Dmitry Semushin. Hungary is waiting for the autonomy of the Hungarians from Ukraine, Warsaw is not waiting for anything
Viktor Orban reminded the Poles how Hungary helped Poland in 1939
3 February 2015 was visited by German Chancellor Angela Merkel on a working visit to Hungary. Ten days later, 13 February 2015 of the year, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban went to Kiev, where he met with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. After a few more days, February 17 2015 of the year, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a working visit to Hungary. In Budapest, Prime Minister Orban negotiated with the German Chancellor and the President of the Russian Federation. Two days after meeting with the Russian president, the Hungarian prime minister went on an official visit to Poland. Thus, within three weeks of one month, the Hungarian prime minister worked at the highest level on the main lines of Hungary’s current foreign policy in Europe: in the West with Germany, in the East with Ukraine and Russia, and in the Central European region with the informal leader of the Visegrad Group ( V4), which includes Hungary, - Poland. The diplomatic activity of the Hungarian prime minister in the aforementioned “quadrilateral” is of particular importance, since it takes place in an atmosphere of growing conflict between the West and Russia because of events in Ukraine.
Orban’s visit to Warsaw turned out to be remarkable for the criticism faced by the Hungarian prime minister from the Poles because of his relations with Russia. At the same time, the Poles, in the spirit of the last year’s rhetoric, personify Hungarian-Russian relations with the personality of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In Warsaw, a deep geopolitical conflict is persistently portrayed purely in a personalistic way. Obviously, the logic of this understanding made Orban alter ego of Putin. The conservative Polish edition Gosc Niedzielny even stated the end of “orbanomania” in Poland, thanks to the general hatred for Putin there.
Nevertheless, the editor of the Polish edition of Rzeczpospolita, Jerzy Haczynski, nevertheless acknowledged that during the visit, the Polish side “undiplomatically” behaved towards the Hungarian Prime Minister and “may have competed to demonstrate who [in Europe] is most of all disappointed in Viktor Orban. ” More seriously, Rzeczpospolita stated that after Putin’s visit to Budapest it became clear that there is a difference of opinion between the governments of Hungary and Poland regarding the problem of relations with Russia. In Warsaw, Orban tried to convince the Polish audience that Europe needs Russian gas because of high energy prices and a deterioration in the overall competitiveness of the European economy. However, according to Rzeczpospolita, it is practically very difficult to convince Poland of the validity of such an argument. Military policy is gaining more and more of the peaceful economy in Warsaw. Nevertheless, despite personal disappointments, Orban in Warsaw really fulfilled the expectations of the Polish side, when, according to Rzeczpospolita, he promised that he would not interfere with future European Union sanctions against Russia. "The promise of the Prime Minister of Hungary that he will not veto the expansion of sanctions, a good farewell gift for the deceived and faithful." The term “deceived and loyal” obviously means, after Minsk-2, the nationalist leadership in Kiev.
It should be noted that the dissatisfaction of Warsaw in Hungary itself in the days following Thursday was taken quite calmly. Obviously, the Warsaw episode clearly demonstrated the difference in the temperaments of the Poles and the Hungarians. In contrast to the noisy Polish romance, the Hungarians show their famous famous composure. Outwardly, it is very difficult to exorcise them with such trifles as Warsaw verbal tricks.
The parliamentary and non-parliamentary opposition in Hungary, of course, stated the next foreign policy "failure" of the authoritarian Hungarian prime minister. But this is rather the usual "work" of the opposition than its serious position. Hungary's main opposition party - the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) was rather restrained in criticism. Again, she once again noted that the country's foreign policy does not serve the interests of Hungary. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary in the socialist office Laszlo Kovacs called the diplomatic movements of Victor Orban between Berlin, Moscow and Warsaw another tour of the "peacock dance" or the continuation of the usual Orban "swing policy". The Hungarian Liberal Party (MLP), which has no political influence in the country, directly stated that it was a serious political mistake of Orban immediately after Putin’s visit to go to Warsaw. Obviously, according to the logic of the Hungarian liberals, the Hungarian prime minister should have taken a pause, and it’s better not to go anywhere after Putin’s handshake. By and large, Orban, in the opinion of the Hungarian liberals, demonstrates that Hungary is an unreliable ally in the system of the European Union and NATO. In addition, Hungary, according to MLP, was humiliated due to the fact that the chairman of the main opposition party in Poland - PiS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, "did not accept" Orban. However, the office of the Hungarian prime minister said that during his visit to Warsaw, Viktor Orban did not plan any meetings with the leader of the Polish opposition party. Orban did not care about Kaczynski. The personalistic criticism of Orban in Warsaw, Hungary, was symmetrically duplicated to Kaczynski. It turns out that the latter does not understand pragmatism in politics and is completely captured by the irrational mournful memories of his brother, who died in the Smolensk plane crash.
However, the Warsaw round revealed not only disagreements between Hungary and Poland regarding the policy towards Russia. The Warsaw visit of Orban showed that Poland and Hungary see differently the prospects for the development of the crisis for Ukraine itself. Orban habitually assured the Poles in Warsaw that Hungary still adheres to the Polish-Hungarian friendship. Orban once again said: "Hungary and Poland always see themselves as freedom-loving peoples." However, as regards Ukraine, in the case of it, Orban said, Hungary welcomes the recent second agreement in Minsk. European unity, in the opinion of the Hungarian Prime Minister, should now take shape around Minsk-2. According to the Hungarian Prime Minister, this Minsk Agreement should be supported and protected. Heavy weapons must be set aside, and Ukraine must carry out constitutional reform, and the European Union must work to build a common economic space with Russia.
So, if Warsaw sees in Minsk pacification a forced act and a betrayal of the national interests of Ukraine, then Budapest is the political perspective of Minsk-2, including for itself. And it is this: a constitutional reform and an unpredictable aloud is a terrible word for Kiev - the actual national autonomy in Ukraine based on its results. Autonomy for Donbass opens the way for the Hungarian autonomy in Transcarpathia - this is the logic of the events of Minsk-2 in the understanding of Budapest. And here the official Warsaw, in fact, can have no complaints about Orbanovskiy Budapest. The policy of supporting Hungarian compatriots through the granting of dual citizenship to them and the policy of creating Hungarian autonomies was proclaimed by Orban as early as 2010. After that, the Hungarian Prime Minister twice expressed his willingness to become a junior partner in the Polish-Hungarian political bunch. The latter included, among other things, the recognition of Warsaw by the new national policy of Orbanovo Hungary. However, Orban did not meet with the government of the “Civic Platform” understanding and recognition of the new national policy of Hungary. Warsaw, instead of building relations with Orbanovsky Budapest, logical in terms of working in the Visegrad Group, preferred the special relations promoted by the United States with Romania. Such is the subtext of the situation when February 10, 19 in Warsaw, Polish Prime Minister Eva Kopacz turned to romantic stories common national struggle and suffering of the Hungarians and Poles in the nineteenth century. In response, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban discreetly reminded Kopach, and with her and the entire Polish establishment, a different history of mutual relations: “In such difficult times as during the Second World War, we Hungarians were allies of your enemies, but nonetheless found a way help the Poles. " Specifically, we are talking about September 1939, when Hungary occupied friendly neutrality towards Germany in the outbreak of the German-Polish war. The Hungarian border was opened for the defeated Polish armies for retreat, and the Hungarian territory for internment was opened. Hungary "helped" the Poles to capitulate. The last Orban calls ambiguously "help." Admiral Horty opposed the cold pragmatics and national interests of Hungary to the romance of Polish-Hungarian relations and centuries-old mutual sympathy for which he was rewarded by Hitler through Vienna Arbitration with half of Transylvania, and earlier with the partition of Czechoslovakia in March 1939 of the year - Transcarpathia.
February 19 2015, the Poles once again demonstrated their usual self-confident misunderstanding of the situation and specific Hungarian national interests. In the “historical lecture” Polka Copach for Hungarian Orban lacked one of the most important words for Hungarians - “Trianon”. That is why the historical discussion between Kopach and Orban on the content of the Hungarian-Polish friendship has taken on such a bizarre character. Anti-Romanian and anti-Ukrainian context is quite visible in the historical replica of Orban.
At a joint press conference in Warsaw on February 19, the Polish Prime Minister spoke about her talks with Orban: “An honest and difficult conversation took place, like friends out of habit, about relations between the European Union and Russia, Ukraine and the Visegrad countries. In this frank and difficult conversation, I told Mr. Prime Minister Orban that in the Ukrainian situation, the unity of the EU member states and the Visegrad countries is important. ” As it turned out, in Warsaw, they finally realized that in the face of the Ukrainian crisis, the unity of the Visegrad Group is currently under threat. Hungary, along with Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, is creating a group of countries in the EU dissatisfied with anti-Russian sanctions. Austria instead of Poland becomes the core of the Central European group. The Visegrad group in a similar guise takes on a clear Austrian list, giving rise to memories of the unity of the Habsburg Empire, instead of Jagiellonian Europe.
Further, attention should be paid to the fact that February 22 of the year February at a festive ceremony in Kiev demonstrating European support to Ukraine was attended by: European Council President Pole Donald Tusk, President of the Federal Republic of Germany Joachim Gauk, President of Poland Bronislaw Komorowski, President of the Slovak Republic Andrei Kiska and others. However, among the "others" there were no heads of state or government of the Czech Republic and Hungary. At one time, the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, through his participation in the summits of the Visegrad Group, stubbornly positioned Ukraine as an unofficial member of this Central European community. Now it’s obvious that for Kiev, the previous formula V2015 + 4 in February 1 does not work. The February episode in Warsaw, and then in Kiev, demonstrated that there is no unity of position of the Visegrad Group in Ukraine. Moreover, isolation of the leading member of the Visegrad Group, Poland, is determined by the Ukrainian direction. Poland, in its Eastern policy in the region, relies on a state that is not part of the Visegrad Group - Romania. In Romania, in turn, the Transylvanian interest in recent days has been cast in the fierce criticism of the “pro-Moscow course” of Orbanovo Hungary. True, the policy of Orban is understood among other member states of the Visegrad Group. The specific position is occupied by the Czech Republic. The leading Czech publication Lidové Noviny the other day, in a commentary on the Polish visit of the Hungarian prime minister, stated that Viktor Orban is trying to balance between Germany and Russia in order to accelerate the economic development of his country based on cheap energy from Russia and German advanced technologies. Lidové Noviny called Orban’s foreign policy course in the face of growing tensions between Russia and the EU a “risky strategy.” The Czech Republic itself, economically developed and more closely integrated with Germany, does not need to be balanced. But at least the Czechs do not hide the fact that they understand the logic of the activities of the Hungarian Prime Minister. And they are ready to agree with her. However, in Prague, the political course of Orban is viewed as a risky experiment. The Czechs believe that the next few years will show how productive this Orban course will be, and if not, the political star of the Hungarian prime minister will go out forever.
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