How much longer will the Chinese dragon sleep?

How much longer will the Chinese dragon sleep?2011 year can be called the year of global changes in world politics. If mankind couldn’t have imagined as a world leader, a real “hegemon” any other state besides the USA 5-10 years ago, today the rating of the United States inexorably moves down. Some experts tend to consider the beginning of the American “fall” the year of the beginning of the global financial crisis, others see 2001 as the beginning of the year - the year of the largest attack on the US by world terrorists, while others say that the systemic crisis in all spheres of the United States began Let us try to figure out when the mechanism for lowering the US rating could start and which of the current states will be able to change the Americans in the role of a new superpower.

So, if the United States really rushed to a deep peak, not only economically, but also politically and geo-strategically, then the only country that can fill the “leadership vacuum” in our time is China. It could be considered as an alternative to the European Union, but this education is painfully heterogeneous. We have already today, and, by the way, not much time has passed since the formation of a united Europe, we have the opportunity to observe how Greece, Portugal and Ireland are actually recognized as a ballast from which it would be nice for the European Union to get rid of, excluding from the EU members. Other European countries will soon join these three countries, for example Spain and Italy, where economic indicators are also far from ideal. On the Eastern European countries like Romania or Latvia and can not speak. It turns out that today such a huge in scale, capital and population size education as the European Union is, in fact, Germany and France, which are trying to somehow “pull” everyone else literally behind the ears of a grandiose economic whirlpool.

With such a conjuncture, the views of the world community again rush towards the PRC. No one, except perhaps the eternal skeptic and hater of all non-American Zbigniew Brzezinski, does not dispute the fact that China has been gaining momentum in recent years at an enormous pace. More recently, no one in the world has been serious about China. He was considered a simple appendage of Asia, whose population is so large that it cannot feed itself. Today, even Brzezinski with his communist phobias cannot afford such statements. Many still try to rank China among the countries that are actively implanting socialist ideology in society, not realizing the new market realities. However, China has long ceased to be a copy of the Soviet Union, and the reforms of Deng Xiaoping allowed the Middle Kingdom to take a worthy place in the global economy.

It is worth noting that with all the negative remarks about China, this country, by and large, pays little attention to such remarks.

Already, China is the second largest GDP in the world. Many world analysts say that it will take place around 20, and maybe even 15 years, as the Chinese economy comes out on top, leaving behind the current leader - the American economy. Without a doubt, such prospects are not at all encouraging for Americans, but the United States can no longer take adequate steps to increase its economic power. Moreover, China today is the world's largest holder of American debt. In the financial system, China has accumulated US debt worth over a trillion dollars. This is also a US deterrent. It turns out that today many American citizens live at the expense of China. And it is worth only in something that China does not like the way it will simply get rid of the US debt obligations, plunging the States into a new large-scale crisis. In such a situation, it would be simply foolish to criticize the Chinese from the Americans, even if they appear to be "star-striped" only as devil with horns.

For some time in the world, the question of why China is no longer trying to press the United States “against the wall” has become increasingly common, because it has all the prerequisites for this. One should not forget that China, in addition to a powerful economic power, is also a power with significant military potential, plus nuclear power. weapon. Americans would be happy today to do something similar to the “Arab Spring” in China, but their risks in this case are painfully high. And China, possessing all of its colossal resources, is simply not yet determined to take on the leading role in the world. Perhaps this is due to the sacred for many Chinese covenants of the great Mao, which say that "no need to stick out." And, perhaps, the Chinese are simply waiting for the US economy to collapse to its knees, opening the way to the economic and political Olympus.

If we talk about the mentioned precepts of Mao Zedong, then today in China there are their critics. In particular, some political forces of the Celestial Empire declare that, if one follows Mao’s logic, one can remain a sort of cumbersome global giant for a long time, under whose feet more active states will warp and select the sweetest pieces. These same people also say that already today the same European Union is trying to “chop off” the tidbits of the oil business in those regions where China seems to have managed to establish contacts. These statements are not meaningless, because today in Libya, the new leadership of the country signs oil and gas agreements so far only with those who actively supported the insurgency, that is, with France, Italy and the United States.

However, the peacefully sleeping Chinese Dragon can suddenly wake up for everyone and show the world what he is really capable of. Then the world will have to take its hegemony both economically and geopolitically in world relations for granted.
Alexey Volodin
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