Libyan omission

Gaddafi lost. For some time he may be hiding somewhere, continuing the bloodshed and agony of his regime. But it will change little. The main problems of the opponents of Gaddafi will arise after the final victory.

The doom of the former dictator is not due to the fact that he was ousted from the capital, they say, to the south. The military factor is important, but not decisive. Gaddafi is devoid of resources. First of all money. His accounts in the banks of the world are blocked, a large amount of cash is not and can not be by definition. With each shot, with each rocket, its combat potential decreases. Therefore, now and in the near future, one can only count on the fanaticism of the fighters of the elite brigade and theoretically on their tribe in the city of Sirte.

The oppositionists may be inclined to exaggerate their successes, but nobody writes to the colonel, not even his best friend, Hugo Chavez. The leader of the Jamahiriya was in the labyrinth, from which there is no way out. He was left by more or less influential supporters, some generals chose to cease resistance in exchange for a quiet life. So it was in Iraq, Tunisia and Egypt. Moreover, the rebel attack on the Bab Al-Azizia complex was led by servicemen from the UAE and Qatar special forces, the London newspaper The Evening Standard reported. According to one of their officers, "this is an Arab affair, so it’s right that the Arab allies came to the aid of the Libyans."

Allegedly, time to surrender, but the dictator continues a hopeless struggle. There are several reasons for such irrational behavior. Let us dwell on two, as we see, most likely.

At firstso do the majority of authoritarian leaders in the current Arab spring. Mubarak remained in Egypt, despite the fact that his inner circle strongly pushed him into exile. The president of Yemen, Saleh, after being wounded, was forced to go to Saudi Arabia, but has not yet renounced power. Assad in Syria continues to brutally fight with his opponents. It's not just the thirst for power. Pictures of the crowd, joyfully welcoming their leaders, gave them the illusion that the citizens, as before, were loyal and loving them, and problems were created by groups of extremists and mercenaries of hostile states. It is necessary to show strength - and committed citizens will sweep them from their native land. In addition, this is constantly convincing the immediate environment. Surprisingly, the more crowded protest demonstrations become, the number of armed opponents grows, their consolidation increases, the more uncontrolled territories appear, the stronger the dictatorship’s confidence that they are doing everything correctly. And the fate of others does not convince them of anything, on the contrary, it adds their firmness to the thought that all this is not about them.

Second, the Gaddafi cornered. After issuing a warrant of the International Criminal Court, he simply has nowhere to go. Even the best friends will think three times before allowing him to come to this or that country. You can endlessly curse American imperialism, as Hugo Chavez does, because oil from Venezuela comes in for unloved dollars in the United States. And the leader of Caracas does not want to fall under the action of international sanctions. And so with any country, and no one will give any guarantees. Radovan Karadzic was sure that he would not be touched after the forced voluntary resignation; one can only imagine his disappointment when everything turned into a long-term search and inevitable arrest. So, Gaddafi will fight to the end, and detective история with his detention will continue for some time.

Already, the world is busy with two extremely important problems: how events will develop within the victorious forces and who will benefit from the fall of Gaddafi.
Regarding the first question, there is quite a lot of pessimism. Iraq is also mentioned that there is no unity among the oppositionists. Even a single military command was lacking, and some units acted in isolation. And, given the tribal structure of Libya, many imply a long civil confrontation, in the words of Thomas Hobbes, the bellum omnium contra omnes is the war of all against all. To this should be added the lack of experience in political governance under democratic conditions, the weakness of state institutions, and the like.

Undoubtedly, there are certain risks of an undesirable scenario, but they should not be overestimated. The first is the possibility of extremists coming to power, for example, al-Qaida. Islamic radicals do exist among the opponents of Gaddafi, but they are not the leading force. They do not need a state - except the territory as a springboard for the further spread of its expansion. As it happens in Afghanistan. The Libyan opposition seeks normal relations with the international community, the support of which it received. Therefore, the radicals, if they try to break through to the helm, are likely to be rejected, and the West will become the first and main helper in this.

The second risk is the possible disintegration of the country, in 1951 Libya gained independence as a federation of three territories - Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan in the south. It is unnecessary to speak about the separation of the last, desolate land with a few oasis villages. There are certain problems with Cyrenaica, which was the center of the opposition to the Gaddafi regime. There have always been jealous of Tripolitania. But such regional rivalry is inherent in many countries. However, the Transitional National Council initially acted as an organ of the whole country, without putting forward any separatist program. Note that in terms of religion, Libya, in contrast to, say, Iraq and Syria, is quite homogeneous. For the entire existence of an independent state, a serious separatist movement has not been noted. Not seen its manifestations in the process of dealing with Gaddafi.

And one more factor. The main wealth of the country is hydrocarbons. But in order to receive income from them, there must be territorial unity. Oil and gas are extracted in the depths of the country, pipelines must function properly and deliver black liquid gold to the coast to distilleries, and from them to ports with terminals. If the country disintegrates, the whole technological chain will collapse with it. Nobody is interested in this. We can talk only about the change in the distribution of income. But it is a subject of trade and agreements.

Now about who won. The representative of the Libyan state oil company AGOCO, Abdeldzhalil Mayuf, told Bloomberg that Tatneft and Gazpromneft, who previously worked in the Jamahiriya, may have problems with the new government. “We have some political issues with Russia, China and Brazil,” he said, letting us understand what the voting for the UN Security Council resolution 1973 from 17 in March 2011 of the year (the application of sanctions against Gaddafi), in which these countries abstained. Then the rebel representative Ahmed Jehan, who is responsible for restoring the infrastructure in Libya, said: "The question of the cancellation of any contracts is not worth it."

Most experts believe that in reality Russian companies will have to calculate losses. Vladimir Isaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the Vedomosti newspaper that the new Libyan authorities would not forget about the dual position of Russia. However, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said that the Libyan National Transitional Council had already reached an agreement on the preservation of all earlier contracts and the conclusion of new ones. Similar negotiations were held by French President Sarkozy. So, Moscow has clearly indicated that she had chosen the wrong friends at the right moment. Although the restoration of the oil infrastructure will take some (and considerable) time, and yet the West has clearly bypassed Russia on this issue. The Kremlin is paying for its desire to keep the golden middle. And this leads to such a policy, as a result of which losses are growing, and attempts to regain influence on the Arab world are doomed.
Valery Boval
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