for the production of products of the Russian aviation industry at 2012-2025. with the proposal of the national project "Sovereign Aviation" and the definition of personally responsible for the creation of a new aviation industry;
- The State Duma of the Russian Federation to adopt the Law “On the Organization of the Russian Aviation Industry in 2012-2025”.
What is the current state able to accomplish from this?
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