Was there a war tomorrow?

Was there a war tomorrow?



The Turkish authorities have stated that its new political strategy requires a significant expansion of the country's naval forces in the eastern Mediterranean. This directly threatens the interests of Greece and Israel in this region.

The word "Barbarossa" (Red-bearded) in the collective memory of different nations has different semantic meanings. Among the peoples of the former USSR, it is unequivocally associated with the Nazi plan of military aggression implemented by 22 June 1941. In Western European nations - with the medieval emperor of the Holy Roman Empire of the German nation Frederick I. And among the Islamic peoples of the Mediterranean, with a very colorful character from the beginning of the New Age, who was given the name Azor at birth, but became famous as Hyredreddin, or (in another spelling) as Khaird-Din.

In the near future, this word has a chance to acquire a fourth meaning, which in its negative connotation will surpass the meaning of all the previous ones. After all, it can become a symbol of a new large-scale war, the consequences of which can be, in a certain sense, larger than even the consequences of the events of the 1941 year. If, of course, the main actors, on whom the further development of the situation depends, will not find worthy options for getting out of the current crisis unfolding these days literally before our eyes.

So: September 7 of Turkey stated that its new political strategy requires a significant expansion of the country's naval forces in the eastern Mediterranean. As part of the redeployment of the Turkish Navy, two anti-submarine frigates and rocket corvettes, as well as auxiliary vessels, will be transferred from the Black and Marmara Seas to the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. On the eve, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced that his country intends to strengthen its military presence in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea "to protect freedom of navigation."

The ships that will be on duty there will accompany the groups of ships breaking through the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip, and, if necessary, will force their way. Following this, the minister for contacts with the European Union, Egemen Bagis, spoke, saying that the Turkish Navy would not allow the EU member of the Republic of Cyprus to search for gas and oil in the Mediterranean Sea. This demarche was a response to the information of the companies Noble Energy (USA) and Delek (Israel) about the beginning of geological exploration on the shelf in the economic waters of Cyprus. Turkey does not recognize the agreements signed by Cyprus with Israel and Lebanon on the delimitation of economic zones - they say they violate the rights of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Well, soon the heavy political artillery entered the battle. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan confirmed that Turkish warships will be sent to the maritime borders of Israel and Cyprus. Erdogan took full responsibility, saying that he ordered the warships to accompany Turkish civilian vessels with humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip (which, it is worth adding, is controlled by the radical Islamist organization Hamas) and engage in battle, if on a new flotilla with goods in international waters, an attack will be made, as well as preventing Cyprus from prospecting offshore the Mediterranean.

It is these tasks (perhaps some other, which is not yet discussed) and contains the newest plan of “Barbarossa”.

All these demarches have caused harsh answers from Israel and Greece, and the answers are not only verbal. Israel was visited by the Minister of Defense of Greece Panos Beglitis, who met with the Minister of Defense Ehud Barak and signed new agreements on cooperation in the field of security.

In other words, we are talking about the classic escalation of tension in the eastern Mediterranean, which occurs before our eyes.

And events unfold further. On September 17, the Turkish side made two statements. At the eighth Yalta annual meeting “Ukraine and the World: Common Challenges, Common Future,” EU Minister Egemen Bagis stressed that the EU has double standards in relation to different countries. According to him, this EU position has already led to the fact that today in Turkey, only 8% of the population unequivocally believes that the EU is the choice of the country, and 30% oppose joining the European Union.

And according to Deputy Prime Minister Beshir Atalay, whose words are quoted by Reuters, Turkey will suspend all relations with the European Union if Cyprus presides over the EU next year. Recall that the island of Cyprus is divided into two parts: 60% is controlled by the authorities of the Republic of Cyprus, a member of the UN and the EU, inhabited mainly by the Greeks, the rest by the authorities of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, on whose territory Turkey’s troops are located. The latter does not recognize the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus, so the deputy prime minister’s statement is quite logical: "If peace talks (with Cyprus) fail, and the EU makes southern Cyprus as its chairman, there will be a real crisis between Turkey and the EU ... We will freeze our relations with the European Union ... We announce this because the government has made a decision. "

To this it is worth adding that lately Turkey has complicated relations not only with Israel, Greece, Cyprus and the whole European Union, but also with Syria and Iran. In addition, sharp criticisms from Erdogan’s lips were made to the United States. What can mean such radicalization of the words and deeds of Ankara?

It seems that this is not about an accidental set of circumstances and not about the personal whim of the overbearing Recep Erdogan. This is an attempt to radically change the policy of Turkey and seriously reconsider the achievements of the times of Ataturk. And in order to understand the new course of the Republic of Turkey, it is worth referring to the keyword that symbolizes this change - the word “Barbarossa”.

Western media have responded to the name of the Turkish Navy plan by reporting that the Turkish (more precisely, Ottoman) admiral Barbarossa in the XVI century, led the largest pirate fleet in the Mediterranean. This is true, but not all. Barbarossa was born into a Christian family; his father and he converted to Islam, when the island of Lesbos, where they lived, was captured by the Ottomans. Azor made a rapid pirate career, while serving as the Sultan of the Ottoman Porta. There was nothing unusual in this combination - Sir Francis Drake reached the admiral's rank, too, thanks to his pirate exploits, only in the service of another emerging empire - the British. However, Barbarossa did not just rob and conquered: he purposefully devastated the areas inhabited by "jyauras" (that is, Christians), destroyed cities and sold tens of thousands of prisoners to slavery. For his military and political acts, Barbarossa received from the Sultan an honorary right to be called Khair ad-Din ("Keeper of Faith").

Understandable symbolism, is not it? It is clear - and it was not possible until recently in the Kemal Ataturk reforms of Turkey, which was significantly changed at the time ...

Today it looks quite organic for Turkey. By “clearing” the military leadership from opponents of Islamism, even moderate, who is professed by the ruling Justice and Development Party, having guaranteed itself with a high barrier (10%) a single-party majority in parliament, breaking its allied relations with Israel, the Erdogan government seemed to abandon the European integration in favor of turning their country into a regional superpower, the leader of the Arab world and the adjacent Islamic countries. In the context of this, in mid-September Erdogan made a tour of the states that had just dropped despotic regimes - Tunisia, Libya and Egypt - and delivered a keynote speech in Cairo at a meeting of the Arab League.

In this speech, he combined calls for renewal, democratization, changes in the Arab world in favor of the masses with harsh attacks on Israel and the United States, repeating his promises to resist Israel’s attempts to block the Gaza Strip from the sea and advocate immediate recognition of the Palestinian independence by the UN of the state.

It is not difficult to predict that after such recognition, military clashes at sea near the Gaza Strip will become inevitable: Palestine will consider the adjacent territorial waters as its own, Israel as its own, Turkey will send its warships there. Serious clashes at sea today are impossible without participation. aviation and missile forces. One has only to start - and to stop a large-scale war in the eastern Mediterranean will be impossible. Does Erdogan really think that he will get a victory in it? Or does it seem to him that the headless Turkish army will comply with any order to implement the claims of the state elite to become a regional superpower and the leader of the Islamic world?
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  1. Vadivak 23 September 2011 09: 00 New
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    Turkey threatens to “break all official contacts with the Syrian authorities. Erdogan said in connection with his brutal suppression of anti-government protests. Wagging his tail on September 21 at a meeting with Obama, how is it? Turkey loves the United States, albeit venal love, but loves and for the money will do everything that is required of it
    1. His
      His 23 September 2011 16: 14 New
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      Turkey is now in the form of a fledged eagle. Not yet an eagle but similar. The whole mass of the people is backward, ignorant. In order for the Islamists not to finally seize the military’s power, they need an idea, they decided to reanimate the Ottoman Empire. And her main enemy, as I recall, was Great Russia. Now the territory of the former Russian Empire is unattended (today's Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan), and this is the idea that came to life
      1. Marat
        Marat 24 September 2011 00: 00 New
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        As for Azerbaijan, the truth is almost one people with them

        And they can’t see Kazakhstan - believe the ideas of "brotherhood" with the Turks, we are very unpopular. Kazakhstan has been and will remain with Russia - this is a fact
      2. Marat
        Marat 24 September 2011 00: 01 New
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        As for Azerbaijan, the truth is almost one people with them

        And they can’t see Kazakhstan - believe the ideas of "brotherhood" with the Turks, we are very unpopular. Kazakhstan has been and will remain with Russia - this is a fact
  2. Banshee 23 September 2011 09: 05 New
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    It started ...
    In general, of course, Turkey’s plans look somewhat ambitious. Well, at least kill, do not pull the Turks at the superpower. Moreover, by such actions they are unlikely to gain allies. Tunisia, Libya and Egypt - this, of course, is good, but they are not yet up to waving swords. His problems above the roof. But Syria and Iran (which, I note, is close to Turkey) - this is still serious. While they have not yet revolutionized the Libyan model.

    So Islam is Islam, and tanks are tanks. More like a show off and a desire to grab one’s own in the general mess in the region.
    1. Uncle Sam
      Uncle Sam 23 September 2011 10: 04 New
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      Now it is important for Turkey to establish itself as the leader of the Islamic world, and all this noise is just noise. And then you can deal with Syria, just under the hype on its coast and borders, the forces will be deployed and ready.
    2. Sanzyro
      Sanzyro 23 September 2011 10: 49 New
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      The great past is haunting ... Raving the Ottoman Empire. On political maps, the Kuban is painted in its color, by the way ... In the place of the Minister of Defense, I would order the construction of a pair of military, floating furniture sets.
  3. подводник 23 September 2011 10: 13 New
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    I agree with Vadivak. But the Turks are more likely to install the host (USA) to build up passions in this region. Those who need to weaken the EU with its EURO (in order to win the dollar), and just make the Turks their instrument of pressure in this region. So anology add: Turkey-tail, USA-dog.
  4. Sergh
    Sergh 23 September 2011 10: 27 New
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    The Turkish beaches grunted, but the tourist revenues there are not small! Somehow, Islam really twists and turns. Well, if NATO barks at each other, then this is sugar for us!
  5. Professor 23 September 2011 11: 16 New
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    And events unfold further. On 17 of September, the Turkish side made two statements.

    The dog barks - the caravan goes.

    To be a superpower, you need to feed your vassals, and Turkey has no treasury for this.
    1. LESHA pancake
      LESHA pancake 23 September 2011 13: 33 New
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      TURKISH TO KEEP FUCKING KURDS AS WANTED AND THE SYRIANS TO MEAN THEIR OPPONENTS WITH THE FINGER DO NOT TOUCH THE WELL AT ALL.
      1. Dovmont
        Dovmont 23 September 2011 17: 36 New
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        The United States is behind Turkey, and not anyone is behind Syria. We have betrayed the Syrians to please the Pindos.
        1. Uncle Sam
          Uncle Sam 23 September 2011 21: 03 New
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          Behind Syria is Iran. And a blow to Syria is, first of all, a blow to Iran. And it must be extinguished, unpredictable, hostile to a non-Islamic cannibalistic regime.
          1. LESHA pancake
            LESHA pancake 24 September 2011 00: 14 New
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            And I THINK TO NEED TO EXTEND THE HUMAN-EATING REGIME IN THE USA. SYRIA AND IRAN WILL NOT BURN ANYONE. And the USA attacked YUGOSLAVIA, IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, LIBYA WHO FURTHER?
  6. DEfindER 23 September 2011 15: 40 New
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    You don’t see, everything is going according to plan, why should the Amers spend their money on the war with Syria, they will do it with the hands of the Turks, and the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the purest puppet of the West ... and there’s nothing to think is simple
  7. Dovmont
    Dovmont 23 September 2011 17: 55 New
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    Guys, World War III has already begun !!! Remember how the Second World War began, wrodeba far in the east from Japanese aggression to China, then the war crawled into Europe, in the form of a European dump in Spain. The war was not only hot, but also diplomatic cold (Anschluss of Austria, Czechoslovakia joining Germany and the Baltic states to the USSR), a series of minor military conflicts in Europe and Africa. It was then that the 2nd World War broke out so that the whole planet shuddered. A similar scenario, some forces began to play and now starting with the Maghreb countries
  8. SAVA555.IVANOV
    SAVA555.IVANOV 23 September 2011 22: 56 New
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    If Turkey has teamed up with some Mediterranean countries, at the southern border of the former USSR there ENEMY like China but two such enemies were impossible to win, rightly said TURKEY pretends to be proud of the United States pointer, even if we combine then we will be very hard, OPTION ONE to liquidate urgently Republican elite and UNIT. WE WESTERN DON'T ENEMIES WERE THEY WERE NOT CALLING FOR US
    1. Marat
      Marat 24 September 2011 00: 02 New
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      Sava completely agree with you!
  9. Max
    Max 24 September 2011 00: 43 New
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    In Turkey, the army is comparable to the German, i.e. approximately the 2nd strongest in NATO, after the American one. I would boldly include them in the top 5 strongest armies in the world, and it would be so hard for Israel to be with the Turks, even considering the latter have the most advanced weapons systems. But among the Jews, the submarine fleet is absent (even if something floats, it is incomparable with the Turks) the two-fleet as such is also weaker by a couple of orders of magnitude; tri- aviation is trite less, air superiority will be won by Turkey, with a creak, but it will also be the last - the Turks have superiority in economic support, because Bagache country. Plus, let's not forget that the Turks will have a whole area there. This will be a completely different war, rather than just Syria and Egypt ...
    1. Mr. Truth
      Mr. Truth 24 September 2011 01: 08 New
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      Israel will use nuclear weapons.
    2. Sergh
      Sergh 24 September 2011 09: 25 New
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      Yes, of course, you can debate, you can argue, or even sorrow, but still, the question is interesting!
      If in order, then judging by the comments of Sava555.ivanov (give him a good lover in life), he is discouraged by the Turkish unity with the North Africans. And who is “HU”, for example, Egypt, Libyan rebels, I’m not sure, but Iran (their plans), well, someone to consider Palestine as a force, let’s say a couple more small African states. Turkey itself did not conduct large-scale military operations for a long time (northern Iraq is a trifle), although it conducted some exercises with NATO. I agree, Turkey’s armament has accumulated, the corresponding planes (F-15, F-16) have gained, their eyes lit up in the developing theater of operations in North Africa, you won’t call it anything else, sit and be silent, they’ll say “coward”, Prigat in Lebanon , they won’t give, but they were late, so you need to create your own military crisis from which you can easily get out with mines. Here MAX also believes that the Turkish army is the second in NATO!
      Gentlemen, yes you are afraid of God, Russia, the USA, England, France have been fighting without interruption since the 50s.
      Turkey would have moved for a long time to Azerbaijan, it would not have been a heap here. Although they looked at the conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia, where Russia has squeezed in, there are at least a lot of negative points, but imagine if the conflict drags on and the Russians come to their senses in tactics, straighten out the situation, and that’s quite, they’ll tighten up, regroup, though belatedly, and the Turks know, Russian is either death or all pi # dec. The question is, who (Turk) will run into them, but they have very little money, they won’t hold out for a long time, well, it’s understandable that mercenaries are a force, but nobody wants to die under the shells of the new Tornado-S MLRS, although from myself I will say: Turks are not cheated to our soldier, everyone knows in the world. Russian in the war, it is-deleted-! Incidentally, though old already, I’ll go to the partisans.
      1. oper66
        oper66 24 September 2011 11: 31 New
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        It seems to me that there will not be a direct director of hostilities between Turkey and Israel, there is a great director of the events in the Middle East and everyone knows the United States. An imaginary military confrontation between NATO members and Israel is needed to enhance their influence and the possibility of justifying the invasion of Iran and Syria at the same time not giving Palestine sovereignty the drama has been written for a long time and the roles have been learned by the actors, only the spectators of Iran in Syria are prepared from the category of spectators to be involved in this scene as victims entering the Greek war with Turkey one of the ways out of the crisis - a war cure for the economic instability of the devastation in Europe will allow the states to strengthen again as the last 1945 g
    3. Professor 24 September 2011 15: 09 New
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      for the Jews, the submarine fleet is absent (even if something is floating, it is incomparable with the Turks)

      Quite even comparable, if not mistaken 4 vs 12 sub.

      the two-fleet as such is also weaker by a couple of orders of magnitude

      The surface fleet is weaker by one order of magnitude. But since the fighting will be conducted off the coast of Israel or Cyprus, the size of the fleet does not matter.

      three- aviation is trite less

      Well, here you are completely wrong. Israel has not only more aircraft, but their equipment is better. It’s not worth talking about the training of pilots. By the way, the Tsakhal Air Force trained for more than one year in Turkey, they know the area.

      But this is not the main thing. The Turkish army is known for its anti-Islamic positions and is not entirely sure that the war that has begun will not be used for another military coup.
      NATO is a paper tiger that scared us in childhood. Can you imagine, for example, Finnish or Estonian soldiers side by side with the Turks fighting with Israel for Erduan’s whim?
      1. Professor 25 September 2011 16: 40 New
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        Here's a great article on the topic:
        http://www.lenta.ru/conf/satanovskiy/
    4. Insurgent
      Insurgent 24 September 2011 18: 24 New
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      I would delay the conclusions of 500 f-15 and f16 fighter jets in Israel, and the submarine fleet is smaller but better than cruise missiles with a range of 1500 km, and not only Israel will dress in Israel, Greece will also be drawn in
      1. Tyumen
        Tyumen 24 September 2011 21: 18 New
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        Im Germany is building submarines.
  10. Sergh
    Sergh 24 September 2011 09: 40 New
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    Admin, please forgive the harshness!