Chaos logic
Leland Ekston Modezitt, “Sunset Towers”
Events taking place in the former Ukraine in recent days, give reason to reflect. The events that clearly do not fit into the "line of conduct" of those supporters "of the war party that seized power in Kiev. And this is not even the loss of the key point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (Donetsk airport) and the actual destruction of two cyborg battalions." Although the incomprehensible events for us began right there. I’m talking about the rotation of personnel at the airport.Who was replaced? Brought out the representatives of PMCs and fighters of the Right Sector? Who replaced? The subsequent illogical actions of the Kiev military, which provoked the response of the armed forces of the DPR and LPR, are very interesting for analysis and analysis. The hasty break-up of pseudo-agreements “Minsk-1”, a demonstrative rejection of “Astana”, rude statements “to give the teeth”, mobilization, a series of provocations with shelling of buses, trolley-buses and mass death of residents of the south-east of Ukraine, all of this forced the leadership of the people's republics to react based on the situation. Further more.
On the background of the transition to the offensive of the militia on almost the entire front, virtually without putting in reserves, the very fast delivery of a number of held settlements and a key point - Uglegorsk. It is illogical. Further, the very presence of the so-called "boiler" in Debaltseve, and for several months pumped in by the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and at the moment is grinding everything and everyone in it. The provoked scandal with the disbandment and reverse "rebirth" of the "Aidar" battalion and the statement of Sergey Melnychuk about the intention of the fighters, in their majority of adults, big men, return to the building of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine with many thousands rally. And this is at a time when the unshown, mobilized Ukrainian children are turning into cannon fodder. And the declared general mobilization itself, for the time being only male citizens, right up to 60 years, caused a logical reaction - flight beyond the limits of the Square, including into the “aggressor” country.
Following. Against the backdrop of peaceful speeches by the illegitimate president of Ukraine, Poroshenko - a vote in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the declaration of Russia as an aggressor country, the requirement for additional sanctions. Against the backdrop of months of hysteria about the war with Russia, this is an illogical statement by the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Viktor Muzhenko, that regular units of the Russian army are not participating in hostilities in eastern Ukraine. Here are his words: "At present, the Ukrainian army is not fighting with regular units of the Russian army." The subsequent screams with foam at the mouth that Muzhenko is a traitor, and calls for his lustration (the most harmless, by the way). The blasphemous statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Grzegorz Schetyna, regarding the release of prisoners by the Ukrainians from the Nazi concentration camp Auschwitz (Auschwitz-Birkenau) and "historical the discovery of "some" figures "in Ukraine - what is it? An undisguised provocation that distracts us from something important? Forcing us to strain all available diplomatic, state, archival, public resources in order to remind everyone who defeated fascist Germany and how? Or maintaining the degree of conflict at the right level?
Against the background of the sanctions, the United States allowed private money transfers with the Crimea to its citizens and banks. This was reported on Friday 30.01.2015, the US Treasury Department. The permission concerns “non-commercial”, “personal” transfers to the Crimea or from the Crimea, in which the “ordinary inhabitants” of the peninsula are involved. At the same time, charitable donations or the sending of funds that support business in Crimea, including the family business, remain prohibited. Also, US citizens are allowed to transfer cash amounts to "ordinary citizens" of Crimea, which are not included in the list of personal sanctions. Telephone calls, support of accounts in US banks and mailings are allowed. Interesting, yes? Many questions. And we still do not know much, many events remain unnoticed by us, but this is enough to draw some conclusions.
1. Negotiations such as "Minsk-1", "Minsk-2" or, perhaps, "Tashkent-3", can lead to a halt of hostilities and the settlement of the situation. But that someone does not want in the United States. Hence, there will be an escalation of the conflict and the further collapse of Ukraine.
2. Ukraine is a hostage to the current situation; there is interest in some forces in the long, unceasing conflict between the US and Russia. If it were not for Ukraine, they would have found another reason, Belarus, Kazakhstan. And what remains of these states, America is not interested.
3. Sanctions, economic losses of Russia, somersaults on the foreign exchange market, partial isolation in various areas, human sacrifices, growing anxiety within the country is a very high price for Russia for its position in Ukraine. Therefore, it is clear and clear to everyone that Russia will not change its attitude towards events in neighboring Ukraine.
4. Nobody believes in the actual military confrontation between the USA and Russia. There are many restraining factors here, such as: European partners in NATO, the proximity of European countries to a possible theater of military operations, the inevitability of a retaliatory strike by Russia's nuclear triad, a very cooling factor for any unruly head.
5. The US is still more concerned with its own interests, and not with the interests of other countries, Ukraine, or Ivory Coast. Only a subordinate of Colonel Yuri Mamchur could shout: “America is with us” (who remembers — he will understand), but even in a nightmare, Americans will not shout: “Forward, for Ukraine!” To get involved in a war with Russia over Ukraine is not in the plans of the United States.
6. All emerging views overseas can be summarized in one popular word - "Drain". Drain of Ukraine in the full sense of the word, sink into oblivion as a state. A state that for several reasons did not justify the geopolitical hopes of the United States and could not even come close to even a semblance of a European country.
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