Belarus - Russia: the rusted shield of the Union
Today, in the morning, Belarusian and Russian soldiers fought shoulder to shoulder with an imaginary enemy. On September 16, the ambitious maneuvers “Union Shield - 2011” began on huge ranges Ashuluk and Gorokhovetsky in Russia. One pyrotechnics will blow up 15 tons, and drinking 12 thousands of fighters will be 120 tons of water per day.
So as not crushed, like Gaddafi
Five thousand servicemen left Belarus for training, thirty echelons with manpower and equipment.
The previous maneuvers of the allies - “Zapad-2009” (remember, when Medvedev flew to Belarus and presented Kolya Lukashenko with a golden pistol) - put Europe on the ears: they say, a strike is planned in the Baltic countries!
The current exercises in the depths of Russia will not tease NATO like that. However, according to Belarusian military analyst Alexander Alesin, the Minsk and Moscow strategists, although they are increasingly talking about threats in Central Asia (under which they are sharpening the CSTO), the “Union Shield” still doesn’t keep in mind the battle with the Taliban, but rather Libyan script.
The Taliban, thank God, has no air armadas. And at the start of the exercise, it is precisely the protection of the ground forces from the massive use of strike aviation that is being worked out, said Alesin in an interview with Naviny.by
That is how the NATO flyers suppressed the forces of Gaddafi. This plot showed: without a strong air defense, tanks and armored vehicles are only a target for pilots.
Far to "Triumph"
By the way, when the CIS air defenses, the commander of the air force and air defense forces of Belarus, Major General Sergei Lemeshevsky, recently trained separately at the same Ashuluk: “Within the framework of the agreement on the creation of a unified air defense system of Russia and Belarus, we planned to purchase new missile technology in Russia, including and C-400.
The media immediately flashed with affirmative headlines like “Belarus will soon buy the latest Russian complexes Triumph” (this is the second name C-400). But whoever monitors the topic professionally, he remembers: this is the intention of the Belarusian generals not for the first year. However, for now the situation is entirely in the spirit of the Russian saying: he will eat something, but who will give it to him!
By the way, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Air Force, Colonel-General Alexander Zelin, allowed himself a remark about the vigorous statement of the Belarusian colleague: they say, as regards the design of a unified air defense system, “so far the procedure has not been completed. There are questions about Belarus. ”
Why the Belarusian leadership is not in a hurry to put the dots on the “i” in this matter, we will say a little lower. In the meantime, we note: the issue of delivery of the latest Russian weapons the closest ally rests not at all on organizational inconsistencies, but in a trivial “little itself”.
"Unhealthy" weapons of Russia
12 of September, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, reported that the hitch was that in the Russian army itself, the recruitment of regiments and divisions with the C-400 systems was not a shaky move.
“Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov has repeatedly stated the need to build several new plants for the production of air defense missile systems. But the defense industry does not seem to cope, ”the Moscow edition, which is deeply digging the military sphere, states.
You understand that building plants is a long song. In addition, it is not only about the boxes of workshops. We need modern equipment and qualified personnel. The last Russian defense industry is sorely lacking: the hardships of the past two decades have cleaned up sensible specialists like a hose.
Today, the Russians make weapons on finished machines. In particular, although the “newest” label is proudly pasted to the C-400, they are still raw, “under-baked,” said Alexander Alesin. For example, they use old missiles from C-300.
In short, both Triumphs and Iskanders (remember, there were several information waves: they say that these PTRKs will appear in the blue-eyed republic, near the borders of NATO), Belarus will receive, at best, in ten years, our expert predicts.
Where do solid sums of petrodollars allocated by the Russian leadership to the military-industrial complex and the army go to? Alexander Alesin notes that a significant portion of these funds dissolve in an incomprehensible way: “I think the blame is colossal corruption.” This is also openly spoken by Russian analysts.
By the way, largely due to the corruption component, Alesin adds, the Russian weapons are still too expensive for Belarusians. Well, at worst, you can fork out for automatic rifles, ammunition, but tanks and airplanes are a luxury in the Belarusian budget.
Is that b / y on the cheap podfartit buy. According to the information from the Moscow Kommersant, the option of Belarus buying from Russia after modernization at the aircraft factory in Baranavichy of the Su-30K fighter party, which India has already taken advantage of, is currently pecking up. In short, on you, my God, that we do not need!
No guns, no oil
So, the picture is bleak. The glory of Russian weapons fades. MIC collapsed. Moscow itself buys drones in Israel, and helicopter carriers in France. The shield of the military alliance with Minsk rusted fairly. The Kremlin, with all its desire, cannot properly arm even its closest ally, Belarus.
And this is a fragment of the general deep crisis of Russia. It remains a backward raw country. Take away oil revenues - inevitable collapse.
Even if we take out the militaristic aspect of the Belarusian-Russian integration (cannons, tea, not butter, let's kill ourselves), then the question remains: what will crawl into the Customs Union and the SES - Putin’s projects, tying Sineokuyu to the backward, eroded yesterday’s corruption ( and only yesterday?) Empire?
“Without the western markets and technologies of Belarus, the kayuk”, - said Alesin.
In principle, official Minsk realizes the need for a western vector. Hence, the current attack of “humanism”, when political prisoners are released in batches, is a tough condition for Brussels and Washington to defrost relations. And it has to be carried out when it became difficult to scrape not only on the guns, but also on the oil.
NATO tanks - a horror story for the Kremlin
Another thing is that in the relations of the regime with the Westernizers there is a systemic conflict on the basis of values. In terms of mental, authoritarian Russia is closer to the Belarusian ruling elite. But precisely because Minsk knows well the political traditions and customs of the eastern neighbor, the Byzantine insidiousness is a little afraid of it.
With an abundance of words about the strategic alliance and fraternity in arms, Minsk in 2008 not only did not rush to support the war of the eastern ally with Georgia, but also did not recognize Abkhazia with South Ossetia. Moscow was greatly offended, fought and twisted her arms for a long time. Now resentment overcame, but the distrust between the allies remained.
Notice: something for a long time fanfare has not been heard about the United Regional Air Defense System of Belarus and Russia, advertised several years ago, which, as it was then trumpeted, was supposedly about to ... Yes, everything technically matched (since the Soviet times by and large). But - the Belarusian leadership is not in a hurry to resolve the issue of the commander of the Air Defense Force.
“Lukashenka doesn’t want someone in Moscow to give a command to launch rockets,” Alesin expresses his version.
Indeed, the delegation of authority of this kind is also parting with a piece of power. As well as an additional risk of confrontation with the West. Willingness to go under NATO tanks is only a rhetorical figure of Minsk, when it is necessary to knock out money from Moscow, and so - it’s better to get along with the damned burzhuiny.
According to Alexander Alesin, only the instinct of political self-preservation will push the Belarusian official leader to a certain game with the West.
Well, the Union Shield on Ashuluk is also good because, as BelTA informs, “Belarusian Smerch multiple rocket launchers will be able to shoot at the maximum range - up to 70 km. In Belarus, the ability to carry out such shooting is limited due to the small area of the landfills. ”
In short, we’ll shoot plenty, and the Poles and Lithuanians can sleep peacefully.
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