"Leaked" Putin or not "leaked" Novorossia?
Enough time has already passed to soberly evaluate past negotiations in Minsk and to give an objective assessment of the signed and oral agreements. Nevertheless, even here, at the "VO", I see a heat of emotions that are more typical of high school students. "Putinsleyl", "the contract about anything", "as soon as the Bandera was squeezed into the pot, so immediately and negotiations" ... Loud cries, and stupid. Let's just try together to figure out what really happened in Minsk. And what exactly is Putin?
Before starting the analysis, please note the following.
1. Germany and France are the main donors to the EU, and their political weight in the union is leading. The strife between these countries will bury the EU faster than Greece’s exit from the eurozone. Actually, that is why they, and not the Poles and Balts, came to negotiate.
2. At the end of January, the DLNR (I specifically wrote this: Donetsk-Luhansk People's Republic, why, see below) announces mobilization, which is designed to call about 100 thousands of people into the ranks of the Supreme National Council (Armed Forces of New Russia).
3. Russia needs Ukraine that is not divided into parts (this does not correspond to the interests of Russia). This is the main point for us. And we will return to it repeatedly.
4. The economic losses incurred by the EU are losses from political decisions imposed on it regarding the imposition of sanctions that no one is going to compensate.
5. The IMF is ready to allocate Ukraine 40 billion dollars in the event of peace in Ukraine. For the term 4 of the year.
6. The current fascist ideology in Ukraine is a consequence of the political culture of Western Ukraine. Poroshenko, if this definition is appropriate, is a moderate fascist, although I myself do not know how the term "moderate" can be applied to fascism, but the rest are clearly radical fascists.
Since we live in Russia, and Putin is our legally elected and legitimate president who acts in the interests of the state, we will consider the results of Minsk exclusively through the prism of Russia. This does not mean “hurray-patriotism”, it means that almost all points will be evaluated in terms of benefits for our country.
Based on the above items, we begin to analyze the Minsk agreements.
So, the first thing you need to pay attention to is the declaration of the President of the Russian Federation, the President of Ukraine, the President of the French Republic and the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany in support of the set of measures for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements adopted by 12 February 2015 of the year.
The declaration can be read here: http://news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/4803. For the lazy, here’s the text below:
“President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, President of the French Republic Francois Hollande and Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Angela Merkel confirm full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. They are firmly convinced that there is no alternative to an exclusively peaceful settlement. They are fully prepared to take any possible measures, either individually or jointly for this purpose.
In this context, the leaders endorse the set of measures to implement the Minsk Agreements, adopted and signed in Minsk on February 12 2015 by everyone who also signed the Minsk Protocol on September 5, 2014, and the Minsk memorandum on September 19, 2014. Leaders will contribute to this process and use their influence on the relevant parties to facilitate the implementation of this set of measures.
Germany and France will provide technical support to rebuild the banking sector in areas affected by the conflict, possibly through the creation of an international mechanism to facilitate social benefits.
The leaders share the conviction that strengthening cooperation between the European Union, Ukraine and Russia will help resolve this crisis. To this end, they support the continuation of trilateral talks between the European Union, Ukraine and Russia on energy issues in order to take steps to develop the "winter gas package."
They also support tripartite negotiations between the European Union, Ukraine and Russia in order to work out practical solutions to Russia's concerns regarding the implementation of the Agreement on a deep and comprehensive free trade zone between Ukraine and the European Union.
Leaders remain committed to creating a common humanitarian and economic space from the Atlantic to the Pacific, based on full respect for international law and the principles of the OSCE.
Leaders will remain committed to the implementation of the Minsk agreements. To this end, they agreed to establish a control mechanism in the “Norman format,” which will hold meetings at regular intervals, usually at the level of senior officials representing the foreign ministries. ”
Let's immediately try to understand what the high sides agreed on. The first thing that catches the eye: everyone unanimously acknowledges that only a peaceful settlement is the only possible and acceptable one. Comments are not required. It is the path of peaceful regulation, which involves negotiations. And please pay attention to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. For Russia, this is important, very important.
The second point: the above four leaders will use their influence to implement a set of measures aimed at a peaceful settlement. Poroshenko is dependent not only on the United States; he goes to ask for money in Europe. So that the implementation of the complex of measures will be monitored from all sides, and find the next 100500 tanks and special forces of the RF Armed Forces will be extremely problematic. By the way, there is an excellent article about how our special forces differ from the US special forces (http://warfiles.ru/show-72049-specnaz-rossii-i-ssha-v-chem-raznica.html), I recommend reading.
Third. Germany and France provide technical assistance to the restoration of the banking system in “conflict-affected areas”. This means that technical specialists (well, intelligence, wherever without it) of Germany and France will not only control the TARGET use of Ukraine (payment of social benefits, pensions, etc.) in the DLNR, but also act as guarantors of the cessation of shelling. It’s one thing when the residents of Donbass die for the EU (for them this is a statistic, no matter how cynical it may sound), and it’s quite another when their citizens are already dying. In addition, non-payment by Kiev of socially guaranteed pensions, benefits will lead to the fact that the IMF may refuse to credit. Poroshenko, without blinking, will deceive Russia, but he will not go to the deception of his creditors, who have their technical specialists in the DLNR, and part-time observers (besides the OSCE). Scary to him.
Next, about the "winter gas package." We sell gas. And this is a fact. This kind of insurance, if you want. The EU understands perfectly well that nobody is going to cancel the principle of “pay and take”. Nobody is going to sponsor Ukraine either. So that the EU has secured itself for the winter period, it is necessary to negotiate. We can safely assume that if Ukraine “will act obediently,” it will be given a loan (it is important to understand that they will give a loan) for the purchase of gas in the Russian Federation. And nothing else.
The free trade zone between the EU and Ukraine is now (as declared) obliged to take into account the interests of the Russian Federation. But negotiations can be conducted for a long time, or quickly. It all depends on how soon the EU accepts the conditions of the Russian Federation. Please note that the opinion of Ukraine is of no interest to anyone here. Yes, Ukraine will trade, but with an eye to Russia.
That has come to one of the main reasons: the general humanitarian and economic space from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. This is precisely the very thing for which the fascists from the USA brought the fascists to power in Ukraine. Do not give it to create. If Europe, while signing an agreement on a trade zone with Ukraine, was simply a “shit” of Russia, then at the time of Yanukovych’s removal from power, the main trade turnover of Ukraine was with Russia. And our standards are different. Ukraine naively believed that it would have European abundance on the shelves. The fact that she herself will deliver to the EU, somehow not thought. This is an example of the emotional component - there is a Wishlist, and the ways to achieve it are not considered. Familiar trap? And again, what steps has the Russian Federation taken? Yes, just closed the trade border with Ukraine. Europe hoped to get a new market, naively believing that Ukraine would sell something to Russia, and immediately give this money to Europe. Maybe it would burn out. Or maybe not, events began to evolve in a different scenario. And now we will not be engaged in fortune telling. But the creation of such a space (from ocean to ocean), taking into account the interests of Russia, is in our interests. And in this space, the war in Ukraine is clearly superfluous. There is no free, and most importantly, calm trade, while the war is on. So the EU is also interested in the world. And who is not interested? Find the answer yourself, or tell? For the clue, I will only say the words: liquefied gas.
The last paragraph on the control mechanism. Do not find it strange: if Russia is an aggressor country, then you shouldn’t have to take it to the bodies that control compliance with the peace plan?
General provisions. There is not a single word about Russia as a party to the conflict. There is not a single word about the separatists, terrorists and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine. There is not a single word about the Crimea. But Russia acts as a regulatory authority. This is an indirect recognition of the fact that the entire past year, the EU has blatantly lied to its citizens, and introduced sanctions in vain.
Declaration considered. Now we have a document that says what should be monitored and how (http://news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/4804).
In order to save space, I will not bring it in full. Let us briefly discuss each item. The numbering of the items in the “Set of measures” coincides with the commentary.
1. Ceasefire - no comment.
2. Removal of heavy weapons. I ask you to pay attention to who will control this process: “This process will be facilitated by the OSCE with the support of a trilateral contact group.” And in the trilateral contact group there is Russia. And now, “silence” by Kiev’s failure to comply with this clause, as well as the fulfillment of 1 clause, as the EU representatives have done before, will fail.
3. Monitoring is carried out from the FIRST day. In other words, the deadline for the cease-fire (signed by 12, and the ceasing - by 15) is necessary for the arrival of OSCE representatives. We didn’t have time, we didn’t arrive, then dismiss the representatives of the DLNR about talking about the violation of the truce. We use satellites, information from which this document RECOGNIZES true. So, and nothing else. Break - more expensive.
4. The document makes Rada to work on the adoption of a law that determines the order of elections in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and the future regime of these regions. This means recognition of the right to vote in these areas, including in the Rada. The issue of control of this item is not worth it, since laws passed by the Rada are published freely. The question is that this law should suit the DLNR, and in the Rada such “handsome men” like Lyashko, Semenchenko. And the rest are not much different in their views. So - there will be no law, there will be no elections. There will be no credits. And the law, I repeat, should be arranged by the DLNR. Now it is a headache for Poroshenko.
5. Cancel the prosecution of the VSN fighters, and please also note that there is no mention of "separatists", "terrorists". Since the fascists are in power now, they are unlikely to persecute the “Aydar” fighters. But to legitimize the abolition of the prosecution of the militia-if you please.
6. Within five days to exchange hostages and held illegally on the principle of "all for all." Pay attention: we are talking about a united state. There is no word "prisoners of war." No war, no prisoners of war. Nadezhda Savchenko is not included in this list. Firstly, she is not on the territory of Ukraine, and secondly, she committed a crime against the citizens of Russia, and is under investigation for this very reason. All talk about the "return" from Poroshenko no more than PR.
7. Fulfilling this item means breaking the blockade. I don’t want to draw analogs and parallels, but the blockade imposed by Kiev against their fellow citizens smacks of genocide. In addition, it allows unimpeded transportation of humanitarian aid, avoiding the cries from the junta to Russia.
8. Restoration of the banking network and the provision of social benefits. Responsible - Kiev.
9. Control over the state border. We read carefully: ONLY after the elections to the DLNR and the “comprehensive political settlement”. The latter includes constitutional reform. Responsibility of Ukraine. Moreover, the specified period - until the end of 2015 year. That's just after that - control over the border.
10. The withdrawal of all mercenaries under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarm illegal groups. And who are the illegal groups? In the DLNR, these are those who do not recognize the power existing in the republics. Those or not, or very little. But in Kiev here are the Pravosek 17 battalions! Let him disarm! Responsible - again, Kiev. It means that the APU must take measures to disarm Yarosh and his ilk.
11. Constitutional reform with the entry into force of the new Constitution of Ukraine by the end of 2015 of the year, taking into account the peculiarities of “individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with representatives of these regions”. And the adoption of permanent legislation (remember, it was the summer of 2014 of the year: Poroshenko adopts one law, and then repeals the first law with the second law) on the special status of individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Kiev is responsible. And in order to fulfill this point, he will have to negotiate with the DLNR. It is to negotiate.
12. It fixes the status of the fact that the laws that Kiev MUST adopt on the basis of the Minsk meeting are coordinated with the DLNR.
13. It means almost daily monitoring and discussion of all points of the “Set of measures” with a tripartite contact group.
Notes still give.
Such measures in accordance with the law "On the special procedure for local self-government in certain districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions" include the following:
- exemption from punishment, harassment and discrimination of persons related to events that took place in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions;
- the right to language self-determination;
- The participation of local authorities in the appointment of heads of prosecutors and courts in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions;
- the possibility for central executive bodies to conclude agreements with the relevant local authorities on the economic, social and cultural development of individual regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions;
- The state provides support for the socio-economic development of individual regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions;
- assistance from the central authorities of cross-border cooperation in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions with regions of the Russian Federation;
- the creation of detachments of the people's militia according to the decision of local councils in order to maintain public order in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions;
- The powers of deputies of local councils and officials elected at early elections, appointed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by this law, cannot be terminated early.
The document was signed by the participants of the trilateral contact group: Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini, the second president of Ukraine, LD D. Kuchma, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Ukraine M.Yu. Zurabov, A.V. Zakharchenko, I.V. Carpenter.
Well, where is the "Putinslil"? Remove emotions and see: Russia, together with Germany and France, controls the fulfillment by Kiev of decisions taken in Minsk. Who benefits from these solutions? First of all, Russia and Novorossia. New Russia receives a truce, the status of separate territories, receives expanded powers and independence from Kiev. Kiev, with all this, retains the formal authority over the DLNR, and how many duties on it.
In a few words I will say why the collapse of Ukraine is unprofitable for Russia. If you look at the map of Europe, then our natural ally, the fraternal people of Belarus, act as a reef to Europe, and even to NATO, which makes Belarus extremely vulnerable from a military point of view. Having returned Ukraine entirely to the orbit of Russia's interests, we will not only secure Belarus, we will sharply reduce the contact of our borders with NATO. After all, it is not a secret to you that Ukraine, with its current status, is a direct corridor to our borders. If someone believes howls about NATO's love of peace, then what are you doing on this site? It may sound cynical, but Ukraine and Belarus are a sanitary zone. This is the time required by our air defense in the event of a military conflict with NATO. So who benefits from the integrity of Ukraine? Answer yourself.
Now the second aspect. America needs control over the EU, we need a war that would write off or cancel all their debts. It is for this reason that the Nazis led to power in Ukraine. It is America that opposes the Minsk agreements and will accuse Russia of all mortal sins. Read the agreement again. Nowhere is Russia mentioned as a party to the conflict, as an aggressor. Yatsenyuk’s recent statements that it will do without Russian gas are public relations, no more. Russia, having pulled Germany and France as the controlling countries (if the United States decides to bribe, as they usually do, now the amount of bribe increases four to five times, because you have to pay extra for the risk that someone will let it slip), and now the US is harder will push its policy. The wedge is not yet a wedge, wedge, into the camp of the West. Also note: Crimea is not mentioned anywhere. Europe has already de facto recognized the entry of the Crimea into Russia. It remains to wait until it will be done de jure.
Why do you think you broke off Kosovo so easily? Because Serbia is surrounded by the EU and NATO. Russia could not help the army (far away, logistics is bad), and without the support of the army, diplomacy cannot always "objectively convince of its rightness." In the case of the Crimea, the situation is the same: the Armed Forces are at hand, and politically - a referendum is held, so our Foreign Ministry has a strong position. Both with legal and with a power position. Diplomacy without military support is weak.
I repeat the question: what has Putin merged? Putin merged the United States, because the EU negotiated with Moscow! Putin leaked Poroshenko, because Poroshenko will not (objectively, look at things) "push through" everything that he signed! Therefore, Poroshenko will be removed. They will remove their own, the fascists, who are more radical. And as soon as Poroshenko is removed (read, the legitimate power will disappear), DLNR as part of ONE country will be able to make anti-Maidan (100000 call-up person, if anyone has forgotten).
To break the vector of development of Ukraine, it is necessary to change the now dominant "Svidomo-Fascist" ideology of Westerners in power, and this can only be done by residents of one state. Western Ukraine imposes its ideology on the East. It will be the opposite! And for this, too, we need a united Ukraine. Since, as soon as the DLNR is separated, there will be a war, and Ukraine will be supported by NATO. So Putin merged?
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