Work your wings!
Over the past year, the leaders of the Urals defense industrial complex have been able to significantly increase production volumes. But if the prospects for an increase in supply volumes for manufacturers of aircraft components are obvious, then manufacturers of ground equipment in the very near future can expect a decrease in the volume of military products.
The defense industry of the Russian Federation actively began to emerge from the financial crisis: an analysis of the top 20 of the largest Russian companies in the defense industry in terms of income in 2010, which the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (TSAST) made, shows a positive trend. Of the Ural companies, four companies are included in the list: Ufa Engine-Building Software (UMPO), which is part of the United Engine Corporation, ranks third; NPK "Uralvagonzavod" (UVZ) - the sixth, the group "Motovilikha plants" - 14-e, Kurganmashzavod - 15-e. The Ural Optical Machinery Plant (UOMZ) is located very close to the list: the military products of this plant play a key role. According to the results of 2009, the plant was at the end of the twenty ranking, however, the profits of 2010 were still not enough to stay in the top twenty (companies that had not previously disclosed information about themselves got into the ranking).
It may seem that positive dynamics inspire some optimism. The rise in production volumes, in contrast to the crisis year 2009, is shown by companies of all directions: both suppliers of complexes for naval armament and aviation, and manufacturers of light and heavy armored vehicles. The growth of export profits has also become obvious (this most likely means that the internal state defense order has fallen). But as shown by the analysis of the data already completed, concluded and planned contracts indicates that for exporters of equipment for ground forces, 2010-2011 years have every chance to be the last rise before a protracted decline. But for companies that work for the Air Force, the prospects are not so depressing. They are only gaining momentum.
The positions of the Ural manufacturers of components and complexes for marine and aviation equipment are fairly stable. Although at UMPO and UOMZ the profit from the sale of products increased, at the same time, the net profit of the first one increased almost fourfold, the second one more than doubled.
The main profit of UMPO was obtained from the export of arms. Three quarters of the contracts were concluded for the production of 108 engines for AL-31 of various modifications. And also signed contracts for maintenance of equipment with the Air Force of Vietnam, India, South Korea, Algeria and China. At the same time, contracts were concluded both directly and through Rosoboronexport and Russian aircraft manufacturers. For example, 30 fighters of the Su-27 / 30 family, equipped with X-NUMX AL-60F engines, with an approximate cost of each order of 31 million, were exported from Russia for Indian aviation only. Deliveries to the Russian market also increased: profit from the domestic state defense order grew in 3 by 2010 million rubles.
Production volumes also increased and UOMZ. Mainly due to the growth in sales of special products (by 10% to 3 billion rubles). This growth is primarily associated with an increase in the volume of aviation products (64%): aiming systems and optical location stations were exported either through the Sukhoi AHK or through Irkut Research and Production Company. In the Russian market, an important event for the manufacturer was the transfer of four Ka-52 helicopters with Ural optics to the Rossi Air Force.
Undoubtedly, in the next two years, the financial indicators of UMPO and UOMZ will stabilize. Namely, the UOMZ application portfolio for four years at the beginning of 2011 of the year was approximately 16 billion rubles. This year, the planned delivery of X-NUMX Su-16MKI fighters to Algeria (30 billion dollars). Prior to 1, the fulfillment of the contract for the supply of X-NUMX fighter Su-2012MX12 (30 billion dollars) to Vietnam is planned. It should also be taken into account that Rosoboronexport is involved in negotiations on the supply of a batch of Ka-2 and Mi-1,3 helicopters with Brazil. This information was provided by the general director of Rosoboronexport Anatoly Isaikin. The only negative factor for both of these companies at the beginning of 52 was the introduction of an embargo on military-technical cooperation with Libya: for this country it was planned to manufacture 28-2011 Su-12 fighters. The Ural plant was supposed to supply each fighter with an aiming complex (the cost of each 15 million dollars), UMPO - with the 35 engine AL-1.
The loss of markets in Libya for these companies in the Urals will not be a critical phenomenon: in 2011, the market for large domestic orders is activated. Based on the estimates of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, in view of the conclusion of a contract between the Russian government and the Sukhoi company, the share of the state defense order at UMPO will increase to 40%, including products for the new Su-35 fighter. In the Russian Air Force before 2015, 48 of such aircraft must be supplied. This means that UMPO will manufacture for them 96 “117C products” - advanced AL-31F.
It should be noted that by the year 2015 UMPO plans to increase the production of a larger share of components for the TV-3-117 helicopter engines, as well as the latest version of VK-2500, which are installed on the Mi24 / 28 and Ka-50 / 52. According to the project participants, up to 2016, the need for VK-2500 will be at the level of 2,5 thousand pieces. The cost of each 210 thousand euros.
Sergey Maksin, General Director of the UOMZ Production Association, in 2011, counts on an increase in production volumes in 2,5 times in the aviation sector. This increase is associated primarily with the launch of the serial production of the latest Ka-52 (Progress) and Mi-28H (Rostvertol) combat helicopters for the Russian army. In addition, UOMZ conducted successful testing of sighting and survey systems for naval ships. Now the company has a complete line of optical systems for various applications. Due to this, within the framework of the state defense order, the signing of medium-term contracts for the supply of optical-electronic systems for commissioned warships and auxiliary ships, anti-sabotage boats with commissioning up to 2013 of the year.
The growth of the positive dynamics of the profitability of the Ural UIC enterprises could inspire some optimism. But the analysis shows that this phenomenon is temporary.
And how is the situation on the ground? Uralvagonzavod Research and Production Corporation came out of the 2009 loss of the year, but mainly due to the multiple increase in sales of railcars under Russian Railways and private customers in 2010. Military revenues from sales of products fell slightly: from 25,3 to 22 billion rubles. During 2010, the 20 of the last T-90С tanks and 160 assembly sets at the plant in Avadi left India from the factory. The contract was valued at 1,237 billion dollars for the 223 vehicle kits and the 124 tank. The Russian Army in 2010 also upgraded the 200 T-72B tanks to the parameters of the T-72BA tank and acquired the 63 new T-90А tanks.
In the future, apparently, UVZ will leave the focus on civilian products of the domestic market unchanged, since the company has no specific orders in the field of large military supplies for the 2011 year. In fact, there are only three orders left. The first is the modernization and repair of one thousand T-72 tanks to the indicators of the T-72М1М tank with a total value of 500 million dollars. This contract in 2007 was concluded with Syria and is already coming to an end. The second contract has in mind the contract with India for 2011-2012 years, but only within the framework of providing components for the production of T-90 tanks, mainly engines c "ChTZ-Uraltrak" in the amount of 77 million dollars. The enterprise is a part of NPK "UVZ". On the third contract the other day reported Interfax. According to this publication, by the end of 2011, ten tank support fighting vehicles (BMPTs) will be delivered to Kazakhstan. This is the latest development of UVZ. The Russian Ministry of Defense does not intend to purchase it yet. Apparently, the implementation of the project will partially be able to compensate for the end of large export tank contracts.
It is known that in relation to domestic deliveries by the end of 2011, the leadership of the Russian Federation intends to spend 12 billion rubles on rearmament. Moreover, these funds will not be used to purchase the T-90С tank, but to improve and overhaul the outdated T-72. The military believe that the outdated T-72 to upgrade to the level of T-90 will be three times cheaper than buying a new one. The Defense Ministry, in turn, reported that the army expects that the Uralvagonzavod in two years will provide a fundamentally new tank called the Armata.
The largest producer of multiple rocket launchers and artillery systems in Russia, the Motovilikhinskie Zavody group of enterprises in Perm, intend to develop and manufacture armaments under government orders and export contracts, they consider this to be one of its key activities. Therefore, based on the results of 2011 of the year, Motovilikha planned to increase the consolidated revenue more than doubled compared to 2010 year. And in the future, by the year of 2015, the company intends to increase the internal state defense order and reach the level of the USSR times, increasing the profitability of its weapons production to 60%. In the next four years, this is precisely why they intend to carry out a complete reconstruction of the production here. Start the development and production of artillery systems caliber 100 mm and 152 mm (at the moment, production of 120 and 122 mm). In 2010, the company also developed a lightweight version of the Smerch MLRS. The weight of the system has been reduced from 43,7 (mass of the basic version) to 25 tons.
For 2011, the Russian Ministry of Defense did indeed double the volumes of the state defense order for Motovilikha. According to unofficial data, the cost of planned special products for delivery is estimated at 2 billion rubles. Konstantin Makienko, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, believes that the growth in the volume of the GOZ is associated primarily with the modernization and supply of the MLRS: “This is primarily about Tornadoes, as well as the latest MLRS Tornado-G and Tornado-S "Which the Ministry of Defense intends to acquire in the current year."
The rise of the state defense order is, of course, a positive one. However, will the profit on it override export earnings? Until that time, the export share was 40%. Based on the reporting data for the past years, it is he who owns the main profit of Motovilikha. In 2009-2010, the plant exported Smerch multiple rocket launchers to Turkmenistan and India. At the same time, a contract was signed for the export of six MLRS to Turkmenistan. But over the course of 2011, data on new exports has not been available.
According to experts, things are worst at Kurganmashzavod (KMZ). In 2010, the rise in profits from 3,2 to 5,6 billions of rubles in the military sphere was due to large export contracts (the plant supplied the BMP-3 to Turkmenistan, Indonesia, Kuwait and Libya) and over the last 12 years a large state defense order. There was a significant increase in the size of the state defense order (by 56%) due to export deliveries on account of the national debt of the former USSR and the state credit of the Russian Federation, and a large order for the supply of BMP-3 to the Russian army. There was an increase in the supply of military products to the domestic market by 44%. Together with the additional volumes of applications for the Ministry of Defense of Russia and under contracts with foreign countries, it was possible to fully ensure the load of the enterprise in 2010 year, and also partially in 2011 year. But already in the future, KMZ has all chances to lose all markets and remain without profit. The bottom line is that the company in 2010 year and half failed to fulfill its contracts for the supply of ordered military equipment. In the department of the army engineering department of the machine-building industrial group of the Tractor Plants concern (which includes KMZ), the following explanation was given: the order portfolio for 2010 for BMP-3 was 314 units (75% capacity), this is truly unprecedented demand from the beginning manufacturing in 1997 year. But the suppliers of components let down: “Barnaultransmash” could not increase the supply of engines in any way - instead of 314 units of products, he supplied only 200. "Motovilikha" only at the beginning of 2011, mastered the release of 100-mm guns. As a result, the implementation of the GOZ has also shifted by half a year. This was followed by a delay in the fulfillment of the contract for the supply in 2011 of the 10 of BMD-4M and 10 vehicles of the shell-based unified BMK-4М for the airborne forces. According to the report of the Commander of the Airborne Forces, Lieutenant-General Vladimir Shamanov, the Kurgan Machine-Building Plant did not guarantee that it could produce them. As a result, the deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Igor Barinov, announced in mid-summer that Kurganmashzavod would no longer buy airborne combat vehicles and infantry. Of the new applications, KMZ has only the modernization of the 135 BMP-3, which are in service with the United Arab Emirates from the 1991 year (the cost of the contract is 74 million dollars). Deadlines are not set, but one thing is known that the modernization process will take place in several stages. The KMZ says that following the results of 2010, several large export contracts have been drafted, the implementation of which is planned from 2011 to 2013. In the case of the signing of these contracts, a good prospect of a stable workload of the enterprise is possible. However, this is not yet clear.
About possible prospects. Rosoboronexport experts argue that conflicts in the Middle East did not prevent the export of Russian military products. According to him, in the first half of the year, the share of weapons for the ground forces amounted to 31% of total exports (the share of aviation products - 38%, air defense - 18%). Although earlier the share of arms supplies for the ground forces did not exceed 20% per year. So all the Middle Eastern revolutions contributed to the growth of supply.
And yet, according to the results of the contracts already concluded, one should rely on standing orders only manufacturers of components for the navy and aviation. Why? The answer lies on the surface. One of the main proofs of this is that they are ready to provide the market with the latest models of military equipment. An example of this is the 117С UMPO engine. But the tank "Armata with the latest tactical and technical characteristics of the UVZ military promises almost 10 years.
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