I would choose the moon
January was rich in events in the Russian rocket and space industry. It became known that our aerospace defense lost its last “Oka”. Rather, two - the remaining satellites of the Oko-1 system (missile attack early warning systems) have failed. True, everything went to that - lately they could work only a few hours a day. The launch of the first satellite of the Unified Space System (CEN) "Tundra" - it will replace the "Oka" - will take place no earlier than June, and CEN "Tundra" should be fully earned in the 2016 year. The defense ministry assures that the temporary loss of the space warning system for rocket attacks will not affect the country's defense capability, since the space train reacted to the launch of missiles towards Russia only one minute earlier than the over-the-horizon radar system, but worked in the US only 12 hours a day, and launches from the world ocean were not able to track, that is, it was not the main, but an auxiliary mechanism for notifying a nuclear missile attack. So all, if I may say so, the missile-prone areas remain under complete control.The new CEN of the Tundra should become much more functional, not only making the observation of rocket launches permanent and almost comprehensive, but also allowing you to control the parameters of the retaliatory strike.
To be fair, I must say that the launch of the Tundra program from the Plesetsk cosmodrome was planned in 2013 year. However, the dates were postponed several times. At the same time, the main reason for the delay was the technical unavailability of the device. Now the situation with the "Tundra" is under the personal control of Sergei Shoigu, who regularly report on the progress of work. This practice has been successful in the case of the long-suffering "Bulava" - let's hope it works with the "Tundra".
A new milestone in the many years of reforming the domestic space industry was the decision to establish the Roscosmos State Corporation. For many, let's face it, an unexpected turn. What, therefore, should we expect, what turn of events should we prepare for, what prospects can there be, including distant ones? Let's try to understand this issue with the help of a reputable expert.
"TOMORROW". Alexander Borisovich, the end of January was marked by the beginning of a large-scale reform of the rocket and space industry - Roskosmos and the United Rocket and Space Corporation were integrated. How far can this decision be called predictable and consistent in the light of events occurring in the industry in recent years?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. The proposal to establish the Roscosmos state corporation was first announced back in 2013, when various options for the reform of the rocket and space industry were being considered. Therefore, it is not necessary to talk about the novelty of the decision adopted in January.
At the same time, the creation of the renewed Roscosmos was a very unexpected event. Few people thought that would happen. For example, the former head of the Federal Space Agency, Oleg Ostapenko, at the time when the fate of the industry was being decided, was on a working trip to St. Petersburg and did not even expect that he would return to Moscow with the prefix "ex".
"TOMORROW". Are the sanctions and recent events in Ukraine related to the creation of the state space corporation?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. Have Moreover, the most immediate. Perhaps in a different political situation, the decision could be different.
In my opinion, a state corporation is not the best form of business. It is effective only in a crisis situation when it is necessary to mobilize resources to solve a specific task. Most often related to issues of national security. This, to a certain extent, is happening today.
However, in the long run, a state corporation is unlikely to be able to ensure the development of the industry at the pace and to the extent necessary for scientific and technological progress.
Astronautics is a “redundant” activity of humanity, directed to the future. This must be remembered. We work for future generations. Therefore, many of the criteria relevant to other industries in the rocket and space industry are simply unacceptable.
"TOMORROW". Many people are concerned that Igor Komarov, who worked in the banking system, in the structures of Russian Technologies and at AvtoVAZ, is a figure unrelated to the rocket and space industry. Naturally, he brought with him "outsiders" people. There is a replacement of key figures (and I think that in the near future we will see many more new faces among the leaders of various ranks), periodically make statements about future reductions and the replacement of older employees with young personnel. Will we literally witness tomorrow the situation when the industry management system is destroyed, and the shortage of highly professional and, most importantly, experienced personnel will be even more acute?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. There are such concerns. And they are not unreasonable. I do not doubt the competence of Mr. Komarov as a manager, financier and economist. However, the rocket and space industry is so specific that it is at least not logical to approach its leadership with common standards. And in order to know this specifics, it takes time. Moreover, neither a year nor two.
I would very much like the reform of the industry to be successful. With the people who are doing it now, or with others. The main thing that the result was.
Regarding the reduction of personnel question is controversial. It is possible that in some enterprises, in some structures, it is necessary to do this. But it is impossible to approach this issue indiscriminately. You can not all cut with the same comb and give the figures for the upcoming cuts. Where it is necessary and possible, it is necessary to reduce. Where the affair will suffer, this cannot be done in any way.
As for the rejuvenation of personnel ... In this issue, a balanced approach is also needed. And here the main criteria should be the expediency and necessity.
"TOMORROW". At a critical time, decision making is fairly easy. The future of the Russian space industry depends on what these decisions will be. How real are the fears that our space program can go the "wrong" way?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. Russian cosmonautics has been looking for its way for quite a long time. At least the last ten years, there are such searches, but no output has yet been found. "Shit", which we have seen in the last two or three years, does not work for the benefit. Therefore, the probability of choosing the "wrong path of development" is very high. Especially in light of the geopolitical situation that is currently taking shape.
Nevertheless, I continue to believe that the "right" way will be found. The only thing I would like to do is succeeded with "little blood".
"TOMORROW". In your opinion, this new reform provides an answer to the question - what will happen next with the rocket and space industry?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. Unfortunately, it does not. Everything that we have heard so far from the lips of the leaders of the renewed Roskosmos, while it is purely declarative in nature, is “deepened and expanded.” Nothing specific.
Something can be clarified by the Federal Space Program for the 2016-2025 years, which is planned to be adopted this year. But this document cannot be considered the "industry exit program from the crisis."
Something concrete can be said in a couple of years, when the Roscosmos state corporation will start working (unless, of course, new structural transformations occur), and the main directions of the industry’s development will be formulated. So far, the future of Russian cosmonautics does not look as optimistic as we would like.
"TOMORROW". One of the main concerns expressed by the experts is whether the new corporation, in which the main criterion for evaluating the effectiveness, most likely will be financial indicators, does not give up research and manned cosmonautics.
Alexander Zheleznyakov. Completely from manned space flight, from scientific projects, of course, no one will never give up. But how much priority these directions will be in the plans of the new leadership of Roscosmos is a big question. It is possible that their funding will be significantly reduced. Especially if these projects will be implemented without international participation.
"TOMORROW". What will happen to the new Federal space program, which was usually formed for a ten-year period? And will it be at all, because the mechanism for financing state corporations differs from that of the federal agency?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. The federal space program will be required. Even the state corporation will not be able to do without it with all its “financing mechanisms”. The question is what will be included in it.
It seems to me that it would be most appropriate to include in the program some large-scale goal that can consolidate the industry and move scientific and technical progress forward. The project, which was considered last year, did not have such a goal; there were many small goals that can hardly be called such. Let's see what will be offered in the new year.
"TOMORROW". And what could be the role of such a large-scale idea: a flight to the Moon, to Mars, to a libration point, landing on an asteroid or something else?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. Despite the attractiveness of the idea of a flight to Mars and asteroids, I would choose the moon.
Firstly, it will be much cheaper than the Martian expedition.
Secondly, the implementation of this project will require much less time.
Thirdly, the Moon can become a kind of “jump airfield” for long-distance interplanetary travel.
And finally, psychologically, this will be perceived much better than landing on Mars. We will look at the Moon, and we will be warming our souls with the realization that our compatriots are now on its surface.
Yes, and to witness this accomplishment will be able to those who at the end of 1960's were disappointed by the fact that there were Americans on the Moon, not us.
A technical groundwork on the moon can give impetus to the overall development of science and technology. What is very important for us today.
"TOMORROW". Who will now develop a development strategy? Are economists successful managers or, after all, engineers — intelligent specialists in the field of rocket production?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. Both managers and specialists will develop. But I’m afraid that engineers will have no relation to decision making.
"TOMORROW". Will this moment have negative consequences for the document itself and the future of the industry?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. I'm afraid so. Although I hope for the sanity of those who will put a final signature on these documents.
"TOMORROW". By what criteria will orders be distributed now? In all countries of the world, including China, which is so much loved by Russian officials, customers in the space industry are separated from performers. We will have them in one person.
Alexander Zheleznyakov. When the United Rocket and Space Corporation (ORKK), separated from the Federal Space Agency, was created, one of the reasons for the then decision was precisely the need to separate the functions of the customer (and quality controller) and the contractor. And it was the right decision. Although the creation of an artist as an industrial "monster" even then seemed to me a very controversial decision.
Now we get both the performer and the customer in one person. Taking into account the fact that the activity of state corporations is not transparent by itself, we can not only not solve the existing problems, but also generate new ones.
In my opinion, it would be more appropriate to allow the ORKK - agency to work for a year or two and only then make decisions.
"TOMORROW". When this very bundle of which you speak appeared, everything in it was extremely clear. In this scheme, there was a state that performed the role of the customer, the industry acted as the performer. The Federal Space Agency was completely freed from business functions. He was left only the definition of the rules of the game in the industry, the goals and objectives of development, the formation of state orders. Roscosmos was a customer, and the entire industry was going to the United Rocket-Building Corporation, where more than forty enterprises were to enter. What now? What role will the state play?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. The state, as before, will play the role of a general customer and financier. True, the chain of implementation of these tasks is changing.
I do not think that the optimal variant of this "chain" has been chosen. State monopoly can work effectively only in extraordinary conditions. That is, only in the short term. If we talk about the long term, then with a change in the economic situation or the international situation, we can get a new crisis in the rocket and space industry, which will have to be solved by other methods. That is, again to engage in reform.
"TOMORROW". It turns out that competition is completely removed from the industry, and therefore it will not be necessary to talk about increasing productivity, reducing costs, reducing costs in the near future?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. The "external" competition disappears when various enterprises apply for an order, which provide various options for the competition. Remains "internal" competition between structural units. Of course, such competition is less effective than "external". And in the long run, when it is necessary to compete only with "foreign analogues", such an approach can adversely affect the scientific and technical potential of the industry.
With increasing productivity, the question is complicated. Unambiguous connection with the competition is not here. Although it is much more difficult to increase productivity in the absence of competition than if it is present.
Cost reductions — as well as cost cutting — can be achieved. But not at the expense of changing the range and quality of products. Otherwise, this issue is not resolved.
"TOMORROW". The head of Roskosmos, Igor Komarov, said that in the near future, representatives of the Roskosmos state corporation being set up will consult with their colleagues from Rosatom state corporation. How correct is the comparison of the new Roscosmos with Rosatom? What do they have in common?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. The only thing common to both the nuclear and the rocket and space industries is that both of them are "on the cutting edge of scientific and technological progress." No matter how pathetic it sounds. Everything else in the industries is so specific and so different from each other that it is simply impossible to find common solutions for them. Therefore, we are talking only about consultations, but not about transferring the structure of Rosatom to Roskosmos.
"TOMORROW". Grigory Khvorostyanov, head of the Ordinary Reconstruction Coordination Center, recently announced that the funding of the space industry was cut by ten percent this year. According to him, this will “seriously worsen the economic situation of enterprises” and will lead to an increase in their credit mortgages. At the same time, he called the plan to unite Roscosmos and ORKK and create a state-owned corporation on their basis as a “political decision”. In your opinion, can this step to some extent help enterprises survive? Or, on the contrary, will ruin the industry?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. The reduction in funding for the industry is not surprising. In the current economic crisis, when the state has to cut spending, reducing cash flow to the rocket and space industry is a necessity. In no way can we say that the government has changed its priorities so drastically and no longer needs astronautics. This is not true. It’s just that global problems in the Russian economy will not be resolved, there’s no hope of a “rich cash flow”.
Will the industry stand or fall apart? I think that will survive in any case. Stand in the same dashing 90-e. And today will stand, despite all the organizational shake-ups and financial constraints.
"TOMORROW". What is the "threat" of this reform of the space industry in the long term?
Alexander Zheleznyakov. I have already said that I am not particularly optimistic about the changes taking place. It seems to me that in a few years we will be experiencing another round of reform of the rocket and space industry. In what form, I am afraid even to assume.
Still, I hope for the best. More than half a century ago, humanity broke out into the open spaces of the Universe, and it is unlikely that it will want to go back. In the very nature of man lives the need to expand the range of its habitat. And if so, we have only one way - forward, to the stars!
Information