Who shot down the Malaysian Boeing?
The photograph, more similar not to the original, but to some generalized satellite reconnaissance, was shown on the First Channel and literally blew up the Internet - everyone rushed to discuss whether it was a fake. Many expressed it - except for officials and interested departments. MIC does not plan to participate in the discussion, but is willing to share with the readers the source material that caused the release of the sensational picture. This is a situational analysis of the disaster prepared by the Russian Union of Engineers.
Malaysia Airlines' Boeing 777 (Amsterdam - Kuala Lumpur) aircraft flew from Amsterdam Schiphol Airport to 10.14 UTC (14.14 Moscow time) 17.07.2014 and was supposed to arrive at its destination in 6.10 local time (22.10 UTC / 2: 10 MSK).
The flight was carried out by the third swing crew. According to the British Daily Mail, the pilots expressed concerns about the risky route.
In 16.15 Kiev time (14.15 GMT), the Ukrainian air traffic controllers first lost their connection with the MH17 flight, and in 16.20 (14.20 GMT) it completely disappeared from the radar of the Dnipropetrovsk dispatch center. In 16.45 (14.45 GMT) a signal of an emergency airliner beacon was discovered three kilometers north-west of the village of Grabovo, Shakhtarsky District, Donetsk Region, which is located 78 kilometers from Donetsk and approximately 50 kilometers from the Russian border. Subsequently, the wreckage of the aircraft found burning on the ground in Ukraine. The plane crashed near the village of Hrabovo (near the town of Torez).
Conducting a situational analysis is due to the need to identify the external and internal factors that caused the death of Boeing 777, as well as to determine the circle of persons involved in this situation and the parties interested in deriving any benefit from this event and legally responsible for it.
The Russian Union of Engineers (RSI) created an analytical group led by Ivan Andrievsky - a team of highly qualified specialists. The final work was first of all presented to the President of the Center for International Geopolitical Analysis - Colonel General of the Reserve, Doctor historical Sciences, Professor Leonid Ivashov and received his positive assessment.
To conduct a situational analysis, the following input data were taken into account:
- conclusions from the engineering and technical analysis of the causes of the death of the Boeing 777 earlier conducted by RSI experts;
- assessment of the airspace in the area of the disaster;
-evaluation of the military infrastructure in the area of the disaster;
-evaluation of the mechanism for making managerial decisions that resulted in the destruction of a civilian aircraft and the structure of command and control of troops in the area of the antiterrorist operation (ATO) by the authorities of Ukraine;
-evaluation of the state of the military-political situation in the area before and after the catastrophe;
-evaluation of the coverage of the death of Boeing 777 by officials and the media (speeches by leaders of European countries, Malaysia and the USA);
- the process of investigating the causes of the disaster
-the preliminary results of the investigation of the Netherlands Security Council from 09.09.2014;
- conclusions of other experts.
Conclusions from an earlier technical analysis by RCI experts of the causes of the death of the Boeing 777. According to RCI analysts, it occurred as a result of its complex defeat both with missile weapons of a combat aircraft (melee air-to-air missile) and with cannon weapons using 30 -mm aviation gun or container SPPU-22 with a double-barreled 23-mm gun GSH-23L. Perhaps a laser rangefinder or sight was used, which can significantly increase accuracy. The nature of the damage and the expansion of the fragments indicate the use of two types weapons: There are also round holes in the wreckage of Boeing, which are usually obtained as a result of cannon shots, and tearing holes, typical of missiles with arrow-shaped striking elements (for example, P-27).
The territory of the Donetsk region in the area of the death of Boeing 777 (north-west of the village of Grabovo, Shakhtarsky district and approximately 50 kilometers from the border with Russia) 17 July 2014 was under the control of self-defense forces. At the same time only ground was under control, but not air. Fighting between the armed forces of Ukraine, the National Guard and volunteer battalions on the one hand and the DPR militia on the other was conducted on this territory.
Government forces and formations used heavy weapons.
8 July Kiev closed the airspace in the combat zone with the wording: "In order to ensure an adequate level of flight safety." The corresponding ban issued by the State Aviation Service.
Ukrainian authorities closed the airspace above the conflict zone from July 1 to a height of 7900 meters (26 000 feet) for civil aviation, and from July 14 to 9800 meters (32 000 feet). The International Air Transport Association (IATA) stated that, according to its data, there were no restrictions on flights in the space followed by the Malaysian airliner, and the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation indicates that the space was closed by the Ukrainian authorities on the route of the airliner. to flight level 320, and at flight level 330 (33 000 feet), on which the aircraft followed, flights were allowed. According to the airline’s press release, the MH17 flight plan provided for the use of 35 000 ft echelon throughout the entire route through Ukraine’s airspace, but Ukrainian air traffic controllers instructed him to use 33 XEUMF echelon.
By the time the Malaysian Boeing 777 disappeared from radar screens, British Airways, all US airlines, Lufthansa, Air France and Australian Quantas have already added extra 20 minutes to their routes to bypass the danger zone in southeast Ukraine.
At the time of the death of the Boeing 777 in the country's airspace there were three civilian aircraft performing regular flights: from Copenhagen to Singapore to 17.17, from Paris to Taipei to 17.24, from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. In addition, Russian means of controlling the air situation recorded a climb of Ukrainian Air Force aircraft, presumably Su-25, in the direction of the Malaysian airliner. The removal of the Su-25 from the Boeing 777 was between three and five kilometers.
18 July, a senior Eurocontrol dispatcher Brian Flynn said that due to a plane crash around 350 flights a day, including 150 international, will be changed due to the ban on civil aviation flights over eastern Ukraine.
As stated in the preliminary report presented by the Netherlands side of 9 September, “the plane deviated from the course without permission. At 12.53 (UTC or at 15.53 local time), the aircraft flew under the control of the Dnipropetrovsk air traffic control unit, in the 2 sector at FL330 flight level. At this point, the dispatcher asks the board if they can gain altitude and take FL350 to avoid intersections with another Boeing 777 that is flying behind. The board responds that it will not be able to take 350, and asks to continue the flight on 330. The dispatcher agrees and, in order to avoid dangerous approaches, sends another liner to the 350 train. In 13.00, the crew of MH17 asks permission to deviate twenty nautical miles to the left for weather reasons. Dispatcher permits. After that, the board asks if the 340 train is available. The dispatcher temporarily rejects the request, indicating while to remain on 330. In 13.19.53 (according to radar data), the board was in the 3,6 nautical mile from the center line of the L980 route. That is, deviated from the course. The dispatcher instructs the board to establish a direct course to the RND waypoint due to the presence of other traffic. The liner team acknowledges receipt of instructions in 13.19.56. This was the last thing the dispatcher heard from the crew. Four seconds later, on 13.20.00, the dispatcher sends the board permission to control the motion control after the RND waypoint immediately to the TIKNA point, but does not receive a response. ”
According to analysts of RSI, one of the reasons for the increased interest in media coverage of the death of the Boeing 777 was its deviation from the usual route to the north and the span over the territory controlled by the DPR militia forces. And also the fact that the explanation of the reasons for this contradict each other.
Evaluation of military infrastructure in the area of the death of Boeing 777
The military grouping involved in the ATO in the east of Ukraine consisted of units of the armed forces and territorial defense of Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs (police and national guard units), the State Border Service of Ukraine, the SBU and the State Guard Department. According to the statement of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, as of August, the grouping reached 50 000 people.
According to the data provided by the Chief of the Main Operational Directorate, Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartapolov, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, at a special briefing on the crash of the MH21 flight on July 17, on the day of the crash of the Malaysian Boeing 777, the APU air defense group near the Project Team of Unarte-19 division of the complex "Buk-M1". “In the morning of the same day, near the settlement Zaroshchynskoye, which is 50 kilometers east of Donetsk and eight kilometers south of Shakhtersk, the Buk battery was discovered. Representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense also reported that on the day of the death of the Malaysian Boeing, they had fixed work on several radars of the Ukrainian battery of the Buk-М1 air defense system and the subsequent redeployment from the area of the Zaroshchinsky point closer to Donetsk.
Attention is drawn to the fact that the militias do not and did not have their own planes and that there is no military need to form a grouping of air defense systems in this area. In addition, in the absence of funds for the ATO just move such a large amount of equipment, without giving her any task, it is meaningless. The second aspect of this question is that only a very high military leadership can do this.
According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, by July 17, the intensity of the work of Ukrainian 9-18 “Kupol-M1” radar stations of the Buk anti-aircraft complex increased to the maximum. June 15 involved seven stations, July 16 eight, and July 17 nine. Since July 18, work intensity has dropped dramatically.
Two questions arise. For what tasks were the SAMs deployed to this point? Why at this time increased the activity of the radar, which are part of the air defense system, what they were looking for in the sky?
As reported by 7 in July, the Minister of Defense of the Luhansk People's Republic, Igor Plotnitsky, representatives of the people's militia of the LNR seized a military plane of the Ukrainian Air Force. It was about the Su-25 attack aircraft, which "is being renovated and will soon be able to serve the republic's militiamen." Other reports about this aircraft and the possibility of its combat use have been reported. Also there was no information about the presence of aviation in the DPR forces, especially about its use.
Did not find confirmation of the message of the Ukrainian side that the militia has a Buk-М1 air defense missile system capable of destroying air targets in the range of heights and speeds similar to the Boeing 777. Even the Ukrainian authorities themselves refused accusations that the airliner could have been shot down by those captured by the militias in Avdeevka air defense missile system.
In the first hours after the disaster, the adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs, Anton Gerashchenko, said that the authorities had recorded the presence of the Buk installation in the militia, which was moving “in the area of the cities of Torez and Snezhnoye”. However, the same evening, a source in the leadership of the ATO said that the rebels in the south-east of Ukraine did not have weapons capable of shooting down an airplane at a height above 10 kilometers.
The death of the Boeing 777 as a result of the use of aircraft armament could only follow from the armed forces of the party to the conflict, which has combat aircraft, an aerodrome-technical network and navigation equipment, as well as trained personnel. It should be noted that the DPR forces did not have either one or the other.
Evaluation of the mechanism for the adoption of military-political management decisions that entailed the destruction of a civilian aircraft, and the structure of command and control in the area of the antiterrorist operation (ATO) by the Ukrainian authorities (according to theinsider.ua)
The Law of Ukraine of 31 of May 2005 of the Year No. 2600-IV (with amendments and additions) “On Combating Terrorism” is based, in particular, on the principle of unity of command in guiding the forces and means used for conducting antiterrorist operations. According to the law, the chief of the anti-terrorist operation is the first deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine, who is also the head of the anti-terrorist center of the special services. It is under his command that all units of other security agencies that have anti-terrorist units are transferred: the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Border Service, the Ministry of Defense, the State Guard Directorate, as well as officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other central authorities, who are coordinated to delegate to the counterterrorism headquarters.
Information on the activities of the ATO headquarters, which is held in the Donbass, is classified as state secrets. Any interest from journalists or the public to the leadership of the ATO causes an extremely painful reaction from the ATO and the competent authorities.
Coordination of all security and civilian agencies involved in the ATO is carried out by the Anti-Terrorism Center (ATC) under the Security Service of Ukraine. The ATC has its headquarters, which at the time of the death of Boeing led the fighting in the Donbass, and the Interdepartmental Coordination Commission (IWC) of the ATC, coordinating activities in the ATO area.
For the direct day-to-day management of the ATO and control of the situation in its area, the operational headquarters of the ATO operates, the key role in which belongs to the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
The first head of the ATC in a real armed conflict in the Donbass and the paralysis of the authorities was and. about. the head of this structure, Vitaly Tsyganok, appointed to the post of March 1. July 7 Petro Poroshenko appointed as head of the ATC Vasyl Gritsak. Perhaps this appointment meant the refusal of the leadership of the Security Service of Ukraine from claims to the actual leadership of the fighting in the ATO zone. From this point on, the main responsibility for their conduct finally fell on the military, namely the General Headquarters of the Armed Forces and its chief, Victor Muzhenko. Since June, the role of the ICC as a coordinating body has significantly decreased, while at the same time the role of the “small headquarters” - the operational headquarters of the ATO, in which the main role is played by Victor Muzhenko, Vasily Gritsak, Sergey Yarovoy and Commander of the National Guard Stepan Poltorak.
Each of them relies on the branched apparatus of its departments, if necessary using the direct support of ministers. For example, the deputy Poltorak Nikolay Balan, who previously held the post of head of the Crimean territorial command of the Interior Ministry’s troops, is responsible for equipping the National Guard under the ATO zone with equipment and weapons. In this case, constant control over the activities of the National Guard under the ATO zone is carried out personally by Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. Thus, in the absence of a clear regulation of the competencies of command and control structures for fighting in the ATO zone, there are signs of “controlled chaos” and a desire to avoid personal responsibility for the orders given.
At the same time, in the armed forces of any state there is a clear system of official hierarchy of decision-making and return of combat orders. Especially if units and subunits of various types of aircraft are involved in the combat zone.
In this case, they used both ground defense units providing air reconnaissance and information at command posts, as well as aviation units, including not only combat aircraft and their crews, but also a large number of ground personnel, including navigators of guidance, spotters, airfield support staff, etc.
It is logical to assume that the decision on the combat use of various types of military force, especially when combat operations are carried out by subunits of various law enforcement agencies, is authorized to be taken exclusively by an official who has authority over the troops under his command and armed formations. That is, the top management of the ATO.
Analyzing the consequences of the death of Boeing 777, it is necessary to answer the question: who got the benefit in this situation and which side suffered losses?
As for the victims, they are the DNR, the Russian Federation and, oddly enough, Malaysia. The latter, in addition to real human sacrifices, suffered economic damage - Malaysian Airlines shares fell 18 July by 11,1 percent. Malaysia Airlines has been working in the minus for several years already, since the beginning of 2011, the losses have exceeded 4,5 billion ringgits (1,4 billion dollars). Over the past nine months, its market value has decreased by more than 40 percent.
“The US security services have already played off a similar scenario with the South Korean Boeing, shot down by a Soviet fighter in 1983,”
The company and, accordingly, the country-owner suffered significant reputational losses in terms of the attractiveness of their service to tourists. Statements by the Malaysian side about the available intelligence on the causes of the death of Boeing 777 and the need to conduct an objective investigation do not find the proper response from the world community. Malaysia no one hears.
The DPR has become the main culprit in the catastrophe in the eyes of the world community, and the condemnation of the republic also affected Russia as an “accomplice of the terrorists”.
At the same time, it is obvious that the death of the Boeing 777 brought great benefit to the new authorities in Kiev, who needed international financial and military-technical assistance, political and informational support in order to reverse the unfavorable operational situation in Donbass and stay at the helm. Most of the benefits received and continues to receive the Ukrainian "war party", including:
high-ranking military and representatives of law enforcement agencies involved in the ATO and interested in continuing the fighting because of the desire to cash in on the supply of troops;
nationalist deputies who play on the feelings of a poorly educated electorate, as exemplified by Oleg Lyashko;
oligarchs, a prominent representative of which is the head of the Dnipropetrovsk region billionaire Igor Kolomoisky - one of the most powerful leaders of the "war party".
Forcing up tension allows the oligarchs of Ukraine to actively redistribute property belonging to the clan of the “Donetsk group”, which is unfriendly to them.
For the long months of bloody confrontation in the east of Ukraine, oligarchic circles in the person of Kolomoisky and others have taken strong positions and are striving to strengthen them.
One of the tasks of the “war party” is to stop the advancement of social protests deep into Ukraine. The main goal is money. Many oligarchs have their own economic interests in the military sphere.
In the Donetsk region, the most industrialized region that has been a donor of the budget of Ukraine for 20 for years, the assets owned by Rinat Akhmetov, who was recently called the “master of Donbass”, prevail. Who will be able to quickly seize assets in the Donbas and Luhansk region will be the true owner of these regions.
Igor Kolomoisky said: “The state today is simply obliged to confiscate property, factories, shares of separatist supporters. Everyone who financed and continues to finance terror in the country. ” This is the main task of Kolomoisky.
He proposes to transfer the confiscated property to a special joint stock company, in which the shareholders will be participants of the ATO, veterans, and relatives of the victims. According to Forbes, thanks to the financial support of Kolomoisky Oblast, she created four armed units of her own: two battalions of the special forces Dnepr-1 and Dnepr-2, as well as two battalions of territorial defense. Pay volunteers from 1260 dollars per month. For comparison: the average salary in Ukraine is 272 dollars (according to the State Statistics Service of the country for April 2014), about the same amount is received by an ordinary contract soldier serving in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
On the fighters Kolomoisky respectfully even their opponents. “I would not call them (“ Dnepr ”) a gang. They can be called a private army. They do not hesitate to advertise their affiliation. They are well armed. They are the most organized, the most motivated and the most aggressive ”(from an interview with Roman Lyagin, the chairman of the Central Election Commission of the Donetsk People's Republic). Former DPR Prime Minister Alexander Boroday argued that the republic "is in a state of war with the group and troops of Kolomoisky." It was these troops that played an important psychological role: at the very beginning of the ATO, when the Ukrainian army was falling apart, the Dnipro battalion looked like the only real force opposing the DPR.
In 2014, Kolomoisky played a win-win game: he first started the creation of volunteer battalions, promised rewards for the heads of the separatists, began to pursue them in his area and for some couple of months in the eyes of the townsfolk turned into the main defender of Ukraine, who can now afford to speak with accusations against other oligarchs and offering to expropriate their property. For comparison: the oligarch Sergey Taruta, who was appointed simultaneously with the Kolomoisky, who inherited the problematic Donetsk region, did not show himself in any way. He did not assemble his battalion, did not declare war on the separatists, did not appoint an award for the head of the field commander of the DPR Alexander Mozhayev, known by the nickname Babai. As a result, he was dismissed. The longer the ATO lasts, the more the Ukrainians are disappointed in the new president, and the more influential is Kolomoisky.
His activities on the day of the death of Boeing 777 and in previous ones should be the subject of close attention. This was stated by the Vice-Speaker of the State Duma, Secretary of the General Council of United Russia, Sergei Neverov: “It is worth remembering the fact that oligarch Igor Kolomoisky owned a number of Ukrainian airlines: Ukraine’s International Airlines, Dniproavia, Aerosvit, but even more interesting - they are fully funded by the work of dispatching services of Dnepropetrovsk, responsible for the wiring of the tragic flight, as well as to a large extent the technical support of dispatching services throughout Ukraine. ” In October 2014, the Independent Netherlands Political Party appealed to the International Criminal Court in The Hague with the aim of opening a criminal case against Kolomoisky.
Another beneficiary is the North Atlantic Alliance, for the leadership of which, in the person of former Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and Jens Stoltenberg, who replaced him, the death of Boeing 777 was one of the reasons for pursuing the policy of NATO expansion to the east. In an interview with the French edition of Midi Libre, Rasmussen called the plane crash that took place on July 17 in eastern Ukraine a human tragedy, which is also a war crime, and said that the alliance has numerous data indicating that the separatists supported by Russia are guilty in it. However, NATO leaders prefer to avoid evidencing the facts supporting their statements.
The main benefit of the consequences of the death of Boeing 777 was extracted by the administration of Barack Obama, who influenced the position of the heads of European states and the EU to apply regular sanctions against Russia, the introduction of which had been stalled for several months. On July 26, Barack Obama told CNBC TV: “Sadly, the crash of the Malaysian Airlines plane, which may well have been shot down by non-state actors who received extremely powerful weapons from the Russian government, could result in our European partners will toughen their position. ”
As is known, the Russian Federation and the EU have suffered from economic sanctions.
The main result of the death of Boeing was the change in attitudes towards Russia on the world stage and the further isolation of the country. On the other hand, Kiev secretly demanded protection from such an “aggressive” neighbor, therefore the EU and the US have accelerated its integration into the western space.
The technology that the US successfully uses in such cases is network and contactless wars, ensuring the seizure of territory, establishing control over it without the use of conventional, classical weapons, and, if possible, without any direct aggression. A similar scenario, the American security services have already played with the South Korean Boeing, shot down by a Soviet fighter in 1983 year. Then it strengthened the isolation of the USSR from the world community and contributed to the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
According to the experts of the RSI analytical group, the main beneficiary of the death of Boeing 777 is the Anglo-Saxon world: the United States and the United Kingdom.
At the same time, the United States has already gained the benefit, regardless of what the results of the commission of inquiry come to. The benefit lies in the economic pressure on the Russian Federation and on European countries that feel retaliatory Russian sanctions. As a result of the weakening of the economic potential of the Old World and the creation there of another hotbed of tension, the United States is increasing its influence on the world community.
Final conclusions
Before the death of Boeing 777, the information about the situation in Ukraine came down from the front pages of the international media. The Kiev authorities suffered military and political defeat due to their inability to suppress the resistance of the militia of the DPR and LPR, the Western countries were increasingly delayed in making important decisions on this conflict. Financial and military-technical assistance to Ukraine was delayed, and prospects for obtaining it under difficult conditions began to take shape.
The catastrophe of Boeing 777 and the imposition of responsibility for it on the DPR and Russia were a powerful informational reason for a new round of escalation of the conflict and a reason for Ukraine to turn to Western aid.
The death of Boeing 777 is a planned military-political action. The choice of aircraft did not accidentally fall on Malaysia, located far from the scene of the incident, weak politically and politically, unable to defend its interests. A country that has recently ceased to be a colony of Great Britain (1957) and is still under its great influence. The investigation of state of emergency is significantly different in all respects from the similar ones that occurred in the past.
The catastrophe contributed to the introduction of sectoral sanctions against the Russian Federation and the creation in the international information space of the image of Russia and its leader as accomplices of terrorism.
The situation with the death of Boeing 777 led to the creation of an information curtain that distracts attention from the actions of the Ukrainian oligarchs, primarily Igor Kolomoisky, to seize and redistribute property in the southeast.
Direct legal responsibility for the death of Boeing, according to experts of the analytical group, are the supreme leaders of the ATO.
The death of Boeing 777 is a planned action that is geopolitical in nature. It fits into the general concept of the policy of the US administration, which aims to achieve a unipolar world and escalate aggression against the Russian Federation, reduce the economic potential of the country, stop the growth of its influence in the world.
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