Erdogan’s failure, or “In the end, the Queen is responsible”
At the elections held in Turkey, the Justice and Development Party won only about 41% of votes. This will give the 258 party seats in parliament. However, in order to form a government alone, you need to get at least 276 mandates. Earlier, the AKP controlled 327 seats in parliament. Thus, the Justice and Development Party will be forced to form a coalition for the first time since 2003, and R. T. Erdogan will most likely have to say goodbye to the dream of rewriting the constitution and turning Turkey into a presidential republic.
The Justice and Development Party, whose “founding father” is the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, received the entire 258 seats in parliament as a result of the elections, which gave the experts the right to talk about the defeat of the AKP and personally Erdogan. Indeed, the party lost its ruling status, with which it did not part with 2003, when Erdogan first took the post of prime minister.
Now the party is headed by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who previously worked as president. Davutoglu and Erdogan are a Turkish domineering tandem. However, a durable tandem like the one demonstrated by Putin and Medvedev, they failed. Analysts - both Russian, and Western, and Turkish - earlier compared Erdogan with Putin for a reason. But now in these comparisons will have to put an end. Erdogan’s career curve seems to have gone down. At least, there will be no presidential republic and “sultan” power in Turkey. Moreover, Erdogan and the AKP will have to reckon with opposition sentiment, which led to a reduction in the electorate of the party in the elections. Also, the party will have to make parliamentary decisions as part of a coalition, and not alone, as more than twelve years lasted. “Erdogan, move over,” said the Turkish people with their vote.
In addition to all this, there are also difficulties with the coalition. Nobody was willing to deal with Erdogan in the parliament.
If the Justice and Development Party got 40,8% of votes and 258 seats in parliament, then the rival center-left People's Republican Party has 25% votes and 132 seats. The National Movement Party received 16,4% and 80 seats, and the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party received 13,1% and 80 seats. These are preliminary results; the final will be announced only next week after appeals, indicates RIA News".
The difficulty is that all three parties that have passed in the Majlis, do not want to have anything to do with the AKP. Analysts think that the AKP will have to somehow negotiate with the nationalists (the National Movement Party).
According to "Russian newspaper", the leaders of the three opposition parties, which also went to parliament, declared their unwillingness to compromise with the AKP.
Another minus for Erdogan is the Democratic Party of Peoples, representing the interests of minorities (especially the Kurds) in the Majlis. Her result - about 13% of votes. In fact, a new political force appeared in Turkey.
Doctor historical Sci., a member of the scientific council of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Alexei Malashenko, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that he could change in Turkey after these elections. “Apparently, there will be a coalition,” he said. - Since the ruling Justice and Development Party lost (they got fewer votes than before), everything will depend on different combinations. It is still very difficult to talk about what will happen next. Russian-Turkish relations are still better than Russia's relations with some other states. But the Turks are playing their own game, proceeding from their own interests. It is known what problems arise with gas flows. Therefore, I think a variant of mutual adaptation will be found. "
By the way, President Putin congratulated Erdogan the day after the election.
As transmits RBC With reference to the Kremlin’s press service, Vladimir Putin congratulated the head of Turkey on the victory of the Justice and Development Party in parliamentary elections.
A telephone conversation between the leaders of the two states took place on the initiative of the Russian president. Putin and Erdogan discussed issues of partnership between countries, the development of joint energy projects and preparations for the sixth meeting of the Council of Cooperation of the highest level between Russia and Turkey.
And yet it is not a victory.
In the Turkish Parliament - 550 seats. The party that holds the absolute majority (more than 2 / 3 of all the seats) has broad powers and can even change the constitution without a referendum. It was this right that the Justice and Development Party, headed by Davutoglu, Erdogan’s ally, was counting on to take advantage of. But it is precisely this desire for unlimited power that, it is believed, led to opposition protests and a decline in the popularity of both the AKP and Erdogan.
As the newspaper reminds "Sight", Erdogan had serious plans: it was assumed that the AKP would get 367 seats and make changes to the basic law of the country - would make the republic presidential. Even 330 seats would be enough: a party representing a constitutional majority would have the right to initiate appropriate changes to the Basic Law, without coordinating them with other parliamentary parties. True, in this case would have to hold a referendum. Now everything is much worse for the AKP: proposals for changing the constitution must be coordinated with the coalition members, and success is not expected here. Why? Because all the parties that went to the Majlis, had previously opposed amending the constitution.
They didn’t like the opposition and the statements of Erdogan, in which he argued that in after changing the constitution, Turkey would become like ... the UK. "In the end, the responsibility of the Queen is", - quotes Gazeta.ru Erdogan, who explained to the Turks how the British political system is structured.
According to the senior research associate of the IMEMO, turkologist Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, who answered the questions from Gazety.ru, “voters made sure that Erdogan, who is often called the“ Sultan ”, did not succeed in turning Republican Turkey into an empire.
Factors against the deterioration of the economic situation and the conflict in Syria worked against the “sultan” (tens of thousands of refugees poured into Turkey, and radical Islamist groups intensified on the southern borders).
The expert suggests that members of the National Movement Party can become JDP coalition partners. The analyst compares this nationalist party with the Ukrainian “Right Sector”: “These are supernationalists, but in Turkey the political palette is quite variegated, and various coalitions are possible.”
Erdogan will face unprecedented difficulties in forming a coalition, said the director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, Semen Bagdasarov. “The situation is interesting,” the expert told the newspaper "Sight". - It would not have had to hold another election. This option is now very real. If there is another election, the situation will be the same as it is now, and maybe even worse for the Justice and Development Party. ”
So, the next week will show whether Erdogan is able to negotiate with one of his rivals in parliament. If even one of the opponents of the AKP goes to the "bargaining", then the question of changing the constitution may be the subject of negotiations. Coalitioners, fearing the president with new elections, may well force Erdogan to at least temporarily abandon his plans for rewriting the country's main law.
By the way, the AKP worked on the new draft of the constitution for two years.
The Justice and Development Party, whose “founding father” is the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, received the entire 258 seats in parliament as a result of the elections, which gave the experts the right to talk about the defeat of the AKP and personally Erdogan. Indeed, the party lost its ruling status, with which it did not part with 2003, when Erdogan first took the post of prime minister.
Now the party is headed by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who previously worked as president. Davutoglu and Erdogan are a Turkish domineering tandem. However, a durable tandem like the one demonstrated by Putin and Medvedev, they failed. Analysts - both Russian, and Western, and Turkish - earlier compared Erdogan with Putin for a reason. But now in these comparisons will have to put an end. Erdogan’s career curve seems to have gone down. At least, there will be no presidential republic and “sultan” power in Turkey. Moreover, Erdogan and the AKP will have to reckon with opposition sentiment, which led to a reduction in the electorate of the party in the elections. Also, the party will have to make parliamentary decisions as part of a coalition, and not alone, as more than twelve years lasted. “Erdogan, move over,” said the Turkish people with their vote.
In addition to all this, there are also difficulties with the coalition. Nobody was willing to deal with Erdogan in the parliament.
If the Justice and Development Party got 40,8% of votes and 258 seats in parliament, then the rival center-left People's Republican Party has 25% votes and 132 seats. The National Movement Party received 16,4% and 80 seats, and the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party received 13,1% and 80 seats. These are preliminary results; the final will be announced only next week after appeals, indicates RIA News".
The difficulty is that all three parties that have passed in the Majlis, do not want to have anything to do with the AKP. Analysts think that the AKP will have to somehow negotiate with the nationalists (the National Movement Party).
According to "Russian newspaper", the leaders of the three opposition parties, which also went to parliament, declared their unwillingness to compromise with the AKP.
Another minus for Erdogan is the Democratic Party of Peoples, representing the interests of minorities (especially the Kurds) in the Majlis. Her result - about 13% of votes. In fact, a new political force appeared in Turkey.
Doctor historical Sci., a member of the scientific council of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Alexei Malashenko, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that he could change in Turkey after these elections. “Apparently, there will be a coalition,” he said. - Since the ruling Justice and Development Party lost (they got fewer votes than before), everything will depend on different combinations. It is still very difficult to talk about what will happen next. Russian-Turkish relations are still better than Russia's relations with some other states. But the Turks are playing their own game, proceeding from their own interests. It is known what problems arise with gas flows. Therefore, I think a variant of mutual adaptation will be found. "
By the way, President Putin congratulated Erdogan the day after the election.
As transmits RBC With reference to the Kremlin’s press service, Vladimir Putin congratulated the head of Turkey on the victory of the Justice and Development Party in parliamentary elections.
A telephone conversation between the leaders of the two states took place on the initiative of the Russian president. Putin and Erdogan discussed issues of partnership between countries, the development of joint energy projects and preparations for the sixth meeting of the Council of Cooperation of the highest level between Russia and Turkey.
And yet it is not a victory.
In the Turkish Parliament - 550 seats. The party that holds the absolute majority (more than 2 / 3 of all the seats) has broad powers and can even change the constitution without a referendum. It was this right that the Justice and Development Party, headed by Davutoglu, Erdogan’s ally, was counting on to take advantage of. But it is precisely this desire for unlimited power that, it is believed, led to opposition protests and a decline in the popularity of both the AKP and Erdogan.
As the newspaper reminds "Sight", Erdogan had serious plans: it was assumed that the AKP would get 367 seats and make changes to the basic law of the country - would make the republic presidential. Even 330 seats would be enough: a party representing a constitutional majority would have the right to initiate appropriate changes to the Basic Law, without coordinating them with other parliamentary parties. True, in this case would have to hold a referendum. Now everything is much worse for the AKP: proposals for changing the constitution must be coordinated with the coalition members, and success is not expected here. Why? Because all the parties that went to the Majlis, had previously opposed amending the constitution.
They didn’t like the opposition and the statements of Erdogan, in which he argued that in after changing the constitution, Turkey would become like ... the UK. "In the end, the responsibility of the Queen is", - quotes Gazeta.ru Erdogan, who explained to the Turks how the British political system is structured.
According to the senior research associate of the IMEMO, turkologist Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, who answered the questions from Gazety.ru, “voters made sure that Erdogan, who is often called the“ Sultan ”, did not succeed in turning Republican Turkey into an empire.
Factors against the deterioration of the economic situation and the conflict in Syria worked against the “sultan” (tens of thousands of refugees poured into Turkey, and radical Islamist groups intensified on the southern borders).
The expert suggests that members of the National Movement Party can become JDP coalition partners. The analyst compares this nationalist party with the Ukrainian “Right Sector”: “These are supernationalists, but in Turkey the political palette is quite variegated, and various coalitions are possible.”
Erdogan will face unprecedented difficulties in forming a coalition, said the director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, Semen Bagdasarov. “The situation is interesting,” the expert told the newspaper "Sight". - It would not have had to hold another election. This option is now very real. If there is another election, the situation will be the same as it is now, and maybe even worse for the Justice and Development Party. ”
So, the next week will show whether Erdogan is able to negotiate with one of his rivals in parliament. If even one of the opponents of the AKP goes to the "bargaining", then the question of changing the constitution may be the subject of negotiations. Coalitioners, fearing the president with new elections, may well force Erdogan to at least temporarily abandon his plans for rewriting the country's main law.
By the way, the AKP worked on the new draft of the constitution for two years.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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