Libyan omission

19


Gaddafi lost. For some time he may be hiding somewhere, continuing the bloodshed and agony of his regime. But it will change little. The main problems of the opponents of Gaddafi will arise after the final victory.

The doom of the former dictator is not due to the fact that he was ousted from the capital, they say, to the south. The military factor is important, but not decisive. Gaddafi is devoid of resources. First of all money. His accounts in the banks of the world are blocked, a large amount of cash is not and can not be by definition. With each shot, with each rocket, its combat potential decreases. Therefore, now and in the near future, one can only count on the fanaticism of the fighters of the elite brigade and theoretically on their tribe in the city of Sirte.

The oppositionists may be inclined to exaggerate their successes, but nobody writes to the colonel, not even his best friend, Hugo Chavez. The leader of the Jamahiriya was in the labyrinth, from which there is no way out. He was left by more or less influential supporters, some generals chose to cease resistance in exchange for a quiet life. So it was in Iraq, Tunisia and Egypt. Moreover, the rebel attack on the Bab Al-Azizia complex was led by servicemen from the UAE and Qatar special forces, the London newspaper The Evening Standard reported. According to one of their officers, "this is an Arab affair, so it’s right that the Arab allies came to the aid of the Libyans."

Allegedly, time to surrender, but the dictator continues a hopeless struggle. There are several reasons for such irrational behavior. Let us dwell on two, as we see, most likely.

At firstso do the majority of authoritarian leaders in the current Arab spring. Mubarak remained in Egypt, despite the fact that his inner circle strongly pushed him into exile. The president of Yemen, Saleh, after being wounded, was forced to go to Saudi Arabia, but has not yet renounced power. Assad in Syria continues to brutally fight with his opponents. It's not just the thirst for power. Pictures of the crowd, joyfully welcoming their leaders, gave them the illusion that the citizens, as before, were loyal and loving them, and problems were created by groups of extremists and mercenaries of hostile states. It is necessary to show strength - and committed citizens will sweep them from their native land. In addition, this is constantly convincing the immediate environment. Surprisingly, the more crowded protest demonstrations become, the number of armed opponents grows, their consolidation increases, the more uncontrolled territories appear, the stronger the dictatorship’s confidence that they are doing everything correctly. And the fate of others does not convince them of anything, on the contrary, it adds their firmness to the thought that all this is not about them.

Second, the Gaddafi cornered. After issuing a warrant of the International Criminal Court, he simply has nowhere to go. Even the best friends will think three times before allowing him to come to this or that country. You can endlessly curse American imperialism, as Hugo Chavez does, because oil from Venezuela comes in for unloved dollars in the United States. And the leader of Caracas does not want to fall under the action of international sanctions. And so with any country, and no one will give any guarantees. Radovan Karadzic was sure that he would not be touched after the forced voluntary resignation; one can only imagine his disappointment when everything turned into a long-term search and inevitable arrest. So, Gaddafi will fight to the end, and detective story with his detention will continue for some time.

Already, the world is busy with two extremely important problems: how events will develop within the victorious forces and who will benefit from the fall of Gaddafi.
Regarding the first question, there is quite a lot of pessimism. Iraq is also mentioned that there is no unity among the oppositionists. Even a single military command was lacking, and some units acted in isolation. And, given the tribal structure of Libya, many imply a long civil confrontation, in the words of Thomas Hobbes, the bellum omnium contra omnes is the war of all against all. To this should be added the lack of experience in political governance under democratic conditions, the weakness of state institutions, and the like.

Undoubtedly, there are certain risks of an undesirable scenario, but they should not be overestimated. The first is the possibility of extremists coming to power, for example, al-Qaida. Islamic radicals do exist among the opponents of Gaddafi, but they are not the leading force. They do not need a state - except the territory as a springboard for the further spread of its expansion. As it happens in Afghanistan. The Libyan opposition seeks normal relations with the international community, the support of which it received. Therefore, the radicals, if they try to break through to the helm, are likely to be rejected, and the West will become the first and main helper in this.

The second risk is the possible disintegration of the country, in 1951 Libya gained independence as a federation of three territories - Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan in the south. It is unnecessary to speak about the separation of the last, desolate land with a few oasis villages. There are certain problems with Cyrenaica, which was the center of the opposition to the Gaddafi regime. There have always been jealous of Tripolitania. But such regional rivalry is inherent in many countries. However, the Transitional National Council initially acted as an organ of the whole country, without putting forward any separatist program. Note that in terms of religion, Libya, in contrast to, say, Iraq and Syria, is quite homogeneous. For the entire existence of an independent state, a serious separatist movement has not been noted. Not seen its manifestations in the process of dealing with Gaddafi.

And one more factor. The main wealth of the country is hydrocarbons. But in order to receive income from them, there must be territorial unity. Oil and gas are extracted in the depths of the country, pipelines must function properly and deliver black liquid gold to the coast to distilleries, and from them to ports with terminals. If the country disintegrates, the whole technological chain will collapse with it. Nobody is interested in this. We can talk only about the change in the distribution of income. But it is a subject of trade and agreements.

Now about who won. The representative of the Libyan state oil company AGOCO, Abdeldzhalil Mayuf, told Bloomberg that Tatneft and Gazpromneft, who previously worked in the Jamahiriya, may have problems with the new government. “We have some political issues with Russia, China and Brazil,” he said, letting us understand what the voting for the UN Security Council resolution 1973 from 17 in March 2011 of the year (the application of sanctions against Gaddafi), in which these countries abstained. Then the rebel representative Ahmed Jehan, who is responsible for restoring the infrastructure in Libya, said: "The question of the cancellation of any contracts is not worth it."

Most experts believe that in reality Russian companies will have to calculate losses. Vladimir Isaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the Vedomosti newspaper that the new Libyan authorities would not forget about the dual position of Russia. However, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said that the Libyan National Transitional Council had already reached an agreement on the preservation of all earlier contracts and the conclusion of new ones. Similar negotiations were held by French President Sarkozy. So, Moscow has clearly indicated that she had chosen the wrong friends at the right moment. Although the restoration of the oil infrastructure will take some (and considerable) time, and yet the West has clearly bypassed Russia on this issue. The Kremlin is paying for its desire to keep the golden middle. And this leads to such a policy, as a result of which losses are growing, and attempts to regain influence on the Arab world are doomed.
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19 comments
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  1. Insurgent
    +4
    17 September 2011 11: 51
    article, Gaddafi would have put things in order long ago everyone knows that the French fought on the side of the rebels, and the British special forces constantly bombed Gaddafi’s army, NATO got there for the sake of money, it made a mess
  2. MaxArt
    +3
    17 September 2011 13: 49
    Our oil industry workers would not have remained in Libya in any case, and there is no difference whether Russia supported the sanctions and the invasion or not. This is a war for oil, and we would be ousted at any outcome, unequivocally and irrevocably, just under a different pretext.
    1. +6
      17 September 2011 20: 49
      Today in the news they showed how the Psovtsy were dribbling from syrte, they poked in there without NATO, one Colonel artillery volley and from a low start the desert race was losing galoshes
    2. Vedic
      +2
      17 September 2011 20: 50
      The United States has always been and remains our enemy.
      Gaddafi was a friend of the USSR until Russia betrayed him, like many of his other former allies. Now everything is dictated there by the USA, but it is not profitable for us.
      1. ballian
        -4
        17 September 2011 23: 59
        Yeah was a wonderful "friend" while he was fed money and weapons. - like "friend"
        To call "the USA" with the terrible word "enemy" is something to be ill with - what is the US hindering you personally with?
        1. 0
          18 September 2011 00: 06
          Go do the Poles ... Suddenly, someone will give money for the occupation of Poland ...
          1. ballian
            -5
            18 September 2011 00: 15
            And, yes, I remembered - Poland personally is something that really bothers you that you are harassed.
            1. +3
              18 September 2011 00: 17
              I don’t, read Roosevelt ... I fuck them ...
              1. ballian
                -4
                18 September 2011 00: 22
                Ahh - so you confessed to whom you work here :)))))
                1. 0
                  18 September 2011 00: 25
                  But there is no need to juggle ... You are like a sharpie and a distributor (see the Cop dictionary) ...
                  I have a Soviet education, unlike you ...
                2. LESHA pancake
                  0
                  18 September 2011 16: 44
                  AND THE FRIENDS OF THE USA AND NATO COME ME WITH ME ATTEMPTING TO US TO PROVE THAT ALL THAT THEY DO IT IT IS CORRECT. IN THE NAME OF DEMOCRACY IT IS POSSIBLE AND IN ANOTHER COUNTRY TO GAME.
        2. Vedic
          +1
          18 September 2011 22: 14
          And in your opinion, did the USSR itself break up? smile I think they helped him a lot. This can be clearly seen in the book by Brzezinski: "The Great Chessboard: American Dominance and Its Geostrategic Imperatives." There, the attitude of this figure to our country is very well described, and he was the national security adviser to the United States, and in fact, all his plans for the destruction of the USSR and the degeneration of the Russian people were almost realized.

          Or missile defense systems in Poland, ballistic missiles in Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and indeed everywhere, aimed at our cities, under the auspices of NATO, which, in your opinion, also have nothing to do with the United States wink shouldn't we be worried? Although, of course, this is being done only for the sake of our own safety, suddenly terrorists attack us, so the "friends" of the United States will immediately protect us.
    3. ballian
      0
      17 September 2011 23: 55

      MaxArt
      Or who make money on the extraction of Libyan oil, you will get it, not the "effective managers" - you are so worried about that? :)))))) I am amused by the local Internet fighters for the rights of oil and gas companies belonging to all sorts of "oligarchs" - Eh, silly - you think that the grandmother is a cat
      Moreover, in your mythology, Gaddaffi does not allow greedy foreigners (and Russians, too) to profit from Libyan oil? Then there is no need to worry doubly. :))))
      Do you at least realize that you have a split consciousness, multiplied by a lack of understanding "why do I need this" :)))))
    4. +1
      18 September 2011 00: 04
      Who prevented our oil workers from recruiting people from the reductions of the GRU and sending them to Gazprom for a long time PMC (private military company for a couple of three divisions) ...
    5. ballian
      -4
      18 September 2011 00: 04

      MaxArt Yesterday, 13: 49
      >> "Our oil workers would not have stayed in Libya anyway, and it makes no difference whether Russia supported the sanctions and the invasion or not. This is a war for oil, and we would have been ousted no matter what the outcome, unambiguously and irrevocably, just under a different pretext."
      __________________________________________________________
      I am amused by the local Internet fighters for the rights of oil and gas companies belonging to all "oligarchs" - Eh, silly - you think that the money who earn on the production of Libyan oil will get you, and not "effective managers" - are you so worried? :)))))
      Moreover, in your mythology, Gaddaffi does not allow greedy foreigners (and Russians, too) to profit from Libyan oil? Then there is no need to worry doubly. :))))
      Do you at least realize that you have a split consciousness, multiplied by a lack of understanding "why do I need this" :)))))
      1. 0
        18 September 2011 00: 12
        The GRU division with all the weapons and equipment, the alliance would suck ... And if there were also a variation on the 5th tactical squadron ... there would be a new descendant of the Cossacks in cafes in Paris and shouting: "quickly" ...
  3. 0
    18 September 2011 18: 39
    Moreover, the rebel attack on the Bab al-Aziziya complex was led by UAE and Qatar special forces, the London newspaper The Evening Standard reported.

    It is not clear what the UAE and Qatar authorities are counting on? Maybe this will not affect them, or given their help in capturing the Bab al-Aziziya complex, the Americans will not sell them?
    "This is an Arab affair, therefore it is correct that the Arab allies came to the aid of the Libyans."

    I didn’t even know that England France and Italy were Arab countries. Here they helped the Libyans, they helped !!!!
  4. +3
    18 September 2011 22: 56
    Mr. Rear Admiral Balian is killing me, he either got his brains fucked up for life, or is it Kashchenko, is it interesting to him that he will throw flowers at the occupants, like liberators?
    1. +2
      18 September 2011 23: 01
      There are four of them working, they will carry this nonsense until they fire them. They are easy to find by pagons.
    2. Marat
      +2
      18 September 2011 23: 07
      It’s right that you take the time and dispute the agents of the enemy. I support you Crazy 2097
      Their comments contain poison - which can get into doubters and poison them
      As far as possible and time, we should all dispute and refute them
  5. Iskra
    0
    19 September 2011 07: 19
    Probably, tactical nuclear weapons will be used against the rebellious cities of Sirte and Beni Walid. Such intelligence comes from Brussels. It is entirely possible if everything breaks off at NATO and they are fucked up with tactical nuclear weapons.
  6. Patriot
    +1
    19 September 2011 09: 48
    Hurray, comrades. Hello everyone,
    Well, we waited for real confirmation that these PPS oppositionists did not represent any military power.
    Islamic mercenaries, a military company and the French legion did all the dirty work for NATO countries with the connivance of the UN and air support of Western armies from the air.
    "The troops of M. Gaddafi captured 17 British and French" mercenaries "
    Soldiers loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi captured 17 "foreign mercenaries" who were assisting the army of the Transitional National Council in the assault on the city of Beni Walid. According to Colonel Musa Ibrahim's spokesman, technical specialists and military consultants were taken prisoner. "Most of them are French. The group of mercenaries also included two Britons, a native of Qatar and a representative of one of the Asian countries," Ibrahim said in an interview with Syrian Arrai TV on September 18. Read completely: http://top.rbc.ru/special/libya/19/09/2011/616068.shtml

    I’m only afraid that this fact will never reach the Western Erectorate, intimidated by Alcaida through its media.

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