Military Review

Russian gas and European interests

Russian gas and European interests

Europeans have less and less time to start creating the infrastructure necessary for receiving and transit of Russian gas flowing through Turkey. As Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Board of Gazprom, reminded at the Valdai Club meeting, the Russian side will not renew the existing gas transit contract through Ukraine after 2019. Moreover, Moscow will not coordinate the new infrastructure of Russian gas supplies to Europe with the EU leadership. Consequently, European countries should determine their priorities in the energy sector.

And the choice here is not very large. According to a study published recently by experts from the British company BP, in the next 20 years, Europe’s dependence on gas imports will increase from the current 50% to 71%. And this will happen in a situation of a decline in production at European fields and a reduction in supplies from Algeria and from other external sources. As for the deliveries of liquefied gas to Europe, at best they can only compensate for the decline in gas production on the continent, which could be on the order of 2020% by 30. At the same time, the share of Russian gas in European imports will at least remain at the current level (32-33%), BP experts predict.

An important factor is the growing pessimism of investors regarding the construction and filling of the two competitors of the Russian Turkish Stream project - the Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic (TAP) gas pipelines. Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz has already made it clear that Ankara may sell its stake in TANAP.

Experts of the Brookings Institute in Washington come to similar conclusions. The report prepared by them states that “Russian natural gas will be very competitive in Europe,” at least until 2030. “In general, the analysis shows that there is no transformation of the structure of the fuel balance of Europe. We believe that the share of Russian gas in the European fuel balance will be significant, ”said Tim Boersma, analyst at the Brookings Institute. As the Austrian newspaper Die Presse learned, the Brookings Institute calculated several scenarios for the development of European gas imports from Russia up to the 2040 year. And none of them indicates a possible reduction in the share of Russian gas in the supply of Europe.

It should also be emphasized that all these calculations do not take into account the exacerbation of the situation in the Middle East, which is already making significant adjustments to the dynamics of the oil and gas markets and forcing consumers to calculate the possibility of reducing the supply from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Qatar. “It may well be that there is a discrepancy between what is expected from the market and how the political realities are shaping up. They, as a rule, do not coincide, ”experts of the Brookings Institute admit.

“We will start building the Turkish Stream as soon as we get all the approvals. We do not need to discuss it with our European colleagues, ”Alexey Miller recalled. According to him, Russia intends, in cooperation with Turkey, to bring Russian gas to the hub on the Turkish-Greek border. The further supply route will depend on the readiness and ability of the Europeans themselves to create their own capacities and “connect” them to this hub. “We will build and wait,” stressed the head of Gazprom. “Now all efforts are aimed at realizing the construction of the gas transportation infrastructure to Turkey, on the border of Turkey and Greece and delivering to consumers of Southeast and Central Europe through this route,” said Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak. According to him, the cost of the Turkish Stream is comparable to the cost of the South Stream, but European countries will have to build ground connections to the future gas pipeline at their own expense.

So far, Greece has been most active in connecting to the new gas pipeline infrastructure. Panaiotis Lafazanis, the Greek Minister for Production Reconstruction, Environment and Energy, who visited Moscow during negotiations with Alexey Miller, noted that the new gas pipeline to Turkey would “increase the reliability” of Europe’s gas supply, since it meets the requirements of “diversification of export routes”.

Slovakia is also active in this issue. The operator of the Slovak gas transmission system, Eustream, has already announced its intention to build a gas pipeline from its country to the Bulgarian-Turkish border, with a view to making it a key element of the new system of Russian gas supplies to Europe in the future. The preliminary cost of the Slovak project - 750 million euros. “The pipeline would have started in the Slovak village Velké Kapushany near the border with Ukraine, and ended at the Bulgarian-Turkish border,” indicates the Bratislava Internet edition vEnergetike, citing sources at Eustream. It is assumed that half of the route will pass through the existing pipelines, and the remainder will be completed in Romania. The construction is designed for three years, and the capacity of the future gas pipeline can be brought to 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Bratislava understands that the supply of Russian gas through Turkey and Greece will be able to connect new countries to the transit routes that were not participants in the former South Stream, in particular, the same Slovakia. And this means not only transit payments, but also an increase in the sustainability of the entire system, tied to the interests of the maximum number of players. Russia's refusal to build the South Stream has changed a lot “on the energy map of the future,” the Slovak newspaper SME rightly notes.

Unlike the Greeks and Slovaks, others are still cautious. In particular, the Serbian government still hopes to convince the European Commission to "put pressure" on Russia in order to force it to reanimate the South Stream. The office of Alexander Vuchic seems to have decided not to take any independent action in the area of ​​ensuring energy security without coordination with Brussels. And this, given the refusal of Gazprom to negotiate the Turkish Stream with the EU leadership, a direct path to leaving Serbia on the energy side. Serbia and other Balkan states have “not very big alternatives” to gas supplies from Russia, the Russian ambassador to Belgrade Alexander Chepurin is convinced.

Meanwhile, the fate of the South Stream, mourned today by the Serbs and Bulgarians, should have taught them to better understand the essence of the energy policy of the European Union, and at the same time Kiev’s unseemly role. The South Stream project has fallen victim to the global geopolitical game, which the USA and its allies are playing and the main element of which they have made Ukraine. The main reason that Russia made the decision to build transit gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine is the refusal of the Ukrainian side to modernize its own gas transmission system. Moscow and Kiev signed the corresponding agreement back in 2004, but immediately after this, a color revolution took place in Ukraine, not without US participation, and the implementation of the agreement was thwarted. Washington managed to turn Ukraine into a means of pressure on both Europeans and Russia. However, in Europe, with the exception of Gazprom, there is simply no wish to build pipelines for Russian gas. Therefore, Europeans have a very simple choice: either cooperation with Russia, or an energy impasse.

Unsustainable and calculations for the supply of shale gas from the United States. The cost of shale gas is several times higher than that of traditional gas. If for traditional gas it is about 20 dollars per thousand cubic meters, then for shale gas it is about 150 dollars. Still remains expensive and electricity derived from alternative sources.

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  1. 0,5
    0,5 April 17 2015 14: 37
    Well here: with all the wealth of choice, there is no other alternative !!!
    However, if there are a lot of peas ... wassat
    1. Vend
      Vend April 17 2015 14: 46
      the fate of the South Stream, which is mourned today by the Serbs and Bulgarians, should have taught them to better understand the essence of the energy policy of the European Union, and at the same time the unseemly role of Kiev.

      They are thought and understood in the USA laughing
      1. Kos_kalinki9
        Kos_kalinki9 April 17 2015 16: 21
        The USA does not think for them, the USA thinks only of itself.
      2. taram taramych
        taram taramych April 17 2015 20: 13
        Old Clio, as you know, prefers to spin in a spiral. Obviously, the Balkans will once again have to survive the Ottoman Horror. Do not forget to drop thermal underwear on Shipka.
    2. lelikas
      lelikas April 17 2015 14: 47
      Finally, they stopped messing with all sorts of ghouls and begin to do something normal.
    3. afrikanez
      afrikanez April 17 2015 14: 59
      There is one alternative, it’s just with Russia fellow
      1. Kent0001
        Kent0001 April 17 2015 15: 32
        Friendship with Russia has always been a very good investment. !!!!!!
  2. Byshido_dis
    Byshido_dis April 17 2015 14: 37
    They don’t have time, so they will buy firewood from us ...
    1. Dryuya2
      Dryuya2 April 17 2015 14: 44
      litter that is not a topic
      The Russian Defense Ministry refused to recover 2,2 billion rubles from former official Evgenia Vasilyeva, accused of embezzlement of 3 billion rubles. This was reported in the Presnensky court of Moscow.
      17.04.2015, 14: 16
      “The Ministry of Defense,“ Oboronservis ”and“ Oboronstroy ”in the course of the court rejected claims for damages in the amount of 2,2 billion rubles from Vasilyeva and other persons involved in the case and stated that they were no longer victims in this case,” RIA reports News source words in court.
      It is reported that the decision is due to the fact that the cost of shares of the 31st Institute, owned by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation since 2013, was included in the amount of damage.
      how someone in komenets wrote stole a billion - "shooting"
      and if the "gallows" is less
      and here I think everything goes to the amnesty or will be awarded ???
      1. wolf7
        wolf7 April 17 2015 18: 58
        No, it’s already a refutation, someone started a fake.
    2. wolf7
      wolf7 April 17 2015 18: 57
      Don't sell shit, even if they destroy the ecology at home, we have already had some "partners" of the forests and still harass them, but who will plant and restore, Putin again?
    3. Vasyan1971
      Vasyan1971 April 17 2015 19: 14
      With self-cut and self-delivery. And under strict control, of course.
  3. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter April 17 2015 14: 38
    Somehow sharply Russia began to talk with Western "partners". Straight with metal in my voice. So soon they will ask to buy gas for rubles, and nothing else. And they are printed in Moscow. Sadness.
    1. alexeypill
      alexeypill April 17 2015 14: 44
      And most likely it will be.
      1. Kos_kalinki9
        Kos_kalinki9 April 17 2015 16: 23
        For rubles, and only for rubles. And with his statement, Miller put the geyrope in an interesting position. Well, yes, in principle, she’s not used to it, especially recently
        1. Boa kaa
          Boa kaa April 17 2015 20: 07
          Quote: Kos_kalinki9
          And with his statement, Miller put the geyrope in an interesting position.

          Europe, it is also different! The Nord Stream provides uninterrupted supply to Garmania and further down the pipe ...
          But Svidomo and their Panism from the nipple will be excommunicated from the 2019 of the year - Oh how bitterly the pans will cry and their lack of ... we.
          And the rest will have to decide: either freeze, or quickly pull the branch of the pipeline to the hub in Turkey.
          But this is their choice! And if they freeze in winter, then let them take advantage of the free advice of the Chef!
    2. Wheel
      Wheel April 17 2015 23: 09
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      So soon they will ask to buy gas for rubles, and nothing else. And they are printed in Moscow. Sadness.

      Printing is being printed, but exclusively under dollar security.
  4. Kolka82
    Kolka82 April 17 2015 14: 39
    “We’ll build it and wait,” the head of Gazprom said. So somehow ... What, geyropa, uncomfortable?
    1. lelikas
      lelikas April 17 2015 14: 50
      Quote: Kolka82
      What, geyropa, uncomfortable?

      But how, without gas, you can only drink mineral water.
  5. fzr1000
    fzr1000 April 17 2015 14: 42
    Suddenly, American shale gas in Europe turned out to be more expensive than Russian.
  6. Alexey Boukin
    Alexey Boukin April 17 2015 14: 43
    Quote: Byshido_dis
    They don’t have time, so they will buy firewood from us ...

    Only subject to self-cutting and pick-up. To chop wood, it’s not to ride on the Maidan.
    1. Kos_kalinki9
      Kos_kalinki9 April 17 2015 16: 25
      No firewood, even sawing oaks in the outskirts, and collecting dung.
  7. DMoroz
    DMoroz April 17 2015 14: 49
    Analysts modestly calculated something - Europe’s dependence on our gas only until 2030-40. Given the finiteness of this natural resource and our reserves, it will probably only go up in price in Europe by that time. shale gas is not an alternative (unless new breakthrough technologies are invented)
  8. science fiction writer
    science fiction writer April 17 2015 14: 53
    Russia's refusal to build the South Stream has changed a lot "on the energy map

    What did they want? that we, as in the times of EBN, will crawl around bent around them.
    The Bulgarians think they saw where they got into a mess. laughing
  9. vanavatny
    vanavatny April 17 2015 14: 57
    I am glad that an alternative buyer was found, and even what: a lot of cheap Russian gas for China, to put it mildly, will kick in the competitiveness of an aging gayrope brothel negative
  10. A-Sim
    A-Sim April 17 2015 15: 08
    Who cares who will re-export Turkey to?
  11. russmensch
    russmensch April 17 2015 15: 14
    So the moment comes when the geyropa stays with her bare ass, but with her geopolitical interests. All honestly. And how many energy packages they can still invent - not to count. Today, only the third is in effect. And then all this paper in good faith to use for heating. Must be long enough. After all, there will no longer be any gas dependence on Russia.
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa April 17 2015 20: 53
      Quote: russmensch
      And then all this paper in good faith to use for heating.
      Well, you are not advising: paper - for its intended purpose - to the toilet! After gas production! laughing
      Quote: russmensch
      It should be enough for a long time.
      So these evil spirits will plague all the forests! Think about the ecology! bully
  12. saag
    saag April 17 2015 15: 43
    "We will build and we will wait," the head of Gazprom emphasized. "
    Termination of the current contract with the EU? But what if gas comes to Turkey from Iran, there is a fundamental agreement with Erdogan
    1. aleks 62
      aleks 62 April 17 2015 16: 18
      ... And what if gas comes to Turkey from Iran, ..

      ..... And in Turkey, and so is supplied about 10 billion cubic meters from Iran .... hi
      1. saag
        saag April 17 2015 16: 28
        Quote: aleks 62
        .And about 10 billion cubic meters from Iran are supplied to Turkey already.

        But the EU needs much more, and Iran needs money, so Turkey’s Iranian gas there may well be sent in transit
      2. kuz363
        kuz363 April 17 2015 19: 21
        But it is expected to expand to 30 mld. cubes along with gas from Baku.
    2. kuz363
      kuz363 April 17 2015 19: 20
      Russian supplies account for 30% of the EU’s total demand. And through Ukraine about 10%, the remaining 20% ​​through the Nord Stream and Belarus. 10% is not a critical figure for the EU. Every year they reduce gas consumption, switch to other types of fuel, lay the EU gas pipelines from north to south, which they are doing now. It is possible to switch to other suppliers. So Gazprom’s hopes are illusory. They will build one pipe for Turkey, the second - maybe for Greece, Bulgaria and others. And this is half the performance of 63 billion. cubes. Accordingly, there will be no gas pipeline economy. But there is no contract with the EU. There are contracts with each of the 18 EU countries, where the points of gas supply by the supplier are indicated, i.e. Gazprom. Recent contracts end in the 30s. For example, for Austria it seems in 2035. And without the consent of the buyer, Gazprom cannot transfer the point of delivery, as in Greece, for example. This will be considered a failure of the contract. Therefore, they are so confident and hold on to blackmail Miller.
      1. taram taramych
        taram taramych April 17 2015 20: 19
        The EU’s third energy package, a double-edged wand, cuts off all contracts.
  13. Sotnik77s
    Sotnik77s April 17 2015 16: 06
    And this EU is not going to agree, because it’s not just that Ukrainians poison and arm Ukrainians, they hope that by the year 16 they will take what they need together with Ukrainians, they’ve planned it from me, I think, they’re not just like that again, like the Second World War they are gathering everyone under their own flags, all of Europe, as Hitler did then, with the secret support of the USA and Great Britain, and now the new Fuhrer, Merkel, doesn’t get smart at all, now, in place of Germany, there will be an ocean or, at best, a province .... ...
  14. northerner lech
    northerner lech April 17 2015 16: 21
    Quote: saag
    "We will build and we will wait," the head of Gazprom emphasized. "
    Termination of the current contract with the EU? But what if gas comes to Turkey from Iran, there is a fundamental agreement with Erdogan

    It may very well be. It’s not in vain that dances are unfolding around Iran, with tambourines. Only some would like to take control of the Persians, frightening them with all sorts of daggers, while others offer to make friends and agree. It’s not in vain that the pipe was turned to the Turks, maybe the Persians offer joint gas trade. Many people write that Iran also needs time to increase production, build infrastructure, about 4-5 years. Something rests in 2019.
  15. loaln
    loaln April 17 2015 16: 59
    Pouring from empty to empty ... Under exclamations: "We need currency, we need currency!"
    I agree. They need a currency.
  16. givigor71
    givigor71 April 17 2015 17: 54
    While Europe was looking for an alternative to Russian gas, Russian gas found an alternative to Europe.
  17. Yuri Y.
    Yuri Y. April 17 2015 18: 51
    Well, as they say, let them walk around the market, maybe they will really find something.
  18. Million
    Million April 17 2015 18: 54
    Gas is a good lever of pressure on the West, but our politicians do not seek to use it
  19. kuz363
    kuz363 April 17 2015 19: 06
    And what are the poor Greeks going to pay? To take loans for this from Russia? This has already been done with Ukraine.
    1. taram taramych
      taram taramych April 17 2015 20: 26
      Now these same
      Quote: kuz363
      poor Greeks
      , together with the Turks, will dictate the price policy for LNG, and believe me, in this case, Brussels will be remembered by everything, both the humiliation of Greece and the “dynamo” of Turkey, with the entry into the EU.
  20. Vasyan1971
    Vasyan1971 April 17 2015 19: 19
    Basta karapuziki! Dances are over! (C)
    ROMAN VYSOTSKY April 17 2015 19: 37
    Absolutely cool recollection, illustrating the present and future of the European sixes of America.

    Writer Inna Metelskaya-Sheremeteva:

    “In the 1982 year, I had to work in Odessa at the Young Guard youth camp. There was only one kiosk in the pioneer camp and they did not sell seeds there. Deficit. We went beyond the territory and treated our pioneers with seeds and gobies. And, I confess, I once got into a fight with one American girl, also a counselor, in exchange, who was entertained by throwing seeds into the dust and laughing, watching the Ukrainian kid pick up and eat these dirty seeds sucked to her. For a fight, I flew out of the camp and received a reprimand along the Komsomol line. For the rest of my life I remembered that the name was that foul - Vicki.
    And today she was surprised to read in Victoria Nuland’s biography that in 1982 she worked as an exchange counselor in the Young Guard and kept the most negative impressions about the Soviet Union ...
    Now I think that if I fought with her, then I did not regret it and now I do not regret it. Poured a little! ”

    Like this. The origins of hatred were laid in childhood.
    And these "specialists" with a distorted and traumatized psyche are establishing a new "happy" way of life in Russian Ukraine.

    America must be destroyed!
  22. DPN
    DPN April 17 2015 21: 06
    Quote: Kos_kalinki9
    The USA does not think for them, the USA thinks only of itself.

    It would not be bad if our government also thought about its PEOPLE and the state, you see, and there would be no sanctions.
  23. Boa kaa
    Boa kaa April 17 2015 21: 07
    I don’t remember where I read that Russia is reassembling to the East, and to the West it needs to turn back and ... give them gas!
    It seems better and you will not say!
  24. atamankko
    atamankko April 18 2015 00: 08
    We said our word, let
    Europe thinks what to do.