Nikolay Radov. Belarusian economy in 2015 year: confident movement to disaster
It is obvious that in 2015, the policy will have a priority place in the life of the Belarusian state, penetrating absolutely all spheres of the country's activities. The economy, which has not been in actual stagnation for more than a year, will not be an exception, surviving only through various contraband schemes and loans from Russia. In this case, the following should be noted: in the conditions of attenuation of the interest of ordinary citizens to the Ukrainian crisis, which is becoming more distant and less global in the mass consciousness than at the initial stage, the local electorate may pay special attention to the deteriorating economic situation in the country, which will negatively affect on the image of the authorities on the eve of the elections. Something similar has already happened in modern Belarusian storieswhen, after an explosion in the Minsk metro in 2011, the Belarusian society only excited for a while in order to then forget about the threat of terrorism and continue to solve its immediate problems - look for dollars, discuss price increases and low wages, etc. And this year, if no extraordinary events occur near the Belarusian borders or within the republic, the events in Ukraine will no longer be perceived by the population as a global catastrophe, gradually moving into the background, giving way to socio-economic issues. Therefore, local officials will face a serious dilemma: either continue to artificially escalate the situation in order to distract the population from pressing problems, or recognize the entire failure of the economic policy and lay the blame on someone from the outside. At the same time, no one will carry out cardinal reforms in the country either in the first or the second case, and the main directions of the country's socio-economic development will remain the same.
First, Belarus will be obliged to continue developing its cooperation within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. Even in spite of the fact that it is completely new and, according to many experts, still a happy raw association in 2015 will hardly bring its participants serious economic benefits. Especially Minsk: in connection with the situation in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions, which are unlikely to end in 2015, Moscow will not be able to throw away billions of US dollars to support the virtually dead Belarusian economy, which means a sharp reduction in Russian subsidies. Moreover, various trade duties, which will continue to operate in the current year in some cases, will also not allow Minsk to replenish its budget as we would like. True, in the Kremlin, against the background of a reduction in direct subsidies, they can reduce restrictions, but this is unlikely to bring big profits for Belarusians. Moreover, on the eve of the elections, Moscow needs to have in its hands quite serious instruments of economic pressure on Minsk, which means a rather long and complicated process of bilateral negotiations, during which Belarus will continue to lose opportunities to correct the situation in its economy. In this case, Minsk is also unlikely to be helped by the fact that in 2015, he was entrusted with the “honorable” role of the EAEU Chairman. Of course, the Belarusian authorities in their negotiations with Russia will try to speak on behalf of the Union, believing that this gives them serious weight. Moreover, Minsk continues to believe that for the sake of preserving post-Soviet integration, the Kremlin is ready to do anything. However, one should not overestimate the possibilities of the EAEU bodies in the framework of bilateral cooperation between Russia and Belarus - the individual interests of the countries will always be more important than integration issues.
Secondly, as mentioned above, this year, as before, cardinal economic reforms are unlikely to be implemented in Belarus. Even in spite of the fact that at the end of 2014 of the year A. Lukashenko almost completely updated the government: there are practically no professionals who could start the reform. All “new” persons are people who have been working in state structures for more than a year: A. Kobyakov, appointed prime minister, worked for a long time in the Council of Ministers, P. Kallaur, who became the chairman of the National Bank, was a deputy chairman for a long time and .d According to analysts, the only interesting appointment is the new post of A. Kosinets, who previously headed the Vitebsk region, who became the head of the presidential administration. Considering that it was he who most often spoke out for the need for indulgences for business, it can be assumed that he would be entrusted with solving the problems of entrepreneurs on the eve of the elections, relating them to the interests of the regime. But in any case, this will be done only in order to relieve a certain tension in the business environment, which has arisen due to the pressure that has sharply increased on them in the 2014 year. The rest of the activities of the Belarusian government will be based on the main need - to hold out until the elections. Therefore, official statements are already heard today that there is no crisis in the country, and in fact the 30% devaluation occurred because of the population, who rushed to buy currency in order to purchase goods in Russia. The only thing local officials will do in 2015 is to try to mitigate the consequences of the Russian crisis for Belarus. In this case, all sorts of measures will be used: spending gold reserves, reducing social program spending and increasing law enforcement costs (as evidenced by the adopted budget for 2015), searching for new schemes for smuggling goods to Russia, searching for loans, and selling state property bargain prices.
Thirdly, the 2015 year may indeed be the year of the wholesale privatization of state property. At the same time, it is unlikely that someone from investors both in the West and in Russia will be seriously interested in buying Belarusian assets. For example, the Russian side has already lost interest in the protracted process of merging MAZ and KAMAZ, as well as a number of other joint projects, the issue on which has not been resolved by the Belarusians in recent years. It is unlikely that this year investors will change their position, unless, of course, Minsk decides to give away "family silver" for nothing. True, the last election year is unlikely, especially since this situation in the economy will not save and can only adversely affect the image of the authorities. However, despite this, the plans of the official Minsk are simply ambitious. According to the Resolution of the Council of Ministers No. 1238 of 24 December 2014, the State Property Committee, the Minsk City Executive Committee and the regional executive committees, the government should form a list of proposals for privatization objects worth at least 850 million US dollars for sale to investors. Moreover, the capital and regional centers are obliged to submit to the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus a list of investment projects for attracting foreign direct investment in 2015 on a net basis (excluding debt to a direct investor for goods and services) of at least 1 billion 875 million US dollars . And this is despite the fact that in a more or less quiet 2014, the authorities were able to attract only a few tens of millions of US dollars instead of the planned 4,5 billion.
Fourthly, due to the lack of timely reforms, as well as the unfavorable situation in foreign markets, which will continue in 2015, Belarus and its citizens will face a sharp drop in living standards, signs of which are already visible to the naked eye. For example, the increase in the official number of unemployed (hidden unemployment in Belarus has long exceeded 1 million people), which was not observed in the republic before. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, the number of registered unemployed in the country at the end of November 2014 was 23,6 thousand people, which is 11,7% more than at the end of November 2013, and 6% more than at the end of October 2014. And, despite the fact that the official registered unemployment rate at the end of November 2014, as at the end of November 2013, amounted to 0,5% of the economically active population, 4 million 472,5 thousand people were employed in the economy at the beginning of winter, which is 1,2 % less than a year ago. Simply put, the process of reduction at Belarusian enterprises under various pretexts continues, and new jobs are not created.
In addition, in Belarus, the situation with the level of average wages, which has not been falling for the first month, also looks in a better way. Although in the previous election years, the government did everything to ensure that it grew constantly. Thus, according to the National Statistics Committee, the average nominal accrued wages in Belarus in November 2014 amounted to 6 194,4 thousand Belarusian rubles (about US $ 540), which is by 183,5 thousand, or by 2,9%, less than in October 2014 of the year. The average salary in November was even lower than the June level of 2014. At the same time, real wages fell even lower: compared with October, it decreased by 3,5%, compared to November 2013, by 2,3%. And this is despite the fact that the end of the year is a period of various kinds of additional payments and premiums, and the ruble exchange rate at that time was 30% higher than today. Thus, at the 2015 year, the level of remuneration of the Belarusians will not just not reach the 5 dollars promised by 1000 years ago, but will fall below five hundred dollars declared by the president a few years ago.
The fall in the level of wages, and hence the standard of living, one way or another will lead to mass immigration of labor force. Even despite the financial and economic difficulties in Russia, the flow of labor migrants is unlikely to stop there, since the level of remuneration in the neighboring country will in any case remain higher. Therefore, against this background, the Belarusian authorities should expect a tough response - the issuance of new laws aimed at combating the “parasites”, tightening control over labor discipline and so on.
Fifth, due to problems in finance, as well as the lack of professional policy of the National Bank in 2015, Belarus expects a serious weakening of the local currency, and hence a significant increase in prices. At the same time, the new budget practically does not include the growth of wages, which means that in the election year the Belarusians will only get poorer. If we add to this that the Belarusian leadership is unlikely to keep the Belarusian ruble rate within the current +/- 14 000 per US dollar, as well as the extreme dependence of the local economy on the situation in Russia, it turns out that it will become more difficult for ordinary citizens of the republic to live. The only way out that can improve the image of the authorities and at the same time destroy the remnants of the financial system is the additional emission of the Belarusian ruble. Will the leadership of Belarus to this - a question that does not depend entirely on the economic feasibility of this procedure, but on the will of one person only.
Sixth, in 2015, Belarusians will have to forget about cheap loans, low utility bills, and low tariffs for various types of services. On the contrary, the tax burden on all sectors of the Belarusian economy, and therefore on ordinary citizens, will only increase. The various social payments that the Belarusian authorities are so proud of, if they are not completely frozen, will noticeably decrease and will be directed primarily to those social strata who traditionally support the current political regime - pensioners, asocial elements, as well as collective and state farm workers . That is, those who for one reason or another do not earn, but only consume.
Thus, it can be stated that the socio-economic situation in Belarus this year will be close to catastrophic. Moreover, the republic, in addition to everything else, will need to pay more than 3 billion US dollars on foreign debt, which are practically nowhere to take. Such conditions will lead to the fact that Minsk will be forced to spend the remnants of its foreign exchange reserves, freeze social programs, except for those related to law enforcement agencies, as well as go on the sale of state property at low prices. Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that because of the current situation in Belarus, the construction of the century may even be suspended - the construction of a nuclear power plant in Ostrovets, which will be the collapse of the entire official ideology of recent years.
Of course, the Belarusian authorities will do everything possible to cover up their economic failures with political and ideological slogans, offering ordinary Belarusians, instead of bread, just a spectacle. At the same time, the perpetrators will be sought not only within the country, where, according to the president and his entourage, the people are to blame for all the financial crises of recent years, but also abroad. Russia and, most likely, the EEU will also be responsible for what is happening. Therefore, 2015 year promises to be rich in events that, unfortunately, will hurt not just the ruling elite, but simple Belarusians.
First, Belarus will be obliged to continue developing its cooperation within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. Even in spite of the fact that it is completely new and, according to many experts, still a happy raw association in 2015 will hardly bring its participants serious economic benefits. Especially Minsk: in connection with the situation in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions, which are unlikely to end in 2015, Moscow will not be able to throw away billions of US dollars to support the virtually dead Belarusian economy, which means a sharp reduction in Russian subsidies. Moreover, various trade duties, which will continue to operate in the current year in some cases, will also not allow Minsk to replenish its budget as we would like. True, in the Kremlin, against the background of a reduction in direct subsidies, they can reduce restrictions, but this is unlikely to bring big profits for Belarusians. Moreover, on the eve of the elections, Moscow needs to have in its hands quite serious instruments of economic pressure on Minsk, which means a rather long and complicated process of bilateral negotiations, during which Belarus will continue to lose opportunities to correct the situation in its economy. In this case, Minsk is also unlikely to be helped by the fact that in 2015, he was entrusted with the “honorable” role of the EAEU Chairman. Of course, the Belarusian authorities in their negotiations with Russia will try to speak on behalf of the Union, believing that this gives them serious weight. Moreover, Minsk continues to believe that for the sake of preserving post-Soviet integration, the Kremlin is ready to do anything. However, one should not overestimate the possibilities of the EAEU bodies in the framework of bilateral cooperation between Russia and Belarus - the individual interests of the countries will always be more important than integration issues.
Secondly, as mentioned above, this year, as before, cardinal economic reforms are unlikely to be implemented in Belarus. Even in spite of the fact that at the end of 2014 of the year A. Lukashenko almost completely updated the government: there are practically no professionals who could start the reform. All “new” persons are people who have been working in state structures for more than a year: A. Kobyakov, appointed prime minister, worked for a long time in the Council of Ministers, P. Kallaur, who became the chairman of the National Bank, was a deputy chairman for a long time and .d According to analysts, the only interesting appointment is the new post of A. Kosinets, who previously headed the Vitebsk region, who became the head of the presidential administration. Considering that it was he who most often spoke out for the need for indulgences for business, it can be assumed that he would be entrusted with solving the problems of entrepreneurs on the eve of the elections, relating them to the interests of the regime. But in any case, this will be done only in order to relieve a certain tension in the business environment, which has arisen due to the pressure that has sharply increased on them in the 2014 year. The rest of the activities of the Belarusian government will be based on the main need - to hold out until the elections. Therefore, official statements are already heard today that there is no crisis in the country, and in fact the 30% devaluation occurred because of the population, who rushed to buy currency in order to purchase goods in Russia. The only thing local officials will do in 2015 is to try to mitigate the consequences of the Russian crisis for Belarus. In this case, all sorts of measures will be used: spending gold reserves, reducing social program spending and increasing law enforcement costs (as evidenced by the adopted budget for 2015), searching for new schemes for smuggling goods to Russia, searching for loans, and selling state property bargain prices.
Thirdly, the 2015 year may indeed be the year of the wholesale privatization of state property. At the same time, it is unlikely that someone from investors both in the West and in Russia will be seriously interested in buying Belarusian assets. For example, the Russian side has already lost interest in the protracted process of merging MAZ and KAMAZ, as well as a number of other joint projects, the issue on which has not been resolved by the Belarusians in recent years. It is unlikely that this year investors will change their position, unless, of course, Minsk decides to give away "family silver" for nothing. True, the last election year is unlikely, especially since this situation in the economy will not save and can only adversely affect the image of the authorities. However, despite this, the plans of the official Minsk are simply ambitious. According to the Resolution of the Council of Ministers No. 1238 of 24 December 2014, the State Property Committee, the Minsk City Executive Committee and the regional executive committees, the government should form a list of proposals for privatization objects worth at least 850 million US dollars for sale to investors. Moreover, the capital and regional centers are obliged to submit to the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus a list of investment projects for attracting foreign direct investment in 2015 on a net basis (excluding debt to a direct investor for goods and services) of at least 1 billion 875 million US dollars . And this is despite the fact that in a more or less quiet 2014, the authorities were able to attract only a few tens of millions of US dollars instead of the planned 4,5 billion.
Fourthly, due to the lack of timely reforms, as well as the unfavorable situation in foreign markets, which will continue in 2015, Belarus and its citizens will face a sharp drop in living standards, signs of which are already visible to the naked eye. For example, the increase in the official number of unemployed (hidden unemployment in Belarus has long exceeded 1 million people), which was not observed in the republic before. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, the number of registered unemployed in the country at the end of November 2014 was 23,6 thousand people, which is 11,7% more than at the end of November 2013, and 6% more than at the end of October 2014. And, despite the fact that the official registered unemployment rate at the end of November 2014, as at the end of November 2013, amounted to 0,5% of the economically active population, 4 million 472,5 thousand people were employed in the economy at the beginning of winter, which is 1,2 % less than a year ago. Simply put, the process of reduction at Belarusian enterprises under various pretexts continues, and new jobs are not created.
In addition, in Belarus, the situation with the level of average wages, which has not been falling for the first month, also looks in a better way. Although in the previous election years, the government did everything to ensure that it grew constantly. Thus, according to the National Statistics Committee, the average nominal accrued wages in Belarus in November 2014 amounted to 6 194,4 thousand Belarusian rubles (about US $ 540), which is by 183,5 thousand, or by 2,9%, less than in October 2014 of the year. The average salary in November was even lower than the June level of 2014. At the same time, real wages fell even lower: compared with October, it decreased by 3,5%, compared to November 2013, by 2,3%. And this is despite the fact that the end of the year is a period of various kinds of additional payments and premiums, and the ruble exchange rate at that time was 30% higher than today. Thus, at the 2015 year, the level of remuneration of the Belarusians will not just not reach the 5 dollars promised by 1000 years ago, but will fall below five hundred dollars declared by the president a few years ago.
The fall in the level of wages, and hence the standard of living, one way or another will lead to mass immigration of labor force. Even despite the financial and economic difficulties in Russia, the flow of labor migrants is unlikely to stop there, since the level of remuneration in the neighboring country will in any case remain higher. Therefore, against this background, the Belarusian authorities should expect a tough response - the issuance of new laws aimed at combating the “parasites”, tightening control over labor discipline and so on.
Fifth, due to problems in finance, as well as the lack of professional policy of the National Bank in 2015, Belarus expects a serious weakening of the local currency, and hence a significant increase in prices. At the same time, the new budget practically does not include the growth of wages, which means that in the election year the Belarusians will only get poorer. If we add to this that the Belarusian leadership is unlikely to keep the Belarusian ruble rate within the current +/- 14 000 per US dollar, as well as the extreme dependence of the local economy on the situation in Russia, it turns out that it will become more difficult for ordinary citizens of the republic to live. The only way out that can improve the image of the authorities and at the same time destroy the remnants of the financial system is the additional emission of the Belarusian ruble. Will the leadership of Belarus to this - a question that does not depend entirely on the economic feasibility of this procedure, but on the will of one person only.
Sixth, in 2015, Belarusians will have to forget about cheap loans, low utility bills, and low tariffs for various types of services. On the contrary, the tax burden on all sectors of the Belarusian economy, and therefore on ordinary citizens, will only increase. The various social payments that the Belarusian authorities are so proud of, if they are not completely frozen, will noticeably decrease and will be directed primarily to those social strata who traditionally support the current political regime - pensioners, asocial elements, as well as collective and state farm workers . That is, those who for one reason or another do not earn, but only consume.
Thus, it can be stated that the socio-economic situation in Belarus this year will be close to catastrophic. Moreover, the republic, in addition to everything else, will need to pay more than 3 billion US dollars on foreign debt, which are practically nowhere to take. Such conditions will lead to the fact that Minsk will be forced to spend the remnants of its foreign exchange reserves, freeze social programs, except for those related to law enforcement agencies, as well as go on the sale of state property at low prices. Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that because of the current situation in Belarus, the construction of the century may even be suspended - the construction of a nuclear power plant in Ostrovets, which will be the collapse of the entire official ideology of recent years.
Of course, the Belarusian authorities will do everything possible to cover up their economic failures with political and ideological slogans, offering ordinary Belarusians, instead of bread, just a spectacle. At the same time, the perpetrators will be sought not only within the country, where, according to the president and his entourage, the people are to blame for all the financial crises of recent years, but also abroad. Russia and, most likely, the EEU will also be responsible for what is happening. Therefore, 2015 year promises to be rich in events that, unfortunately, will hurt not just the ruling elite, but simple Belarusians.
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