Military Review

The Falkland Scenario may repeat on the Kuril Islands: expert opinions

45
The Falkland Scenario may repeat on the Kuril Islands: expert opinions

The unstable situation in the entire post-Soviet space can be brought to a critical point at any time. This was stated by the deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Konstantin Makienko 29 September in Moscow during a round table on the topic "What war is the Russian army ready for?", Reports the news agency REX.


“As for probable threats, this topic has been discussed. I repeat: of course, today there is such a picture that the maximum military threats for Russia are in Central Asia: this is the internal instability of despotic states, and the import of instability from Afghanistan. This probability is associated with the coming to power of the Taliban regime, but Pakistan, who has been in crisis for 20 years, and which regime can jump out there, also needs to be watched, this is a question. The Pakistani army is a very good army, which is even higher than the Indian army in quality. But I would also say that the entire post-Soviet zone is a zone of potential risks and conflicts. The entire configuration of the Belovezhskaya system is illegal, and there is a risk of its transformation. This whole system has been in crisis since 1992. I think that this instability can be brought to a critical point at any moment, ”the expert fears.

The specialist also drew attention to the tense situation in the Far East: “Another important region is the Far East, and this is due to foreign policy. I would draw attention to the probability of the Falkland scenario for the Kuriles. Although they say that Japan will not decide on this step, there were also few people in Britain who thought about the implementation of the Falkland scenario. Beat the Kurils will be difficult. I would not appreciate the possibility of problems with China, but there are risks: the collapsing infrastructure of China and at the same time the enormous resources of the Far East. 20 trillions on rearmament is the absolute minimum. In fact, according to some estimates, rearmament requires about 50 trillions. This is the minimum minimum of what is needed, and the maximum maximum of what a country can give. ”

Viktor Litovkin, editor-in-chief of the Independent Military Review weekly, did not agree with Konstantin Makienko about the threat from the Pakistani army: “The participation of Pakistan in the conflicts in Central Asia seems to me a great fantasy. In order for Pakistan to reach Central Asia, it is necessary to go through the whole of Afghanistan. The question is that the teachings of Center-2011 are part of large exercises that took place throughout Russia.

Lukashenko felt that he should contribute to the CSTO, because otherwise the troops would not come to his aid. The participation of the Ukrainian battalion in the exercises is also a significant moment. The participation of all military units is indicative, but note that the exercises were primarily strategic in scope, but the brigades actually worked, that is, the effect of the local conflict and the effectiveness of the reforms over the past three years were worked out. These are serious large-scale maneuvers of troops. It seems to me that the focus on Central Asia and the desire to develop scenarios of action against religious extremist organizations is not entirely justified, because armies cannot fight popular unrest. Indeed, Al-Qaeda network systems exist everywhere, they are deeply conspiratorial, they are being prepared, and they will act gradually, disturbing the population. Which army and which Tanks can be against them? It is important that you will need to spend 90% of finances on the undevelopment of such events. And turning Bishkek into Grozny of the 90s is not serious. Need to fight with extremist organizations. This was the only serious flaw in the teachings. ”

As reported earlier by the REX news agency, the director of the World Trade Analysis Center weapons Igor Korotchenko said that the main external threat to Russia could come from Central Asia. “There is a need for us to develop military contacts in Kazakhstan. In the framework of cooperation, it is necessary to strengthen the Kazakhstan armed assault potential aviation. This is extremely important, because in the event of threats of instability, the country could be given support, ”the expert is sure.
Originator:
http://www.iarex.ru
45 comments
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  1. Sergh
    Sergh 1 October 2011 12: 08 New
    +4
    So many things at once, like big men and they’re terrifying to catch up at once! Well, play, would be in CounterStrike and everything became clear. And then Pakistan is already in Tajikistan, they do more fucking! Go learn the map, flup.
    1. Ivan35
      Ivan35 1 October 2011 17: 24 New
      +4
      I agree - Pakistan will not get into Russia against Central Asia - it’s far from having a regular army there - secondly, the regular army (even assuming a fantastic throw through Afghanistan to Tajikistan) is vulnerable - even a “weakened” CSTO will cope with such an adversary

      Secondly, Pakistan does not need a confrontation with Russia now - it will be enough for India too - and the pendos are not looking at them friendly

      Much more dangerous is the "molecular" penetration of Wahhabism ideas and riots with a guerrilla war in Tajikistan - could spread to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan - Kazakhstan will be in a difficult situation - it will have a zone of instability on its borders - and the "propagandists" will penetrate southern regions from Central Asia

      Here it is the threat scenarios for Russia in the SA - and behind the Wahhabists (who pays them) old enemies will stand - Saudi Saxons and Pendos from Afghanistan
      1. Sergh
        Sergh 2 October 2011 04: 15 New
        +3
        So, Central Asia has been boiling for a long time. The instigators in Kazakhstan began to be caught. In principle, they are everywhere, on sowing. in the Caucasus, we also have not gone extinct. In general, I have the impression that they have a maternity hospital there and they will always be there.
        But the essence of the matter is different, sort of like the Kuril Islands, this is the Falklands-2 and that they can not be recaptured, if-what! Completely bare islands (without population), each movement is seen by the Far-Eastern radars, discharged air traffic, which facilitates observation. What Falklands are you talking about? Even at the first landing of the Marines (Japan) ashore, they only have time to drink tea and pee. Aerial target designation with electronic warfare and further surface and submarine fleets, they will drown this island there, or they will burn everything down to grasshoppers.
        And mericosa won't get into this game, it's not their land. If only in a word, ammo, hand-bring it. There are many of our submariners (I think), they will cover, and the rest is aviation. Well, all this of course, God forbid.
        1. Ivan35
          Ivan35 2 October 2011 18: 40 New
          0
          Here, too, I agree with your "God forbid!" - I personally hope that pendos now have different priorities and they won’t push the samurai to the Kuril Islands - otherwise it’s hard for us

          Somehow it turned out well that while Russia is weak and fragmented - there is no powerful united front against us in the Far East - China must deal with Taiwan - and they have questions with the Japanese - North Korea from South - Vietnam to the south also has China - this muddy time can be won out for water - only this time should not be wasted - but strengthened according to the full program - first of all, create a confederation of 3 republics - and somehow attract Ukraine
  2. cyberspace
    cyberspace 1 October 2011 12: 20 New
    +6
    China's crumbling infrastructure
    - the author of what smoked?
    1. raf
      raf 1 October 2011 18: 26 New
      +2
      He probably sniffed acetone!
    2. Vadivak
      Vadivak 1 October 2011 22: 00 New
      +1
      On the Kuril Islands (smoked) is written the same
    3. Col.
      Col. 3 October 2011 11: 28 New
      -1
      There is clearly a typo. Must be "evolving."
  3. atheist
    atheist 1 October 2011 12: 37 New
    0
    it is clear to everyone that China, India, the United States, Russia, a little Turkey and Iran make politics in Asia (something has quieted down recently)
  4. merkawa
    merkawa 1 October 2011 12: 46 New
    +4
    The Kuril Islands are not the Falklands and we are not Argentina. Here we love ourselves to stigmatize ourselves in the blood or something.
    1. AleksUkr
      AleksUkr 1 October 2011 20: 28 New
      -1
      In light of the latest exercises in the east of our country, it is worth considering. After all, they were closely watched by the United States and Japan. It is difficult to say what thoughts arose in them, looking at our "confident" actions. Yes, we are not Argentina, but we are not the USSR, which everyone was afraid of, and therefore respected.
  5. BOSS
    BOSS 1 October 2011 13: 36 New
    0
    So we are in this article in the role of Argentina or what we get)))) If the japas are masochists, let them invade. Old Japanese are fully aware of what deja vu :)
    1. slan
      slan 1 October 2011 22: 14 New
      0
      Argentina attacked (like Japan), and the British (like the Russian Federation) did not seem to believe in such impudence until recently. About the same article.
      1. BOSS
        BOSS 2 October 2011 11: 26 New
        0
        Yes, I'm joking, Argentina, of course, then got it in the teeth well, although the British got it.
  6. fedor
    fedor 1 October 2011 13: 38 New
    0
    My friends, today we are weak as never before, and the Far East is not protected at all. The Kuril Islands, definitely, if Japan decides to take this step, will be captured by it in a few days. Then it will be too late to wave your fists, and Japan will have strong support, our leadership does not dare to recapture the islands. What do you think?
    1. Sanzyro
      Sanzyro 1 October 2011 13: 44 New
      0
      And you go here http://topwar.ru/7236-minoborony-reshilo-pustit-akuly-na-metallolom.html There competent "analysts" on the fingers will explain to you how powerful our fleet is, how smart our defense doctrine is, and all your anxiety, how to take off your hand!
      1. Sanzyro
        Sanzyro 1 October 2011 17: 34 New
        0
        Ironically, I look tight ...
    2. zczczc
      zczczc 1 October 2011 13: 57 New
      0
      fedorif Japan is even designated by a pair of ships off our islands, in a day there will be “accidentally” US carriers. "Passed by," they say, "decided to stop by."

      I am sincerely incomprehensible to these strange megalithic civil buildings on about. Russian, for example. And not only. What is the point of them? There, military bases need to be strengthened, not summits to be held ...
      1. slan
        slan 1 October 2011 14: 07 New
        +1
        Investments were sent there at the summit. The standard of living must be raised because. Modern wars do not win so much with guns.
    3. slan
      slan 1 October 2011 14: 10 New
      0
      Quote: fedor
      What do you think?

      It would be so, would have been captured long ago.
      Japan is too vulnerable. But nobody argues about the need for rearmament.
  7. Evil Tatar
    Evil Tatar 1 October 2011 14: 34 New
    +1
    Friends, at the beginning of 2011 they told me (reliable sources) that in February 2011, a confrontation between ours and the Japanese already took place in the coastal waters of the Kuril Islands ...
    Pounded from large-caliber on our civilian and military sides, ours answered. On the other side, they deployed landing craft for landing on the islands, but the Fokusima events prevented ...
    In addition, IMPORTANT officials, by then, had written reports and brought their families to the mainland ...
    Think about it ... Is Fokushima a natural disaster or the action of a weapon based on other physical properties?
    1. Russian 1970
      Russian 1970 1 October 2011 15: 44 New
      -1
      If there was a confrontation, it would have been known for a long time. And the parts that are in the Kuril Islands, would give a light to the Japs all that they have. The beginning of the 90s, Tajikistan, the border - remember!
      1. Evil Tatar
        Evil Tatar 2 October 2011 15: 44 New
        -3
        Yes, that was unih, at that moment ...
        Cannon fodder? And that’s not enough ...... Damn these ...
      2. zavesa01
        zavesa01 4 October 2011 10: 11 New
        -1
        What are the parts on the smokers? Under the USSR, there were still, and now everything except the border guards is empty. And for the local population, Japan is closer and dearer.
  8. cabin boy
    cabin boy 1 October 2011 16: 10 New
    -1
    "Experts" gathered, smoked tea and how come on "competent" opinions on the mountain to issue wink
    1. LESHA pancake
      LESHA pancake 2 October 2011 14: 47 New
      -1
      Express your competent opinion.
  9. fedor
    fedor 1 October 2011 17: 10 New
    -1
    Thanks for answers. As the saying goes "we will see ..."
  10. Sorry
    Sorry 1 October 2011 17: 51 New
    -1
    While Pakistan is not interested in this area. But for us this piece of Asia is very, very. When the Americans leave Afghanistan and the power passes to the Taliban, the Taliban will be in Central Asia the next day. What it promises us is a war with them. In the Far East everything is complicated. The Japanese today are not afraid of us. Although our people living on these islands and even on Sakhalin for the most part do not mind living under Japan. In reality, the whole of D. Vostok is already Chinese and our women give birth to children from them, people go to rest to China, they learn the language and somehow they’re no longer striving for the center of Russia. Although it’s because there is no money at all. Here from the Japanese, China will help us within the BRIC, but will set the price. For them, the territory is the most reasonable price.
  11. подводник
    подводник 1 October 2011 18: 15 New
    0
    Well Pakistan was given to you! He has problems above the roof! Where will he go?

    And the fact that the Americans do not recognize our sovereignty over these 4 islands is a fact, and they are quite intrusively demanding that we negotiate with them on this topic! And we, as expected, overwhelmed them with humanitarian aid, after the well-known events, and continue to deliver gas at a very ridiculous price in huge volumes! Well, just like in 41 !!!!!!!!!!!
  12. Motherland
    Motherland 1 October 2011 18: 47 New
    -1
    Neither China nor Japan will simply drag out a war with us, since we, as a defense party, have every right to use nuclear weapons, Japan has already said that, and China is too smart to run into meaningless losses, it’s easier for them to crush a smaller country ...
  13. kagorta
    kagorta 1 October 2011 19: 08 New
    0
    China will not fight with us, but only assimilate quietly. Those who just did not conquer, but in the end there were only Chinese. And now they are quietly climbing in all directions and climbing, moreover through the economy and humanitarian projects.
    An optimist is learning English, a pessimist is learning Chinese, and a realist is a Kalashnikov assault rifle.
    1. AleksUkr
      AleksUkr 1 October 2011 20: 56 New
      -1
      The last phrase is normal and fair. But the Chinese are a vengeful people. And this must not be forgotten. Beware and prepare for a serious conflict, the victory of which in the current state of our army is problematic.
  14. Motherland
    Motherland 1 October 2011 20: 32 New
    -1
    Quote: kagorta
    An optimist is learning English, a pessimist is learning Chinese, and a realist is a Kalashnikov assault rifle.

    Golden words, I chose the last option for myself, well, the first one goes according to the program)
  15. Siberian
    Siberian 1 October 2011 20: 37 New
    +2
    In order to take the Kuril Islands, it is necessary to carry out a sea landing operation (if anyone forgot, these are the islands). For MAO, landing craft are needed. Looking at the "native" Wikipedia, you can see that the Self-Defense Forces of Japan have - 3 landing helicopter transport docks and 2 small landing ships. On this site (http://ship.bsu.by/ship.aspx?guid=100704) I found a link about these vessels (or the like). Even if they are all the same, the total number of marines transported by them will be 1500–2000. To capture the Kuril Islands will not be enough. Again, from 1989 to 2000, I served in Sakhalin. Been in the southern Kuril Islands. There are not many places for landing.
    1. zavesa01
      zavesa01 4 October 2011 10: 20 New
      -1
      The problem is that the landing (if any) will take place on completely empty islands. On these islands, their underground communications have remained since the 2nd World War. When leaving the islands, the adits were mined and undermined. We do not have underground communications cards. For example, on about. Matua was the residence of the emperor during the surrender of Japan, the island was empty.
  16. slan
    slan 1 October 2011 20: 39 New
    -1
    Quote: kagorta
    An optimist is learning English, a pessimist is learning Chinese, and a realist is a Kalashnikov assault rifle.

    And not realist English? So it’s more logical IMHO, to gather to teach others their language more optimistically, well, to be conquered by the Anglo-Saxons even more, also somehow does not sound optimistic.
  17. APASUS
    APASUS 1 October 2011 21: 23 New
    +2
    I would pay attention to the likelihood of the Falkland scenario for the Kuril Islands

    Return of the Kuril Islands, this is internal information, so to speak, for local use! But after the tsunami, Japan stopped a number of investment projects around, This says that they need money. The capture of the Kuril Islands is a pure adventure ............. ... newspaper bird!
  18. kosmos84
    kosmos84 1 October 2011 22: 12 New
    0
    Japan-Kuril Islands, Finnnam-Karelia, Estonian-Pechory (Pskov region) _- something doh% I want to
    1. LESHA pancake
      LESHA pancake 2 October 2011 14: 50 New
      -2
      Brothers don’t fantasize that there are enough problems for Japs with a nuclear station of Fukushima and smokers are so much a toothache.
  19. ztk1
    ztk1 1 October 2011 23: 31 New
    +2
    I think that if they started military operations against us, they would start them from all sides almost simultaneously (I would have organized my vassals in the place of the Pindos - Japan, Georgia, the EU would have overcome Kaliningrad) and it would have turned out that our great commanders were I would be at a loss in determining the direction of the main attack, as a result of the surrender of a nuclear suitcase to the custody of some democratic country. I hope that this will not happen.
    1. kosmos84
      kosmos84 2 October 2011 18: 36 New
      -1
      it seems to me that it will be so (the moral of that fairy tale is such a shadlu pi% even a lion)
  20. datur
    datur 2 October 2011 00: 21 New
    +1
    ztk1, of course, an interesting idea (those who want to profit from our territories are the sea), but there’s no answer to getting a rocket.
  21. LeonidLey
    LeonidLey 2 October 2011 01: 42 New
    +1
    Shooting in the Kuril Islands is not needed. War policy has long changed. Do you know that half of the Kuril population would agree to join Japan? Advocacy of different religions, material assistance to Japan, the stratification (fragmentation) of society are gradually doing their job. The Japanese have long been fishing in our waters. As long as our government is engaged in stuffing of our pockets, we will find ourselves in a complete island, but we are already in it.
  22. SVD
    SVD 2 October 2011 22: 54 New
    0
    Bullshit! At the beginning of 1800, everybody in Russia was lazy, they studied French - the Russians came to Paris, in the forties - the last century they learned German - the Russians captured Berlin, now we learn Aglopendos and Chinese - what lies ahead? Do not piss, break through!
  23. DEfindER
    DEfindER 3 October 2011 16: 21 New
    -1
    I agree that in the event of a seizure, he smoked Japan, our pres will say his favorite phrase - "Well, people's lives are more important to us than political ambitions, and we can do without smokers"
    he didn’t even decide on a small war, but he would surrender Russia with giblets!

    In general, if you think that Japan’s Kuril Islands are not really needed, you can’t build cities on such islands, they are too small, purely for the sake of resources, but they buy them cheap anyway .. Even Hokaydo Island is very poorly populated, their density is very low, therefore, they will not move to the Kuril Islands is a fact ..

    Militarily, Japan is now a very strong country, and it can be lighted up by anyone, if their population is equal to the population of the Russian Federation, then the army is approximately equal in size and armed with the latest weapons .. I think that if they attack us at once from several of the parties, as the NATO pack usually likes to do, it will not be easy to fight back, and they’re not hoping for nuclear weapons, because the launch of any ICBM will lead to the launch of the Amer ICBMs and the destruction of the planet ..
  24. puffnutiy
    puffnutiy 3 October 2011 16: 53 New
    -1
    I don’t understand why everyone accuses the Taliban of all horrors? Under the Taliban, drug trafficking across the Tajik-Afghan border has fallen significantly. And now? Karzai is Afghanistan's main drug lord ...

    And further. I love such experts. You look from where the expert "legs grow":

    Makienko Konstantin Vladimirovich. Deputy Director of the Center.

    In 1995, he graduated with honors from the Eastern Department of the Department of International Relations of MGIMO-University of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 1996, he graduated from the Franco-Russian Master in Political Science and International Relations. In 1996-1997, he was Director of the Conventional Arms Project of the Center for Political Studies in Russia (PIR Center). From 1997 to the present - Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. Author of numerous articles on military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries.


    We look at what a PIR center is:

    The PIR Center for Political Studies of Russia is an independent non-governmental organization that carries out extensive research, information, educational, publishing and consulting activities. From the moment of its foundation (April 1994) to the present, the PIR Center's priority areas of scientific interest are international security, arms control and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

    The headquarters of the PIR Center is located in Moscow. In addition, the Center for Political Studies of Russia (Center russe d'etudes politiques (CREP)), created on the initiative of the PIR Center, is located on the territory of the canton of Geneva, representing the interests of the organization in Switzerland.


    Established in 1994, branch in Switzerland. Does this suggest any thoughts to you? Who are we working for, expert?