Libya: NATO is considering curtailing a military operation. On the development of the "Afghan scenario"
There is information that the North Atlantic Alliance wants to curtail its operation in Libya. For example, General Carter Ham, head of the United States Armed Forces Joint Command on the Black Continent, on Saturday made a statement that the Alliance campaign in Libya is almost over, the main goals have been achieved and NATO is likely to start a gradual winding down of a military operation.
The forces of the Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) should firmly hold the main cities of Libya by the time the NATO troops leave, and now they are already very close to this goal, Carter Ham said. Although the troops of the North Atlantic Alliance will not leave completely for some time and will provide support to the new Libyan government, the American general added. In particular, the US will leave Drones for the protection of the borders and the safety of the Libyan arsenals, in order to prevent the mass export of weapons to the states neighboring Libya.
In addition, according to the general, the United States does not play a major role in ensuring the security of the Libyan state. Ham believes that Arab countries are better able to cope with this task, since they know better what kind of help the NTC needs.
The American general said that the decision to withdraw NATO forces could be made, despite the continued resistance of several cities and the fact that Gaddafi is still at large. According to Ham, “this is the business of the Libyans, and not someone else.” He recalled that the mission’s purpose was not to arrest Muammar Gaddafi, but to ensure the safety of the Libyan population. Interestingly, his words are radically different from the position of Paris and London. During his joint visit with the French President in Tripoli, the head of the British government, David Cameron, promised the new Libyan authorities to find the leader of the Jamahiriya and bring him to court. In addition, on September 21, the NATO Council decided to extend the Libyan mission by another 3 month, i.e., actually until the end of 2011.
It is clear that the West and NATO will not leave Libya, in one form or another, the presence will continue. Such conflicting statements are related to several factors. First of all, finance - the financiers say that it is enough to fight, if the profits from the war do not cover the losses, the meaning of military operations is lost. Politicians depend on the corporations in whose interests this war is being waged, it is TNK and TNB that support politicians in elections.
Secondly, the goal as a whole is achieved. The war involving two parties - the loyal forces of Gaddafi and the rebels, supported by NATO forces and a number of Arab countries, gradually turns into a civil war (experts talk about the "Afghan scenario") between different forces and groups. The enemies of Gaddafi were united only by a common enemy; now the only factor that has somehow helped consolidate the opposition forces and forced the rebels to coordinate with the NATO bloc has disappeared. The Libyan territory has not yet arrived at the final “neo-feudal fragmentation” stage, but in fact it is close to it. The result is an Afghan (or Iraqi) scenario: this is an extremely weak government that tries not to stick its nose out of the so-called. "Green zone" of the capital, it is legally recognized by the international community. On the territory of the state (or rather, of the territory) there is a constant movement, a struggle of political (ideological), tribal groups for resources, that is, control over oil fields, oil pipelines, means of communication, and sources of income.
The West will now maneuver between the main forces, unconditionally supporting only the PNS.
Major forces in Libya
- The most powerful force (excluding NATO) in Libya is Islamistsboth local and strangers. Their plans are obvious - this is an Islamic caliphate, and Libya should become one of its provinces. Therefore, they need to break the resistance of the loyal forces of Gaddafi and "force" the PNS to the gradual Islamization of the country.
- Loyal Gaddafi forces. They are also already heterogeneous, so, in Sirte, the tribe of Gadhafat stands to death. His main goal is to survive (these are the relatives of Gaddafi, and in the event of defeat they are waiting for genocide) and, if possible, to keep Sirt. With a favorable scenario, in the future - to return back to El-Jufra, Waddan and Hun. This will give this tribe control over the western part of the oil field Sirte and the important transport crossroads of Waddan, from which the road goes to the southwest and southeast of the state.
Warfalla tribe protects Bani Walid. Their main task is to keep the city itself and control over the southern and southwestern areas of Tripoli. In this scenario, the warfalla tribe will be able to hope for an agreement, under which it will receive profits from part of the Ghadames oil basin and control the transport artery to the south.
The position of Gaddafi and his sons is no longer catastrophic (the catastrophe has already occurred), but there are no special prospects in the near future. Perhaps, later, when people are full of grief, the Jamahiriya project, which is prettier than Saudi or Iranian, will be revived. There is a possibility that in a wider area - in most parts of Africa.
National Transitional Council of Libya and the Jabrili brothers (Chairman of the PS - Mustafa Muhammad Abd-al-Jalil, Prime Minister - Mahmoud Jabril). In the military aspect, the PNS is very weak, inferior to both Islamists and supporters of Gaddafi, but strong support from the West and NATO. In the hands of the Libyan PNS - contacts with the West, recognition of the world community and financial flows.
- Formations, detachments of the tribes and cities of Cyrenaica. A very heterogeneous group, united in the fight against the Gaddafi regime. In the future, the inevitable collapse and serious strife.
- Tuareg Ghadames, Fezzana. Independent strength, but due to the fact that Gaddafi was previously supported, potential allies of the Warfalla tribe. Their main task is to maintain control over the western part of the Ghadames oil field and the Fezzan region. Their main enemy is the Islamists.
- Misurata. The enemy of the warfalla and Gadhaf tribes, the Benghazian competitors.
- Berbers of Libya. By themselves, during the war, they distanced themselves from the rebels.
- Qatar and Saudi Arabia. They have already received their share of the "Libyan pie": Saud - in the oil industry, Qatar - in the gas industry. Along the way, Qatar eliminated a competitor with the idea of Libyan liquefied natural gas.
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