About Gaddafi's chance of winning

About Gaddafi's chance of winningApparently, the world community hastened to bury the Colonel. This man causes respect, he accepted the challenge of “the world community and continues the fight. And he has a chance for a strategic victory.


Several factors speak of this - the rebels and the special services of a number of Arab and western states could not kill Muammar Gaddafi and his family, his sons are alive, first of all Khamis, Mutassim, Seif. Although during the assault on Tripoli, this was one of the main tasks. Libyan resistance gained leaders. Aisha stands as a separate line in the personality factor. After killing her husband and child, the West and the rebels ran into the factor of a liberated woman in the East. The woman in Jamahiriya was indeed significantly freer than in many other Arab and African states, and they have no desire to return to the past, to the world of medieval mores. And now these women have their leader. Consider the factor that these women influence their men.

Tripoli was lost largely because of the betrayal, now all high-ranking traitors are revealed. After the loss of the capital ranks of Gaddafi supporters cleared of wavering and traitors all who would have betrayed and left the ranks of Gaddafi's supporters.

The extreme cruelty of the Libyan rebels (in Russian "Vlasovites") led to the fact that the war between the government forces and the rebels ceased to be their personal matter. The people of Libya, before most of whom were indifferent to this war, now have to take weapon in hand. The rebels are cruel to the civilian population, carry out cleansing against the former supporters of Gaddafi, were even marked by ethnogenocide against blacks. In addition, the change of power leads to the redistribution of property. Many people simply have no choice but to take up arms and protect themselves, their families, their villages.

In addition, the PNS ventured to challenge the tribes of Libya. Although the tribal structure in the Libyan state was already in many ways at the stage of decomposition, Gadhafi’s policy contributed to this, but he is still strong. Especially in regions that are off the coastal cities. And now this factor is starting to work against the opponents of the Colonel. The situation in the cities of Bani Walid and Sirte confirms these findings. This is also evidenced by information from the south in the divisions between the Tuaregs and the tribes of the Great Libyan Desert. Tribes are beginning to fight back. Militias defend their cities territory.

Gaddafi maintains significant support on the African continent. Many African states without enthusiasm perceived the change of power in Libya. The recognition procedure is a formality, if Gaddafi turns the tide in his favor, he is immediately recognized. Almost all of Black Africa has a negative attitude towards the Transitional National Council, the massacres of blacks only added “love”. It should be noted that blacks began to flee from Libya. Part of the Arab world also supports Gaddafi, the same Algeria or Syria. This means that one way or another, the Colonel can count on help, cooperation, or at least the neutrality of many African countries.

Gaddafi has the resources to continue the war. He has money, gold, weapons, people and supply channels, supply schemes.

That is why Gaddafi and his supporters have a chance to win. Besides being played on their side. Further crises in the United States, the countries of the European Union may lead to the collapse of the operation. Libyan rebels without the Western coalition is an empty place. Therefore, further delaying the war and transferring it to the stage of anti-colonial war is the Colonel's most advantageous.

For opponents of Gaddafi, it is necessary to resolve the issue with the Colonel himself and his family, to think about other factors. If they do not change them in their favor, the Libyan campaign will be lost.
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  1. Vadivak 14 September 2011 08: 27 New
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    Apparently, the world community hastened to bury the Colonel.

    Nobody writes to the colonel, it seems everyone who wanted to betrayed, then the author is in a hurry, usually the viper is worn by the heart
  2. hellbringer
    hellbringer 14 September 2011 09: 49 New
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    Libyan rebels without a Western coalition are empty space.

    It is high time for us to understand that there are simply no rebels as such, there is just the Western coalition that sponsors local homeless people and wants to get Libya by all means.
    You can call me a home strategist, but the question of Gaddafi’s victory is a question of patience and the coalition’s desire to bring the boble into this meat grinder, and they are afraid to dump the loot, because there is no guarantee that they will pay off, the PNS has shown itself in all its glory, there is a chance not to get oil at all, or to receive, but periodically repairing upstream from terrorist attacks that will reduce profit by 0.
    In general, the war in Libya can be seen as an investment project of the West, no matter how blasphemous it sounds. Now they (the west) are simply facing a choice, as I said above, or maybe they are trying to solve everything with a little blood - to kill Gaddafi.
    1. ballian
      ballian 14 September 2011 13: 57 New
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      About Iraq, too, they screamed about the "investment project of the West" - and where did these kitchen strategists go? Where are the current ones going to go?
      It is pleasant to consider that your opponents - "homeless people", "Vlasovites" and so on - haven’t invented anything new in the world.
      1. hellbringer
        hellbringer 14 September 2011 14: 31 New
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        Do not compare sour with long, there was a full-scale official military operation, because Iraq was a very powerful core, it really interfered with the United States, they blended in there, so to say smeared in full, and let the soldiers now admit that there is no chemical. no weapons, no one is interested in this anymore. Here, supposedly, the support of the rebels, and here is a real investment project, not without reason there are already rumors about 30% of oil for Sarkozy. The bear has not died yet and the skin is already being shared.
        1. ballian
          ballian 14 September 2011 21: 15 New
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          Quote: hellbringer
          not without reason there are already rumors about 30% oil for Sarkozy.

          ______________
          Moreover, the rumors are so clumsily composed that I want to laugh.
          There the French “Total” and when Gaddafi felt fine,
          That's when rumors-fantasies materialize - then there will be something for you to write about in an unconditionally affirmative form.
          To wage a war for the sake of some mythical improvements to the contractual conditions of the Total company is pure fantasy. In Iraq, too, they squeaked, they came to take oil from the Iraqis - then they shut up.
          What upset the Europeans in Gaddafi is his unpredictability - so they decided to use the rebellion to remove him.
      2. LESHA pancake
        LESHA pancake 14 September 2011 16: 58 New
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        and what better to live in your IRAQ, murders every day, and only the democratizers from the USA and NATO are guilty of this.
        1. Marat
          Marat 14 September 2011 21: 15 New
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          Destroyed the urban infrastructure - hit the water supply, power substations, etc.
          Iraq returned to the 19th century. The lives of ordinary people have worsened many times after "democratization." The collapse of any state hits its inhabitants.
          1. hellbringer
            hellbringer 15 September 2011 09: 17 New
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            The total share was not 30% and it is obvious that we are talking not only about the total and not only its interests, if you google now you will see that the total is more likely to be lost from the conflict, (although it sponsors actively rebels) at least now, not the fact that it’s exactly what she will get when sharing, maybe a larger player will come. Further, when everything is done, then of course NATO and Sarkozy will personally report to you, right here at the forum, and write down how and how much they have raped or have from this war. In any case, as good as before the war, the Libyans will not live. Democracy will force them all to the fullest and perhaps we will have another Somalia, or Iraq where piracy, terrorism, murder, violence, hunger will flourish, tribes will slaughter each other, and in separate areas near oil fields corporate mercenaries will ensure the visibility of order, shorter than democracy in its highest manifestation, the same as it should be, according to America, for all the states of the colonies, including the Russian Federation.
  3. Crazyzy
    Crazyzy 14 September 2011 09: 49 New
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    The colonel turned out to be from the public about which they say - if the patient SO wants to live, then medicine is powerless.
    A retired English admiral said that NATO completely ignores the basic foundations and elements of military strategy in this campaign. The capture of Tripoli is once again demonstrated. Government forces in Tripoli suffered the worst defeat of the entire campaign. The boxer fell into a grogging position. (GROGGI - a simultaneous deterioration of the condition that is on the legs of a boxer, after receiving an accurate hit in the sets. The state of the groggie passes quickly, but the boxer loses combat effectiveness for a short time).
    The opponent just had to finish him off. But the opponent was a complete idiot and allowed the enemy to come to their senses, hold out to the gong and catch their breath during the break.
    Gaddafi's supporters regrouped, and this is felt most directly. Now traitors and NATO have men ready to die for their country.
  4. Banshee 14 September 2011 09: 54 New
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    It was not the world community that hurried, but the media of the attacking side itself. That, in general, is correct, only when the words parted with the case, the situation began to change not in favor of the NTC. As they say, where the US and Russia are with China, and where we are ... In any case, the opinion of African countries will be decisive. Support (even if quietly) Colonel - PNS sour.
    The beginning of the civil war is bad news, but that was all. A country where a tribal system was a centuries-old norm, is doomed to civil war. For each of the tribes has its own bell tower / minaret.
    The fact that Gaddafi would not be so easily taken for some reason was sure. The fact that he will fight to the end is sure without reservation. And he has everything for it.
    Personally, I can only wish him luck.
    1. Marat
      Marat 14 September 2011 21: 20 New
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      I can’t even believe it - I also thought it was - it was all over - the second Iraq.

      If Gaddafi continues to fight, I will join in wishing him good luck. He made many mistakes - but what the aggressors did to him, his family and his country - that makes him a martyr. Even if he doesn’t win, by the very fact of resistance he will inflict moral damage on our enemies (and our enemies too)
  5. DEfindER 14 September 2011 10: 58 New
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    There are many examples in history when small, almost primitive countries triumphed over great powers and empires, thanks to the will and spirit of people! (for example, Vietnam, Korea, all the colonies in their struggle for independence) The only problem is that in our time the West has a powerful weapon against the will and spirit of people, they are now beating right in the heart of people breaking their will with the help of a powerful and deceitful propaganda! Therefore, it turned out so easy to win in Iraq and Yugoslavia, thanks to betrayal in the highest circles of society.
    I can say that counterintelligence in Libya did not work well allowing recruiting many of the ruling elite
  6. zczczc
    zczczc 14 September 2011 13: 45 New
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    "Gaddafi has the resources to continue the war" - but less than before the war. Those. he blew more resources, and win less? Yeah.

    But the will of the people there, about which Defender writes, it seems, is not there - the day before the capture of Tripoli they screamed for Gaddafi, then began to trample on his portraits. That's why he blew, and there is no chance of revenge either.
    1. ballian
      ballian 14 September 2011 13: 53 New
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      Yeah, Gaddafi has a chance to win about, oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo1% :))
      And here is what the map of Libya really looks like now
      http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Файл:2011_Libyan_Civil_War.png
      As you can see from the map, things are bad for Gaddafi
      1. zczczc
        zczczc 14 September 2011 16: 10 New
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        I did not write to support the mood of defeatists like you, but to show that the most important thing is the spirit. If even now the supporters of Gaddafi had a real spirit for victory, then he still has a chance.

        I remind you that Moscow was also given to the French for a short while ...
      2. LESHA pancake
        LESHA pancake 14 September 2011 16: 59 New
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        THIS MAP IS IN YOUR IMAGINATION.
  7. PSih2097 14 September 2011 14: 10 New
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    This is how it was in Tripoli according to Spiegel:
    “Sources in the security services, the army and even Gaddafi’s entourage kept us in the know,” recalls Noah. “But until June we had a problem, and a big one. In Tripoli, we couldn’t get weapons. The issue was resolved when Gaddafi ordered to give out thousands trunks. " With the money of wealthy businessmen, the purchase of weapons was organized, and groups of revolutionaries from the city began to seep into the mountains of Nafus, which is west of the capital. There, about 20 people were trained in the use of electronic target detection systems.
    As a result, it was possible to arm 3000 fighters, but Gaddafi’s special services became aware of this. They frantically searched for Aleva, whose real name was still not known. On July 21, a group of revolutionaries stormed the Sheraton Hotel in the prestigious Andalus Quarter, during which special services head Gaddafi Abdullah Senussi was slightly injured. One of the detainees under torture named Noah. On July 22, he was seized and interrogated by Senussi personally.
    “It's an honor after which few are left alive,” Noah says. The fact that Noah and Aleva are one person, the people of Gaddafi have not yet guessed. But Senussi was against the execution - they say, then we will not learn anything from him.
    Meanwhile, preparations were underway. The assault was scheduled for August 20. “NATO thought it was early,” recalls Muhammad Umaish, coordinator of the February 17 Coalition, an association of a number of revolutionary groups. “But people did not want to wait any longer.” By that time, Gaddafi’s forces had suffered losses as a result of the bombing for several months. The revolutionaries had a simple idea that turned out to be brilliant: to start fighting throughout the city at the same time. On the fourth day, the system collapsed, and Noah Aleva was able to escape from prison. He believes that in the end Senussi guessed everything, "however, by that time the head of the special services was thinking about how to escape himself."
  8. Crazyzy
    Crazyzy 14 September 2011 16: 20 New
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    Muammar Gaddafi is still in Libya and in a good mood, with a powerful army behind him, ”says the spokesman for the legal leader of the Libyan Jamahiriya.

    "The leader is in good health, he has a high morale ... He, of course, is in Libya," Musa Ibrahim told Reuters via the telephone line.

    "The war is as far from over as the world can imagine. We are still very strong, our army is still powerful ... Under our control are vast areas of Libya, he said." We are gathering our forces. "

    According to Libyan TV, seven Libyan rebels were killed, and another 10 were injured during the battle of Beni Walid - a city faithful to Gaddafi. Another 15 rebels were killed when Colonel troops attacked an oil refinery in Ras Lanuf on September 12.

    According to the BBC, the militants who attacked Beni Walid were betrayed by the locals, who, having promised the rebels assistance, ambushed them. NATO aviation is trying to bomb the city, European pilots intend to destroy the heavy weapons located in the city.
    1. LESHA pancake
      LESHA pancake 14 September 2011 17: 02 New
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      THERE IS A REAL CIVIL WAR IN LIBYA IN WHICH WESTERN RISES ON THE SIDE OF THE REBELS AND THE BLACK-SKINED AFRICA ON THE SIDE OF GADDAFI THE END OF THIS WAR IS NOT SEEN.
  9. hellbringer
    hellbringer 14 September 2011 17: 10 New
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    Heavy weapons already ??? The news was about snipers, they damn inconsistent in their lies. Perhaps it’s just that the city will be razed to the ground with women and children, this is called a “point strike” according to the NATO classification ... Probably, democrats have already got everyone.
  10. Gurza 14 September 2011 17: 22 New
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    It’s interesting, but if you organize, well, let's say, a fund in support of the Gaddafi regime ....... so to speak, to support the leader of the Jamahiriya with money, do they collect a lot?
    1. PSih2097 14 September 2011 23: 32 New
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      it will be easier to create an international team ...
  11. montemor 14 September 2011 20: 50 New
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    the colonel will soon be called back if, of course, he survives.
  12. cVM
    cVM 14 September 2011 21: 16 New
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    he already has no way to hell, he can only become the second Bin Laden and then the money probably ends up holding mercenaries expensive
  13. PSih2097 14 September 2011 21: 24 New
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    oh well, we still drive Chechen fighters in the mountains, the same thing is done in Iraq and Afghanistan by the Americans, while no one pays attention to the cash reward for extradition ... So Gaddafi can fight for a very long time ....
  14. Nick 14 September 2011 21: 27 New
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    A REAL COLONEL !!!
  15. fantast 15 September 2011 15: 06 New
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    Drawings of the independent English press:

  16. Owl
    Owl 15 September 2011 15: 59 New
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    IT IS NECESSARY TO LEARN FROM ANOTHER MISTAKES, FOR RUSSIA AS WAS THE MAJOR OPPONENT OF THE USA AND NATO, SO HE REMAINED.
    1. Ivan35
      Ivan35 15 September 2011 16: 55 New
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      Your phrase - yes, on posters would be on the streets and in all our media! As in the days of the USSR. Yes, only the "democrats" our internal again will not give
      1. Gurza 17 September 2011 12: 13 New
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        And in my people it’s just no matter who is up there! Democrats are not democrats, the gap between the government and the people is growing every day, so let them do it their own way, and we will all think exactly our own way, although the Union has collapsed, but everything exactly the Soviet consciousness is still alive in the minds of people. we have the Internet, let's hold rallies in it, discuss and make plans, as long as this structure is not controlled !!!!!!!!!
        1. SAVA555.IVANOV
          SAVA555.IVANOV 18 September 2011 20: 25 New
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          WE ARE OLD !!!! AND THIS FACT IS INAPPABLE !!!! AND HERE ARE LOOKING FOR AND PROVOCATORS! SO TO SAY "NO EXPERIENCES HAPPENED" THEY COLLAPSED WITH THE SALE OF DRUGS AND THE KILLING OF PEOPLE THEY WILL DISAPPEAR AND ON THE INTERNET !!!))))))))
  17. Patriot
    Patriot 19 September 2011 09: 48 New
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    Hurray, comrades. Hello everyone,
    Well, we waited for real confirmation that these PPS oppositionists did not represent any military power.
    Islamic mercenaries, a military company and the French legion did all the dirty work for NATO countries with the connivance of the UN and air support of Western armies from the air.
    "The troops of M. Gaddafi captured 17 British and French" mercenaries "
    Soldiers loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi captured 17 "foreign mercenaries" who assisted the army of the Transitional National Council in storming the city of Beni Walid. According to the representative of Colonel Musa Ibrahim, technical specialists and military consultants were captured. “Most of them are French. The group of mercenaries also included two Britons, a native of Qatar and a representative of one of the Asian countries,” M. Ibrahim said in an interview with Syrian television channel Arrai TV on September 18. Read more: http://top.rbc.ru/special/libya/19/09/2011/616068.shtml

    I’m only afraid that this fact will never reach the Western Erectorate, intimidated by Alcaida through its media.
  18. Patriot
    Patriot 19 September 2011 10: 41 New
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    Hurray, comrades. Hello everyone,
    Well, we waited for real confirmation that these PPS oppositionists did not represent any military power.
    Islamic mercenaries, a military company and the French legion did all the dirty work for NATO countries with the connivance of the UN and air support of Western armies from the air.
    "The troops of M. Gaddafi captured 17 British and French" mercenaries "
    Soldiers loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi captured 17 "foreign mercenaries" who assisted the army of the Transitional National Council in storming the city of Beni Walid. According to the representative of Colonel Musa Ibrahim, technical specialists and military consultants were captured. “Most of them are French. The group of mercenaries also included two Britons, a native of Qatar and a representative of one of the Asian countries,” M. Ibrahim said in an interview with Syrian television channel Arrai TV on September 18. Read more: http://top.rbc.ru/special/libya/19/09/2011/616068.shtml

    I’m only afraid that this fact will never reach the Western Erectorate, intimidated by Alcaida through its media.
  19. UAZ Patriot 20 September 2011 01: 02 New
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    Cad, friend I am from Russia I'm with you! pendos urine !!! all revolutionaries are the enemies of your nation!