The US is ready to intervene in the conflict between China and Vietnam. And Japan is ready to fight abroad
At the same time, the world’s attention is focused on two “fronts” of the growing global confrontation along the North-South and West-East lines, namely the Middle East and Ukraine, where radical Islamists and neo-Nazis (neo-Banderas) unleashed the war with the support of some Western elites interested in stirring up chaos in the vast expanses of Eurasia, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region is also gradually deteriorating.
So, two days ago there were two newstalking about the growth of military-strategic tensions in the Pacific. The United States and China exchanged notes on the pace and scope of Chinese projects for the development of disputed territories in the South China Sea. The quiet expansion of the Middle Kingdom causes well-founded concerns among neighbors who also claim to these territories, especially in Vietnam and the Philippines. But Japan lifted the ban on military operations abroad, which radically changes the country's security policy.
"Sand expansion" of the Middle Kingdom
China has found a non-standard move to strengthen its position in the South China Sea. Previously, because of the disputed territories, clashes occurred between the countries claiming them from time to time. Now, the Celestial Empire is simply building up the already existing islands and creating new ones. With the help of a giant excavator, the Chinese have created five new islands. As a result, Beijing strengthened its military-strategic and economic positions in the disputed area of the Spratly archipelago.
Where previously on the coral reefs there were very small concrete platforms, moorings, whole islands were poured with sand from the bottom of the sea, on which the Chinese built helipads, aviation runways, moorings and all the necessary infrastructure for receiving landing forces, the Air Force and the Navy. According to IHS Jane's Defense Weekly, "China has developed and is aggressively implementing a program to build fortifications in the very center of the Spratly Archipelago."
The Spratly Islands, like the Paracel Islands located just north of the island (also the disputed lands), are very small. This is only about a hundred islands, reefs, rocks, some of them are even flooded. Their total area is only about 5 square meters. km (the Paracel Islands have a little more - 8 sq. km). At the same time, the Chinese have already created about 4 square meters. km of land. However, the point is the strategic position of the islands. They have almost 1000 km of coastline, which allows fleet and aviation control almost the entire South China Sea. In addition, the islands discovered reserves of oil and natural gas. The sea is rich in biological resources. Given the rapid economic development of China and other countries of Southeast Asia (except the PRC, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei are claiming for the islands), as well as population growth, in which a large middle class has appeared, claiming a consumption level close to European and to the American population, hydrocarbons and bioresources are acquiring strategic importance. Namely, the issue of owning certain resources more than once has become a prerequisite for the start of large wars.
It is also worth noting that the most important communications of the PRC pass through the South China Sea. About 40 of thousands of vessels pass through the sea annually, and this transport hub provides 80% of hydrocarbon imports to East Asia. Marine imports of black gold account for about three quarters of all oil supplies to China (more than 40% of all oil consumed). Most of China’s oil is consumed from the Middle East and Africa. Almost all deliveries of liquefied natural gas also go through the South China Sea (the main suppliers of LNG are Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia and Qatar). Sea communications from the countries of the Middle East, Africa and the countries of the Pacific region (Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia) go through the South China Sea. There are supplies of other vital resources across the sea.
The islands before 1945 were formally part of the united French Indochina, which, in turn, was part of the French colonial empire. However, at that time no one was interested in the islands; there were no visible resources on them. There was no permanent population on the islands, only temporary fishermen. The French partially put them on the cards and calmed down on this. During the Second World War, the Japanese were the first to start building military infrastructure. They built a submarine supply point on one of the reefs. Then the ownership of Paracel and Spratly began to challenge several states at once. They occupied shreds of land, raised their flags, built platforms on the flooded rocks, “built up corals”. Takeoff platforms were erected here and there. They housed small garrisons.
Malaysia took possession of 4 islands, including the rather large by local standards, Layang-Layang, which built a naval base. Philippines own several islets. At the same time, Manila is very tough to defend its rights, irritably reacting to the provocative appearance of Chinese aircraft and ships. In recent years, the Philippines intensified military-technical and military-strategic cooperation with the United States. The military budget has been increased, with the help of the United States, the Navy, aviation and landing forces are being strengthened. Although militarily, the Philippines, despite loud statements by the military about its readiness to fight for the islands “to the last sailor and marine”, have no chance in a clash with huge China. All hope for political and military support of the United States. Taiwan and Brunei are not particularly active.
The main competitor of China is its historical the enemy is Vietnam. For Hanoi, this is a matter of state sovereignty and national honor. In the country of the island of Spratly, it is customary to officially name the "sacred and inseparable part of Vietnam." In 2014, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung convened a special meeting of historical scholars, where he urged them (in fact, demanded) to create a new comprehensive history of Vietnam, in which special attention would be paid to sovereignty over Spratly and Paracela. Amid a dispute over the islands in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (Vietnam), pogroms of Chinese establishments have already occurred. Hanoi is actively strengthening the armed forces, especially the fleet. Strengthens political ties with India and even with the USA, having forgotten old insults.
The Chinese and Vietnamese have repeatedly encountered in the area of disputed islands. In 1974, the Chinese pushed South Vietnam from several reefs. In 1988, the Vietnamese tried to drive out the Chinese garrisons and seize the whole archipelago. But suffered a defeat, losing a number of islands. Then there was some lull. China and Vietnam for a long time acted as allies in political matters, established close economic cooperation. China has become the largest investor in Vietnam. It seemed that the historical grievances are gone. But in the 2000s, several incidents occurred again. Relations between the two powers deteriorated. Hanoi began to seek support in India, to restore relations with the United States, again activated friendship with Russia (Gorbachev had previously destroyed it).
Celestial, as the economy and armed forces develop, leads an increasingly active foreign policy, challenging the United States and Japan, as well as scaring their neighbors, who fear the growth of China’s military might. The Chinese began to actively build artificial islands in the 2014 year, but the scandal broke out in 2015, when the pace of work became noticeable. The Tien Excavator operates 24 an hour a day and extracts about 4,5 thousand m³ of sand per hour from the sea day. This allowed the Chinese to change several reefs beyond recognition. If on the pictures of Hughes' reef from 1 February 2014, there was only a concrete platform with an area of 380 m², then in the pictures from 24 in January already 2015, an entire island with an area of 75 thousand m², where buildings and facilities are being built, appeared here. In legal terms, the new islands will not help China to stake out the disputed territory, since the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea communicates only claims to natural, not artificially created territories. However, militarily, the new islands will enhance the capabilities of the Chinese fleet and aircraft.
The position of the United States
Earlier, the United States has already announced the strengthening of political and military positions in the APR. Military cooperation with Australia, the Philippines, Japan, Vietnam and India was intensified. However, due to the growth of the war in the Middle East and the crisis in Ukraine, Washington was somewhat distracted. Currently, a new stage of revitalization of US attention to the Pacific has begun. In April, US President Barack Obama announced that the United States must dictate the rules of world trade, otherwise China will dictate them. The United States is actively working to create the Trans-Pacific Partnership, whose goal is to create a free trade zone in the APR.
In April, Admiral Harry Harris, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, said that the Chinese had already built about 4 square meters. km of land and called such actions "provocative" in relation to other countries in the region. 8 in May, the US authorities said that the Chinese have significantly expanded the construction of artificial islands that can be used for military purposes in disputed areas in the South China Sea.
On May 13, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter did not rule out sending warships and airplanes to the area of the disputed Spratly Archipelago, in order to ensure free navigation. The American media have allowed a "leak" of information that the United States allegedly can send ships to "maintain order" and "help allies." Thus, Washington sent a signal to Beijing, which could sharply react to the expansion of the Celestial Empire in the South China Sea.
On May 14, China expressed concern over relevant US statements and condemned the possible dispatch of US ships and aircraft to the area of disputed territories. In turn, US Secretary of State John Kerry during his visit to Beijing expressed concern about the pace and scope of China’s projects in the South China Sea region and called for “reducing tensions”. The head of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, replied that China would continue to "protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity." Both sides remained unconvinced.
It must be said that militarily the United States is not able to resist the expansion of China in the South China Sea. Even a strong squadron is not able to resist the Chinese forces, which rely on coastal infrastructure, including coastal airfields. American ships will be a good target for Chinese aircraft, ballistic missiles - "aircraft carrier killers" and submarines. But most importantly, the United States will not go into direct conflict with the Middle Kingdom. Certain forces in the United States want to set fire to Eurasia, as well as the Pacific Ocean, but so that the American empire is not at the forefront. Vietnam, the Philippines, India, Japan and other countries dissatisfied with the growth of the power of the PRC should play the role of infantry. In the interests of the United States and the backstage behind them, claiming world domination, is not a direct war, but a series of conflicts, revolutions that lead to the fragmentation of large states. The United States must stand above conflicts.
Japan is ready to fight abroad
No wonder that recently the former contender for leadership in the Asia-Pacific region - the Japanese empire, has stepped up its military construction. The Japanese abolished a number of restrictions on the development of the military-industrial complex, military exports, strengthened military contacts with the United States and a number of other countries (Great Britain, France, India, Australia, etc.). Japan is actively strengthening the fleet, including with the help of helicopter destroyers, which can also become aircraft-carrying ships, create airmobile forces. At the beginning of 2015, Tokyo approved the largest military budget in the entire history of the country - about $ 42 billion. The Japanese authorities have revised their military strategy in recent years. Now they see the main danger not in Russia, but in China and the DPRK. This forces Japan to pay special attention to naval construction, missile defense, and aviation development in order to be able to defend the disputed territories - the Senkaku Islands, which the Japanese actually own, but the Chinese claim to them.
14 May, the Japanese government approved the bill, which allows the country to conduct military operations abroad, that is, radically changes the security policy. As a result, the role of Tokyo in the military alliance of the United States and Japan is increasing. Japan can now use military force if an ally is attacked.
In late April, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the United States. The United States and Japan renewed the union. Japan has become a more active member of the alliance. Both powers decided to organize a permanent, unified government mechanism for coordinating the alliance, which should ensure a quick response at all phases from peacetime to unforeseen. Tokyo and Washington are going to more actively participate in humanitarian actions outside their borders. To this end, Washington promised Tokyo the most advanced systems. weapons. Tokyo has promised to adopt a new law, lifting the constitutional ban on Japan’s participation in collective self-defense operations. This allows Japan in the event of an attack on the United States to fight on the side of the Americans (this bill has already been passed). As a result, Japan gets the opportunity to fight in the United States and other allies.
At the same time, Washington promised to protect Japan at all costs. The American president called Japan’s “absolute” security guarantees. Obama made it clear that security guarantees extend not only to Japan itself, but also to areas disputed with China (Senkaku Islands).
Thus, according to American strategists, Japan should once again become the main opponent of China. At the same time, the anti-Chinese camp hopes to involve Vietnam and India, which also have disputed territories from the Middle Kingdom and are wary of the growth of the economic and military power of the PRC. The United States plans to stand over the possible conflict of the leading powers of the Asia-Pacific region.
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