"Friends of Russia" expect the devastation of the Reserve Fund
Siluanov adds:
At the same time, the main reason for the fact that the budget will have to be “balanced”, and, to put it more frankly, to cut back, are again low oil prices and anti-Russian sanctions, which led to the limitation of the possibility of financial borrowing on Western credit sites. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance calls one of the options for when the Reserve Fund will not be exhausted by the 2017 year. The option in this case also rests on oil: if the price of a barrel exceeds the mark in 70 dollars. That is, the Ministry of Finance has no other options for accumulation? .. At the moment, as you know, the price of a barrel of Brent oil is being trampled around gray-green wrappers for 60-62.
The statement itself that “we should have 70 oil for the Reserve Fund to start replenishing again” is a kind of signal to those economic and political speculators who have brought oil prices down to their current levels. I remember that at that time, when oil prices were at the level of 75-80 dollars per barrel, in the same Ministry of Finance they said that, they say, the Russian economy will switch to the recession regime if the price of oil reaches $ 60 . Not a couple of weeks passed from that statement - the oil had already broken the 60 bar, after which it broke through 50 ... Trampled around 48 and actually stopped at the 60 mark, showing that below sixty is already bad for the oil starters themselves . The current price has been established precisely at the level that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation declared as “recessionary”. Those who collapse the price decided: why bring it down lower, because the economic bloc of the Russian government gave useful information - 60 dollars per barrel, so that the Russian economy would start, forgive, go in.
Based on these realities, it can be assumed that in the near future, if oil rises to the 70 level, then something cardinal will occur for the main subjects of the price collusion (primarily for the United States and Saudi Arabia). By the way, 60 dollars is also the mark that allows American shale companies to work with a certain profit, in addition being more than comfortable for those who are not used to doing anything other than drilling the desert and periodically sponsoring radical groups, the Saudis. 70, on the other hand, is unlikely, as Siluanov said that Russia, at this price of black gold, will be able to replenish the thawing Reserve Fund ...
In this regard, it can be assumed that sentiment may well prevail in the United States, which from the outside will look like quite “peacemaking”. No one, of course, will not cancel any economic sanctions imposed on Russia, as they, as part of the big game, are hoping for in Washington, but they obviously will not aggravate the situation either. Washington hawks will continue to sparkle with their eyes, calling for “punishing” Russia militarily, but the opinion of the “moderate” bloc in the same American capital may prevail. Why? Well, obviously not to show at least some warming of relations with Russia. And exactly the opposite.
One of the options for "friends of Russia" who listen to the analysis of the situation, carried out by the economic bloc of the Russian government, can be a standby mode. Namely, the standby mode of that very 2017 of the year, when, judging by the arithmetic of “Vedomosti”, arising from the reports of Minister Siluanov, the fullness of the reserve “egg cap” of the Russian Federation will reach absolute zero. We should not forget that at the end of 2016, Russia will face parliamentary elections, before which the budget is waiting for cuts - its capabilities and even the need have also been announced in the Ministry of Finance. That is the next calculation to increase the degree of discontent of Russian citizens. Like, we will wait until you pass everything, begin to sequester the budget, until the election campaign gets started, and there - with Obama or without Obama - we will try to go out with the next portion of “democratization” to the vast expanses of Russia. And in order for the wait to be "more fun", we will do everything to ensure that the conflict in the Donbas if it does not burn with a hellish flame, at least actively smolders, at the same time preventing the normal business between Russia and the European Union to resume.
If everything goes exactly this way, then what can Russia oppose to this? In principle, there is no multi-vector alternative. Waiting for oil on 70 or 80 bucks is stupid. But to try to dispose of the Reserve Fund's funds so that these funds become a tool for attracting new financial volumes and a simultaneous stimulus for the growth of the Russian economy is possible and necessary. There is a reserve: in 2014, with all its economic difficulties, Russia reduced its external debt by 1,5 billion dollars - by 2,6%, Russia, together with China, created an analogue of the international payment system SWIFT, which included the Russian credit organization 91. In addition, Russia has reached an agreement with China on the construction of two gas pipeline branches, in which the volume of raw materials supplied to the Middle Kingdom will be comparable to the volume sent to the EU. Russia signed a contract for the construction of the Turkish Stream with Ankara, participated in the consolidation of reserve financial savings in the framework of the SCO and BRICS. At the same time, funds from the Reserve Fund are assigned to the implementation of the most powerful infrastructure projects (roads, bridges, airfields, industrial associations, energy facilities) that are able to reduce the dependence of the budget exclusively on sales of “black gold” abroad. In general, the standby mode chosen by the American "partners" may well go into an irreversible hang, but only when the following conditions are met: a) stop praying for oil quotes, b) work, putting "instruments and tools" on the sanction scarecrow, ) remember that the reserve funds can come and go, and the country that we inherited from ancestors who survived and not such shocks should remain protected from any encroachments of its “big friends”.
- Alexei Volodin
- sunskay.com
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