National security and military policy of Russia in recent years
The world is changing fast. More recently, talking about "the end stories”, But now it is obvious that they hurried - the“ big story ”returns to the planet. The geopolitical principles and principles that seemed solid even a dozen years ago are now destroyed. The areas of interest of a number of states that in the past were empires, are again becoming global in scope. New political alliances are being created, military conflicts and revolutions begin. Some analysts talked about the proximity of the new world war.
Therefore, it is worth considering the military-strategic position of the Russian Federation and understand what threatens us, whether the state’s defense capability has strengthened over the past decade.
Russian military doctrine
After the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Armed Forces lost their bearings, against the background of clear actions by the US and NATO in its expansion to the East, Moscow pursued a course that can be called capitulatory. The document entitled “On the Basics of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation”, which was signed by Boris Yeltsin in 1993, said that the Russian Federation had no external enemies, the main emphasis was placed on disarmament, especially in the field of strategic armaments. In fact, Moscow carried out the demilitarization of Russia, having suffered a defeat in the unofficial Third World War - the Cold War. The document said that the main threats to the security of the Russian Federation lie within the country, some of them were identified - the internal political instability of the state, social destabilization, mass protest moods of the population. The army was aimed at fulfilling police functions, which was confirmed in October 1993, when a popular uprising was suppressed in Moscow, and the state parliament was shot.
The military doctrine of the 2000 of the year was already fundamentally different. As a potential threat, it talked about the policy of the North Atlantic Alliance, about the unfriendly actions of some states, about the arms race, and building up the military capabilities of countries. Moscow officially announced that it was ready to use nuclear weapon, to contain large-scale aggression with the use of conventional weapons, threatening the existence of Russia.
5 February 2010 was adopted by the new military doctrine of the Russian Federation. Among the main external military dangers for Russia, it speaks of a desire to give NATO’s power potential global functions that are implemented in violation of international law to bring the Alliance’s military infrastructure closer to Russia's borders, including through the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It is said about attempts to destabilize the situation in individual countries and regions of the planet and thus undermine strategic stability. On the deployment and build-up of foreign military contingents in the territories adjacent to Russia and its allies, as well as in the adjacent maritime areas. Russia is threatened with the creation and deployment of strategic missile defense systems, the deployment of strategic non-nuclear high-precision weapons systems, the militarization of space; territorial claims against the Russian Federation and its allies, interference of other countries in their internal affairs; the presence or occurrence of hotbeds and the escalation of armed conflicts in adjacent territories.
The peculiarity of the document is that Moscow now allows the use of nuclear weapons not only in a large-scale war, but also in a regional one if it threatens the existence of the Russian state.
In principle, everything is clear with the 90 years of the 20th century - Russia at that time was de facto a semi-colony, a state with limited sovereignty. There was the destruction of weapons, the military-industrial complex, strategic design bureaus, scientific research institutes, the scientific base, the army was rapidly collapsing.
In 2000, the process was a two-way process. So, along with the desire to restore military-patriotic education in the country by patriotic slogans, talking about “raising Russia from its knees” (I remind you that in 90-s the word “patriot” itself became almost abusive), new parties began to enter the army ( modernized Soviet armaments, and negative trends launched during the Yeltsin era can be noted.
It was during Putin’s rule that during 2003 — 2007, all the RT-23UTT missiles of the well-done Molodets combat missile complex (according to the NATO classification SS-24 Scalpel), which were armed with the Strategic Missile Forces of the Armed Forces of Russia, were removed from service and destroyed . During the decommissioning of the Russian Federation, there were 3 missile divisions armed with BZHRK with RT-23UTTH ICBMs (in Kostroma Region, Perm and Krasnoyarsk Territories), all 12 trains with 36 launchers.
By the beginning of 2002, the main Soviet and then the most important center of radio interception of the Russian Armed Forces was liquidated - the radio-electronic center in Lourdes (the southern suburb of Cuban Havana). In the same year, our Armed Forces left the military base in Vietnam, in the city of Cam Ranh. It was a serious loss, because due to the natural conditions this port is considered one of the best deep-water ports of the World Ocean. Thanks to this base, we strengthened our military presence in the Asia-Pacific region and the Indian Ocean zone. Kamrani had a naval base, a fleet logistics center and an air force base. After our departure to Cam Ranh, the US and India showed interest. In recent years, the possibility of restoring the base was also discussed in the Russian Federation. The main motive for which we left these bases is economic, cost savings.
If in the 90s all the reforming could be described in one word - contraction, then after the 2008 war of the year, several positive changes can be noted. This war has become a kind of “kick” in the political leadership of the Russian Federation, it is forced to self-determine: either Moscow still fulfills the attitudes of the West, or begins to pursue a nationally oriented policy, external and internal.
Apparently, the last example with the dismissal of Kudrin from all posts is very indicative, the choice is made right. In the field of military construction, we now see not only destructive, but also constructive motives — we accepted and (with grief in half) began to fulfill the Russian state armaments program until 2020, contracts for airplanes, helicopters, ships, armored vehicles, arms were entered into the troops . They are trying to revive the sergeant corps, to solve the problems of the officer corps. Brigades, as the basis of the Armed Forces, with their disadvantages, have a number of advantages. The military budget of Russia finally corresponds to its status as a great power. They are trying to strengthen the professional level of the army by increasing the number of private and non-commissioned officers serving on a contract basis.
The desire to create special “Arctic forces” was expressed, in view of the heightened attention of the world community to the Arctic zone is the right step. In response to the increased pressure from Japan over the allegedly “northern territories” (part of the Kuril Ridge), a program is being developed to strengthen the military presence on the islands and modernize the garrisons there. Kuril garrisons reinforced armored vehicles and air defense systems.
The agreements on the extension of our base in Armenia (free of charge) were signed, the bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia are being strengthened - their legal status has been settled. This strengthened our position in the Caucasus.
The work in the field of the CSTO has intensified, the proof of this is the proposals of Alexander Lukashenko and the latest exercises “Union-2011 Shield”.
Surprisingly (after almost two decades of neglect and destruction), there are signs of increasing attention to patriotic education on Russian TV, for example, the appearance of the Special Task program (it is clear that there can be a lot of complaints about the program, but the direction itself is absolutely correct).
Main external threats
The threat of conflict with the West. It is clear that a large-scale war, at least in the short term, is unlikely. But then “test” Russia for strength, following the example of 2008 of the year, the West is quite capable. For this, the military potential of Georgia has been restored, and the chain dog of Washington - Saakashvili - will gladly fulfill the request of the "friends". Another scenario is connected with Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan has created a very impressive military potential (for the South Caucasus) and can use it. Turkey will be drawn into the conflict, and through it, NATO and Russia. There is a small chance of a conflict with Finland, Finnish nationalists almost directly demand to “return” Karelia.
Confrontation with the West can begin under the scenario of the collapse of Ukraine, when Turkey declares its rights to the Crimean peninsula, and Hungary, Romania, Poland to its “pieces” of the Ukrainian state. The same process over Tymoshenko, the activization of Ukrainian neo-Nazis is the preparation of this scenario.
Another area where the strategic interests of the West and Russia may collide is the Arctic region. With its natural resources, the Northern Sea Route.
The possibility of a new Russian-Turkish war. In connection with the "neo-Ottoman" plans of the Turkish political elite, conflict in the medium and long term is very likely. Especially considering the matrix of Russian-Turkish relations. We have zones where the interests of the two powers intersect: Syria, the Balkan Peninsula, the Southern and Northern Caucasus, the Crimean Peninsula.
Therefore, units of the Russian Armed Forces in the southern strategic direction should be prepared not only for guerrilla war in the vast Caucasus and Central Asia, but also for a clash with a powerful army of an industrial-type power. Modernization of the Black Sea Fleet is also vital.
The possibility of the Caucasian and Central Asian fronts. In the North Caucasus, the possibility of a new war (a large-scale "counter-terrorist operation") remains. The map of radical Islam in Russia will continue to be played by forces from the outside - Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States.
Therefore, the Russian army must be ready to respond to this challenge, the possibility of such a war exists in the vast Central Asia. There it is critically important for us to keep at least Kazakhstan. Although we must try to contain the enemy on the far frontiers - on the borders of Tajikistan.
China. We need to seek a “strategic partnership” with the Middle Kingdom, we have a common enemy who wants to dismember Russia and China. A strong Russia may not be afraid of hitting the Chinese. Although it is clear that we must be prepared for the scenario of a war with the PRC, both of a local nature and of a large-scale one. The General Staff and the army for this purpose exist to repel any threat to the Russian state.
Japan. Our potential enemy in the eastern strategic direction, which is constantly increasing its capabilities for a lightning strike and conducting a large-scale amphibious assault operation. Therefore, the Pacific Fleet, the garrisons of the Kuriles, Sakhalin, and the Far East must be ready to repel this strike and defeat Japan without the use of nuclear weapons.
Given the patterns of the history of the wars of Japan, samurai can strike a sudden blow, without warning. If they consider the moment profitable for themselves.
Thus, the illusions about the humane world must be forgotten, as harmful inventions, only a strong Russian army and navy can ensure the security of our people and state in this rapidly changing world.
- Alexander Samsonov
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