Contours of updating the strategic potential of the West
In the 2025 – 2040 years, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France have expired on the life of most of the currently existing carriers and means of delivery for strategic nuclear forces. The preparation of the replacement of such systems begins in 10 – 20 years before their introduction into service. Thus, the second decade of the new century becomes the time for making decisions on financing the construction of new strategic nuclear weapons.TRIADS, DIADS AND MONADES
At present, the strategic nuclear forces (SNF) are represented by the United States as a triad, among France as a dyad, and as against Great Britain as a monad.
Marine, land and aviation The components of the United States strategic nuclear forces triad are: nuclear-powered missile submarines (SSBNs) carrying intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (SLBMs); ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs); B-52 heavy bombers with air-based cruise missiles (ALCMs) equipped with nuclear warheads and B-2 bombers with nuclear aerial bombs (previously the B-1 heavy bombers were removed from the triad’s aviation component, which were discontinued in 1997 nuclear missions, and their nuclear aerial bombs were withdrawn from service in 2003).
The French Syad dyad consists of a maritime component (SSBN with an SLBM) and an aviation component consisting of the F2000 Mirage 3N and Rafale fighter-bomber capable of deploying ASMP-A nuclear warheads. Previously, France had a ground component in the form of medium-range ballistic missiles. The monad of the strategic nuclear forces of Great Britain are SSBNs, which have long since supplanted the aviation component, consisting of medium bomber aircraft.
The main component of the strategic nuclear forces in the United States and France and the only one in the UK are SSBNs with SLBMs, which carry the majority, almost all or all of the deployed nuclear warheads (YABZ) of the country. Being at sea on patrols of SSBNs of these states were and will remain invulnerable to the anti-submarine forces of their opponents, at least until the 50 of our century. Therefore, maintaining the present and future existence of this component of the SNF of Western countries is a primary task for them to ensure strategic nuclear deterrence with intimidation and defense of vital interests.
OHIO READY A REPLACEMENT
Let's start with the American strategic underwater missile carriers of the Ohio type, which are in the prime of their lives.
The first four of the 18 built SSBNs went into service in 1981 – 1984 and began patrolling in 1982 – 1984. They were originally designed for 20 – 25 years of service, then life expectancy was extended to 30 years. Congress opposed the proposal of the Navy to remove them from armament, as a result of these four SSBNs in 2002 – 2008 underwent a major overhaul with the replacement of the reactor core and were converted into carriers of sea-based cruise missiles in conventional equipment and special operations forces. In 2004, their lifespan was extended to 42 years. They began to patrol in the new quality in 2007 – 2009. Completion of operation of the first four Ohio-type submarines is expected somewhere in 2023 – 2026.
The current 14 SSBNs of the Ohio type are part of fleet in 1984–1997 and began patrolling in 1985–1998 for 30 years of operation. However, already in 1999, their service life was extended by 40%. In 2010, the US Department of Defense Nuclear Review talked about considering reducing the number of SSBNs from 14 to 12 in 2015–2020, depending on the assessment of the future structure of the strategic nuclear forces and aging of existing SSBNs. By the way, the recent recognition of the existence of a “torn” patrol schedule (each lasting from 37 to 140 days), explained by the operational necessity or the requirement to increase the invulnerability of SSBNs, may be a sign of problems with aging that have begun. But judging by the plans announced in 2014, there will be no decrease in the number of SSBNs, and all 14 SSBNs are to be withdrawn from the fleet in 2027–2040. It is possible that by that time, in 42 years, these submarines would carry out 126 patrols each (for comparison: the first current second-generation SSBN in 28 years completed only 80 patrols, that is, went on 120 patrols in 42 years; the first generation SSBN carried out an average of 69 and a maximum of 87 patrols).
Under current Navy plans, the new 12 SSBNs of the Iowa type will begin patrolling in the 2031 – 2042 years. In 2030 – 2040, the fleet will be forced to manage only 10 SSBNs, this circumstance prompted some public organizations to consider it sufficient to have and require the construction of only 10 and even eight new SSBNs. The management of the Navy, declaring the need for a debate on the existence of the triad, has achieved the creation of a separate fund to ensure the construction of new SSBNs (there is no money in the account of this fund yet), and the submariners immediately stated that they need at least 12 new SSBNs. Returning from the future to the present, we see that in our century, the planned dates for the start of construction of new SSBNs have already changed several times with a time separation of several years (2017 – 2021 years). Similarly, the idea of the required number of SSBNs also changed. Let's see what decision the next, already republican administration will make.
At the turn of 2025 – 2030, it is planned to create a new air-based cruise missile to replace the AGM-86.
Photos from www.af.mil
Photos from www.af.mil
What is the new American SSBN? The Americans refused to unify the fleet of multi-purpose nuclear submarines and nuclear submarines with SLBMs based on the Virginia-type submarine and made a bet on improving the tested design of the Ohio-class SSBNs. The new SSBN will become less noticeable due to the reduction of its noise due to the introduction of full electric propulsion, the use of jet propulsion and a new hull cover. It will be better to hear and see thanks to a more advanced hydroacoustic complex and new cutting equipment. It will be safer due to the use of X-shaped feed rudders. New SSBNs will be less time to be repaired as a result of the use of more advanced onboard equipment and the installation of new reactors, designed to work without reloading the core during 42 years of life of each ship. The latter circumstance will ensure the presence on patrol in the presence of 12 new SSBNs of the same number of submarines as now, when there are 14 of Ohio-type missile carriers.
The main difference between the new SSBN and the existing one will be the reduction in the number of SLBM launchers from 24 to 16. This is equivalent to reducing the maximum possible nuclear ammunition on each SSBN (including return capacity) from the previous 192 and future 160 nuclear warheads on the second generation boat to 128 YABZ on the third generation boat. But if the new SSBN begins to have such a nuclear ammunition set on patrol as each SSBN now has (around 100 nuclear warheads), then this will mean that the existing nuclear potential in the quantitative composition remains in the sea, albeit in a modified configuration.
THIRD GENERAL IN BRITISH AND IN FRENCH
The UK has been working with third-generation SSBNs from 2007 on the development of the required composition of its nuclear forces in the 60 years of this century, taking into account the experience of creating and operating such ships.
The four first-generation SSBNs that performed the task of strategic nuclear deterrence in 1968 – 1996 performed during this time, each on average 57 patrols (maximum 61) with an average 2,3 pace patrolling per year. As a Western analyst pointed out, in the 25 year of service, these SSBNs began to fall apart before our eyes. The next generation SSBNs were designed for 30 years of service. Four submarines were transferred to the fleet in 1993 – 1999 and began their mission in 1994, 1996, 1998 and 2001. By April 2013, they completed 100 patrols with an average rate of 1,6 patrols per year for one SSBN (one at sea, two in base, one in repair). With such a sparing use of these ships, it would have been thought that in the 30 years each SSBN would have performed the 48, and in the 35 years the 56 patrols. But in the UK they began to say that withdrawal of SSBNs from the fleet should start with 2022 – 2023, and the entry of the first SSBN of the third generation into the fleet should be assigned to 2024 year (later the entry date was moved to 2028 year).
The British seemed to see that it was not rational to keep four SSBNs for patrolling, that only 16 – 10 SLBMs should be loaded with ballast in the 12 launchers of each SSBN, and the ship with a displacement of 14 thousand tons for the ammunition in XNUM was –40 YABZ - uneconomical. It seems that they recalled a proposal made in 48 in the USA to build a SSBN of 1992 – 8200 with a displacement of eight launchers for launching Trident-10700 SLBMs. And already in 2, an official statement follows that the new English SSBN will be equipped with only eight launchers and will carry the 2010 YABZ. It also appeared that the new reactor for SSBNs would be guaranteed to work without recharging the 40 core for years (if necessary, its use could be extended to 25 for years) and that three such reactors would be ordered for the time being. Everything about the third generation of English SSBNs will probably be known in 30, when the first construction contracts will be signed. It is likely that the first third-generation SSBN will begin patrolling in 2016, becoming this time a model for meeting the “cost-effectiveness” criterion.
France, from 2014, has begun preparations for the creation of a third-generation SSBN that will replace SSBNs introduced into the fleet in 1996, 1999, 2004 and 2010. If six SSBNs of the first generation served, counting from the first to the last patrol, an average of one SSBN in 22 of the year (Terribl performed 23 patrols for 66 of the year), then the SSGN of the second generation were built on guaranteed 25 years of service with the possibility of extending this period by five years. The French’s use of the same gentle patrolling regime used by the British (one SSBN at sea, two in base, one under repair) suggests that the service life of the first two SSBNs of the second generation will be not 25, but 30 years. And this will require the commissioning of the first SSBN of a new generation no later than 2029 of the year.
MAIN WEAPONS ROCKET INNOVATORS
SLBMs are the main SSBN’s weapon intended for the delivery of means of destruction - nuclear warheads. American Trident-2-type SLBMs patrolled from the US SSBN by the 1990, and the US SSBN by the 1994, will be in service, according to existing reports, by the 2042.
What is behind this wording?
If in 2042, this rocket will be decommissioned, then it should already be replaced by its successor, the new SLBM, by this time. As the past shows, the first Trident-2 missiles entered the fleet nine years later, and the delivery of the first 200 missiles ended 12 years after the development of this SLBM began. Consequently, work on the creation of a new SLBM can be started in the 2030 year in order to complete the rearmament of the USS and Submarines in the US and the UK to the new SLBMs in the 2042 year.
In 1987 – 2012, for the USA and the UK, the 591 SLBM Trident 2 was purchased with the service life increased from the original 25 to 30 years. The upgraded Trident-2 long-life missiles will begin to flow into the fleet from the 2017 year. Americans from 2015 of the year, and the British from 2000 of the year embarked on austerity of the SLBM by reducing the use of missiles for training launches. Given the impending reduction in the number of SLBMs on each SSBN (in the US to 20 and later on 16, and in the UK to eight), limiting missile expenditure on training launches and reducing the stock of missiles as a result of their aging, each 2042 combat-ready SSBN full ammunition SLBM.
New French SLBM M51 come into service SSBNs with 2010 year. It is possible that, following the example of the British, who purchased 58 Trident-2 missiles, no more than 58 M51 missiles of two modifications will be purchased. Each SLBM of these three countries carries from one to six or eight YABZs. The monoblock SLBM of Great Britain with YABZ with a capacity of 10 – 15 kt is destined for substrate application. France’s one-piece SLBMs are designed to destroy remote targets and create an electromagnetic pulse over enemy territory.
The Americans had previously and the possibility of undermining only one YABZ from several on multiple-charged SLBMs. The upgraded Mk-2008A / W4-76 warheads from 1 have been extended to 60 years with a nuclear warhead for the Trident 2 submarines and the new YABZ TNO expected for XBMPS XXXX90 The British will begin creating new YABZ for SLBMs in the 2015s. Judging by media reports from 51, the French intended in the second decade to equip their ALCMs and SLBMs with nuclear warheads of variable explosion power.
RESISTANT "MINITMEN"
The “Minuteman-3” ICBM, judging by the official statements of the US military-political leadership, will be in service until the 2030 year. This is ensured by upgrading at least 607 rockets. For the period of 2025 – 2075, either a continuous modernization of the Minuteman-3 rocket or a new stationary, mobile or tunnel ICBM is required. From media reports it appears that the possibility of creating approximately 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles of mines, soil or railway basing is being considered. But such a turn of events cannot be ruled out, when the United States abandons ICBMs to reduce the number of stationary nuclear military facilities of the strategic nuclear forces located on their territory from several hundred to one dozen and secure a more advantageous position in the policy of targeting strategic facilities. Such a proposal for the elimination of ICBMs to the 2022 year was put forward in the USA as recently as the 2012 year.
Dual-purpose airplanes (heavy bombers and fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons) are, in contrast to SLBMs and ICBMs, a reusable means of use.
In France, by 2018 a year or later, the re-equipment of the SNF aviation to the Rafale F3 fighters, which, from 2009, have been carrying ASMP-A missiles, will be completed. Since approximately ASMP-A missiles expire in 2035 year, the development of a new aviation cruise missile in nuclear equipment (ASN2014G) began in 4, which will combine low-visibility with speed in M = 7-8. Depending on the size of the new missile and the possibility of placing one or more of these missiles on one plane, you will have to choose between creating a new fighter or even a bomber for it. Killing debates on the need to transform a nuclear dyad into a nuclear monad promises longevity for the aviation component of the French SNF.
In the United States and Western Europe, the American F-35A fighter, designed to replace the F-16 and Tornado fighters in NATO as carriers of non-strategic nuclear weapons, will acquire this quality from 2021 onwards, receiving the B61-12 high-precision nuclear aerial bomb.
New nuclear warheads should significantly increase the capabilities of the French M51 type SLBMs.
Photo from www.defense.gouv.fr
Photo from www.defense.gouv.fr
THE DIFFICULT DESTINY OF THE BOMBERS
In the United States, the solution to the problem of upgrading bomber aircraft was accompanied by "strategic agony." If in the 2001 year, the Nuclear Survey of the Ministry of Defense referred to the need for a new bomber for the 2040 year, then after a few years the task was to equip them with bomber aircraft for five years already in 2015 – 2020. As alternatives, the creation of subtle subsonic or supersonic bombers was considered (for example, medium-range 275 vehicles or long-range 150).
It came to be understood that in the age of high-precision weapons there is no need for a bomber capable of carrying 27 and payloads, like B-52, or 60 t, like B-1. The idea arose to build no longer distant, but “regional” (“intermediate”) bombers. Earlier, a proposal was made to isolate bomber aviation from the strategic nuclear triad and assign it to the delivery of only non-strategic nuclear weapons. This would mean that with the commissioning of new regional bombers, the task of creating non-strategic nuclear forces of the USA (bombers and dual-purpose fighters), which would substantially complement non-strategic nuclear forces of NATO (dual-purpose fighters and SLBMs in a sub-strategic role), was tackled. Because of its vagueness, this program was closed in 2009, so that next year it would be declared a priority and later plan the arrival of the first aircraft of the new generation in combat units in 2024 for the use of conventional weapons, and from 2026 of the year - nuclear weapons.
Currently, the United States is officially in the ranks of 155 heavy bombers (TB), in addition there are several dozen TB in storage, in conservation and for testing. In 2014, it became known that the reduction of the TB fleet would start from the 2022 year.
Recall that the B-52 entered service in 1961 – 1962, it is designed for 5 thousand take-off / landing. The glider of the aircraft allows you to have a flight in 32500 – 37500 hours; today, more than half of this resource has been used, so that the aircraft could serve the 2044 year. The B-1 supersonic heavy bomber entered service in 1985 – 1988, designed for 30 years of service, and used about half of this resource for at least 15200 flying hours. The inconspicuous B-2 is in combat units from 1993 – 1998, it could serve up to 60 years with a raid of up to 40 in thousands of hours, the first aircraft only recently scored 7 in thousands of hours of flight. Subject to entering 2024 – 2044 for the 80 – 100 new bomber, all B-1 and B-52 aircraft will be retired by 2040, and the B-2 bomber will survive, if it does not exceed the intended level of accidents, to the middle of 40-X yo
Judging by the 2010 requirements of the year published by the media, the 6,3 – 12,7 m payload, the 7400 – 9200 km range and the 3600 – 4000 km combat radius (without refueling) and be in the air with 50 – 100 refueling hours These requirements are close to the characteristics of the B-47E medium bomber, which entered service in 1953 – 1957 years (payload 11,3 t, maximum take-off weight 104 t, combat radius without refueling in the air 3800 km, kept in the air with refueling 48 – XNUM ch ch . If we summarize everything said in the past for the media and in the media, then the new aircraft will probably become long-range (“with long range”) subsonic (“locking on”, that is, with a long duration of flight) barely noticeable and cost-effective dual-purpose bomber with a missile and bomb weapons. Official data on the capabilities of the new bomber promise to report in April 80. A new air-based cruise missile with nuclear and conventional equipment will be created for it in 2015 – 2025, which will replace AGM-2030 missiles (the new ALCM will also be armed with B-86 and B-52 bombers). Until that time, the comfortable existence of the B-2 fleet would be provided over 52 with modernized ALCM-type AGM-350B. It is believed that with the 86, only one type of aircraft carrier (B2030-61) will remain in service with the US Air Force.
As can be seen, the US Air Force in 2025 – 2035 will have a fleet of four types of bombers. This is either a miscalculation as a result of the abandonment of the B-2 large series of bombers and the overly optimistic hopes of the B-1 heavy bombers, or a prediction of the need for four types of bombers for this period.
As for the nuclear weapons of the Western countries, it will be reduced by the US Armed Forces to 2022 year to 3000 – 3500 nuclear warheads (according to 2011 year) and to 2030 year to 2000 – 2200 nuclear warheads (according to 2005 – 2006 years), whereas Sun UK to 2025, it will be reduced to 180 YABZ. France in the third or fourth decade may retain its current quantitative level of nuclear warheads (“less than 300 YABZ”).
It should be emphasized that in this way new US / NATO dual-purpose fighters will become carriers of new, already high-precision nuclear bombs not earlier than 2021 of the year. It is not excluded that the new US intercontinental ballistic missiles will begin combat duty somewhere in the 2025 – 2030 years. It is likely that the new US bombers from 2026 will gain the ability to carry nuclear weapons, including new cruise missiles. New submarine strategic missile carriers of the United States, Great Britain and France will be on patrol no later than 2029 – 2031.
Obsolescence of carriers and means of delivery of nuclear weapons is inevitable and to a certain extent predictable. However, the specific timing of their replacement may vary by the leadership of countries depending on political bias or financial considerations. In the fog of the future, the contours of the renewal of the basis of the nuclear power of the West — naval strategic nuclear forces — are best guessed.
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