Saudi elite: inside the dynasty
The death of King Abdullah is an event for the Saudi elite so expected that no sudden problems could arise even theoretically. They did not arise. Successor Salman bin Abdel-Aziz Al-Saud ascended the throne, Prince Mukrin bin Abdel-Aziz Al-Saud became as predictable a new crown prince. Everything was decided long ago, and not a single surprise happened. However, this predictability and ends.
The specificity of the Saudi system of inheritance lies in the fact that by the decision of the founder of the kingdom, King Abdelaziz, the head of state after his death should be his children in turn. The logic of this decision looks purely Saudi: King Abdel-Aziz, having assembled his state from scraps of scattered across the Arabian Peninsula - historical regions, sealed it with a whole series of political marriages with women from all significant tribes and clans of the peninsula. Thus, they were all represented in the country's political establishment.
The death of the founder of Saudi Arabia should not have split the Saudi elite, and therefore it was decided that all sons going back to the largest Saudi tribes and clans would consistently rule the country. This system was good for everyone; only the sons of King Abdulaziz were almost over by today.
The new king Salman and the new crown prince Mukrin, in fact, are the last representatives of the second generation of the dynasty. The time of the third generation is coming, but here the most difficult question arises.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia passed away at 91 year of life
Today, within the dynasty, the three largest groups have been formed, to which the entire Saudi elite has suffered. This is the Sudeiri clan, represented by blood relatives, whose representative is the current King Salman. Clan Sunayan - also blood relatives, to which adjoined the previous king Abdullah, who was a representative of the Shammar tribe. Finally, an extra-clan group of so-called young princes, represented by the richest members of the dynasty.
The first two groups - the traditional conservatives, representing primarily the interests of kindred tribes. The third group consists of well-educated and incredibly rich, and therefore very influential princes, united not only by blood ties, but by the interests and ideology of the country's development.
While the time of the third group has not yet come, they are only getting to power, but right now the crisis of power is coming, and the future of the whole dynasty and its representatives depends on how it is resolved.
It is no longer possible to continue to be guided by the principle of inheritance "from brother to brother" - they are almost over. It is necessary to determine who will become the representative of the new, third generation of rulers of Saudi Arabia and how will the transfer of power be carried out: from him to his sons or again, as before, from brother to brother, but in a new generation. The question is very difficult, since in the first case all current groups and clans are excluded from power, with the exception of the clan of a future successor. What is fraught with struggle within the dynasty and its possible split.
A country assembled on the consent of all tribal groups of the peninsula cannot afford such a split - this will lead to the disintegration of Saudi Arabia. However, the ladder system of inheritance "from brother to brother", going on and on, will also inevitably lead to the situation of feudal fragmentation that we know. After Prince Yaroslav the Wise, Russia also used the legacy system of inheritance, which very quickly led to the separation of territories and led to the emergence of independent principalities, which was the reason for its rapid weakening.
For Saudi Arabia, feudal (as well as any other) fragmentation will lead to disintegration almost instantly into historical areas. This does not suit anyone, but the rejection of the current system of inheritance of power and the transition to a more traditional means the consent of all clans who will be forced to accept the transfer of power into one hand. This is not easy and will require very serious approvals and guarantees.
Despite the closeness of the dynasty and its almost complete impenetrability in decision-making, one can say that this issue has not yet been resolved. The approval period continues. Former King Abdullah significantly strengthened the position of the Sunayan clan and took a number of important steps towards the possible rejection of the current inheritance system. His son, Prince Mutaib, is considered among the most likely successors from among the princes of the new generation.
While the dynasty is unshakable. The death of King Abdullah does not violate its unity and solidity on key issues of state policy. The kingdom’s oil policy is coordinated within all groups in the ruling family, and therefore, King Salman will continue it without any changes. In this sense, no surprises will happen: as long as Saudi Arabia will adhere to the same approaches as before.
The whole question is what decision will be made on the most important issue - the question of power in the future. Depending on whether this decision is agreed or imposed, and the stability of the state in the future will depend. As long as the dynasty has time, and no one will hurry. Too much is at stake to rush into such an important matter.
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