Reports from the fronts of the economic war
We'll have to start right away with a “lyrical digression.” The network rotates a lot of opinions about the causes of Russia's economic problems. From “putinsley” to “the war of the towers”. All this "white noise" greatly hinders understanding what is happening on the fronts of the economic war of the West against Russia. Therefore, I propose to immediately separate the "flies" from the "cutlets".
So - "putnesnesl". Just for one reason. GDP can only merge Russia with it. He was sentenced to death at the beginning of 2000, when he ruined the scenario of the final collapse of Russia. However, the sentenced person does not always know about such a sentence. After all, there is an example of Colonel Gaddafi, who called Obama a “son,” and Berlusconi called a “brother.” Apparently, considering that he “bent” sufficiently in front of the West and can calmly live out his age. Similarly, the GDP was informed about the sentence at the moment when it became clear that, even after he had left the post of first person in Russia, he was not eliminated from power, and the Dominator's follower remained loyal to his “patron”. But it's not even GDP. The dust of Berezovsky knocks at the heart of every Russian oligarch. Using the example of this undoubtedly talented villain, the West has shown under what conditions he is ready to “take” them to himself. Moreover, the BAB is still loyal to the West. Unlike the rest of the oligarchs domestic bottling. Well, I will not recall the Cypriot "expropriation", which showed that for the West the property is inviolable only if it belongs to "one's own", or the heavy "right hand" of one of "one's own" has not yet laid down on it. Thus, there is absolutely nowhere for the Russian oligarchs to go down on GDP. And in the case of "Maidan" in Moscow or military defeat, they still die. And for many - also very painful. Considering, again, the existing experience of Gaddafi, who did not want to be quietly strangled, but took it into his head ... It was good for Yanukovych, he could have escaped to Rostov, and where to escape from Russia? China is not a sufficient shelter, as Snowden's epic has shown. And in general, being a “workshop” of the Western world, it is even more vulnerable than Russia in the economy. Not to mention the complete absence of the possibility of causing unacceptable military damage to Western countries, which can only be done by the Russian strategic nuclear forces. As for Cuba or the DPRK, I do not think that the realities there will be much in the heart of the nouveau riche who were soaked in wealth. And that is if even the voiced islands of freedom will survive under the raging elements of the “democratizers” after the fall of Russia. So, let us take the axiom that Russia is the “last frontier” for GDP and oligarchs.
Next in line is the myth of the "two towers tore off." As has been said many times before, the “patriots”, the “liberals” and the “nationalists” in the Kremlin are united. All of them are working to protect the regime and the property of the oligarchs. And, as I have repeatedly pointed out, they protect both the regime and property both from the West and from us. Therefore, to say that GDP, Lavrov and Shoigu are good patriots, and Nabiullina, DAM or Gref are bad liberals, is completely wrong. This is one team. The team of "their", which "do not pass." And not because they are so friendly and noble, but simply because they can only trust “their own” - proven, built into the system of “checks and balances”. In general, to debunk this myth is a task that is not worth a damn. You just have to ask yourself the question: "WHO HAS APPOINTED THEM." And honestly answer it yourself. And then everything will immediately become clear and understandable.
Now, I think it has become absolutely clear that the authorities in Russia are waging a war with the West. And there can be no "betrayal" there, because "a mustache will sit down". Rather - will fall. And so all decisions are made by “patriots” and “liberals” in the consensus. And there are no “Fed agents” in the Central Bank or “State Department agents” in the Russian government. So, we will proceed directly to discussing the strategic decisions of the Russian leadership on the defense of Russia from the economic aggression of the West, or rather, claims against them from the patriotic Internet community.
I'll start right away with the sarcastic questionwhich I can ask about the "agents". But what about Chubais? Yes, the question will be fair, since Chubais clearly does not fit into the system of the Russian oligarchy. This is clearly a man of the West. But, you see, Chubais has not played any role in Russian politics for a long time. As well as its financial or media capabilities are not comparable with the capabilities of oligarchs or officials. Why is he sitting in Russia, and why is he not touched? This is the "wallet" of the West. The West has a lot of property in Russia, which must be looked after. Solve "questions", "settle disputes", repel "assaults", in general - "protect". For this, a figure so authoritative in political circles is sitting in Russia. Touch which makes no sense. Anyway, someone should do this. Not Chubais, so someone else. At the same time, he does not have real influence, he does not ask much for himself (in terms of oligarchs, of course) for himself. So Chubais in Russia has something of a “diplomatic immunity.” Which, of course, will disappear when the time comes to burn all the bridges.
Next, the points. Devaluation of the ruble. Why the Central Bank and the government are not doing anything to contain the ruble?
First, why is everyone sure that they are “not undertaking”? Officially, the Central Bank refused to intervene, but not completely. If the "presses", then reserve such a "right". At the same time, the bank sells the currency to the Ministry of Finance, which throws out the currency to the exchange. Why, then, the ruble falls? Yes, because the leadership of Russia is profitable. Kohl dollar growth on 1 ruble leads to an increase in ruble reserves by several hundred billion. And this, after all, is practically a monthly “pension” of Russian pensioners. In addition, in the face of falling oil prices, the level of ruble oil revenues is maintained in this way. If at the beginning of last year, oil with 120 dollars cost 3600 rubles (if roughly 30 rubles per dollar), now with 50 - 3500 (if you take 70 rubles per dollar) rubles. The result: the ruble revenues of the state from exports did not fall particularly. It is worth our “partners” to arrange a currency attack, as in “Black Monday and Tuesday”, or as it was with a downgrade, as the course defense mechanisms turn on and stop unnecessary exchange rate jumps. As in any war, there are successful operations, and there are lost battles.
Of course, the devaluation of the ruble against the dollar accelerates domestic inflation. Prices are rising, not only for foreign goods, but also for domestic goods. I agree. Although, let's say, the growth of the main essential goods, such as bread, meat, milk, sugar, salt, soap, is clearly not double. As the growth of tariffs of natural monopolies - it is clearly below the level of "devaluation". Whereas without iPhones, cars, as well as without Polish apples and jamon it is quite possible to get along for some time. The rising cost of imported clothing, medicines and other important goods is, of course, not very pleasant, but for the majority of the population it is clearly not lethal. Well, women will not buy an extra dress or handbag / fur coat, men will deny themselves shoes from “Gucci” and will switch to the Annunciation “Sprout”, postpone the date for updating the computer. Well, those who "did not fit" in the new conditions were never taken into account by the oligarchs and officials in their calculations. The main thing is that they do not gain critical mass.
Key rate of the Central Bank. The key rate problem is that the rate on loans rises, which become inaccessible and “kill” the economy. So, not so. The key rate is the rate at which SHORT-TERM loans are issued, while long-term loans - for the term of 1 of the year - are issued at the refinancing rate. And this rate is 8,5% per annum, not 15-17%, as the key one. Given that lending to the real sector and even consumer lending implies just long-term loans, banks can issue them at a percentage that is unchanged from the 2012 year. It is clear that banks are often “re-credited” for a short period in the event that they are unable to meet their obligations at the moment, or there are large expenses ahead. For example, a wave of defaults has gone, large-scale cash withdrawal operations or money is needed for “holiday” loan shares. So now they will attribute the increased costs of “on-lending” to consumers. But, as they say, the wood is chopped - the chips are flying. Hitting the speculators is more important. Moreover, the consumer credit market in Russia is already overheated and mainly enriches large retail chains and their foreign suppliers. Whereas small business had not had wide access to credit money before. Therefore, raising the key rate did not bring serious problems for the economy as a whole. Although, again, the problems for some specific citizens were very serious, I know the family, which, after raising the rate, was denied a mortgage loan, while they have already sold their old apartment and paid a deposit for a new one. As a result, they were left without money and without an apartment. It is clear that in the future they returned the pledge and were able to buy other housing for themselves, but it is worse both new and old. Plus a lot of nerves. However, such problems arose in a very small number of people. Those same "chips" or "acceptable loss" during the battle. In the place of which, of course, the "commanders" would hardly like to be. And even at that moment, the banks issued loans to regular customers without any problems.
Binding of the ruble to the dollar. Rather, the claim is that it does not untie the dollar. But, then where to put our gold reserves? After all, even if Russia's decision to untie the dollar does not collapse the dollar pyramid, pulling a train from other volunteers behind it, the West may well introduce new “sanctions” against us, freezing our assets and paying our obligations in our favor. At the same time, we, of course, can also default on our obligations. But after all, our obligations are mainly corporate, while foreign obligations are mainly to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and government funds. As a result, the Russian oligarchs will benefit from this exchange, but state employees will lose, for which only gold reserves will remain for guaranteed payments. From the foregoing, it is clear that Russia can go to the decoupling of the ruble from the dollar when the gold reserves run out, nominated at least in "valuable" securities. And ideally, when foreign exchange reserves will be replaced by gold, so that you can release a stable “golden” ruble under it, which will not lead to inflation.
So, I summarize. The economic policy of the government and the Central Bank is not a “liberal betrayal”, but is the result of an agreement with the “patriots” in the Kremlin and the only possible course of action for an oligarchic state in the context of economic war. In principle, Russia has not yet suffered any serious defeats in the economic war. In spite of some tactical failures that caused moral inconvenience to the country's main population. And Obama can in his dreams “rip our economy to shreds” as much as he wants.
What will be next, we "will see." Some moments of the strategy of our authorities, we can consider their official statements. So, the question of moving away from a liberal market economy, at least in the near future, is not even worth it. The question of “tightening the belts” was voiced personally by GDP. However, he also said that the government will fulfill all social obligations. These statements, and the above reflections suggest that the belts will have to be tightened mainly by fans of “living in a big way”. Whereas serious cataclysms in socially significant areas should not be. GDP also announced that it would take two years to “tighten the belt”. It is unlikely that he can expect that in two years it will be possible to force the West to surrender and force him and our oligarchs to accept him as equals. Most likely, we are talking about the fact that by 2017 the collapse of the Western economic system may occur in one form or another. What will allow Russia, if it remains, to start a new economic policy on other principles. The need to get away from the liberal model will be dictated by the fact of its collapse. Well, what our oligarchs will invent to preserve property stolen from us will be seen.
So - "putnesnesl". Just for one reason. GDP can only merge Russia with it. He was sentenced to death at the beginning of 2000, when he ruined the scenario of the final collapse of Russia. However, the sentenced person does not always know about such a sentence. After all, there is an example of Colonel Gaddafi, who called Obama a “son,” and Berlusconi called a “brother.” Apparently, considering that he “bent” sufficiently in front of the West and can calmly live out his age. Similarly, the GDP was informed about the sentence at the moment when it became clear that, even after he had left the post of first person in Russia, he was not eliminated from power, and the Dominator's follower remained loyal to his “patron”. But it's not even GDP. The dust of Berezovsky knocks at the heart of every Russian oligarch. Using the example of this undoubtedly talented villain, the West has shown under what conditions he is ready to “take” them to himself. Moreover, the BAB is still loyal to the West. Unlike the rest of the oligarchs domestic bottling. Well, I will not recall the Cypriot "expropriation", which showed that for the West the property is inviolable only if it belongs to "one's own", or the heavy "right hand" of one of "one's own" has not yet laid down on it. Thus, there is absolutely nowhere for the Russian oligarchs to go down on GDP. And in the case of "Maidan" in Moscow or military defeat, they still die. And for many - also very painful. Considering, again, the existing experience of Gaddafi, who did not want to be quietly strangled, but took it into his head ... It was good for Yanukovych, he could have escaped to Rostov, and where to escape from Russia? China is not a sufficient shelter, as Snowden's epic has shown. And in general, being a “workshop” of the Western world, it is even more vulnerable than Russia in the economy. Not to mention the complete absence of the possibility of causing unacceptable military damage to Western countries, which can only be done by the Russian strategic nuclear forces. As for Cuba or the DPRK, I do not think that the realities there will be much in the heart of the nouveau riche who were soaked in wealth. And that is if even the voiced islands of freedom will survive under the raging elements of the “democratizers” after the fall of Russia. So, let us take the axiom that Russia is the “last frontier” for GDP and oligarchs.
Next in line is the myth of the "two towers tore off." As has been said many times before, the “patriots”, the “liberals” and the “nationalists” in the Kremlin are united. All of them are working to protect the regime and the property of the oligarchs. And, as I have repeatedly pointed out, they protect both the regime and property both from the West and from us. Therefore, to say that GDP, Lavrov and Shoigu are good patriots, and Nabiullina, DAM or Gref are bad liberals, is completely wrong. This is one team. The team of "their", which "do not pass." And not because they are so friendly and noble, but simply because they can only trust “their own” - proven, built into the system of “checks and balances”. In general, to debunk this myth is a task that is not worth a damn. You just have to ask yourself the question: "WHO HAS APPOINTED THEM." And honestly answer it yourself. And then everything will immediately become clear and understandable.
Now, I think it has become absolutely clear that the authorities in Russia are waging a war with the West. And there can be no "betrayal" there, because "a mustache will sit down". Rather - will fall. And so all decisions are made by “patriots” and “liberals” in the consensus. And there are no “Fed agents” in the Central Bank or “State Department agents” in the Russian government. So, we will proceed directly to discussing the strategic decisions of the Russian leadership on the defense of Russia from the economic aggression of the West, or rather, claims against them from the patriotic Internet community.
I'll start right away with the sarcastic questionwhich I can ask about the "agents". But what about Chubais? Yes, the question will be fair, since Chubais clearly does not fit into the system of the Russian oligarchy. This is clearly a man of the West. But, you see, Chubais has not played any role in Russian politics for a long time. As well as its financial or media capabilities are not comparable with the capabilities of oligarchs or officials. Why is he sitting in Russia, and why is he not touched? This is the "wallet" of the West. The West has a lot of property in Russia, which must be looked after. Solve "questions", "settle disputes", repel "assaults", in general - "protect". For this, a figure so authoritative in political circles is sitting in Russia. Touch which makes no sense. Anyway, someone should do this. Not Chubais, so someone else. At the same time, he does not have real influence, he does not ask much for himself (in terms of oligarchs, of course) for himself. So Chubais in Russia has something of a “diplomatic immunity.” Which, of course, will disappear when the time comes to burn all the bridges.
Next, the points. Devaluation of the ruble. Why the Central Bank and the government are not doing anything to contain the ruble?
First, why is everyone sure that they are “not undertaking”? Officially, the Central Bank refused to intervene, but not completely. If the "presses", then reserve such a "right". At the same time, the bank sells the currency to the Ministry of Finance, which throws out the currency to the exchange. Why, then, the ruble falls? Yes, because the leadership of Russia is profitable. Kohl dollar growth on 1 ruble leads to an increase in ruble reserves by several hundred billion. And this, after all, is practically a monthly “pension” of Russian pensioners. In addition, in the face of falling oil prices, the level of ruble oil revenues is maintained in this way. If at the beginning of last year, oil with 120 dollars cost 3600 rubles (if roughly 30 rubles per dollar), now with 50 - 3500 (if you take 70 rubles per dollar) rubles. The result: the ruble revenues of the state from exports did not fall particularly. It is worth our “partners” to arrange a currency attack, as in “Black Monday and Tuesday”, or as it was with a downgrade, as the course defense mechanisms turn on and stop unnecessary exchange rate jumps. As in any war, there are successful operations, and there are lost battles.
Of course, the devaluation of the ruble against the dollar accelerates domestic inflation. Prices are rising, not only for foreign goods, but also for domestic goods. I agree. Although, let's say, the growth of the main essential goods, such as bread, meat, milk, sugar, salt, soap, is clearly not double. As the growth of tariffs of natural monopolies - it is clearly below the level of "devaluation". Whereas without iPhones, cars, as well as without Polish apples and jamon it is quite possible to get along for some time. The rising cost of imported clothing, medicines and other important goods is, of course, not very pleasant, but for the majority of the population it is clearly not lethal. Well, women will not buy an extra dress or handbag / fur coat, men will deny themselves shoes from “Gucci” and will switch to the Annunciation “Sprout”, postpone the date for updating the computer. Well, those who "did not fit" in the new conditions were never taken into account by the oligarchs and officials in their calculations. The main thing is that they do not gain critical mass.
Key rate of the Central Bank. The key rate problem is that the rate on loans rises, which become inaccessible and “kill” the economy. So, not so. The key rate is the rate at which SHORT-TERM loans are issued, while long-term loans - for the term of 1 of the year - are issued at the refinancing rate. And this rate is 8,5% per annum, not 15-17%, as the key one. Given that lending to the real sector and even consumer lending implies just long-term loans, banks can issue them at a percentage that is unchanged from the 2012 year. It is clear that banks are often “re-credited” for a short period in the event that they are unable to meet their obligations at the moment, or there are large expenses ahead. For example, a wave of defaults has gone, large-scale cash withdrawal operations or money is needed for “holiday” loan shares. So now they will attribute the increased costs of “on-lending” to consumers. But, as they say, the wood is chopped - the chips are flying. Hitting the speculators is more important. Moreover, the consumer credit market in Russia is already overheated and mainly enriches large retail chains and their foreign suppliers. Whereas small business had not had wide access to credit money before. Therefore, raising the key rate did not bring serious problems for the economy as a whole. Although, again, the problems for some specific citizens were very serious, I know the family, which, after raising the rate, was denied a mortgage loan, while they have already sold their old apartment and paid a deposit for a new one. As a result, they were left without money and without an apartment. It is clear that in the future they returned the pledge and were able to buy other housing for themselves, but it is worse both new and old. Plus a lot of nerves. However, such problems arose in a very small number of people. Those same "chips" or "acceptable loss" during the battle. In the place of which, of course, the "commanders" would hardly like to be. And even at that moment, the banks issued loans to regular customers without any problems.
Binding of the ruble to the dollar. Rather, the claim is that it does not untie the dollar. But, then where to put our gold reserves? After all, even if Russia's decision to untie the dollar does not collapse the dollar pyramid, pulling a train from other volunteers behind it, the West may well introduce new “sanctions” against us, freezing our assets and paying our obligations in our favor. At the same time, we, of course, can also default on our obligations. But after all, our obligations are mainly corporate, while foreign obligations are mainly to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and government funds. As a result, the Russian oligarchs will benefit from this exchange, but state employees will lose, for which only gold reserves will remain for guaranteed payments. From the foregoing, it is clear that Russia can go to the decoupling of the ruble from the dollar when the gold reserves run out, nominated at least in "valuable" securities. And ideally, when foreign exchange reserves will be replaced by gold, so that you can release a stable “golden” ruble under it, which will not lead to inflation.
So, I summarize. The economic policy of the government and the Central Bank is not a “liberal betrayal”, but is the result of an agreement with the “patriots” in the Kremlin and the only possible course of action for an oligarchic state in the context of economic war. In principle, Russia has not yet suffered any serious defeats in the economic war. In spite of some tactical failures that caused moral inconvenience to the country's main population. And Obama can in his dreams “rip our economy to shreds” as much as he wants.
What will be next, we "will see." Some moments of the strategy of our authorities, we can consider their official statements. So, the question of moving away from a liberal market economy, at least in the near future, is not even worth it. The question of “tightening the belts” was voiced personally by GDP. However, he also said that the government will fulfill all social obligations. These statements, and the above reflections suggest that the belts will have to be tightened mainly by fans of “living in a big way”. Whereas serious cataclysms in socially significant areas should not be. GDP also announced that it would take two years to “tighten the belt”. It is unlikely that he can expect that in two years it will be possible to force the West to surrender and force him and our oligarchs to accept him as equals. Most likely, we are talking about the fact that by 2017 the collapse of the Western economic system may occur in one form or another. What will allow Russia, if it remains, to start a new economic policy on other principles. The need to get away from the liberal model will be dictated by the fact of its collapse. Well, what our oligarchs will invent to preserve property stolen from us will be seen.
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