Analytical program "However" with Mikhail Leontyev, 14 September 2011




Markets are already habitually shaking, the euro is rolling on an inclined plane. And now our Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin acknowledged the probability of a second wave of crisis. “If the problems of Europe are more acute, in the USA they are more fundamental,” Kudrin noted. And correctly noted. So we turn to more acute problems, leaving the fundamental aside for some time.

While some European partners are practically sabotaging aid to Greece, the German government, despite the grumbling of the public and even defeat in local elections, is showing determination to ensure the unity of the eurozone. And even this right defended in the Constitutional Court. “Germany has received tremendous benefits from membership in a monetary union. Now being in the eurozone leads to costs,” Nobel laureate Robert Mundell, considered the “father of the euro,” said in an interview with Expert magazine. “Of course, this is unpleasant, but, I repeat, you leave the eurozone, how do you reach agreements with the rest of the members, how do you change the currency "?

“From a technical and legislative point of view, there is no such possibility at all. But I also don’t think about such an opportunity, because we can thus cause a domino effect, which will be incredibly dangerous for our monetary system,” said German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Despite all the groans of the German inhabitants, and the fact that Germany is really paying for everything now, it’s just now that it’s clear who is the owner of a European home. Germany is now the second exporter in the world, only in this crisis, ceded the primacy to China. And if you look at the state of the German economy now, according to all indicators, in terms of economic growth, unemployment, budget and finance, it’s just brilliantly compared not only with European outsiders, but also in general “the average in the hospital”. It would seem to throw off the ballast, all these Greece with the Portuguese ...

“A person, company or country who does not have money should be able to go bankrupt,” says Nobel laureate Robert Aumann in the same “Expert”. In his opinion, if we let Greece go bankrupt, it is not necessary to exclude it from the eurozone. "They simply have no money. Why should they leave the eurozone? At one time, the world was not the world of the dollar or the world of the euro. It was a world of silver and gold. And no one left the gold zone if he had no money. The Greeks did not can print money. Why throw them out of the eurozone "?

Logical, but not realistic. Because the Greeks need to either give money, as now, or give to print money. And then - goodbye euro. If they are not given either one or the other, then not only the Greeks will be very upset, but everyone else as well.

The total national debt of the five largest European debtors - Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy - 3,2 trillion euros. The estimated total assets of these countries are 280 billion euros.

There is such a small thing. The creditors of the unfortunate people in the eurozone are just happy in the same eurozone. Both public and private. What does it mean when liabilities, debts are secured by 10% assets? That is, if you bankrupt them, then you have zero for these 90% in liabilities, a hole, an irrevocable loan. That is, you're 9 times more miserable than your debtor. Can not bankrupt. Therefore - he likes it, he doesn't have to pay. Question: how long.

"The euro is much, much more than just a currency. It is the guarantor of a united Europe. The euro will collapse - Europe will collapse," said Angela Merkel in the Bundestag, recalling that "the future of Germany is inseparably linked with the future of Europe."

A united Europe is generally a historically German idea. The current European Union is an economic mechanism that compensates Germany for the catastrophe of the Second World War. This is her market. And she is ready to pay for it. It can be said that today Germany is paying for the European Union. And we can say that the European Union will exist as long as Germany is ready to pay for it. And it will pay as long as the costs do not exceed revenues. Over all, it turns out that it is a matter of time.
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  1. Gosta
    Gosta 15 September 2011 10: 07 New
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    The Germans will figure out how to get out of this situation, they have already chosen more than once ...
    It’s just us who are used to saying that America didn’t fight on its territory, therefore it is developed, and we have the 1st World War, the 2nd, Golden Horde wink therefore lagging behind ....
    Here you are an example of the Federal Republic of Germany, which was destroyed and divided into parts in 1945, all scientific developments were stolen by the USA and the USSR ..... But in the end, the Federal Republic of Germany was back on its feet, with excellent military equipment, weapons and developed infrastructure, while the United States went bankrupt and the USSR fell apart and now in Russia the demographic crisis ... that’s what won the 2nd World War wink (I mean that the state of Russia is worse than that of Germany, and some will now start throwing themselves in slippers and say that I am a supporter of the fact that the USSR would capture the Germans in the 2nd World War, like life would be better)
    It just seems to me that the Germans are practical people, my classmate lives in Munich now, her family is not rich, they just had relatives there, they sent an invitation and she went to live there, got a job herself and bought a car a year later , after 3 she has a private house))) we need to kill someone in order to buy it in such a time
    wink and on the streets there are drunkards and drunks celebrating the need in front of everyone you will not see, and if you see, the police will pick him up within 2 minutes smile
    1. lokdok
      lokdok 15 September 2011 10: 25 New
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      Germany - ended the war in 1945, Russia in 1991.
      1. Gosta
        Gosta 15 September 2011 10: 40 New
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        Yeah, and after 30 years they will say that Russia ended the war in 2011)))
        It seems to me that the whole problem is in our mentality, democracy does not suit us at all, we need communism ... Because democracy is not drunkenness in all kinds of places, not drug addiction ... In Russia, we have only 15-20% of normal non-degrading people ... Before tearing the shirt on myself and shouting that everyone is bad, and I'm good, and we have corruption, we first need to change something in ourselves, if everyone does this, then our country will have a future, but for now I don’t see him ... more and more visitors come to us, already on the streets every fifth, and the Russian people are drunk and dying out slowly smile
        After all, we are used to always blaming the other for our mistakes, not ourselves ...
        If a neighbor has achieved something in life, then he is a bandit smile
        Where to go in the evening to relax, drink beer ...
        I want to go to the toilet, yes the staircase is open
        Even I don’t want to go to work, get through .. or what?
        That’s what our mentality lacks. smile
        1. Agnislav
          Agnislav 15 September 2011 13: 15 New
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          Gosta, where do you get such examples? Is it not from your environment?
          1. Gosta
            Gosta 15 September 2011 14: 41 New
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            Yes, fortunately no smile here's an example for you, if you live in a high-rise building, then you have an elevator, and how is it? no inscriptions? smile
            You don’t even have to answer, I’m already 1% sure that all this is ... I bought an apartment a year ago in a completely new house, everything is already painted, this summer is still there, you can drink on the streets, now it’s getting colder, the youth at home does not drink because there are parents, you need to go out to buy beer smile and then it’s stupid to go thump into the first open staircase of your own house ... I drank beer, I’ll run far to the toilet to the house, so what do you think, where will they go to the toilet?
            It’s not necessary to communicate with human digrods to know about this ...
            Everyone shouts that it’s bad in Russia, but at least you don’t need to write in elevators smile it's like a drop in the ocean smile
            1. Agnislav
              Agnislav 15 September 2011 19: 10 New
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              Such stinkers have always been enough, what do you associate them with all the Russians?
              I don’t like srach in the porch and the elevator - a broom and a mop to help you, if something like that is not your "status" - go to the village to live, keep your personal yard clean))
              1. Gosta
                Gosta 15 September 2011 21: 02 New
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                I can still come to visit your ass and wipe, after you go to the toilet smile cleaning is done by the cleaning lady in the entrance and I'm sorry for her, because instead of coming and just sweeping, she has to take out the bottles am by status or not by status, it’s who studied what’s called, if you have brains and you can easily find a decent job for yourself without any blat ... I changed 5 jobs before I found the one I like smile I am completely satisfied with my life, whoever seeks will always find smile
                And in the village I lived all my childhood and in no case do not consider it something shameful smile since you thought to frighten me with this with a broom and a mop, I also worked in my time, while I was studying, for 5 whole years smile
                and I do not associate the above behavior with all the Russians, I just wanted to convey to you that there is a lot of such gov.a in Russia, and as long as it exists we will all live in it and we will ...
                A drop of tar spoils a barrel of honey, this is just about the situation
                1. Agnislav
                  Agnislav 15 September 2011 21: 45 New
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                  you have demonstrated very well this "shit happy with your life"
              2. Gosta
                Gosta 15 September 2011 21: 05 New
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                here's to you for thought http://rutube.ru/tracks/1964150.html?v=97bbb2057c4881e8efa2181984060a52
                1. Agnislav
                  Agnislav 15 September 2011 21: 57 New
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                  you recommend videos for thought to schoolchildren, highly educated and intellectually developed, people who are happy with their life))))
                  1. Gosta
                    Gosta 15 September 2011 22: 44 New
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                    hmm, here you are, an example is you yourself, a typical example of an ill-mannered Russian person smile You probably were offended by me because you saw yourself in my statements? I in no way wanted to insult you in my statements and I did not call you shit smile I argued all my speeches with examples, and what example did you give? just called me shit, thanks smile I wrote my thoughts in order to develop and support the discussion, you started by saying that I take all the examples from myself smile your thoughts are not completely confirmed by anything, so I conclude that you are idle talk and ignorant smile
                    1. Gosta
                      Gosta 15 September 2011 22: 49 New
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                      wink I got a rating of -63 wink here you have digrods that crap in the hallways wink
                      1. Agnislav
                        Agnislav 16 September 2011 10: 21 New
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                        I’m saying that you’re the only one so smart and decent, everyone else is “digrods”, they’re crap in the porches, they’re minus the rating
                      2. Gosta
                        Gosta 16 September 2011 11: 25 New
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                        In Russia, only 15-20% of normal non-degrading people ...
                        These are my words, I don’t say that all digrods, but there are a lot of them and this is a fact smile
                        And to cons I honestly do not care smile let at least a million instruct them, from this they will not become smarter smile
                      3. Gosta
                        Gosta 16 September 2011 11: 34 New
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                        For the entire time of our discussion, you could not even argue your opinion, if you are against my opinion, please tell me where I am wrong and if possible with examples smile it can even stupidly put a minus, and it will already be more difficult to argue your opinion smile
                        so far you are only tearing your shirt on yourself, and you cannot give any facts on this subject, thereby once again confirming the correctness of my statements smile
                        You can rub yourself as much as you like, but your words so far are just an empty phrase smile
                      4. Agnislav
                        Agnislav 16 September 2011 14: 21 New
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                        you are funny, like your emoticons))
                      5. Gosta
                        Gosta 16 September 2011 23: 26 New
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                        Are you stupid smile because of people like you, Russia has no future smile
                        sit and cry about what a bad government in Russia is smile
                        As long as there are stupid people like you, sitting at home and shaking the air with stupid and unfounded opinions, our government will continue to earn money for themselves and they will be right in that, why dumbasses and pigs with drunks should build something new, why should they raise their salaries, that's all equally prosrut smile and in this I support them smile
                        live on in the same way as pigs smile not for nothing that the Germans probably said I was a complete asshole ...
                      6. Gosta
                        Gosta 17 September 2011 03: 13 New
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                        Admins now I will look as comments correct wink the behavior of stupid idiots, you can’t say otherwise smile
                        Russian chm.shny people, I'm not glad that I was born in a country inhabited by dumbasses and drunks smile
                        Good luck in life, but a stronger rope fellow
  • raf
    raf 15 September 2011 21: 23 New
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    Germany raised the Americans, the money earned from the sale of weapons to warring countries! And the fact that the Germans do not argue the cultural and practical people, the truth!
  • Banshee 15 September 2011 10: 30 New
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    It's funny ... Hardly anyone starts yelling and throwing slippers, this is true. Yes, the Germans knew how to work, just as they could get out of their ass.

    Good article. Yes, the Germans again crushed under the whole of Europe. From the third attempt. But not the fact that it will work out again.

    "The euro is much, much more than just a currency. It is the guarantor of a united Europe. The euro will collapse - Europe will collapse," said Angela Merkel in the Bundestag, recalling that "the future of Germany is inseparably linked with the future of Europe."

    C'mon you, will not collapse. They lived before that somehow ... And many lived better than with the euro. To me, all this mess is like a financial pyramid. Who is the first - that and grandmother. Who is lower - here and there, who at the very bottom - suckers.
    Here at the top are Germany and France. And they have more or less. the rest ... Well, this is not the case when the problems of the Sheriff Indians do not care. Accordingly, the Germans will have to carry this eurozone on themselves. But who said that it is not profitable to Germany? Yes, they are from this and rushing up! Well done, changed tactics. What can not win - buy. and most of the industry in Romania, Hungary, the former Czechoslovakia, bought by whom? right, the Germans. This is about the "Skoda" vividly advertised, and in other areas all bungled tishkom.

    I do not know, not special, but for sure, if the khan comes in the euro, then the nations will pokolitsya, pokrizisuyu, maybe they will leave, and then they will get the old printing presses and again begin to print lei, drachmas, liras, peseta ... Life for the euro does not end. Although Germany will get a fair blow to the positions.
  • ytqnhfk
    ytqnhfk 15 September 2011 10: 57 New
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    In principle, I agree with the Banshee! The Germans are just waging an economic predatory war !!! And so far they haven’t figured out what to do next with the “slaves”; all this happens for them too quickly. We didn’t have time to react, but on the scale well done!
  • PSih2097 15 September 2011 13: 29 New
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    I think everything is a bit more prosaic, since Germany and France sponsor the rest of Europe, then, with the collapse of the EU, they simply select the territories from the debtors.
  • Shqvarqi
    Shqvarqi 15 September 2011 14: 05 New
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    This is just competent economic policy. (in Germany)
    There are markets, there is one currency, why not develop ?!
    And what do we have ?! We don’t even use what we have. The nearest countries that are part of our economic zone, on the contrary, distance themselves from us. We would only have to redirect the gas transport flows and knock the headstock out for gas.
    There are general stat tables from 2008 to 2010, then oil and petroleum products are in first place in Russia, almost 1%. In 70nd place is natural gas.
    Germany - 1 place: cars, vehicles, spare parts for them, equipment; 2nd place: medicines, not counting machine tools and production.
    1. Gosta
      Gosta 15 September 2011 14: 45 New
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      And they just do not have natural resources, so they are competently developing in the direction of increasing those. production. I think soon Europe as such will not be, there will be Germany, France, Great Britain (maybe), and the rest of their colony smile