The Falkland Scenario may repeat on the Kuril Islands: expert opinions

The unstable situation in the entire post-Soviet space can be brought to a critical point at any time. This was stated by the deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Konstantin Makienko 29 September in Moscow during a round table on the topic "What war is the Russian army ready for?", Reports the news agency REX.

“As for probable threats, this topic has been discussed. I repeat: of course, today there is such a picture that the maximum military threats for Russia are in Central Asia: this is the internal instability of despotic states, and the import of instability from Afghanistan. This probability is associated with the coming to power of the Taliban regime, but Pakistan, who has been in crisis for 20 years, and which regime can jump out there, also needs to be watched, this is a question. The Pakistani army is a very good army, which is even higher than the Indian army in quality. But I would also say that the entire post-Soviet zone is a zone of potential risks and conflicts. The entire configuration of the Belovezhskaya system is illegal, and there is a risk of its transformation. This whole system has been in crisis since 1992. I think that this instability can be brought to a critical point at any moment, ”the expert fears.

The specialist also drew attention to the tense situation in the Far East: “Another important region is the Far East, and this is due to foreign policy. I would draw attention to the probability of the Falkland scenario for the Kuriles. Although they say that Japan will not decide on this step, there were also few people in Britain who thought about the implementation of the Falkland scenario. Beat the Kurils will be difficult. I would not appreciate the possibility of problems with China, but there are risks: the collapsing infrastructure of China and at the same time the enormous resources of the Far East. 20 trillions on rearmament is the absolute minimum. In fact, according to some estimates, rearmament requires about 50 trillions. This is the minimum minimum of what is needed, and the maximum maximum of what a country can give. ”

Viktor Litovkin, editor-in-chief of the Independent Military Review weekly, did not agree with Konstantin Makienko about the threat from the Pakistani army: “The participation of Pakistan in the conflicts in Central Asia seems to me a great fantasy. In order for Pakistan to reach Central Asia, it is necessary to go through the whole of Afghanistan. The question is that the teachings of Center-2011 are part of large exercises that took place throughout Russia.

Lukashenko felt that he should contribute to the CSTO, because otherwise the troops would not come to his aid. The participation of the Ukrainian battalion in the exercises is also a significant moment. The participation of all military units is indicative, but note that the exercises were primarily strategic in scope, but the brigades actually worked, that is, the effect of the local conflict and the effectiveness of the reforms over the past three years were worked out. These are serious large-scale maneuvers of troops. It seems to me that the focus on Central Asia and the desire to develop scenarios of action against religious extremist organizations is not entirely justified, because armies cannot fight popular unrest. Indeed, Al-Qaeda network systems exist everywhere, they are deeply conspiratorial, they are being prepared, and they will act gradually, disturbing the population. Which army and which Tanks can be against them? It is important that you will need to spend 90% of finances on the undevelopment of such events. And turning Bishkek into Grozny of the 90s is not serious. Need to fight with extremist organizations. This was the only serious flaw in the teachings. ”

As reported earlier by the REX news agency, the director of the World Trade Analysis Center weapons Igor Korotchenko said that the main external threat to Russia could come from Central Asia. “There is a need for us to develop military contacts in Kazakhstan. In the framework of cooperation, it is necessary to strengthen the Kazakhstan armed assault potential aviation. This is extremely important, because in the event of threats of instability, the country could be given support, ”the expert is sure.

Comments

[Sergh]

So many things at once, like big men and they’re terrifying to catch up at once! Well, play, would be in CounterStrike and everything became clear. And then Pakistan is already in Tajikistan, they do more fucking! Go learn the map, flup.

[Ivan35]

I agree -Pakistan will not climb against Russia in Central Asia - it is far from it with a regular army there - secondly, the regular army (even if we assume a fantastic throw through Afghanistan to Tajikistan) is vulnerable - even a "weakened" ODKB will cope with such an enemy

Secondly, Pakistan does not need a confrontation with Russia now - it will be enough for India too - and the pendos are not looking at them friendly

Much more dangerous is the "molecular" penetration of the ideas of Wahhabism and the unrest with the guerrilla war in Tajikistan - they can spread to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan - Kazakhstan will find itself in a problem situation - it will have a zone of instability at the borders - and the "propagandists" will penetrate into the southern regions from Central Asia

Here it is the threat scenarios for Russia in the SA - and behind the Wahhabists (who pays them) old enemies will stand - Saudi Saxons and Pendos from Afghanistan

[Sergh]

So, Central Asia has been boiling for a long time. The instigators in Kazakhstan began to be caught. In principle, they are everywhere, on sowing. in the Caucasus, we also have not gone extinct. In general, I have the impression that they have a maternity hospital there and they will always be there.
But the essence of the matter is different, sort of like the Kuril Islands, this is the Falklands-2 and that they can not be recaptured, if-what! Completely bare islands (without population), each movement is seen by the Far-Eastern radars, discharged air traffic, which facilitates observation. What Falklands are you talking about? Even at the first landing of the Marines (Japan) ashore, they only have time to drink tea and pee. Aerial target designation with electronic warfare and further surface and submarine fleets, they will drown this island there, or they will burn everything down to grasshoppers.
And mericosa won't get into this game, it's not their land. If only in a word, ammo, hand-bring it. There are many of our submariners (I think), they will cover, and the rest is aviation. Well, all this of course, God forbid.

[Ivan35]

Here, too, I agree with your "God forbid!" - personally, I hope that now the Pendos have other priorities and they will not push the samurai to the Kuril Islands - otherwise it will be hard for us

Somehow it turned out well that while Russia is weak and fragmented - there is no powerful united front against us in the Far East - China must deal with Taiwan - and they have questions with the Japanese - North Korea from South - Vietnam to the south also has China - this muddy time can be won out for water - only this time should not be wasted - but strengthened according to the full program - first of all, create a confederation of 3 republics - and somehow attract Ukraine

[cyberspace]

China's crumbling infrastructure

- the author of what smoked?

[raf]

He probably sniffed acetone!

[Vadivak]

On the Kuril Islands (smoked) is written the same

[Col.]

This is clearly a typo. Should be "developing".

[atheist]

it is clear to everyone that China, India, the United States, Russia, a little Turkey and Iran make politics in Asia (something has quieted down recently)

[merkawa]

The Kuril Islands are not the Falklands and we are not Argentina. Here we love ourselves to stigmatize ourselves in the blood or something.

[AleksUkr]

In light of the latest exercises in the east of our country, it is worth considering. After all, they were closely watched by the United States and Japan. It is difficult to say what thoughts arose in them, looking at our "confident" actions. Yes, we are not Argentina, but we are not the USSR, which everyone feared and therefore respected.

[BOSS]

So we are in this article in the role of Argentina or what we get)))) If the japas are masochists, let them invade. Old Japanese are fully aware of what deja vu :)

[slan]

Argentina attacked (like Japan), and the British (like the Russian Federation) did not seem to believe in such impudence until recently. About the same article.

[BOSS]

Yes, I'm joking, Argentina, of course, then got it in the teeth well, although the British got it.

[fedora]

My friends, today we are weak as never before, and the Far East is not protected at all. The Kuril Islands, definitely, if Japan decides to take this step, will be captured by it in a few days. Then it will be too late to wave your fists, and Japan will have strong support, our leadership does not dare to recapture the islands. What do you think?

[Sanzyro]

And you go here http://topwar.ru/7236-minoborony-reshilo-pustit-akuly-na-metallolom.html There competent "analysts" will explain to you on their fingers how powerful our fleet is, what a smart defense doctrine we have and all your anxiety, as if by hand will remove!

[Sanzyro]

Ironically, I look tight ...

[zczczc]

fedoraeven if Japan is designated by a couple of ships off our islands, in a day there will be US aircraft carriers there "by chance". "They passed by," they will say, "decided to go."

I am sincerely incomprehensible to these strange megalithic civil buildings on about. Russian, for example. And not only. What is the point of them? There, military bases need to be strengthened, not summits to be held ...

[slan]

Investments were sent there at the summit. The standard of living must be raised because. Modern wars do not win so much with guns.

[slan]

Quote: fedor

What do you think?

It would be so, would have been captured long ago.
Japan is too vulnerable. But nobody argues about the need for rearmament.

[Evil Tatar]

Friends, at the beginning of 2011 they told me (reliable sources) that in February 2011, a confrontation between ours and the Japanese already took place in the coastal waters of the Kuril Islands ...
Pounded from large-caliber on our civilian and military sides, ours answered. On the other side, they deployed landing craft for landing on the islands, but the Fokusima events prevented ...
In addition, IMPORTANT officials, by then, had written reports and brought their families to the mainland ...
Think about it ... Is Fokushima a natural disaster or the action of a weapon based on other physical properties?

[Russian 1970]

If there was a confrontation, it would have been known for a long time. And the parts that are in the Kuril Islands, would give a light to the Japs all that they have. The beginning of the 90s, Tajikistan, the border - remember!

[Evil Tatar]

Yes, that was unih, at that moment ...
Cannon fodder? And that’s not enough ...... Damn these ...

[zavesa01]

What are the parts on the smokers? Under the USSR, there were still, and now everything except the border guards is empty. And for the local population, Japan is closer and dearer.

[cabin boy]

Gathered "experts", smoked tea and how come "competent" opinions on the mountain to issue

[LESHA pancake]

Express your competent opinion.

[fedora]

Thanks for answers. As the saying goes "we'll see ..."

[Sorry]

While Pakistan is not interested in this area. But for us this piece of Asia is very, very. When the Americans leave Afghanistan and the power passes to the Taliban, the Taliban will be in Central Asia the next day. What it promises us is a war with them. In the Far East everything is complicated. The Japanese today are not afraid of us. Although our people living on these islands and even on Sakhalin for the most part do not mind living under Japan. In reality, the whole of D. Vostok is already Chinese and our women give birth to children from them, people go to rest to China, they learn the language and somehow they’re no longer striving for the center of Russia. Although it’s because there is no money at all. Here from the Japanese, China will help us within the BRIC, but will set the price. For them, the territory is the most reasonable price.

[подводник]

Well Pakistan was given to you! He has problems above the roof! Where will he go?

And the fact that the Americans do not recognize our sovereignty over these 4 islands is a fact, and they are quite intrusively demanding that we negotiate with them on this topic! And we, as expected, overwhelmed them with humanitarian aid, after the well-known events, and continue to deliver gas at a very ridiculous price in huge volumes! Well, just like in 41 !!!!!!!!!!!

[Motherland]

Neither China nor Japan will simply drag out a war with us, since we, as a defense party, have every right to use nuclear weapons, Japan has already said that, and China is too smart to run into meaningless losses, it’s easier for them to crush a smaller country ...

[kagorta]

China will not fight with us, but only assimilate quietly. Those who just did not conquer, but in the end there were only Chinese. And now they are quietly climbing in all directions and climbing, moreover through the economy and humanitarian projects.
The "optimist" studies English, the "pessimist" studies the Chinese, and the realist the Kalashnikov assault rifle.

[AleksUkr]

The last phrase is normal and fair. But the Chinese are a vengeful people. And this must not be forgotten. Beware and prepare for a serious conflict, the victory of which in the current state of our army is problematic.

[Motherland]

Quote: kagorta

The "optimist" studies English, the "pessimist" studies the Chinese, and the realist the Kalashnikov assault rifle.

Golden words, I chose the last option for myself, well, the first one goes according to the program)

[Siberian]

In order to take the Kuril Islands, it is necessary to carry out an amphibious operation (if anyone has forgotten, these are the islands). For the MDO, landing craft are needed. Looking at the "native" Wikipedia, you can see that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have - 3 amphibious helicopter dock transports and 2 small amphibious assault ships. On this site (http://ship.bsu.by/ship.aspx?guid=100704) I found a link about these ships (or the like). Even if they are all the same, the total number of Marines transported by them will be 1500-2000 people. It will not be enough to capture the Kuril Islands. Again, from 1989 to 2000, I served on Sakhalin. Been to the southern Kuriles. There are not many landing sites.

[zavesa01]

The problem is that the landing (if any) will take place on completely empty islands. On these islands, their underground communications have remained since the 2nd World War. When leaving the islands, the adits were mined and undermined. We do not have underground communications cards. For example, on about. Matua was the residence of the emperor during the surrender of Japan, the island was empty.

[slan]

Quote: kagorta

The "optimist" studies English, the "pessimist" studies the Chinese, and the realist the Kalashnikov assault rifle.

And not realist English? So it’s more logical IMHO, to gather to teach others their language more optimistically, well, to be conquered by the Anglo-Saxons even more, also somehow does not sound optimistic.

[APASUS]

I would pay attention to the likelihood of the Falkland scenario for the Kuril Islands

Return of the Kuril Islands, this is internal information, so to speak, for local use! But after the tsunami, Japan stopped a number of investment projects around, This says that they need money. The capture of the Kuril Islands is a pure adventure ............. ... newspaper bird!

[kosmos84]

Japan-Kuril Islands, Finnnam-Karelia, Estonian-Pechory (Pskov region) _- something doh% I want to

[LESHA pancake]

Brothers don’t fantasize that there are enough problems for Japs with a nuclear station of Fukushima and smokers are so much a toothache.

[ztk1]

I think that if they started military operations against us, they would start them from all sides almost simultaneously (I would have organized my vassals in the place of the Pindos - Japan, Georgia, the EU would have overcome Kaliningrad) and it would have turned out that our great commanders were I would be at a loss in determining the direction of the main attack, as a result of the surrender of a nuclear suitcase to the custody of some democratic country. I hope that this will not happen.

[kosmos84]

it seems to me that it will be so (the moral of that fairy tale is such a shadlu pi% even a lion)

[datur]

ztk1, of course, an interesting idea (those who want to profit from our territories are the sea), but there’s no answer to getting a rocket.

[LeonidLey]

Shooting in the Kuril Islands is not needed. War policy has long changed. Do you know that half of the Kuril population would agree to join Japan? Advocacy of different religions, material assistance to Japan, the stratification (fragmentation) of society are gradually doing their job. The Japanese have long been fishing in our waters. As long as our government is engaged in stuffing of our pockets, we will find ourselves in a complete island, but we are already in it.

[SVD]

Bullshit! At the beginning of 1800, everybody in Russia was lazy, they studied French - the Russians came to Paris, in the forties - the last century they learned German - the Russians captured Berlin, now we learn Aglopendos and Chinese - what lies ahead? Do not piss, break through!

[DEfindER]

I agree that in the event of a seizure of smoked by Japan, our prez will say his favorite phrase - "Well, people's lives are more important to us than political ambitions, and we can do without smoking"
he didn’t even decide on a small war, but he would surrender Russia with giblets!

In general, if you think that Japan’s Kuril Islands are not really needed, you can’t build cities on such islands, they are too small, purely for the sake of resources, but they buy them cheap anyway .. Even Hokaydo Island is very poorly populated, their density is very low, therefore, they will not move to the Kuril Islands is a fact ..

Militarily, Japan is now a very strong country, and it can be lighted up by anyone, if their population is equal to the population of the Russian Federation, then the army is approximately equal in size and armed with the latest weapons .. I think that if they attack us at once from several of the parties, as the NATO pack usually likes to do, it will not be easy to fight back, and they’re not hoping for nuclear weapons, because the launch of any ICBM will lead to the launch of the Amer ICBMs and the destruction of the planet ..

[puffnutiy]

I don’t understand why everyone accuses the Taliban of all horrors? Under the Taliban, drug trafficking across the Tajik-Afghan border has fallen significantly. And now? Karzai is Afghanistan's main drug lord ...

And further. I love these experts. You can see where the "legs grow" from the expert:

Makienko Konstantin Vladimirovich. Deputy Director of the Center.

In 1995, he graduated with honors from the Eastern Department of the Department of International Relations of MGIMO-University of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 1996, he graduated from the Franco-Russian Master in Political Science and International Relations. In 1996-1997, he was Director of the Conventional Arms Project of the Center for Political Studies in Russia (PIR Center). From 1997 to the present - Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. Author of numerous articles on military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries.

We look at what a PIR center is:

The PIR Center for Political Studies of Russia is an independent non-governmental organization that carries out extensive research, information, educational, publishing and consulting activities. From the moment of its foundation (April 1994) to the present, the PIR Center's priority areas of scientific interest are international security, arms control and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

The PIR Center's headquarters are located in Moscow. In addition, the Canton of Geneva is home to the Center russe d'etudes politiques (CREP) initiated by the PIR Center, which represents the organization's interests in Switzerland.

Established in 1994, branch in Switzerland. Does this suggest any thoughts to you? Who are we working for, expert?