Drone victims: how to reduce losses among the population?
The sinister back of the coin are civilian casualties. During the performance of any combat missions in the conditions of human settlements, the possibility of civilian deaths is never excluded. The practice of using a UAV to search for and destroy targets is completely within this terrible logic. During strikes against enemy targets, primarily various illegal armed groups, civilians who are not involved in the activities of such organizations are regularly killed and injured.
Mass use drones as a means of destroying enemy fighters began in the first years of the last decade, when official Washington declared war on international terrorism. Over time, UAVs became more and more widespread, and strike vehicles were increasingly used to eliminate certain targets. According to 2011 data, at least 30 leaders and about 1100-1800 ordinary militants were destroyed with the help of missiles launched from drones. Such figures became the reason for the appearance of numerous analytical articles in which UAVs were declared a unique and universal means of solving combat missions and eliminating these targets.
In 2011, the Military Review magazine published the article Death From Above. UAV and Losing the Hearts and Minds ("Death from above. UAV and the loss of hearts and minds"). The author of this publication, Jeffrey A. Sluka, cited some very interesting, but frightening numbers. He considered not only successful cases of use of UAVs, but also civilian casualties associated with the operation of such equipment. Identified figures describing casualties among the population are a cause for concern. Analysis of the results of the use of UAVs showed that this technique has insufficient efficiency and requires some modifications.
The author of the article in the Military Review recalled the statements of the Pentagon: For many years, US military officials have said that one of the foundations of combat work is the use of high-precision weapons, which allows you to eliminate terrorists with minimal damage to the civilian population, or even do without it. Indeed, in recent years, guided bombs and missiles have firmly taken their place in the nomenclature of weapons of the Air Force and aviation The US Navy, showing its capabilities in real conflict.
Jeffrey A. Sluka provided interesting numbers. So, from 14 January 2006 of the year to 8 of April 2009, the United States Air Force performed 60 air strikes using MQ-1 Predator drone on targets in Pakistan. However, only 10 attacks led to the elimination of the selected target. Thus, only 17% combat missions were completed. Simultaneously, unmanned missiles rocket 687 killed civilians. Thus, 10 targets (both individual warlords and militant groups) accounted for nearly seven hundred civilian casualties. In other words, on average one hit target had almost 70 dead or about 11-12 dead for each of the hits made. Not very high efficiency, at least in the destruction of terrorists.
Pakistan Body Count Pakistan’s human rights organization in spring 2011 of the year cited statistics for a longer period. From the start of operations with the use of UAVs and until May 2011, American drones killed 2205 civilians, another 909 man was injured. Any calculations of statistics or absolute and relative numbers show that the use of unmanned aerial vehicles with guided missiles is much less efficient than is commonly believed. Indeed, UAVs are capable of destroying these targets — individual militants, troops, transport, and objects — however, often such liquidations are associated with an unacceptably large number of casualties among the population.
It should be recalled that one of the main reasons for the emergence and subsequent development of unmanned aerial vehicles was the need to preserve the life and health of their pilots when performing complex tasks. UAVs do an excellent job with such tasks. Medium and heavy shock apparatus can be controlled from a distance of hundreds and thousands of kilometers, making the destruction of the command post is at least an extremely difficult task. Moreover, some opponents simply can not harm the operator of the unmanned complex.
Nevertheless, the convenience and safety of its specialists in practice is accompanied by an increased risk for the civilian population, which is clearly demonstrated by the loss figures in Pakistan. As a result, there is a need to take some measures that will reduce civilian casualties and increase the effectiveness of combat missions.
Despite a certain cynicism typical of the military when planning operations, it is necessary to do everything possible to reduce the number of victims among the population. This should be done not only for reasons of humanism, but also for strategic reasons. The fact is that a civilian who has lost as a result of hostilities - including a strike from a UAV - housing, relatives or friends, becomes an "easy target" for various adversary propagandists. After some processing, he can replenish the ranks of the enemy. Thus, the careless destruction of several militants may result in new additions to their group.
A good illustration of the risks associated with recruiting militants is the events of the fall of 2009. In October, the field commander Ghulam Yahya Akbari was killed by 2009 by American UAVs using guided missiles. About 5 thousand people came to his funeral. Thus, the death of only one member of an armed formation, even a high-ranking one, angered a large number of people. It is unlikely that anyone can say how many volunteers joined the ranks of the armed forces after the liquidation.
In the article Death From Above. UAV and Losing the Hearts and Minds also gives other interesting figures. At the end of 2008, American experts interrogated 42 captive Taliban fighters. As it turned out, 12 interrogated witnessed the death of their relatives during the rocket attack of the drone. Six more were not hit by the blows, but it was precisely because of such attacks that they decided to join the ranks of the armed formations. In addition, a large number of civilians, having survived the blow or become its witness, goes into the category of "sympathizers" and tries to provide support to the Taliban.
The question of reducing civilian casualties is currently relevant only for countries that have medium and heavy drone-purpose UAVs in service. In the future, similar problems may arise in other countries, including Russia. Thus, the Russian military is already required to take into account foreign experience and draw conclusions that may be useful in the future, when new threats arise. Such studies on the mistakes of others will avoid new problems in the operation of their unmanned systems.
Several factors have led to the death of the civilian population when trying to eliminate terrorists in Afghanistan, Pakistan or Iraq. Perhaps the most important is the problem of finding and finding targets. When planning operations using UAVs, proper operation of intelligence services, including troop intelligence, as well as communications and control, is of great importance. Due to the coordinated work of different structures, it is possible not only to find the desired goal, but also to choose the optimal moment for an attack. It is not necessary to remind you that you should not launch a rocket-bomb strike on a target located among dense urban areas. The probability of its defeat in this case tends to zero, and the risk of killing non-involved persons and damaging the infrastructure, by contrast, is extremely high.
Thus, a special approach is required to identify the location of the target, followed by the selection of the most advantageous moment for an attack. Naturally, it is not always possible to catch the moment when the goal appears, as they say, in an open field and without protection. However, this does not mean that the strike should be immediately after the detection of the target.
The second problem, to a certain extent, relates to the first, but can be highlighted in a separate paragraph. Despite the development of observation tools, the drone operator still cannot receive a sufficiently high-quality image in high resolution. The field of view of optical-electronic systems is still too large, which makes it difficult to accurately identify objects or people. As a result, there remains the risk of an attack by civilian cars or houses taken as transport or enemy targets. The same problem exists with respect to the identification of individuals and groups of people.
Another controversial issue affecting the number of casualties and the extent of destruction concerns the ammunition used. The main strike vehicle of modern United States UAVs are AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-ground missiles. Missiles of this type are equipped with cumulative and high-explosive fragmentation warheads weighing 8 kg. In certain situations, such as when shooting at a target in a locality, the power of such a warhead may be excessive to accomplish the task. As a result, unnecessary damage and civilian casualties are possible.
The modern development of means of guidance, providing the possibility of hitting small targets, allows us to expand the range of weapons drums UAV. For example, in recent years, several projects of promising guided missiles have been created in the United States based on the Hydra 70 unguided missile aggregates. Such weapons can hit targets at ranges up to 10-12 km with relatively high accuracy. New light guided missiles carry warheads weighing no more than 1-2 kg, which can significantly reduce collateral damage.
It should also be noted that new light missiles are mainly equipped with a laser guidance system and require third-party target designation. Thus, it becomes possible to increase the probability of correctly identifying a small target to a certain extent. To do this, there must be a reconnaissance group in its area, whose duties should include finding and highlighting detected targets. As a result, the likelihood of incorrect identification of objects or people due to insufficient characteristics of onboard UAV surveillance systems is reduced. The task of the drone operator in this case is only access to the specified area and the launch of the rocket on the marked target. This method of using unmanned vehicles has been used for a long time and has proven itself. However, it is not always possible to send a reconnaissance group to the area of the intended target location.
It's no secret that almost all armed conflicts are accompanied by civilian casualties. A similar problem exists in the context of other operations with the use of various weapons. It is hardly possible to completely get rid of this problem, but there are techniques for reducing losses. According to some reports, in recent years, the effectiveness of the US UAVs in terms of the ratio of the liquidated militants and civilians killed has slightly improved. Nevertheless, the Pentagon has much to strive for and work on.
Due to the lack of medium and heavy drums of the UAV, similar to the American MQ-1 Predator, MQ-9 Reaper, etc., our country now has the opportunity to carefully study the foreign experience of operating such equipment and draw all the necessary conclusions. Due to this, in the future, new methods of using UAVs can appear, both independently and as part of various control and communication systems, aimed at improving the efficiency of performing tasks and reducing the attendant damage or losses among civilians. How exactly and in what conflicts of the future such techniques will be used - it is too early to speak. Nevertheless, it is already clear that in order to fully exploit the new technology, new methods and approaches are needed, corresponding to its tasks and features.
On the materials of the sites:
http://svpressa.ru/
http://bbc.co.uk/
http://нато.рф/
http://riss.ru/
http://globalsecurity.org/
http://defense-update.com/
http://designation-systems.net/
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