Southern boiler: Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, PMR. Part of 1
Recently, the situation around the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic has attracted more attention. The situation is really difficult. Ukraine, despite the fact that there are enough problems inside it, suddenly turned its eyes towards the Transnistrian republic.
“Ukraine will do everything possible to help Moldova renew its territorial integrity and restore order in its territory,” Poroshenko said at a press conference in Kiev on June 5. “You know what the difference is between Transnistria and Donetsk: Transnistria has no common borders with Russia, it will be easier to establish order there. ”
According to him, assistance to Moldova in preserving its territorial integrity will be provided both as part of the negotiations in the “5 + 2” format (Moldova, Transdniestria, Russia, Ukraine, OSCE; observers of the United States and the European Union), and in other forms.
Earlier, Poroshenko has already taken the initiative to “unfreeze the conflict” in Transnistria. But on the "other forms" it makes sense to focus attention for a while.
Why would the president of a country that still cannot regain control over two, we can already say, former regions, suddenly decide to help with the restoration of the integrity of another country? Your problems are few?
His problems enough.
But, as Mr. Poroshenko correctly noted, the main problem in Novorossia is the presence of a border with Russia. And the second problem is that in Russia there are a huge number of Russians who for some reason do not want to calmly watch the Nazis kill their fellows.
In the Transnistrian republic everything is worse. There is no border with Russia. And there lives a huge number of citizens of this Russia itself. And with 1990 year. And all the actions directed by the leaders of Moldova and Ukraine are directed primarily against Russia. Which can be put in such conditions, in comparison with which Novorossia is flowers.
Let's try to look at the problem globally. As the task of a probable opponent.
We have sanctions, and no matter how we beat our breasts, sanctions harm us. Economically, everyone felt that life had become more difficult.
The issue of confrontation between NATO and Russia is being actively discussed. Not in Ukraine. Baltic. Catch frigates, submarines, aircraft.
We are forced to strengthen the Kaliningrad group, the Arctic group, the entire Western District is constantly on alert. The military presence in Belarus is also an important factor.
We actually have tension along the entire western border.
The presence of the "fifth column" is felt more and more every day. With the new trend: "Putin is good, but there are only traitors around."
The main task of our likely adversary is to organize an "explosion from the inside" in the image and likeness of the USSR. Tactics worked once, it requires only some change in the script.
Why does the problem of Transnistria suddenly pop up? Why there?
Unlike the moment of “freezing” the problem, when the most powerful 14 Guards Army stood in the Transdniestrian Republic, today there are a thousand-thousand group of peacekeepers.
The Moldovan parliament passed a law on EU integration. But its execution is impossible, as long as there is a PMR problem. This problem is solved in three ways.
1. Recognition of the independence of the PMR and the further entry of the PMR as a subject of the federation in the Russian Federation. This option would most of all suit the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic residents who, in 2006 year, voted for joining the Russian Federation.
It is worth recalling that on October 6 2006, the Russian State Duma adopted a resolution recognizing the Transdniestrian referendum on independence as legitimate.
2. International recognition of the PMR as a state. 20 years showed that the PMR has all the characteristics of the state.
3. The power solution to the problem in the style of the Serbian Krajina. The most likely option, no matter how it sounds. It is this option and try to provoke.
The third option is most suitable also because among the citizens of the PMR about a third are citizens of Russia.
At first it may seem that the most interested person is Moldova. However, this is not quite true.
If you look closely at what the Moldovan government has been doing over the past 10 years, the result is obvious. Moldova by hook or by crook is trying to become part of Romania. Accordingly, part of the EU. Therefore, it makes sense to consider not Moldova and Romania as two components, but as one.
Start drawing a possible script.
If Moldova tries to carry out an attack on the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic, then in the eyes of the whole world, this is in fact internal Moldavian squabbles. Indeed, there are many similarities between the PMR and New Russia. And Moldova and Ukraine.
What will be the reaction of the world community, it is easy to predict. Everything is already known in the Ukrainian example.
The likely attack will be carried out by the Armed Forces of Moldova. Naturally, this is not about 6,5 thousand Moldovan military personnel. It will most likely be about some PMCs. Who will act as "skirmishers" of the incident. And the Moldavian units may come into action later.
It is possible to analyze for a long time the correlation of the forces of the PMR and Moldova, but the comparison is not in favor of the latter. Both in quantitative and qualitative composition.
The army of Moldova is not capable of offensive action. Therefore, everything will be reduced to shelling and local actions using small weapons. The use of the Air Force is not discussed, since both armies do not have them. What can not be said about the air defense complexes, even if outdated.
The demonstration by Ukraine of readiness for entry into the conflict between Moldova and Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic, the accumulation of military equipment and artillery systems in the western regions suggest that the participation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the conflict is quite possible.
In this situation there is one negative point. The PMR has a rather inconvenient location - the territory of the country is narrow and long, and stretches along the territories of Moldova and Ukraine.
In case Ukraine joins the conflict, offensive actions are even optional. The Transdniestrian Army will find itself under crossfire all along the front line. And go the war that we have already seen in the New Russia.
And for the Transdniestrian fighters, the choice will be very small - either capitulation, or they will simply be destroyed by artillery.
Even the fact that in some places the width of the territory of the PMR reaches 11-12 km, and the accuracy of the Ukrainian gunners entered into the proverb, can play a role. Possible flights to the territory of Moldova will be qualified as strikes from the Transdniestrian army.
Recent events in the same Marinka showed that there are all the fears that such a situation could become a reality.
Marinka - reconnaissance in force.
Recent events in LDNR have shown that everything that happened on the opposition line between the republic’s militia and the Armed Forces of Ukraine was nothing more than "reconnaissance by force".
Every intelligence has any task. In our situation, the provocative actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had only one task: to find out how confident the defensive structures that they had erected during the next truce.
Is it possible to begin actions on the border with the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic without fear of a stab in the back from the militia.
The result is obvious. Can. The tasks of testing the APU for defense capability have been met.
And the columns of armored vehicles stretched to the teachings, to the western borders of Ukraine and in the Odessa region.
By all estimates, that the Moldovan army, that of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for all actions in the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic no more than three days. More, in principle, they can not afford. That is, during these three days, the PMR units and the Russian peacekeepers must either be destroyed or capitulate.
It is difficult to say whether Moldovan warriors will be able to make a head for three days. Ukrainians are quite possible.
It would be possible to talk about the participation of the Romanian troops, given that the Moldovan government adopted a resolution to allow the presence of the Romanian Armed Forces on its territory.
But the question "Is the destruction of the troops of a NATO member country on the territory of another state, not a NATO member, an act of aggression against the countries participating in the NATO bloc" may well become a stumbling block to the participation of Romania in this event.
And one more important aspect - the Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria act under the auspices of the mandate of the UN Security Council.
Ukraine cannot deliver direct artillery strikes on the territory of Transnistria and engage its troops, because this is formally Moldavia. In this conflict, Ukraine must be the “injured” party. So, provocations from the Moldovan side are possible.
Only Moldavia can be active. But it actually has no army that could have defeated the Transdniestrian army plus Russian units. But there is a rather strong (for this conflict) army of Romania, which will gladly give any number of volunteers that are required.
In LDNR a similar scheme actually works. Plus, here it will be possible to throw the troops of the Romanian nationalists to sweep the population and cover the passive sections of the front. The task of this group will not even break the enemy, but at least impose a positional war on him, which is disastrous for Transnistria in the medium term.
In any case, Russia will have to take steps in this direction. To ensure the safety of its citizens, to protect their peacekeepers. There is no doubt about what to answer in the event of a conflict.
We will talk about possible answers from Russia and Novorossia in the next part. Today the conclusion is the following: Transnistria is the last chance to draw Russia into the conflict in Ukraine.
“Ukraine will do everything possible to help Moldova renew its territorial integrity and restore order in its territory,” Poroshenko said at a press conference in Kiev on June 5. “You know what the difference is between Transnistria and Donetsk: Transnistria has no common borders with Russia, it will be easier to establish order there. ”
According to him, assistance to Moldova in preserving its territorial integrity will be provided both as part of the negotiations in the “5 + 2” format (Moldova, Transdniestria, Russia, Ukraine, OSCE; observers of the United States and the European Union), and in other forms.
Earlier, Poroshenko has already taken the initiative to “unfreeze the conflict” in Transnistria. But on the "other forms" it makes sense to focus attention for a while.
Why would the president of a country that still cannot regain control over two, we can already say, former regions, suddenly decide to help with the restoration of the integrity of another country? Your problems are few?
His problems enough.
But, as Mr. Poroshenko correctly noted, the main problem in Novorossia is the presence of a border with Russia. And the second problem is that in Russia there are a huge number of Russians who for some reason do not want to calmly watch the Nazis kill their fellows.
In the Transnistrian republic everything is worse. There is no border with Russia. And there lives a huge number of citizens of this Russia itself. And with 1990 year. And all the actions directed by the leaders of Moldova and Ukraine are directed primarily against Russia. Which can be put in such conditions, in comparison with which Novorossia is flowers.
Let's try to look at the problem globally. As the task of a probable opponent.
We have sanctions, and no matter how we beat our breasts, sanctions harm us. Economically, everyone felt that life had become more difficult.
The issue of confrontation between NATO and Russia is being actively discussed. Not in Ukraine. Baltic. Catch frigates, submarines, aircraft.
We are forced to strengthen the Kaliningrad group, the Arctic group, the entire Western District is constantly on alert. The military presence in Belarus is also an important factor.
We actually have tension along the entire western border.
The presence of the "fifth column" is felt more and more every day. With the new trend: "Putin is good, but there are only traitors around."
The main task of our likely adversary is to organize an "explosion from the inside" in the image and likeness of the USSR. Tactics worked once, it requires only some change in the script.
Why does the problem of Transnistria suddenly pop up? Why there?
Unlike the moment of “freezing” the problem, when the most powerful 14 Guards Army stood in the Transdniestrian Republic, today there are a thousand-thousand group of peacekeepers.
The Moldovan parliament passed a law on EU integration. But its execution is impossible, as long as there is a PMR problem. This problem is solved in three ways.
1. Recognition of the independence of the PMR and the further entry of the PMR as a subject of the federation in the Russian Federation. This option would most of all suit the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic residents who, in 2006 year, voted for joining the Russian Federation.
It is worth recalling that on October 6 2006, the Russian State Duma adopted a resolution recognizing the Transdniestrian referendum on independence as legitimate.
2. International recognition of the PMR as a state. 20 years showed that the PMR has all the characteristics of the state.
3. The power solution to the problem in the style of the Serbian Krajina. The most likely option, no matter how it sounds. It is this option and try to provoke.
The third option is most suitable also because among the citizens of the PMR about a third are citizens of Russia.
At first it may seem that the most interested person is Moldova. However, this is not quite true.
If you look closely at what the Moldovan government has been doing over the past 10 years, the result is obvious. Moldova by hook or by crook is trying to become part of Romania. Accordingly, part of the EU. Therefore, it makes sense to consider not Moldova and Romania as two components, but as one.
Start drawing a possible script.
If Moldova tries to carry out an attack on the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic, then in the eyes of the whole world, this is in fact internal Moldavian squabbles. Indeed, there are many similarities between the PMR and New Russia. And Moldova and Ukraine.
What will be the reaction of the world community, it is easy to predict. Everything is already known in the Ukrainian example.
The likely attack will be carried out by the Armed Forces of Moldova. Naturally, this is not about 6,5 thousand Moldovan military personnel. It will most likely be about some PMCs. Who will act as "skirmishers" of the incident. And the Moldavian units may come into action later.
It is possible to analyze for a long time the correlation of the forces of the PMR and Moldova, but the comparison is not in favor of the latter. Both in quantitative and qualitative composition.
The army of Moldova is not capable of offensive action. Therefore, everything will be reduced to shelling and local actions using small weapons. The use of the Air Force is not discussed, since both armies do not have them. What can not be said about the air defense complexes, even if outdated.
The demonstration by Ukraine of readiness for entry into the conflict between Moldova and Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic, the accumulation of military equipment and artillery systems in the western regions suggest that the participation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the conflict is quite possible.
In this situation there is one negative point. The PMR has a rather inconvenient location - the territory of the country is narrow and long, and stretches along the territories of Moldova and Ukraine.
In case Ukraine joins the conflict, offensive actions are even optional. The Transdniestrian Army will find itself under crossfire all along the front line. And go the war that we have already seen in the New Russia.
And for the Transdniestrian fighters, the choice will be very small - either capitulation, or they will simply be destroyed by artillery.
Even the fact that in some places the width of the territory of the PMR reaches 11-12 km, and the accuracy of the Ukrainian gunners entered into the proverb, can play a role. Possible flights to the territory of Moldova will be qualified as strikes from the Transdniestrian army.
Recent events in the same Marinka showed that there are all the fears that such a situation could become a reality.
Marinka - reconnaissance in force.
Recent events in LDNR have shown that everything that happened on the opposition line between the republic’s militia and the Armed Forces of Ukraine was nothing more than "reconnaissance by force".
Every intelligence has any task. In our situation, the provocative actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had only one task: to find out how confident the defensive structures that they had erected during the next truce.
Is it possible to begin actions on the border with the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic without fear of a stab in the back from the militia.
The result is obvious. Can. The tasks of testing the APU for defense capability have been met.
And the columns of armored vehicles stretched to the teachings, to the western borders of Ukraine and in the Odessa region.
By all estimates, that the Moldovan army, that of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for all actions in the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic no more than three days. More, in principle, they can not afford. That is, during these three days, the PMR units and the Russian peacekeepers must either be destroyed or capitulate.
It is difficult to say whether Moldovan warriors will be able to make a head for three days. Ukrainians are quite possible.
It would be possible to talk about the participation of the Romanian troops, given that the Moldovan government adopted a resolution to allow the presence of the Romanian Armed Forces on its territory.
But the question "Is the destruction of the troops of a NATO member country on the territory of another state, not a NATO member, an act of aggression against the countries participating in the NATO bloc" may well become a stumbling block to the participation of Romania in this event.
And one more important aspect - the Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria act under the auspices of the mandate of the UN Security Council.
Ukraine cannot deliver direct artillery strikes on the territory of Transnistria and engage its troops, because this is formally Moldavia. In this conflict, Ukraine must be the “injured” party. So, provocations from the Moldovan side are possible.
Only Moldavia can be active. But it actually has no army that could have defeated the Transdniestrian army plus Russian units. But there is a rather strong (for this conflict) army of Romania, which will gladly give any number of volunteers that are required.
In LDNR a similar scheme actually works. Plus, here it will be possible to throw the troops of the Romanian nationalists to sweep the population and cover the passive sections of the front. The task of this group will not even break the enemy, but at least impose a positional war on him, which is disastrous for Transnistria in the medium term.
In any case, Russia will have to take steps in this direction. To ensure the safety of its citizens, to protect their peacekeepers. There is no doubt about what to answer in the event of a conflict.
We will talk about possible answers from Russia and Novorossia in the next part. Today the conclusion is the following: Transnistria is the last chance to draw Russia into the conflict in Ukraine.
Information