Assessment of the reality of world war as the main instrument for overcoming the global crisis and its probable nature
The global financial crisis has become today the main factor determining both global and regional political processes, and the direction of the development of the domestic political situation in almost all countries of the world.
Despite the emergency measures taken by the leaders of almost all countries of the world to resolve it, intensive consultations and summits at the highest level have not yet been achieved in this direction.
The reason for this is that the global financial crisis is only a manifestation of a deeper and wider civilizational crisis that covers almost all aspects of the life of modern Humanity.
The main imbalances and contradictions that gave rise to the global (inherently civilizational) crisis include:
1. The contradiction between the growth of production and consumption and the available resources necessary for development, the possibilities of the Earth’s ecosystem.
The resolution of this contradiction is possible only by reducing consumption. The question arises - how and by whom?
2. Disproportions in the distribution of industrial facilities and raw materials, which gave rise to a conflict of interest between industrialized countries and countries supplying raw materials
Resolution of this conflict is possible, either by establishing more equitable global commodity-money relations, or by gaining control of industrialized countries over the main planetary raw materials by establishing their dominance (in any form) over the countries supplying raw materials.
3. The contradiction between the "poor" developing countries and the "rich" industrialized.
Its resolution is also possible, either through the establishment of fairer global commodity-money relations, or by the actual destruction of the sovereignty of developing countries, by establishing over them, in one form or another, the military-political control of the countries of the industrialized West.
4. The contradiction between nations, national elites and transnational elites.
Its resolution is possible either by building a unified world state where supranational authorities and various other transnational subjects will dominate, with a radical weakening or complete elimination of state sovereigns, or creating a world order as a community of sovereign states reflecting the interests of their peoples, where supranational bodies play only a coordinating role, and transnational structures do not have independent political subjectness.
5. The contradiction between the volume of the global "financial bubble" and the scale of the real sector of the global economy.
Its resolution is possible either by eliminating (in any form) the global "financial bubble", which is fraught with the loss of power by the transnational financial elite, or by its "conversion" into the real economy, which will mean the establishment of undivided economic domination of the transnational financial elite over the world.
6. The contradiction between the enormous global financial power of the transnational financial elite and the lack of its political subjectivity.
Its resolution can be carried out either by building a unified world state, transforming the current transnational financial elite into the sole subject of world power, or eliminating the financial dominance of the transnational financial elite in the system of international economic relations with restoring the economic sovereignty of states.
7. The contradiction between the lack of spirituality of the “free market”, which generates the power of money and the spiritual foundations of the existence of various civilizations that form civilizational differences, which generate the power of ideas (to one degree or another).
The resolution of this contradiction is possible only through the establishment of a single spiritual basis of the world order.
The disproportions and contradictions that gave rise to the civilizational crisis that has begun its development encompass all spheres of human activity and, accordingly, changes in society aimed at eliminating this crisis will have to cover all aspects of the world order. That is, we are talking about building a qualitatively new world order, in all major aspects that are different from the present.
It is for this reason that measures aimed at overcoming the financial crisis do not allow, and we can safely say, do not allow, to solve this civilization crisis, and therefore, to eliminate its manifestation in the financial sphere - the financial crisis.
The experience of resolving two similar crises at the beginning and in the middle of the 20 century shows that their resolution went through world wars - First and Second.
An analysis of possible options for resolving imbalances and contradictions that gave rise to this crisis shows that they are antagonistic in nature and without significant harm to the interests of certain major geopolitical subjects, this crisis will not be resolved. And this means the inevitability of the use of military force to resolve them. Given the global nature of the crisis, it can be assumed that the scale of the use of military force to resolve it will become global.
Thus, it can be argued that the impending civilization crisis with a very high probability will generate a new world war and will be resolved following its outcome.
It's time to discuss the likely nature of this war.
The main aspects that determine the nature of any war are: its participants, the goals they pursue in this war and the tasks they accomplish, applied weapon, the main stages of the war, the factors determining its course and possible options for its outcome.
World War will be unconditionally coalition. The composition of coalitions will be determined by the commitment of specific countries (or rather their elites) to one or another model of the new world order, which they are ready to defend in the war.
Analysis of possible options for resolving imbalances and contradictions shows that today a new world order can only be built on one of two models.
The first, which can be called according to its essence, as the “world of civilizational hierarchy”, when few “elected”, defining themselves as “the intellectual core of humanity”, preserve and increase the achieved level of consumption, due to the brutal exploitation of the rest of Mankind with artificial reduction of its number, bringing to a critically minimum level of its material consumption and spiritual degradation.
The implementation of this model implies the disappearance of intercivilizational differences - the “unification” of nations, essentially the disappearance of civilizations themselves, with the division of all mankind into two “supercivilizations” - the “Golden billion” and all the rest “exploited subhumans”.
Today, this is manifested in the form of the division of countries into industrialized ones, which have the prospect of further development and the countries of the world periphery, doomed to degradation in the spiritual, economic and demographic terms.
The second model could be called as "civilizational mutual support" or "civilizational harmony". In this variant, the goal of globalization is not to “unify”, but to develop all existing civilizations, while preserving and expanding the “field of development” for each nation and civilization, which forms the basis for the development of each and all of them. This is the path to the future.
That is, in essence, a new world war will be conducted on what spiritual foundations a new world order will be built on: either the basis of the new world order is individualism, selfishness, the suppression of one subject by another, the principle of survival at the expense of others, or the basis of world relations will be put community, the dominance of the common interests of joint survival and development, over private, the principle of joint survival at the expense of mutual support.
This is its qualitative difference from the two previous world wars, which were conducted mainly for the economic division of the world.
This allows conceptually determining the composition of possible coalitions in a future world war. They will be two:
1.Community of the so-called industrialized countries, which will be based on the countries of Western civilization, the spiritual foundations of which are based on individualism and material origin, generating the power of money, which claim to be the world hegemon controlling all world resources, with the destruction of the geopolitical subjectivity of all other civilizations.
2. The community of countries of the Orthodox, Islamic and other civilizations, the spiritual basis of which is the spiritual domination over the material, the general over the private, individual, which objectively focus on a multi-polar world order.
Today, the core of the first coalition has already been formed not only politically, but also military-political in the form of a NATO bloc.
His global goal in the new world war — the establishment of world domination — a unipolar world — is also clearly understood.
In particular, this goal is explicitly defined in the US National Security Strategy - achieving guaranteed access to all vital areas of the world for the United States, that is, establishing control over all major resource-containing areas of the world.
The elites of the countries of this coalition clearly, first of all at the spiritual level, imagine the main adversary, as which at this stage the Islamic and Orthodox civilizations are primarily defined.
The community of countries oriented toward a multipolar world order that can form a second coalition has not yet realized the commonality of its geopolitical interests, not to mention any political or military-political arrangement of a single union. The SCO or the CSTO could serve as a prototype of such a union, at this stage very loose and inefficient organizations.
Today there is no clearly developed, universally recognized model of a new world order in the version of a multipolar world.
Under these conditions, it is natural that the objectively existing global goal of these countries in the new world war is the establishment of a fair multipolar world, which they have not fully realized.
Therefore, there is no understanding of the main task of the countries of the second coalition in the world war - the failure of attempts to establish world domination of Western civilization in the form of a unipolar world order.
This makes it possible for Western civilization to push them in a fierce internecine struggle. Today we see how Muslims are being pitted against Orthodox and Hindus, they split Islam itself by pushing together Sunnis and Shiites.
Based on the essence of the goals of the first coalition, it can be called as a “neo-imperialist coalition,” while the second is an “anti-imperialist coalition.”
Based on the likely goal of the neo-imperialist coalition's actions, its main global task in world war will be to defeat a coalition of countries striving for a multipolar world with political or even military-political control over them and the elimination or radical weakening of their state sovereignty.
Based on the probable goal of the anti-imperialist coalition’s actions, its main global task in world war should be - repelling the aggression of the neo-imperialist coalition and disrupting the building of a monopolar world, while preserving its state sovereignty, and the subsequent construction of a multipolar world pattern.
Taking into account the decisiveness of the objectives of the parties in the upcoming world war, one should expect that in its course all the commissions of weapons and military equipment, including weapons of mass destruction, will be used:
1. Information weapons will be used at all stages of preparation and development of world war in peacetime and wartime, which is determined by the high secrecy of its impact on the enemy and the lack of an international legal framework that effectively regulates its use.
Information weapons will be the main means of struggle in the peace period, and with the start of hostilities, they will be used mainly in the interest of ensuring the use of armed forces.
2. Conventional weapons will be used by the parties in full with the outbreak of hostilities. A condition for the commencement of hostilities with the use of conventional weapons will be the creation of at least a minimum moral, psychological and regulatory framework for the commencement of hostilities.
Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, we should expect a limited use of conventional weapons by special operations in the interests of ensuring the effective use of information weapons.
Conventional types of weapons will be used by the parties to solve almost all the tasks of world war.
3.The main types of non-nuclear weapons of mass destruction (WMD), which can be used in a possible world war, include chemical and biological.
The possibility of covert use of biological weapons, especially the newest ones, will allow them to be used not only in the course of hostilities, but also in the peace period.
Another major feature of this type of MLE is a relatively low threshold of application.
Significant impact on the scale and methods of its use by the parties will undoubtedly be the simplicity of its manufacture and use, allowing the use of this type of weapons of mass destruction even by non-governmental and relatively limited in their capabilities organizations.
An important factor limiting the possible extent of the use of biological weapons will be the threat of major epidemics or even a pandemic.
Of particular note is the possibility of using non-nuclear weapons of mass destruction by non-state organizations of a terrestrial nature, which can use it as one of the forms of their struggle. At the same time, their similar activities will be used by the opposing countries as a pretext (incident) for further escalation of hostilities.
4. Nuclear weapons today are the most powerful weapons of mass destruction, which a limited number of countries of the “nuclear club” possess and some others that, formally without entering this “club”, possess nuclear weapons (in particular, Israel, India, Pakistan, probably in the future Iran and North Korea).
The use of nuclear weapons in a world war is likely to be extremely limited in scale and mainly to intimidate the enemy in order to force him to abandon the further escalation of the war, or to force him to abandon the further struggle.
Large-scale use of nuclear weapons is unlikely (although not completely excluded), due to the fact that this will mean a national catastrophe for countries that have exchanged massive nuclear strikes, with their likely disappearance from the face of the Earth as state entities.
For a correct prediction of the probable periodization of a future world war, it is necessary to analyze the current state of countries and their alliances, which may in the future form opposing coalitions in a world war.
The growing global crisis necessitated a radical revision of the foundations of the global world order. Today, it can be stated that the absolute majority of national elites recognize the need to build a new world order, but they imagine it differently:
The leadership of the United States and the EU countries, judging by the statements of its representatives, continue to pursue a policy of establishing their dominance in the world, entrusting other countries (of course in camouflaged form) to ensure their prosperity at the expense of their resources and bring development and prosperity of their peoples to this.
Contradictions within this community (in particular between the USA and individual EU countries) are non-antagonistic in nature and, apparently, are related to the division of spheres of influence in the new world order implying the domination of Western civilization over the rest of the "uncivilized" world.
This community of countries in the organizational and technical terms as a whole allows them to count on waging successful first wars and armed conflicts in a world war.
Their main problems remain high sensitivity to the loss of personnel of the armed forces of these countries and the unpreparedness of the population of these countries for war, which is largely determined by the lack of war ideology, as well as limited natural resources, territory and human potential, compared to the rest of the world.
This determines the unpreparedness of these states for war in the moral and ideological respects and calls into question the success of their coalition in a protracted war.
Countries that are not part of Western civilization, are mostly neither organizationally nor technically prepared for the military confrontation of Western civilization.
At the same time, this community has an overwhelming superiority in human potential, a higher moral potential compared to Western civilization and control of vast natural resources and territories.
This significantly increases the chances of this community of states to win a protracted war, and also creates favorable conditions for organizing resistance to the aggressor in the early stages of the war, including by raising popular resistance in the event of the defeat of their armed forces, and also virtually eliminates the possibility of simultaneous geopolitical strikes in all directions, creating a time reserve for the consolidation of non-Western civilization countries in the anti-imperialist coalition, as well as support for those countries that will the first victims of aggression on the part of Western civilization.
Thus, none of the possible coalitions at the moment is fully prepared for participation in a world war.
Today, Western countries can only initiate internal armed conflicts in other countries and take part in resolving them by very limited contingents of troops, placing the main burden of the struggle in these conflicts on one of the warring parties allied with them.
Yes, and today the leaders of the Western powers, including the USA, are not morally ready to switch to the large-scale use of military force to resolve the developing crisis in a world saturated with weapons of mass destruction.
Based on this, it can be assumed that in the near future, Western civilization will set itself the goal of resolving the crisis in its own interests with the formation of a system of international relations advantageous to it (to build a world order favorable to the West in which it will dominate the rest of Mankind) with non-military measures.
In turn, other countries will strive to resolve the world crisis together in Western civilization with minimal losses for themselves and form the basis for building a multi-polar and equitable new world order in the future.
Accordingly, this first stage, according to the goals of the parties, can be referred to as “an attempt to resolve the crisis peacefully.”
An important activity of Western civilization at this stage will be the initiation of internal armed conflicts in the countries of other civilizations, especially the largest ones, in order to create the conditions for their disintegration, undermining their economy and military potential.
At the same time, measures will be taken to bring their armed forces into a state of readiness to conduct large-scale military operations.
During this period, military activities will have an auxiliary period and will focus mainly on solving demonstrative tasks and “special actions” in the territories of other states, as well as on the end of hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan.
A common phenomenon at this stage, but especially noticeable for the countries of Western civilization, will be the growth of the class, interethnic and inter-religious struggle, the growth of xenophobia. This will serve as a good basis for the beginning of the fascization processes of the countries of Western civilization.
The duration of this stage can vary within wide limits - from 1-2 to 5-6 years, depending on the intensity of the development of the crisis and the effectiveness of Western attempts to achieve their goals based only on non-military measures.
Given the antagonistic nature of the contradictions that gave rise to this crisis, it can be assumed that the non-military measures taken at this stage will not lead to the desired result (which, by the way, can be clearly seen from the 20G summits) and Western civilization, realizing that it cannot achieve anything by non-military measures , will proceed to direct preparation for armed struggle for resources, initially in the form of local wars and armed conflicts.
The second stage, which can be referred to as the “threatened period before the start of the world war”, will begin, during which Western civilization will begin the direct preparation of local wars and armed conflicts for resources.
By this time, the neo-imperialist coalition, which has become the main form of the military-political organization of Western civilization in world war, will be completely finalized in almost all major aspects that are significant for the war.
Within this period, the neo-imperialist coalition will pursue the goal of creating ideological, moral, psychological, economic, regulatory, and politico-diplomatic conditions for conducting successful local wars and armed conflicts during the initial phase of world war.
From the countries of other civilizations, the goal of actions at the 2 stage may be to contain the processes leading to the transition to the armed struggle phase, by preserving and strengthening the existing international security system, strengthening regional alliances with expanding their defense functions, and building the capacity of their armed forces. Great efforts will be made to curb the escalation of international tensions, even at the cost of certain economic concessions. As an integral form of the military-political organization of countries opposing the expansion of the neo-imperialist coalition, the anti-imperialist coalition is still not likely to take shape.
The main content of actions at this stage will be information operations and actions in the economic sphere, which may have a different form - from economic sanctions to terrorist acts at industrial enterprises, as well as various forms of actions by special operations forces.
During this period, countries will emerge that will act as the cores of the regional consolidation of other countries for the collective opposition of aggression by the neo-imperialist coalition.
The stage will end with the formation of the readiness of the neo-imperialist coalition for limited wars. At the same time, most likely, political and strategic military alliances of countries opposing the neo-imperialist coalition will most likely form and will reveal to them in a more or less clear form a source of threat to their national security in the form of Western civilization.
The duration of this stage will be relatively short - 1-2 of the year, which is determined by the desire of the neo-imperialist coalition to strategically preempt the consolidation of the countries against them and try to crush them one by one, avoiding the emergence of a united front of resistance.
With the completion of the formation of the moral and psychological base of the war, at least in the main, the neo-imperialist coalition will most likely move to local wars against individual states that are leaders or are capable of becoming such in the regional communities opposing it. The third stage of world war will begin, which in its essence will be the initial period of world war. According to its main content, it can be called the “phase of limited wars”.
Within its framework, the neo-imperialist coalition will pursue the goal of destroying the emerging regional unions of states by smashing the formed or emerging leaders of regional consolidation while simultaneously scaring the rest of the states of the region.
At this stage, most likely, the states of the anti-imperialist coalition most likely will not have a single goal of action.
Some states subjected to aggression will pursue the goal of repelling it, others will not allow aggression against themselves, and still others will strengthen regional alliances as a means of protection against the growing military threat from the neo-imperialist coalition.
The main content of the actions in this period will be a limited number of local wars and armed conflicts, which will be conducted by the neo-imperialist coalition against the states, which, occupying a leading position in their regions, strive to pursue an independent policy from the West.
There will be internal and interstate military conflicts of varying intensity in countries outside the neo-imperialist coalition.
During this period, mostly conventional weapons will be used. However, in the event of an unfavorable development of the situation for the grouping of the armed forces of the neo-imperialist coalition and with the guarantee of the absence of a nuclear response, it can be assumed that it will launch single nuclear strikes in order to force its opponents to refuse further resistance. To justify such attacks, provocations with limited use of chemical weapons against their own population are possible.
The duration of this stage will be determined mainly by the ability of the countries subjected to aggression to resist it and the growth rates of regional and global military-political consolidation of countries not in the neo-imperialist coalition and can range from 2-3 to 6-7 years.
This stage will be completed from the moment when other states of the region will start to participate in local wars against one state, as well as with the creation of capable military defensive regional unions, states not belonging to the neo-imperialist coalition.
From this point on, a weakly controlled escalation of individual local wars into regional wars will begin, new local wars and armed conflicts will arise.
This will mark the beginning of a new stage of world war - “a full-scale world war with the use of conventional weapons.”
The periodization of this stage today is extremely difficult to predict, since it is determined by many factors that are hardly predictable today. However, based on the initial state of the opposing coalitions and their natural actions in the war, three main periods of full-scale world war with the use of conventional weapons can be distinguished.
The first of these, which can be referred to as the “divided geopolitical defense of the anti-imperialist coalition”, will differ in that the countries of this coalition due to the incompleteness of their military-political consolidation will be forced to conduct poorly coordinated fighting between different regions at the global level, while the neo-imperialist coalition , acting coherently and possessing superiority in terms of organization and capabilities of its transport infrastructure will, owning a geopolitical infrastructure tsiativoy, geopolitical offensive conduct, freely maneuvering forces to their concentration in the most important at that time or another geo-political regions.
The duration of this period will mainly be determined by the time needed by the countries of the anti-imperialist coalition to organize concerted actions on a global scale and can range from 2-4 to 6-7 years or more.
The next period, which can be called a “geopolitical balance,” based on the evolving ratio of the parties, will also be quite long - 3-5 years, and will end with the exhaustion of a neo-imperialist coalition of human and material resources for conducting simultaneous large-scale offensive operations in all theaters of the world war.
As a result, the neo-imperialist coalition will be forced to move to geopolitical defense and will start looking for ways to end the war on the minimum acceptable conditions for itself. The stage of the "geopolitical offensive of the anti-imperialist coalition" will begin. During this period, the fall of governments in some countries of the neo-imperialist coalition is possible, as a result of mass demonstrations of the population (including armed ones) caused by war and losses, with these countries leaving the war.
If such events occur in several leading countries of the neo-imperialist coalition, this may lead to the disintegration of this coalition, and possibly the end of world war by the victory of the anti-imperialist coalition.
At the stage of “full-scale world war with the use of conventional weapons” separate single nuclear strikes may occur mainly from the neo-imperialist coalition, but their probability will be significantly lower than at previous stages due to the increased threat of a response from the nuclear powers of the anti-imperialist coalition. more bound by military treaties with other countries of this coalition.
At this stage, the scale of internal armed conflicts in the countries of the anti-imperialist coalition will be significantly reduced as a result of the adoption of more decisive measures to curb them.
In the face of the revealed global adversary, regional contradictions will recede into the background and military conflicts between the countries of the anti-imperialist coalition will end.
However, the threat of large-scale covert use of biological weapons of mass destruction by the countries of the neo-imperialist coalition will increase significantly.
As the capacity of the neo-imperialist coalition to continue the war, the scale of military defeats and internal political tensions in its countries, some of its members out of the war and the impossibility of achieving peace at least on the minimum acceptable conditions, the neo-imperialist coalition can go for the limited use of nuclear weapons as the last resort to forcing the opposing coalition to peace.
The “limited use of weapons of mass destruction” phase will begin.
This stage will be very short - from several days to several months, which is determined by the sharp increase in the threat of a transition to full-scale use of nuclear weapons and huge losses among the personnel of the troops and civilians.
Its distinctive feature will be the use by the parties of a nuclear weapon (mainly tactical) in the form of single and group strikes, against the background of ongoing hostilities with conventional weapons.
Most likely, after this, the warring coalitions will be forced to go to peace negotiations and end the world war by signing a mutually acceptable peace.
However, if this does not happen, in the face of the threat of complete defeat, the neo-imperialist coalition can go for the full-scale use of nuclear weapons.
Within the framework of this stage - “full-scale use of nuclear weapons”, the parties will exchange nuclear strikes with the main composition of their strategic nuclear forces. This will be the shortest stage and will be several days in duration.
As a result, the leading countries of the opposing coalitions will be subject to mutual destruction, and the coalitions themselves may lose unity.
The world war will collapse into a weakly interconnected system of local wars and armed conflicts, which will gradually fade due to the loss of the material basis for the continuation of the war, huge losses in the personnel of the troops and civilians, their complete demoralization.
In this scenario, the world war will most likely end by concluding a system of separate peace treaties.
The possibility of the development of a situation with this option can be assessed as extremely unlikely, since mutual destruction is an absolutely unacceptable outcome for both opposing coalitions.
With the beginning of peace negotiations of coalition leaders, military operations in certain regions and directions most likely will not cease - the parties will strive, by suspending confrontation on a geopolitical scale, to achieve private strategic and operational successes before the possible end of world war to strengthen their positions during peace negotiations and create prerequisites to achieve a favorable political configuration of the future world order in certain regions of the world.
Analyzing the experience of previous wars, it can be assumed that full-fledged peace agreements that allow complete cessation of hostilities cannot quickly be reached and this stage can be several years long - from a year to 4 years and more.
With the completion of peace negotiations and the conclusion of peace, the stage of "forming a new world order" will begin.
Within this stage, the legal formulation of the new world order will be completed, with the creation of an international regulatory framework corresponding to it, the creation of new and reorganization of the remaining international coordination and other bodies, the formation of a new system of international management and coordination, the development and adoption of new ideological foundations of civilization, formation of a benevolent or neutral attitude among the population towards the accomplished end of world war, reorganization into new Again the economic world order, the translation of the armed forces on a peaceful position, the reorientation of the industry on the issue of peace-time production. At the same time, local military actions will be conducted to destroy illegal armed groups.
The total duration of this stage, judging by the scale of the actions that need to be performed and the experience of ending previous wars, can range from 3-4 to 7-10 years or more.
The outlined version of the periodization of a possible world war is formed on the assumption that the Russian nuclear potential remains a deterrent to the countries of the neo-imperialist coalition.
In case of neutralization of the nuclear potential of Russia, the neo-imperialist coalition will most likely go towards the destruction by the preemptive strike of the nuclear potential of China and other opposing countries possessing nuclear weapons, and will proceed to the unrestricted use of nuclear weapons, thereby achieving complete victory.
It can happen at any stage of the development of world war. However, it is most likely that this will occur in a threatened period or in the early stages of a world war.
The most important element of the analysis of the nature of any war is the identification of its possible outcomes and the factors determining one or another of them.
The outcome of the world war will be largely determined by the fundamental resources of the opposing coalitions: spiritual, scientific, military, industrial, human, resource and territorial potentials.
The neo-imperialist coalition has an indisputable advantage in scientific, military and industrial potentials, has a mature military-political organization and is geographically very compact, and reliable control of ocean and sea communications, superiority in air transport means allows it to act in concert as a single system. The weak sides of this coalition include significantly smaller territories occupied by it, limited reserves of resources that do not allow it to conduct long and intensive military operations, as well as the inability to carry out ideological control of the majority of the population of the planet, including its own population, due to the need conceal the true goals, that is, the absence of a full-fledged ideological base of war adopted by the population of these countries, the associated lack of the necessary moral and psychological level oh readiness of the population to wage war, high sensitivity to losses. Significantly reduces the possibilities of the neo-imperialist coalition and the large in number of diaspora representatives of immigrants from other countries, who will form the basis for the emergence of internal political instability in it.
This gives it significant advantages over the anti-imperialist coalition, primarily in the initial stages of world war.
The anti-imperialist coalition will surpass its adversary in spiritual, human, resource and territorial relations, significantly lagging behind in terms of organization, information and economic opportunities. In addition, the countries of the anti-imperialist coalition are geographically disunited and have very limited control over the seas and oceans, the air, space and information spaces.
This superiority will manifest itself in the later stages of World War II.
Therefore, the neo-imperialist coalition will strive to solve all the major geopolitical tasks during the first stages of world war, preventing it from being dragged out. Given the enormous superiority of the anti-imperialist coalition in the size of the territories it occupies, the human and spiritual potential of the possibility of achieving the goals of a world war by the neo-imperialist coalition based on the results of its first stages can be assessed as unlikely.
The dragging of world war in the conditions of the preservation of the nuclear deterrence factor on the part of Russia and, in part, China, sharply reduces the chances of a complete victory for the neo-imperialist coalition. Under these conditions, the possibility of establishing a parity world substantially increases, when the parties, having practically exhausted the possibilities for further warfare, agree to partially satisfy their claims. Such a variant of the outcome of a world war can be assessed as very likely.
The possibility of a complete defeat of the neo-imperialist coalition, given its enormous nuclear potential (the United States, as well as Great Britain and France), exists only if an internal social explosion occurs in the leading countries of this coalition, primarily the United States. The possibility of such an outcome, given the multinational composition of the United States, the presence of significant internal contradictions, primarily on a national and class basis, as well as the domination of individualism in the spiritual sphere, exists, but this outcome can be assessed as extremely unlikely.
Significant (taking into account the current situation in Russia, when the “fifth column of the West” has a significant impact on decision-making in the field of the country's defense, in particular, on the direction of building the Russian Armed Forces), we can assume the possibility of neutralizing Russia's nuclear potential during the threatened period or during the first stages of war followed by the transition of the neo-imperialist coalition to the unrestricted use of nuclear weapons, which will allow it to achieve complete victory.
The analysis performed allows us to conclude that a new world war, if it is unleashed, will affect most of the world's population, covering almost all continents, oceans and seas. In terms of duration, it can span the period from 6-7 to 25-30 years.
More than 100 millions of people from both sides can take part in hostilities.
The total demographic losses of the world's population may exceed several hundred million people.
Therefore, all honest people of the Earth, of all countries, including those in the present work of the neo-imperialist coalition, must do everything possible to prevent such a development of the world situation.
To do this, it is necessary to temper, perhaps by force of law, by other means, the greed of transnational and national tycoons of the economy, primarily the financial sphere, to stop their ambitious, self-serving, unprincipled and sometimes very close-minded politicians.
This can be done only on the basis of international consolidation of efforts.
First vice president
Academy of geopolitical problems,
Doctor of Military Sciences
SIVKOV Konstantin Valentinovich
Academy of geopolitical problems,
Doctor of Military Sciences
SIVKOV Konstantin Valentinovich
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