Analytical program "However" with Mikhail Leontyev, 14 September 2011



Markets are already habitually shaking, the euro is rolling on an inclined plane. And now our Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin acknowledged the probability of a second wave of crisis. “If the problems of Europe are more acute, in the USA they are more fundamental,” Kudrin noted. And correctly noted. So we turn to more acute problems, leaving the fundamental aside for some time.


While some European partners are practically sabotaging aid to Greece, the German government, despite the grumbling of the public and even defeat in local elections, is showing determination to ensure the unity of the eurozone. And even this right defended in the Constitutional Court. “Germany has received tremendous benefits from membership in a monetary union. Now being in the eurozone leads to costs,” Nobel laureate Robert Mundell, considered the “father of the euro,” said in an interview with Expert magazine. “Of course, this is unpleasant, but, I repeat, you leave the eurozone, how do you reach agreements with the rest of the members, how do you change the currency "?

“From a technical and legislative point of view, there is no such possibility at all. But I also don’t think about such an opportunity, because we can thus cause a domino effect, which will be incredibly dangerous for our monetary system,” said German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Despite all the groans of the German inhabitants, and the fact that Germany is really paying for everything now, it’s just now that it’s clear who is the owner of a European home. Germany is now the second exporter in the world, only in this crisis, ceded the primacy to China. And if you look at the state of the German economy now, according to all indicators, in terms of economic growth, unemployment, budget and finance, it’s just brilliantly compared not only with European outsiders, but also in general “the average in the hospital”. It would seem to throw off the ballast, all these Greece with the Portuguese ...

“A person, company or country who does not have money should be able to go bankrupt,” says Nobel laureate Robert Aumann in the same “Expert”. In his opinion, if we let Greece go bankrupt, it is not necessary to exclude it from the eurozone. "They simply have no money. Why should they leave the eurozone? At one time, the world was not the world of the dollar or the world of the euro. It was a world of silver and gold. And no one left the gold zone if he had no money. The Greeks did not can print money. Why throw them out of the eurozone "?

Logical, but not realistic. Because the Greeks need to either give money, as now, or give to print money. And then - goodbye euro. If they are not given either one or the other, then not only the Greeks will be very upset, but everyone else as well.

The total national debt of the five largest European debtors - Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy - 3,2 trillion euros. The estimated total assets of these countries are 280 billion euros.

There is such a small thing. The creditors of the unfortunate people in the eurozone are just happy in the same eurozone. Both public and private. What does it mean when liabilities, debts are secured by 10% assets? That is, if you bankrupt them, then you have zero for these 90% in liabilities, a hole, an irrevocable loan. That is, you're 9 times more miserable than your debtor. Can not bankrupt. Therefore - he likes it, he doesn't have to pay. Question: how long.

"The euro is much, much more than just a currency. It is the guarantor of a united Europe. The euro will collapse - Europe will collapse," said Angela Merkel in the Bundestag, recalling that "the future of Germany is inseparably linked with the future of Europe."

A united Europe is generally a historically German idea. The current European Union is an economic mechanism that compensates Germany for the catastrophe of the Second World War. This is her market. And she is ready to pay for it. It can be said that today Germany is paying for the European Union. And we can say that the European Union will exist as long as Germany is ready to pay for it. And it will pay as long as the costs do not exceed revenues. Over all, it turns out that it is a matter of time.
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