And what else can we expect, if almost half of the domestic economy is a raw material component, depending on the global situation. When all the main levers of managing the financial structure of Russia are in the field of hydrocarbon production, there is no need to be surprised at sudden mood swings, even among analysts and specialists. If you look at what is happening in our economy today, it is more like a person sitting at a slot machine and waiting only for a win. When the machine "swallows" the bills, and does not give a win, the person starts saying that it is time to tie up with this gambling addiction and look for a job. But the "one-armed bandit" gives a small win, and the person forgets about finding a normal job again. The Russian economy of recent years is similar to this man-gamer. We constantly hope that oil prices will be such as to work, by and large, is not necessary. They say that the West will buy everything anyway, and where else can it go? But it is not so.
The latest economic crisis has shown the world that the West, like all other countries, can significantly reduce the use of oil and gas due to an unexpected financial collapse. The dependence is simple: a decrease in real incomes of citizens leads to a decrease in production volumes, and a decrease in production volumes in turn leads to a decrease in the use of the raw material component. As a result, the price of oil falls.
Our budget is set up in such a way that all its items will be fulfilled by the Government at oil prices at a level not lower than $ 98 per barrel. While prices for "black gold" keep a little above this limit. But now they are literally going along the line of separation: just below — and the financial abyss, with all that it implies. Private business and foreign investors caught a clear trend of dependence of the country's financial system on oil prices. After the MICEX and RTS indices inexorably crawled down, the outflow of capital from the country intensified. Analysts' forecasts about the ready outflow limit previously amounted to about $ 36 billions, and due to the volatility of the oil market and other reasons, about $ 9 billions went through the past 50 months of the year due to the volatility of the oil market. The prospect is not joyful.
Not happy news from China. According to statistical services, the growth of the most powerful Chinese economy is declining. This is another "bell", indicating that in the near future, oil prices are unlikely to grow, as China needs hydrocarbons on a smaller scale than even a couple of months ago.
The current situation on world markets is more like a swing, which with each subsequent swing sinking closer to the ground. One never knows, and these financial swings will start to “strike out” at the zero mark of growth, or even bury themselves in the ground of negative readings. If this is not stagnation, then what?
According to all forecasts, the oil price by the end of the year will “float” around the $ 100 dollars mark, which will not lead to noticeable problems in the Russian financial sector. But the beginning of 2012 does not promise anything good that could affect global production growth. Even the head of the American Fed, Mr. Bernanke, says that he does not see a way to solve the problem of unemployment. This means that United States enterprises are less in need of manpower, and this state of affairs leads to a further decline. As a result, oil prices in March-April, 2012, may sag even lower than 85 dollars, which in no way favors the Russian authorities. And such a price is already a direct route to the 2008 crisis.
Of course, one should not forget that the national debt of Russia today is much less than in that ill-fated 2008 year. And the financial system itself is somewhat more stable. At least, so say the representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation and the banking sector. But if the outflow of capital with the abandonment of Russian assets continues at the same level as it is now, then no sustainability will help our economy. This is the reality
During the week, Vladimir Putin stated that there are no risks for doing business in Russia, and that capital outflow is fueled only by far-fetched prerequisites. However, this speech convinced far from everyone, since foreign partners, as they say, partners are used to trusting not real words, but real numbers. And the numbers persist in talking about the instability of the Russian financial ground. Still would! Our Russian soil is saturated with oil ...
A possible decrease in oil prices may lead to a depreciation of the ruble, and this will no longer allow the Government to fulfill its social obligations at the same level.
However, we will rely on the fact that our governing bodies will not be completely drawn into the election race (if such a race can be discussed nowadays), but will look for solutions to economic problems as well.