Russia can unite Korea by the way
Among the guests at the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Victory in Moscow will be North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. This visit can be called without much stretch historical - not in terms of relations between our two countries, but according to the significance attached to the arrival in Moscow of the youngest ruler of the most closed country in the world in key capitals. And according to the agreements that can be reached during the Moscow meetings.Talk of a possible arrival at the jubilee celebrations of the DPRK “supreme leader” Kim Jong-un has been going on for several months, but only on Wednesday, Putin’s press secretary confirmed, though not definitively, this information: “The Korean side confirmed its participation and is working on the possibility of a visit by Kim Jong UN to Russia. ” In essence, this means that the decision about the trip was made, just the official announcement of it was postponed closer to May (and in Pyongyang in general can only be announced on the eve of May 9).
For a person who is not immersed in the Korean theme, it is difficult to understand why such attention is paid to the arrival of the head of a small Far Eastern country — you never know, the heads of state and government will arrive in Moscow, so what if this is not Obama and not Merkel after all. Most likely, the usual consumer of the yellow media decides, the fact is that the country is very closed, and the leader is the youngest in the world, has not traveled anywhere, so the press is interested, gives the secret and the exotic to the “void-eaters”. Still, this is Kim, who personally shot his uncle from a grenade launcher and then fed him to the pigs, declared war on the USA, and he also studied in Switzerland, an American superstar comes to him to play baseball.
Of course, the American press and Hollywood have done a lot to demonize the Korean leader - suffice it to say that over the past two years two frankly propaganda films (The Fall of Olympus and Interview) have been released, in which the Kim special services attack on White the house and the CIA's attempt to kill Kim Jong-un. That is, Kim deliberately creates an image of the main enemy of the United States — instead of the dead Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden (the next step in the conflict with Russia will be Putin’s cinema demonization — after a year or two, we should wait for such products). But attention to Kim's trip is not connected with American propaganda, but with very specific problems of the current geopolitical situation, in which a small North Korea occupies a disproportionately large place.
By the way, the very possibility of Kim coming to Moscow is already being used by the Anglo-Saxons as one of the arguments explaining why Obama and Cameron will not go to Russia. It would seem, and so everything is clear - the States declared the blockade of Russia, the countries are in a state of economic and cold war. But no, as the Times wrote recently, “because of the invitation of the DPRK leader to Moscow in 2015, the Kremlin“ secured ”the refusal of representatives from other countries, including the United States and Great Britain, to visit the Russian capital. In support of this, the newspaper writes that Putin invited all "representatives of countries that were members of the anti-Hitler coalition," and Korea was under Japanese rule before and during World War II.
The fact that the Korean partisans who fought with the Japanese created the North Korean state is simply ignored by the Times. Grandfather Kim Jong Un (to whom he is extremely similar) was the captain of the Soviet army, and after the defeat of Japan and the liberation of Korea, Moscow entrusted the leadership of the northern part of the peninsula to the south (the Americans occupied the southern part). Even in 1945, Kim Il Sung was awarded the Order of the Red Banner, so the invitation of his grandson is absolutely logical both from a political and from a historical point of view.
Does the West dislike the North Korean regime? And the North Koreans do not like the American one, but it’s not Pyongyang that holds annual military exercises off the coast of Florida. Closed country? But it is up to the people themselves to open or close the country, consider themselves elected and impose it with all the power weapons and propaganda or shut down and live in isolation under the slogan "do not envy anyone in the world." Kim does not urge the United States to change - he only insists that they be removed from the Korean land. Which, of course, is an outrageous interference in the internal affairs of the "American-style world."
May 9 Kim will be in Moscow, this will be his first trip abroad after coming to power. The North Koreans have no particular tradition of first visits abroad - the dynasty ruled the country for the same 70 years, and the first Kim returned home from the USSR, where a year later he went on his first unofficial visit as the leader of people's Korea. His son Kim Jong Il inherited power in 1994 and made his first visit to China (in 2000), and the second, a year later, to Russia. After his death in December 2011, his son observed a three-year mourning, during which no foreign visits are made (this is an unofficial, but really existing position), and now Kim can go anywhere. That is, either to Beijing, or to Moscow, because no other countries (and the DPRK has good relations, for example, with Cuba and Iran) have no such significance for Pyongyang as the two northern neighbors.
China and Russia are the only friendly neighbors of the DPRK. South Korea and Japan, bordering on the sea, are unfriendly because American troops are located on their territory, and they themselves are under American influence (Pyongyang does not even have diplomatic relations with either Seoul or Tokyo, although in the zero years Kim Jong Il came to and the Prime Minister of Japan, and the presidents of South Korea).
Pyongyang itself is not under anyone's influence - the Kims created an absolutely closed and independent regime from anyone. No country in the world can compare with them in this, and, as experience has shown, no pressure, sanctions, economic problems, etc., can change Pyongyang’s position. China is the most important economic partner of the DPRK (it accounts for 90% of foreign trade turnover), but at the same time the Chinese have no opportunity to influence North Korean policy. Not only because it is impossible to influence Koreans in principle, but also because of the special vigilance of Koreans in relation to Beijing.
The history of relations between the two countries goes back several millennia, and a considerable part of this time Korea was in vassal dependence on China (or even was part of it). At the end of the 19th century, the Chinese lost the war over Korea in Japan and the island brothers tried to deprive the Koreans of not only the state, but also their national identity. Of course, unlike the Japanese, the Chinese are for Koreans and brothers in arms (they recaptured North Korea from the Americans in the 1950-1953 war), and they are the main economic partner, and just a good neighbor, but nothing can dictate Beijing Pyongyang.
Namely, due to Korea’s great strategic importance for China, the DPRK has become one of the key points of world politics. The so-called "Korean problem", the Korean nuclear program, which has been on all the lists of major world problems according to the West for two decades, is nothing more than a desire to use the very fact of the existence of the DPRK for combinations to contain China - through constant tension on Far East.
There is no problem of the Korean nuclear bomb - there is a problem of the American troops in South Korea (and also of Japan), which in Pyongyang is considered as a constant threat to the security of the DPRK. Justifications of Americans - they say North Korea is an aggressive state, and therefore we must protect peace on the peninsula - are not able to deceive anyone. No Koreans, no Chinese, no Russian. But while the USSR was alive, the Kims understood that no attack on the North could be in principle, the DPRK was not part of the Warsaw Pact, but was part of the socialist community, and besides it was linked to friendship and mutual assistance treaties with the PRC and the USSR.
The collapse of the USSR and the establishment of relations between China and South Korea at the same time forced Pyongyang to seriously care about their own security - to develop nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. As a result, the DPRK joined the club of nuclear and space powers. Of course, neither Beijing nor Moscow likes the fact that their neighbor is armed with an atomic bomb, but they understand what made him go for it. The reluctance to give the Americans a reason to turn the DPRK into Afghanistan or Iraq - and you can not tell Kima that the United States will never attack them because they understand that China will regard it as aggression against itself. Pyongyang does not want his country's fate to depend on external forces, even on such generally friendly ones as the Chinese.
The fact that the Korean problem has been discussed for many years at the six-party talks (Russia, China, two Koreas, Japan and the USA) does not make it resolvable, because the States refuse to guarantee the security of the DPRK. They even do not cancel the annual joint exercises with the South Korean army (which in Pyongyang regard as a rehearsal of the invasion), although this is what Kim Jong-un urges to say about the possibility of suspending new nuclear weapons tests (which would be a breakthrough at the six-party talks).
The US position is understandable - they do not need a solution to the problem, on the contrary, they specifically provoke Pyongyang in order to maintain their presence in South Korea and always have the opportunity to be at the door of China. The confrontation between the USA and China in the Pacific region is a key problem for the coming decade, and a divided Korea, in one part of which American troops are stationed, is a gift for Anglo-Saxon geopolitics.
China is also interested in using the DPRK factor to put pressure on the US, but he understands that it is possible to squeeze Americans out of South Korea only if the country is united, the main obstacle to which (more precisely, to serious economic cooperation between the two parts of the peninsula) is the mutual distrust of southerners and northerners and the presence of American troops. It turns out a vicious circle from which one could try to find a way out, helping the economic development of North Korea, which has never recovered from the blow struck at the beginning of 90 by the disappearance of socialist countries and trade with the USSR.
China tried to stimulate economic reforms in the DPRK, and Kim Jong Il even began to create experimental joint ventures where South Korean businessmen could invest. However, they did not receive serious development, and their relations with China were put to the test after Uncle Kim Jong Un Chang Xon Taek was executed at the end of 2013, who was responsible for economic ties with China, among other things. The country still needs foreign investment, but Pyongyang wants to attract them in such a way as not to depend on one source and cause uncontrollable processes in a closed and poor Korean society.
What is Russia doing in this situation? Our influence on Korea is based both on historical factors (from the war with Japan in 1905, Korea was formally its cause, until the country's liberation in 1945), and in today's calculations. Pyongyang last year frankly demonstrates its interest in rapprochement with Moscow - starting with the Sochi Olympics, several top Korean leaders visited Russia and the issue of the DPRK's debt was settled (we wrote off 10 from 11 billions).
After the start of a global conflict with the United States, Russia is no longer interested even in pretending that it is playing a game with Washington “we crush Pyongyang with a bomb, and you go to meet us in response to other regions,” so you can build Korean policy , entirely based on our national interests. Russia, like China, needs the US to get out of South Korea, that is, from our borders, therefore, we need a united Korea. That is, the movement in this direction is the start of real negotiations on economic cooperation between the North and the South. Recently, both Pyongyang and Seoul have been taking serious steps towards establishing a dialogue - at the end of last year a delegation headed by three close associates Kim Jong-un arrived in the South.
If the South Korean president accepts an invitation to the May 9 parade in Moscow, Russia could be the venue for the first inter-Korean summit meeting in the past eight years (before that, Kim’s father had met twice with the South Korean presidents in Pyongyang in 2000 and 2007). At least Kim and Park Geun-hye could meet on the sidelines at a reception in the Grand Kremlin Palace, which would be a big breakthrough. So far, in Seoul they say that Park has not decided on her schedule for May - you can imagine how much Washington is putting pressure on South Koreans to prevent the president from traveling to Moscow. And not so much because of the desire to maintain the “blockade of Russia” (South Korea still did not join the Western sanctions), but because of the unwillingness to even allow the possibility of an inter-Korean settlement with the mediation of Russia.
If Pak decides to come to Moscow, then a trilateral meeting (Putin, Pak and Kim), and even a four-sided meeting (including Chinese President Xi Jinping, is quite possible, which would be an ideal option). By the way, when Pak did not go a year ago to open the Olympics in Sochi (where the DPRK was represented by the second most important person - the formal head of state Kim Yong Nam), the Korean press criticized her for this, noting that the low level of the South Korean delegation was a mistake, especially considering that their country accepts the following winter Games.
For Russia, the rapprochement of the two Koreas has not only geopolitical, but also very specific economic benefits, because it will allow to build a gas pipeline and a railway from Primorye to South Korea. Thus, not only two parts of the peninsula will be connected, but also a transport and energy corridor from Europe to Asia will be created. Russia will be able to sell energy resources to South Korea and Japan; cargo from Russia and Europe will be able to be delivered directly to South Korean ports. This will be an important step in the turn of Russia to the East and will have a great influence on the development of our Far East.
An agreement with North Korea on the reconstruction of its railway network is already in place - in exchange for investments, Pyongyang is ready to give Russia access to the little-studied but rich North Korean bowels. Of course, huge investments will be required - up to 25 billions of dollars only on the transport infrastructure, but this money can be attracted by Russia both in China and in South Korea. Funds in general are not the main problem in this case - the most important thing is that in the negotiations on infrastructure projects as a way to integrate Korea four countries agree in principle of political agreement: two Koreas, Russia and China. That is why so much attention is drawn to the visit of Kim Jong-un to Moscow - the young marshal can go down in history not only of his people.
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