Will Israel succeed in celebrating its centenary?

Will Israel succeed in celebrating its centenary?Life has put the Israelis before a responsible choice: either Israel will make a real fortress out of its homeland, or the Jewish state will weaken so much that a federation will emerge on its territory that can soon turn into a purely Palestinian state.


Few people doubt that one day a full-fledged Palestinian state will appear on the political map of the world. And this day is inexorably approaching, and the wave of "Arab coups", most likely, will significantly speed up its creation.

When looking at the situation in the long term, the main question is not so much the very likelihood of the existence or viability of the Palestinian state, which should be taken for granted as the ability of Israel itself to survive. The question arises whether Israel will continue to exist as a Jewish state in 2048, the day of the proposed centenary since its foundation?

The essence of the issue is the problem of the survival of Israel, and is it even possible? In this formulation of the question, there are some, but small, reasons for doubting that in the future we will be able to see the state of Israel on the world political stage in a constant state.

One of the concerns is the vulnerability of its borders. Despite the fact that huge sums are spent from the state budget on security and strengthening of defense, as well as taking measures to erect physical barriers along the border line of the Jewish state with the Palestinian Authority, the situation on the other borders of Israel may worsen. Palestinians and Syrians in May and June 2011, the border with Israel was broken several times. And, since there were quite a lot of violators, the commanders of the Israeli troops were obliged to give an order to open fire, not at all wanting to kill dozens of young guys.

The situation is similar on the southern borders of Israel, in the border zone with Egypt, but the situation here is much more uncontrollable. The territory of the Sinai Peninsula is very extensive, and it is very difficult to patrol it. The effectiveness of the security system from the Egyptian side has fallen significantly, which is a side effect of the fall of the Hosni Mubarak regime, as a result: several attacks on Israeli convoys in the Negev desert. In the event of a wave of popular uprisings from Syria and Egypt to the territory of Jordan or the Palestinian Authority, Israel will face even worse consequences.

However, the presence of serious problems in the field of border security is not the only danger to Israel. Modern Israel is surrounded by countries with a young and fairly fast growing population, which makes the demographic situation in the region not the best way for the Jewish state. It is absolutely obvious that changing current trends is not easy at all. Therefore, it may very well be that Israel will have to deal with the construction of impregnable fortifications, like those located on the US-Mexican border. But the adoption of these measures to strengthen the borders will require huge investments from Israel, and besides this will isolate the state from the outside world, which will have a negative impact on everyday life inside the country.

Another reason that does not allow the Israelis to look to the future with confidence is the political consequences of the “Arab spring”. Fears of the possibility of Islamist regimes coming to power in Arab countries, who hate Israel fiercely and are ready for decisive action, are still relevant today.

In addition, under the influence of the events of the “Arab spring” the Palestinians became more self-confident, as evidenced by the statement made by Mr. Abbas in the UN demanding to recognize a Palestinian state. As a result, there is a gradual shift in the political balance in the region.

The third reason for doubting the future fate of Israel is the internal state of the state itself. The spirit of the pioneers is gradually fading away, and the Holocaust is losing ground as a unifying idea; therefore, Israel is no longer the state it was 60, 20 or even 10 years ago. Demographic trends show that change is inevitable, and the most rapidly growing categories of the population will be Orthodox Jews, Arabs and the second generation of immigrants from Russia. Over the next 30 anniversary, the development of the following trends is likely: the split of Israeli society will intensify, the population growth rate will decrease, and the state will become more closed and warlike than today. At the same time, the financial capacity of the state may deteriorate significantly, and citizens may lose their sense of duty, which previously forced young people to defend their homeland from weapons in hand, no questions asked.

Imagine Israel with problem borders, residents who are unable or unwilling to fight, as before, surrounded by aggressive and determined countries that also have chaos. It is worth looking at such a country, and questions about its viability will arise. Therefore, Israelis may soon have a difficult choice - either their state becomes a real fortress, or it becomes so weak that the emergence of a federation with a nascent Palestinian state seems quite likely, simply speaking, the implementation of the notorious “concept of a single state” by other means.

In the case of those who have the opportunity: young, educated and cosmopolitan citizens are likely to try to arrange their destiny in other countries, and their homeland, the dream of their ancestors to turn into an outer shell. The emotional slogan “Next year - to Jerusalem” will become an object of nostalgia, a dream that has not come true, and the noble impulses will die away, having met with the harsh demographic and geopolitical realities.
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  1. lightforcer
    lightforcer 15 October 2011 10: 09 New
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    Israel must be. Brave couch fighters against the Zionists and the world government do not understand that it is better to be friends with Jews than with Muslim fanatics. In the USSR, Jews ceased to love only because they took a capitalist orientation.
  2. dimarm74
    dimarm74 15 October 2011 13: 02 New
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    Return let them go to Russia, the Jews are normal people in the bulk ... and not fools. Let them be better ... than Caucasians of all stripes ....
  3. Tyumen
    Tyumen 15 October 2011 15: 20 New
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    Stalin is prudent, cautious and cunning. While he is in power, there is nothing to fear.
    But the situation will change as soon as he dies, since the Jews, now pushed into second and third places, will immediately crawl forward again. A. Hitler. 1939

    Has anything changed since then? Is today's Russia not an example? Two idiots on top, how long?
  4. mitrich
    mitrich 15 October 2011 16: 05 New
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    The existence of the state of Israel is now FAVORABLE to the whole world, since the fundamental and global threat to humanity is Islamic fundamentalism. Imagine for a moment that there is no Israel, we immediately get two centers of power in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia (Sunnis, and with a Wahhabi soul, because Salafism is the state religion of the SA), and Iran (Shiites).
    So, despite all the ideological differences between the USSR and the Jews in the past, Israel is the island that draws all the energy and hatred of Islamic fundamentals onto itself.
    1. Sergh
      Sergh 15 October 2011 19: 50 New
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      So beneficial that even the Jews themselves do not represent. And what the author writes at the end is ... Israel is so strong for them (Palestine, Turkey ...) that only a competent person can understand that Israel will not be omitted now. If it’s a mess, then a lot of people will come to Israel to help, their own infrastructure of military production, this is very serious. Besides Turkey, no one will get to the Jews now, and they’re baloobols, beggars. Palestine, this is a very big gang, that's all. And morality, you don’t need to talk at all, there’s nowhere to go for a Jew, they will fight to the fullest. And if that begins, they will force these artadoxes to collect the shells on the front line.
      1. Insurgent
        Insurgent 15 October 2011 21: 24 New
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        Yeah, you’ll force them to these orthadoxes, they’ll dump the cartridges in most of them.
  5. fedor
    fedor 15 October 2011 18: 09 New
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    I completely agree with mitrich. Israel is a serious counterbalance to Islamic fundamentalists, which is the main threat not only to Russia, but to the whole world! It should (Israel) support all non-Muslim countries in Europe and Asia.
    1. slan
      slan 16 October 2011 17: 34 New
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      The answer to the question is ambiguous: who is the main enemy of Russia in the Caucasus: the Judeo-English or the Islamic fundamentalists? I apologize if I offend anyone, but the logic "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" is the lot of savages.
      1. Denis 16 October 2011 21: 10 New
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        all who are not friends are enemies
        and Russia has two allies, the army and the navy
  6. nnz226 15 October 2011 19: 04 New
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    The internal problem of Israel is just in Orthodox Jews, they breed like rabbits, but they don’t want to do a damn thing, including in the army. The country spends a lot of money on their maintenance! It's time for the "kids" to engage in active, not religious, life in the state, and bear the hardships of life (taxes, work, defense) along with all citizens of Israel. And then they do not want to work on Saturday for religious reasons, and they interfere with others. But religion doesn’t interfere with throwing stones at police officers on Saturday (also hard work) (there was a report on TV about some orthodox speech due to violation of the idleness regime on Saturday, so they fought with the police famously on a holy Saturday)
    1. Professor 15 October 2011 20: 37 New
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      So they already begin to serve, they are called up to separate battalions where there are no women.
      Nahal Haredi
      Nahal Haredi (Netzah Yehuda)
      Orthodox Special Forces of the IDF plunged terrorists into awe
      1. Insurgent
        Insurgent 15 October 2011 21: 26 New
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        They are orthox friends, try to arrest one such a crowd will gather a little
  7. kosmos84 15 October 2011 22: 00 New
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    Russians do not give up, Jews do not lose (interns (
  8. Klibanophoros 16 October 2011 04: 51 New
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    For me, so Israel has every chance to repeat the fate of the crusader states in the XII century - the County of Edes lasted 48 years, the Principality of Antioch - 170 years, the County of Tripoli - 184, the Kingdom of Jerusalem - 192 ...
    All of them rested only on bare military power ...
    1. His
      His 16 October 2011 17: 39 New
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      The country of the Jews is the United States. And they can always get there. Now in Israel itself, orthodox and former Soviet immigrants live, all the main Jews are in the United States
      1. slan
        slan 16 October 2011 17: 53 New
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        Exactly. In this sense, the article is frankly weak, a lot of blah about the secondary things and not a word about the essence. Israel is an extremely unstable entity, all of its military “power” is a soap bubble constantly fueled by the owners of the financial pyramid. And the question is correctly posed exclusively in this way: will the Jews manage to keep the world financial center in New York until 2048? For as soon as the "crazy" money from these tax collectors runs out, immediately the neighboring nations will tear them apart like a tusik heating pad. And then the Arabs will buy the best weapons, and the military instructors will be hired, since they themselves are not fighters, but for now everything rests on the dollar exclusively, and by no means on the military valor of burry and their ice.
      2. Professor 16 October 2011 18: 00 New
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        It's a little bad for you with the materiel ...
        About 6 million Jews live in Israel, of which about a million are immigrants from the former USSR and 8% are ultra Orthodox (and there are also quite a few immigrants among Orthodox). So that your digits do not converge.

        According to a 2004 Israel Central Bureau of Statistics study on Israelis aged over 18, 8% of Israeli Jews define themselves as haredim (or Ultra-Orthodox).
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel
    2. Insurgent
      Insurgent 16 October 2011 21: 06 New
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      Well, Israel has nuclear weapons, I think when there will be nothing to lose, he will use it
  9. Denis 16 October 2011 17: 06 New
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    note, and whom and when did they ask?
    these guys have proven their viability
    sorry for the USSR at one time, for the sake of various Arab "socialists", quarreled with them
  10. zol
    zol 17 October 2011 15: 17 New
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    But do not you think that the Wahhabis-Salafis, whom everyone here is afraid of, are in fact the offspring of the same West, or rather the puppeteers behind it, and, as you know, there are a lot of “poor” Jewry.
    1. Professor 17 October 2011 16: 21 New
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      The ancient Tajiks did not know about the existence of the Jews and therefore attributed all their hardships to the dark forces of nature. smile
  11. Denis 17 October 2011 18: 05 New
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    Quote: Professor
    The ancient Tajiks did not know about the existence of the Jews and therefore attributed all their hardships to the dark forces of nature.

    You would like to throw this little idea to their non-existent prezik-rahmon, ready to kiss, since it’s not disgusting, would
    he is so worn with ide fix that he is the direct heir of the samonids, not Iran, Iraq or Pakistan, namely he
  12. SCORPIO
    SCORPIO 19 October 2011 09: 03 New
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    The article is not a literate science fiction writer or a malicious Islamist dreamer !!