The Ukrainian media and the Russian liberal press published a "bearded" Stratfor report on "options for a Russian attack on Ukraine"
Ukrainian media resource "Apostrophe" declares that the report of the private American intelligence structure Stratfor about the situation in Donbass and its probable development was at the disposal of its employees. The report speaks of six scenarios for the future course of events, all of which are associated with the “attack on Ukraine”.
Stratfor experts say "the lack of political success of the Kremlin in the Ukrainian question." This is supposedly and can lead to the fact that Russia will nevertheless invade Ukraine.
As the main scenario of the "invasion" in Stratfor see "corridor (bridge) to the Crimea":
It is noted that if the population of Ukraine will meet the Russian troops relatively loyally, then Russia for “suppressing anti-Russian discontent” expressed by the minority may need no more than 4,2 thousand troops. If there is no loyalty, then - in 10 times more.
The second scenario: complete cutting off of the Black Sea territories from Ukraine: from Novoazovsk to Odessa and Illichivsk. At the same time, Stratfor writes that such an operation by Russia can be completed within 11-14 days.
The third scenario: the division of Ukraine along the Dnieper, to which Russia "can send up to 135 thousands of servicemen." On the "conquest" of Ukraine, Russia is also given 2 weeks.
Three other scenarios are associated with the expansion of the borders of the DPR and the LPR and “destabilization in the border areas”.
Stratfor:
Interesting, must be, reading for Ukrainian users. UkroSMI immediately reprinted the report from the Apostroph, without bothering to receive information about the date of its real release. Not taken care to identify the publication date and many media in the Russian Federation (for example, Gazeta.ru). And the date is funny ... This report, which now scare each other with the media in Ukraine and the liberal press of Russia, Stratfor published another 9 March ...
Stratfor experts say "the lack of political success of the Kremlin in the Ukrainian question." This is supposedly and can lead to the fact that Russia will nevertheless invade Ukraine.
As the main scenario of the "invasion" in Stratfor see "corridor (bridge) to the Crimea":
In this case, we assume that the developers of the offensive plan will make the front wide enough to provide the Crimea with water from the Dnieper. It turns out that the line of defense will pass along the river. This will allow to establish a land bridge with a peninsula, as well as to exclude further isolation of the Crimea.
It is noted that if the population of Ukraine will meet the Russian troops relatively loyally, then Russia for “suppressing anti-Russian discontent” expressed by the minority may need no more than 4,2 thousand troops. If there is no loyalty, then - in 10 times more.
The second scenario: complete cutting off of the Black Sea territories from Ukraine: from Novoazovsk to Odessa and Illichivsk. At the same time, Stratfor writes that such an operation by Russia can be completed within 11-14 days.
The third scenario: the division of Ukraine along the Dnieper, to which Russia "can send up to 135 thousands of servicemen." On the "conquest" of Ukraine, Russia is also given 2 weeks.
Three other scenarios are associated with the expansion of the borders of the DPR and the LPR and “destabilization in the border areas”.
Stratfor:
Each of the scenarios is executable. But they all have flaws. In addition to the geopolitical achievements that Russia can achieve by embarking on a scenario of an attack on Ukraine, the leadership of the Russian Federation should also consider the consequences of large-scale intervention in the conflict by the United States or NATO. This intervention will doom the Russian Federation to failure. However, the question remains: will the West want to interfere? The United States and NATO have no obligation to protect Ukraine in the event of an open Russian attack. In fact, it seems more likely that NATO will not directly intervene in the conflict. The West may introduce new sanctions that will bring the Russian economy to its knees. Even if the West does not take direct part in the hostilities, it will still be able to take the remaining parts of Ukraine under its care, which levels the Kremlin’s attempts to make Ukraine a buffer zone. In addition, more stringent sanctions will be imposed on the Russian Federation. And if Russia considers economic recovery to be its priority, the country's leadership will be forced to look for ways to ease restrictive measures. Obviously, for this you will need to soften their position in Ukraine.
Interesting, must be, reading for Ukrainian users. UkroSMI immediately reprinted the report from the Apostroph, without bothering to receive information about the date of its real release. Not taken care to identify the publication date and many media in the Russian Federation (for example, Gazeta.ru). And the date is funny ... This report, which now scare each other with the media in Ukraine and the liberal press of Russia, Stratfor published another 9 March ...
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