On the new political situation

On the new political situationA new political situation is emerging in Russia. It seems to me that the main thing in this situation is not that Vladimir Putin announced the start of his election campaign. This is a long-forecasted event. The main thing in another - in the new alignment of political forces. The failure of the project of the updated “Right Party” with the oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov at the head led to the fact that the Communist Party remained on the left flank almost in splendid isolation political structure to actually influence the electoral process), and on the right - United Russia. Earlier in the Kremlin, apparently, it was thought that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation would ideologically compete with the liberals of Prokhorov, but it turned out that it would have to compete with one political rival, United Russia.


Moreover, the priorities in ideology in many areas will be on the side of the Communist Party. After all, the entire period after the financial crisis of 2008, "United Russia" more and more shifted to the left, remaining the party of the center. Now, any shift to the left is a loss of face before the onslaught of the Communists. Not the United Russia party remains in the political center, but Putin alone (whose election as president is unlikely to raise doubts). Moreover, in recent years, a significant shift to the left, that is, towards the Communists, has already occurred in the consciousness of the population (or, as they say, the "electorate"). This is evidenced by surveys of all Russian sociological centers, as well as the results of voting on all resonant political programs on TV. The most amazing thing is that the Kremlin itself contributed to this field of consciousness of the masses by organizing numerous historical TV show featuring Sergei Kurginyan.

Kurginyan, in fact, recoded the matrix of public consciousness, which has dominated the last twenty years. If Putin will only occupy the side of United Russia and move to the right, then a situation may arise that is close to 1993, Boris Yeltsin, with the “reformers” against the communists and national patriots. The fact that the national - the patriots at the level of the electorate will traditionally go along with the communists, and not with the KRO Dmitry Rogozin (who entered Putin's “Popular Front”), is hardly in doubt. But "zero years" - not the nineties. The Arab Revolutions gave an example of any opposition. It is unlikely that Putin will want to conduct similar experiments in modern Russia. The Kremlin is really afraid of the Russian version of the “Arab” twitter-color revolutions. Only this can explain the cancellation of the previously approved plan to promote Prokhorov to power. What scared the Kremlin was at the last stage of this project? I think the “orangism” of the situation around Prokhorov. He was in the hands of: his "honestly acquired" billions of dollars, which can be used at his own discretion and not accountable to anyone; charismatic Yevgeny Roizman, capable of leading both a democratic and a criminal "street"; the project of the All-Russian "Drug-Free City", which would structure this "street" on a national scale; American Basketball Club, which allows its owner (Prokhorov) to quickly enter into direct informal contacts in the business and political elite of the United States; Ukrainian political technologists are "Orange", who have specific experience in the period of color revolutions. At the last stage in the Kremlin (or in the Lubyanka), they realized that they themselves were introducing "for the teeth" a "Trojan horse" capable of becoming Putin's real competitor in the presidential election.

In the new political situation, when the “Orange” can become the left, the most optimal option for Putin is to have to rise above the clash already during the Duma elections, to create an image of a political leader uniting rather than separating the nation. Putin’s repetition of the mistake of Yeltsin, who did not become such a common leader, could lead to a new tragedy, like the “black October” of 1993. If Putin does not occupy any one side, then he will not need the ultra-high figures of the victory of United Russia in the elections to the State Duma. He just need to be honest elections. He will need such figures as the former head of the State Drug Control Agency Viktor Cherkesov, among the leaders of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (already included at the congress of the Communists in the top ten of the federal list). It will be beneficial for him to give a number of posts of key committees to the left, that is, to the communists. Maintaining this right-left balance is important for Putin and in fact during the presidential election. The main rival for him, as in his time and for Yeltsin, will be Gennady Zyuganov. Elective stamps Yeltsin with pictures of the GULAG - in 2012, the year will not work. Suffice it to recall that the Kremlin’s attempt to conduct a new de-Stalinization in the country according to the methodology of Mikhail Fedotov and Sergey Karaganov was completely rejected in Russian society. Moreover, in all its layers. This is evidenced by all sociological measurements conducted by renowned research centers. Putin will have to use rhetoric, as well as conceptual solutions of both the right and the left. The "leader of the nation" must be recognized by all. After the presidential election, a favorable balance for Putin is the right-wing government headed by Dmitry Medvedev and the left-wing Duma. This balance is especially necessary for Putin in international relations, given the "love" for him of a number of European and American politicians.

We are entering the REAL POLICY band. It can turn around both tragically and constructively optimistic. But the stagnation, which many political scientists are talking about, is clearly not foreseen.
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  1. Vadivak 29 September 2011 08: 50 New
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    Yeltsin’s elective stamps with GULAG pictures will not work in 2012.

    That's for sure, and Kurginyan had a hand in this.
  2. KuigoroZHIK 29 September 2011 09: 21 New
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    I really want to believe in this state of affairs .......
  3. stas 29 September 2011 10: 56 New
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    I basically agree with the author of the article, Vladimir Ovchinsky.

    GDP really understands that, people under the banners of United Russia are in no hurry to build a capitalist paradise.
    The protest against the current tandem policy is growing. In order to remain in power, the GDP is forced to take measures to prevent unrest, he clearly does not need the events of 1993 of the year. No one will allow or forgive him to shoot repeatedly from tanks at the parliament. How then forgave EBNu.

    And he is forced to take real steps, and I think he has already begun to take them.
    1. He handed over leadership in EP DAM, which obviously will not add authority and votes to her.
    2. The status of Fair Russia is lowered, most likely their electorate will go over to the Communist Party.
    3. The events with Prokhorov indicate a rejection of the right liberal idea.

    And if those who are against the tandem policy are not too lazy and still come to the elections to the State Duma, then there is a real chance that the EP will not gain more than 50% of the vote. And this is a more positive alignment of political forces with which the GDP will be obliged and forced to reckon.
  4. Agnislav
    Agnislav 29 September 2011 13: 04 New
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    Real politics say?
    No stagnation expected?
    Subtext: "Go to the polls,
    United Russia repent "!

    But in general, you don’t have to walk,
    They will decide without you, even the left, even the right,
    That's just not worth talking about politics -
    So the brave guys share power.
  5. zczczc
    zczczc 29 September 2011 13: 27 New
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    The analysis as a whole is true: Putin has two problems:
    a) how to win the election with a minimum of sketches;
    b) how to prevent the collapse of the country by winning.

    He can win elections only as a leftist or center-left candidate. So, it will look like a left-centrist.

    To prevent the collapse of the country can only be nationalization. He understood this long ago, why he began to create monopolies - a kind of compromise between the form of ownership and manageability. Putin has long realized that managing the country with a large abundance of private enterprises is impossible. In addition, a lot of private business money periodically generates candidates for a piece of power - the Khodorkovsky and Prokhorovs.

    T.O. Putin understands that his future path is close in form and in essence to the Communists. But he cannot look like a communist either in front of Europe, the plan of unification with which has not yet been thrown out, or lose the confidence of the internal oligarchs, who must obey him, at least. The task is difficult, or rather impossible.

    By the way, before the collapse of the country, power can easily be transferred to the Communists. As Obama was told in a similar situation, the inability to rule the country. It can only be very late.
  6. dmb
    dmb 29 September 2011 15: 03 New
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    But this is perhaps the only way out. When such respected commentators as mitrich write: "I am for Putin, but not for EP," then they can be understood. The only opposition force, the Communist Party, has no leader. And to carry out the nationalization of the main industries, tighten the fight against corruption, strengthen the state, we need a person who is able to make decisions. Putin showed himself in 1999 a year as such; Zyuganov was not marked in this part. I am not at all a fan of GDP and would be only glad if the ideas of the communists were promoted by a strong and convinced leader that he was right. But this unfortunately is not observed. It remains only to hope that one is not a warrior in the field, and with the victory of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Vova will be forced to reckon not only with the opinion of Deripaska and Vekselberg. Let's not forget that there are a lot of people like mitrich, and judging by the comments, they are more likely with the communists than Isaev, Volodin and Serdyukov. At least, the scenario proposed in the article has more chances to keep the country from civil war.
    1. zczczc
      zczczc 29 September 2011 15: 46 New
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      dmbIs Putin the leader of the communists? This is a nomination for a joke :)
      1. dmb
        dmb 29 September 2011 15: 56 New
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        Do you think that in case of their victory he has another way? You can, of course, like a drunkard-Borya shoot down the Duma, pull up the Kadyrov bandits and the Gazprom guard to Moscow .. But this is certainly the collapse of the country. But he wants power (he already has enough money). Maybe I’ll repeat in the comments, but you can “stick together” 20, well, 25% of the votes. And with a significant advantage, Vova’s choice is not rich. I will not vote for the presidency for him, but name for whom?
        1. zczczc
          zczczc 29 September 2011 20: 06 New
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          dmb, Putin will not allow the victory of the Communists - he can’t change the flag. And he will not allow patriots to key positions in the country, because otherwise they will quickly drive out the oligarchs, who are now somehow holding on to ears in the economy. He, in principle, may not feel sorry for some of the existing gangster elites, only this is essentially Perestroika-2, but we must go forward.

          He will simply copy the behavioral aspects of the Communists and pass them off as his own. This is called "mimicry," read the definition of the term. Why copy? Because otherwise he will soon have nothing to manage - the country will fall apart. Why it is understandable to pass off as your own - you must be a leader.

          But mimicry never replaced the original, just as emulating someone else's behavior is not equivalent to the original. Accordingly, it will only ensure that the decay processes are slowed down, but it will not eliminate the decay itself fundamentally - leeches on the budget will still be en masse, they will steal no less than now, probably even more.

          The change will be this: he will single out even more enterprises from all unmanaged Russia and will try to establish their management. The key difference is that the Communists would change the system from liberal to national, and within the liberal system it would make a national reservation from strategic enterprises and milk this reservation so that it would feed the incapable liberal part of the economy.

          As a result, everyone will believe that we have liberalism, especially in the West. Part of the people will continue to work for the bacchanalia of the other part - for the completely inadequate and useless (in the current setting) Skolkovo, Porsche Cayenne’s enemies of Russia, the liberal social model in the form of the rights of “Strategy-31” and other buggers to mutter in squares, etc. .d. etc. Those. some will work even harder, while others will create "liberal values." But, since the overall efficiency of such a system will be low, this model will not last long.

          And then, before the start of the collapse, he really can let the Communists go, both in essence and in form, to then blame them on all the foundations of the Moscow principality and small entities that fell under the protectorate of China, Japan, the USA, Europe and thereby finally bury the idea of ​​national the state ...
          1. zczczc
            zczczc 29 September 2011 20: 28 New
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            musical accompaniment to the comment:
            http://v-x.posterous.com/-volodyamp3

            :))))
          2. dmb
            dmb 29 September 2011 22: 29 New
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            Suggestions? I am familiar with the definition of the term "mimicry" both in theory and in practice. EP is entirely mimicrodona. Zhvanetsky rightly said “Hurray,” said “Forward”, just let's decide where before. Frankly speaking, I see no other way out to save the country than the Communists coming to power. They even have at least some idea of ​​preserving the country and the program has some specifics for preserving it. But Putin, in the aspect I said, can be discussed only in case of a confident victory of the Communist Party in the elections. Well, Putin will not be able, even having won the presidential election in such a situation, he will leave Serdyukov or Chubais in place. And the change of environment, perforce, will force him to change. Even the greats like Lenin and Stalin could not control without the support of the environment, and not that of an ordinary colonel-businessman.
            1. zczczc
              zczczc 29 September 2011 23: 42 New
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              dmb, that's it - without the support of the environment it is impossible to control. How can you imagine Putin surrounded by communists? They are ideological and honest guys basically - they will make him a rating of 1% in 3 months, roughly speaking, they will eat him. Massively, Putin will not be allowed to make a decision on a decision-making basis, maybe for certain tolerant individuals. But a tolerant communist is a degenerate, not a communist. For the Stalinist school.

              Ideally, Putin, if he really loves Russia, could give up the helm to the Communists, while he would help everyone he could, namely:
              - "commendable" to keep up to date;
              - to surrender to all who could potentially interfere with the Communists;
              - rigidly lobby for Russia's interests in the West;
              - Supervise monopolies, especially Gazprom.

              But he won’t do it, because it is an admission of one’s mistakes in choosing the driving force of development (liberals). The rejection of leadership for Putin is generally unrealistic.
              1. dmb
                dmb 30 September 2011 10: 21 New
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                It is difficult to imagine Putin surrounded by communists, but not entirely fantastic. He simply will have no choice. I do not think that the EBN option is possible. Then the people were more inert. Affected habit from the Soviet years. Now power is weaker and a coup is a guaranteed collapse of the country. Local buys vertical oh how dissatisfied, but there is no strength to put them in a stall. The army was gouged, the police on local support, and the people on the ground with a "good word" remember Moscow first (such a mentality), and then the local feudal lord. And if the feudal lord screams in time that the federal center did not give him to love the people, he may survive, and even lead him. [Refusal of leadership for Putin is generally unrealistic. These are your words. So draw conclusions. The Communists, having popular support, will also not agree to be on the sidelines, otherwise they will fly out in the next election. And there is support for them. I read comments not only here and on other sites. Even on the pseudo-liberal assessment of the activities of EP and Vova is overwhelmingly not in their favor.
                1. stas 30 September 2011 11: 28 New
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                  On September 29 of 2011 of the year, on TV in V. Solovyov’s program “Towards a barrier” between Zyuganov and Mironov, political scientist Fedorov announced the following figures for the whole country, no more than 55% can vote for EP now, while a third of potential voters are approximately 30-33 % have not yet decided which party to vote for or are not going to go to the polls.
                  If 10% of this category of electorate still goes to the polls and does not vote for EP, then GDP and DAM will be in the role of losers.

                  Likely before the elections to the State Duma, the tandem will take additional steps to reduce the negative against itself. It will be very difficult and dangerous for them to decide on the obvious falsification of election results, similar to the year 1996. The attitude of the United States and Europe towards Putin is ambiguous, a large landing party of observers from the European Union is being prepared, with the start of work 5 weeks before the election.
  7. Joker
    Joker 29 September 2011 15: 20 New
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    Quote: Agnislav
    Subtext: "Go to the polls, repent of United Russia!"

    Quote: Agnislav
    They will decide without you, even the left, even the right,


    It is possible that they are falsified, but then why are all state employees obliged to vote for EP, because they really don’t need real votes, if you believe it. And the second, I think if there is a subtext to this article, then it consists in the fact that the vote should be cast for the Communist Party, as opposed to the current party in power.
    1. Agnislav
      Agnislav 29 September 2011 15: 44 New
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      But is this not falsification -
      When are they obliged to vote?
      The Communist Party will remain as a fraction,
      "Edro" will decide everything!
      1. Joker
        Joker 29 September 2011 17: 18 New
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        Quote: Agnislav
        But is this not falsification -


        - the point is that not everything is so simple, and you need to go and vote.
        1. Agnislav
          Agnislav 29 September 2011 17: 33 New
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          Go Joker vote
          This is your civil law,
          Only me you do not "blat"
          I know - it’s been decided everything by “management” ...
          1. Joker
            Joker 29 September 2011 17: 39 New
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            I'm not campaigning, but I say that the more people go and vote, the more difficult it is to falsify the result, Chechnya with their 99,99% is a prime example.

            Do not want to - do not go, only I be a ram,
            I don’t want to go to the slaughter
            I’ll come and “drop it”.
          2. stas 29 September 2011 19: 11 New
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            Agnislav!
            It is time to get out of the trench, and stand on some side. Sitting in a trench and waiting for weather from the sea is not the best way to defend your constitutional rights.
            We Russians and all peoples living in Russia must believe in our strengths that we are able and obliged before our children and grandchildren to turn the tide towards a decent standard of living. For us, no one will decide or do this.
            The Chinese will not return us to socialism.
            We must force Putin to reckon with us. One way to achieve this is to go to the polls.
            The task is at least for the moment, with EP no more than 50%, for Putin no more than 51%. And you will see how the capitalist ministers fly out of government.
            1. Agnislav
              Agnislav 29 September 2011 19: 48 New
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              And who is in the trench?
              Question to you, stats!
              We are all in a deep ass
              You are talking nonsense, send you !!!
              1. stas 29 September 2011 20: 39 New
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                Agnislav?
                I think criticism should be constructive and reasoned.
                Every fool can send, only no good, but others are able to get out of the place where you are sitting deep, and this is not the best place where you can change the situation in Russia.
                1. Agnislav
                  Agnislav 29 September 2011 22: 54 New
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                  but, mined, demoted, thanks))
  8. Agnislav
    Agnislav 29 September 2011 18: 10 New
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    Come and drop the "leaflet" -
    Play roulette
    Sheep love sheep in the east,
    You noticed aptly!
    1. Joker
      Joker 30 September 2011 15: 18 New
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      Quote: Joker
      I say that the more people go and vote, the more difficult it is to falsify the result, Chechnya with their 99,99% is a vivid example.
  9. mind1954
    mind1954 30 September 2011 07: 06 New
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    I buy a TV program, and a saleswoman asks me:
    what to do, for whom to vote? I say: you want the final
    destruction of the country, vote for EP and Putin, want salvation
    countries and guidance, at least of some bourgeois order,
    vote for the Communist Party and Zyuganov. She answers me: I understand that,
    But what about the rest? Answered: Try to explain this, at least
    to your relatives and friends!

    The owners of the regime will do anything to prevent nationalization
    resources and basic industries. They will surrender both EP and DAM to push through
    GDP for the presidency, where he will sabotage it by all means !!!
    How it ends they don’t really care, considering themselves safe,
    they will fight to the last puppet
    (as the Vietnam war demonstrated)!
    1. sirToad
      sirToad 3 October 2011 13: 13 New
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      Yes, everyone understands how in 1996, too, who do not ask - Yeltsyn-deleted-. and they voted for him - they say "if God forbid the war begins for Zyuga!" although, to tell you the truth, Gene is not a leader. and I have more and more suspicions that he is a frontman on the sidelines - so that it looks like there is an alternative.