РЈР · Р ± екРОстР° РЅ РІ 2015 РіРѕРґСѓ: геопоР»РЁС‚РЁС ‡ еские метР° РЅРёСЏ Р СЃР» Р ° РјР ° РРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРР РРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРР РРРРР РРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРРР
Islam Karimov steadily leads Uzbekistan from 1989. His venerable age actualizes the problem of continuity of power in the republic. Now, before the presidential election (March 2015 of the year), Karimov is trying to enlist the support of Moscow, but Washington also has its own views of Uzbekistan.
Electoral caution
Uzbekistan is in the midst of the next electoral cycle. The parliamentary elections (Oliy Majilis), and very soon the presidential elections, have recently come to an end. Keeping this in mind, Karimov prefers a cautious and prudent policy. Of course, he is not afraid of unknown nominees-holders from artificially created parties, the differences between which are not visible. But the planned re-election can interfere with both Moscow and, for example, Washington.
The “Washington Regional Committee” scenario is Maidan. Excuse: rent a military base. Americans have a couple of lured opposition figures who, from abroad in a sluggish format, support talk of a revolution in Uzbekistan.
Trade and economic contacts of Uzbekistan with Russia and Kazakhstan (constituting a single economic space in the EAU format) are of decisive importance for Tashkent. In addition, Moscow has much more leverage over Tashkent. The multimillion army of migrants alone, the “soldiers” of which politely hate Uzbek officials more than skinheads, is a lethal argument. For migrants, “love” with Karimov is mutual: in one of the interviews, he called them “lazy, dishonoring the country”. Imagine what will happen if Russia deports all these “illegal lazy people” before the elections back to Uzbekistan.
V. Putin’s last visit to Uzbekistan showed: Moscow is not going to use hard instruments of pressure on Tashkent. The only thing that could infuriate Russia is the deployment of the American military base in Uzbekistan. In this situation, Karimov is best to keep his mouth shut and not to tease Moscow with the anti-Eurasian rhetoric that he tried to do since the second half of last year.
Billion dollars in exchange for Maidan
And in the first Karimov strenuously polite with the US State Department. After a modest Kyrgyzstan loudly clicked on Washington's nose, refusing to renew the agreement on the Manas airbase, the United States began courting the Uzbek president. From a geopolitical point of view, Uzbekistan, bordering on all the states of the region, is the most convenient option to preserve the influence of Americans in Central Asia.
The visits of high-ranking officials to 2014 in Uzbekistan, including Deputy Secretary of State Burns, Commander of the US Central Command General Austin, leave no doubt - the talks were substantive. It was even called the price - 1 billion dollars, which includes the need to change the Uzbek legislation, according to which it is forbidden to place the bases of foreign troops on the territory of the republic.
In the fall, when American NKOS students spoke about the use of child labor in cotton harvesting in Uzbekistan, as well as a high index of corruption in the country, it finally became clear that the novel would not take place. On the eve of the elections to the Oliy Majilis and the presidential elections, Islam Karimov wisely chose not to anger Moscow.
The United States is dragging Uzbekistan into a geopolitical meat grinder, which is clearly contrary to the national interests of the republic. During the Andijan events of 2005, the Americans, by the way, have already tried to maydanize Uzbekistan. You do not need to be an oracle to understand: the entire infrastructure of the notorious soft power up to the paid NGOs and other fighters for “freedom and democracy” all over the world would have come to Uzbekistan for the American base.
My language is the enemy of Uzbekistan
Islam Karimov periodically scolds integration in the post-Soviet space, claiming Uzbekistan’s categorical unwillingness to participate in it and cutting off (in between) the gas supply to the south of Eurasian Kyrgyzstan. But closer to the middle of 2014, Karimov began to make overtures to Moscow. So, at the SCO summit in Dushanbe, Karimov literally repented of comrade. Putin: they say, he “lost his bearings”, and asked him to “check the clock.” And judging by the fact that at the Minsk meeting of the leaders of the CIS Islam Abdulgangievich spoke to Poroshenko, the “reconciliation of hours” was successful.
And then - Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan, which ended with a number of important agreements and the cancellation of 865 million dollars (Uzbekistan will pay off only 25 million dollars)
Meanwhile, at the end of December 2014, regular elections to the Uzbek parliament were held. And in the middle of January, 2015, Karimov again spoke about the impossibility of returning to the USSR and the non-entry of Uzbekistan into integration associations. These statements are built in full accordance with the rhetoric of the State Department, which the USSR sees in the Eurasian Economic Union. Simply put, Karimov "bowed" to the United States, from which he would soon receive used X-NUMX used combat vehicles.
What Karimov wants to give up
The volumes of economic cooperation between Moscow and Tashkent, the factor of several millions of migrants working in Russia, the depth of humanitarian and cultural contacts all testify to the imminence of Eurasian integration for Uzbekistan. Russia consistently ranks first among the trade partners of Uzbekistan (about 27% of the total foreign trade of Uzbekistan). Commodity turnover for the first nine months of 2014 amounted to 4,5 billion. Monitoring perception of Eurasian integration in Uzbekistan annually brings one of the highest results in the post-Soviet space (at the level of 70 – 80%).
Eurasian integration will allow Uzbekistan to develop its economic ties, especially since the sanctions wars have opened up additional opportunities for Uzbek farmers to market their products. Moreover, Eurasian integration will allow Uzbekistan to reconcile with its neighbors, develop economic contacts and solve problems with them, rather than talk about the threats of war with Tajikistan and start exchanges of fire with Kyrgyz border guards.
What are the ways for Karimov?
Nevertheless, Islam Karimov is dragging the country along the “Turkmen” path, although the Eurasian version is objectively preferable. There is also an American, but it is not an option at all.
So:
1. "Western embrace". There is a deepening of military cooperation with the West, the US military base appears in Uzbekistan, and with it the entire infrastructure of the American soft power and ultimately the Maidan.
2. "Hostile Turkmenistan" scenario. Karimov continues to pull the republic towards isolation. Unlike Turkmenistan, which prefers not to quarrel with anyone, Islam Karimov’s ambitions do not allow Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to be recognized as equal, which is fraught with tense relations, economic wars and even bloodshed. Uzbekistan, which has an impressive human and economic potential, is unprofitable self-isolation, to which Karimov is striving, guided by the interests of his clan and close elites.
3. "Eurasian-objective". Tashkent relies on deepening Eurasian cooperation with Russia and Kazakhstan, establishing constructive contacts with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The volumes of cooperation in the SCO format and agreements on the CIS free trade zone are increasing. Uzbekistan remains the main trading and economic partner of Russia and China in Central Asia.
If Islam Karimov does not allow flirting with the United States, he will get the support of Moscow, which is inclined to respect the leaders of independent states. Therefore, the first scenario is the most unlikely. In the meantime, Karimov prefers the second. Its implementation prevents the republic from developing and leads to a loss of public confidence in the president. The question is normalization of relations with neighbors, which worries Moscow, which is interested in a stable Central Asia. The third scenario is objectively optimal, as it gives the opportunity to move forward to the whole of Uzbekistan, rather than skim the cream of one Karimov clan. However, many see another one - the fourth scenario, involving the change of power in Tashkent, which will happen sooner or later ...
Electoral caution
Uzbekistan is in the midst of the next electoral cycle. The parliamentary elections (Oliy Majilis), and very soon the presidential elections, have recently come to an end. Keeping this in mind, Karimov prefers a cautious and prudent policy. Of course, he is not afraid of unknown nominees-holders from artificially created parties, the differences between which are not visible. But the planned re-election can interfere with both Moscow and, for example, Washington.
The “Washington Regional Committee” scenario is Maidan. Excuse: rent a military base. Americans have a couple of lured opposition figures who, from abroad in a sluggish format, support talk of a revolution in Uzbekistan.
Trade and economic contacts of Uzbekistan with Russia and Kazakhstan (constituting a single economic space in the EAU format) are of decisive importance for Tashkent. In addition, Moscow has much more leverage over Tashkent. The multimillion army of migrants alone, the “soldiers” of which politely hate Uzbek officials more than skinheads, is a lethal argument. For migrants, “love” with Karimov is mutual: in one of the interviews, he called them “lazy, dishonoring the country”. Imagine what will happen if Russia deports all these “illegal lazy people” before the elections back to Uzbekistan.
V. Putin’s last visit to Uzbekistan showed: Moscow is not going to use hard instruments of pressure on Tashkent. The only thing that could infuriate Russia is the deployment of the American military base in Uzbekistan. In this situation, Karimov is best to keep his mouth shut and not to tease Moscow with the anti-Eurasian rhetoric that he tried to do since the second half of last year.
Billion dollars in exchange for Maidan
And in the first Karimov strenuously polite with the US State Department. After a modest Kyrgyzstan loudly clicked on Washington's nose, refusing to renew the agreement on the Manas airbase, the United States began courting the Uzbek president. From a geopolitical point of view, Uzbekistan, bordering on all the states of the region, is the most convenient option to preserve the influence of Americans in Central Asia.
The visits of high-ranking officials to 2014 in Uzbekistan, including Deputy Secretary of State Burns, Commander of the US Central Command General Austin, leave no doubt - the talks were substantive. It was even called the price - 1 billion dollars, which includes the need to change the Uzbek legislation, according to which it is forbidden to place the bases of foreign troops on the territory of the republic.
In the fall, when American NKOS students spoke about the use of child labor in cotton harvesting in Uzbekistan, as well as a high index of corruption in the country, it finally became clear that the novel would not take place. On the eve of the elections to the Oliy Majilis and the presidential elections, Islam Karimov wisely chose not to anger Moscow.
The United States is dragging Uzbekistan into a geopolitical meat grinder, which is clearly contrary to the national interests of the republic. During the Andijan events of 2005, the Americans, by the way, have already tried to maydanize Uzbekistan. You do not need to be an oracle to understand: the entire infrastructure of the notorious soft power up to the paid NGOs and other fighters for “freedom and democracy” all over the world would have come to Uzbekistan for the American base.
My language is the enemy of Uzbekistan
Islam Karimov periodically scolds integration in the post-Soviet space, claiming Uzbekistan’s categorical unwillingness to participate in it and cutting off (in between) the gas supply to the south of Eurasian Kyrgyzstan. But closer to the middle of 2014, Karimov began to make overtures to Moscow. So, at the SCO summit in Dushanbe, Karimov literally repented of comrade. Putin: they say, he “lost his bearings”, and asked him to “check the clock.” And judging by the fact that at the Minsk meeting of the leaders of the CIS Islam Abdulgangievich spoke to Poroshenko, the “reconciliation of hours” was successful.
And then - Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan, which ended with a number of important agreements and the cancellation of 865 million dollars (Uzbekistan will pay off only 25 million dollars)
Meanwhile, at the end of December 2014, regular elections to the Uzbek parliament were held. And in the middle of January, 2015, Karimov again spoke about the impossibility of returning to the USSR and the non-entry of Uzbekistan into integration associations. These statements are built in full accordance with the rhetoric of the State Department, which the USSR sees in the Eurasian Economic Union. Simply put, Karimov "bowed" to the United States, from which he would soon receive used X-NUMX used combat vehicles.
What Karimov wants to give up
The volumes of economic cooperation between Moscow and Tashkent, the factor of several millions of migrants working in Russia, the depth of humanitarian and cultural contacts all testify to the imminence of Eurasian integration for Uzbekistan. Russia consistently ranks first among the trade partners of Uzbekistan (about 27% of the total foreign trade of Uzbekistan). Commodity turnover for the first nine months of 2014 amounted to 4,5 billion. Monitoring perception of Eurasian integration in Uzbekistan annually brings one of the highest results in the post-Soviet space (at the level of 70 – 80%).
Eurasian integration will allow Uzbekistan to develop its economic ties, especially since the sanctions wars have opened up additional opportunities for Uzbek farmers to market their products. Moreover, Eurasian integration will allow Uzbekistan to reconcile with its neighbors, develop economic contacts and solve problems with them, rather than talk about the threats of war with Tajikistan and start exchanges of fire with Kyrgyz border guards.
What are the ways for Karimov?
Nevertheless, Islam Karimov is dragging the country along the “Turkmen” path, although the Eurasian version is objectively preferable. There is also an American, but it is not an option at all.
So:
1. "Western embrace". There is a deepening of military cooperation with the West, the US military base appears in Uzbekistan, and with it the entire infrastructure of the American soft power and ultimately the Maidan.
2. "Hostile Turkmenistan" scenario. Karimov continues to pull the republic towards isolation. Unlike Turkmenistan, which prefers not to quarrel with anyone, Islam Karimov’s ambitions do not allow Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to be recognized as equal, which is fraught with tense relations, economic wars and even bloodshed. Uzbekistan, which has an impressive human and economic potential, is unprofitable self-isolation, to which Karimov is striving, guided by the interests of his clan and close elites.
3. "Eurasian-objective". Tashkent relies on deepening Eurasian cooperation with Russia and Kazakhstan, establishing constructive contacts with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The volumes of cooperation in the SCO format and agreements on the CIS free trade zone are increasing. Uzbekistan remains the main trading and economic partner of Russia and China in Central Asia.
If Islam Karimov does not allow flirting with the United States, he will get the support of Moscow, which is inclined to respect the leaders of independent states. Therefore, the first scenario is the most unlikely. In the meantime, Karimov prefers the second. Its implementation prevents the republic from developing and leads to a loss of public confidence in the president. The question is normalization of relations with neighbors, which worries Moscow, which is interested in a stable Central Asia. The third scenario is objectively optimal, as it gives the opportunity to move forward to the whole of Uzbekistan, rather than skim the cream of one Karimov clan. However, many see another one - the fourth scenario, involving the change of power in Tashkent, which will happen sooner or later ...
- Dmitry Mikhailichenko
- http://www.odnako.org/blogs/uzbekistan-v-2015-godu-geopoliticheskie-metaniya-islama-karimova/
Information