Il and Yun - predicted contrary
American analysts do not take into account the appearance on the MTC market of Russians and Chinese
In the next five years (2015–2019) on the world aviation The market will supply 492 Western-made military transport aircraft totaling $ 51,2 billion in prices for fiscal year 2015. Such a forecast is given by analysts at the American Forecast International Center.
On the global aviation market, Lockheed Martin will dominate the company, which will manufacture 179 BTC (36,4% of the total market), experts say. The European Airbus will take second place (142 aircraft, 28,9%), and Boeing will be the third (61 aircraft, 12,4%). This is followed by the Italian “Alenia Aermacchi” of the Finmeccanica concern (31 aircraft, 6,3%), the Brazilian Embraer (26 aircraft, 5,3%), the German Dornier (20 aircraft, 4,1%). All other aircraft companies will have 33 aircraft (6,7%).
Park in anticipation of change
In monetary terms, the situation on the world market of military transport aircraft will look like this. In the next five years, Airbus (24,2 billion dollars, 47,3%) will become the leader in terms of the volume of funds received from the sale of sold military-technical cooperation. Next will be Lockheed Martin (11,5 billion, 22,5%), Boeing (11,4 billion, 22,3%), Alenia Aermacchi (1,1 billion, 2,1%), Embraer (1 billion dollars, 1,9%), Dornier (0,2 billion dollars, 0,4%). The remaining aircraft companies will have 1,8 billion dollars or 3,5 percent.
“An-70 surpasses Western Atlas A400М Atlas in characteristics, but this is unlikely to help promote the Ukrainian car in the global market”
In the era of the USSR, only two MTC manufacturers dominated the world market - the United States and the Soviet Union. Currently, the situation has changed dramatically, although American manufacturers remain leaders, offering to export only two models - the strategic C-17 "Globmaster III" manufactured by Boeing, and the tactical C-130J "Super Hercules" developed by Lockheed Martin.
In 2015, Boeing will complete the production of the C-17, after which only one model of the US PTS, the C-130J, will remain in production. And so at least until 2017, when the delivery of the 179 US Air Force to the new KS-46A transport aircraft begins.
The aging fleet of tankers is in a state of phased replacement. In the United States, the KS-767A tanker is being created on the basis of the Boeing-46 commercial aircraft, a trial flight of which is scheduled for April 2015. The first 18 of 179 aircraft can be supplied by the USAF in 2017. These planes will be exported from 2018 onwards.
The main competitor of Boeing on the world market of tanker aircraft is the Airbus with the A330 MRTT (multi-role tanker transport) model. The European manufacturer won a tender from Boeing for supplying Singapore with six prospective tankers. India and Qatar are in the final stages of negotiations for the purchase of six and two A330 MRTT respectively. In addition, the French Air Force in November last year announced plans to order nine A330 MRTTs with an option for three more aircraft of this type, which will begin shipping in 2018.
South Korea intends to order four tankers. А330 MRTT, КS-46А and Israeli company Aerospace Industries with converted into a multi-purpose transport aircraft “Boeing 767” MMTT (multimission tanker transport) take part in the tender. The final selection is expected at the beginning of 2015.
Colombia currently operates one 767-200 MMTT, and Brazil has ordered two converted 767-300ER.
Europe initiated the purchase of a multinational fleet of transport tankers, in which the A330 MRTT will win, not KC-46A or other models.
After a series of delays, the four-engine Atlas A400M Atlas appeared on the market, and deliveries to the Air Forces of France, Turkey, Great Britain and Germany began. However, for the further development of the A400M program, export is a decisive factor, since Airbus will not receive any revenues from the basic program for the implementation of 174 aircraft for eight countries-customers.
Updated IL, not yet considered
After solving a very costly but urgently needed task of transferring the production of the IL-76 from Uzbekistan to Ulyanovsk, Russia will try to return to the world market with the upgraded IL-76MD-90А (IL-476 program), Russian-Indian medium transport aircraft MTA (medium transport aircraft) and lightweight military-technical equipment IL-112В. However, there our aviation industry in all segments (heavy, medium and light transport aircraft) is already waiting for competitors from Europe, Brazil and China. Russia refused from the program of the Russian-Ukrainian An-70 due to the fact that Kiev turned off military-technical cooperation with our country, which made any further actions to resuscitate this project meaningless. And although the management of Antonov does not tire of repeating that An-70 surpasses A400M Atlas in its characteristics, this is unlikely to help today to somehow position the car in the global market. In addition, the Economic Court of Kiev in November 2014 ordered the state enterprise Antonov to pay the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 164,3 a million hryvnia (more than 10 million dollars) for non-fulfillment of the contract for the construction of two military technical networks of An-70. So every year optimism about the withdrawal of this aircraft on the world stage is becoming less. Moreover, only Ukraine remained a participant in the program, whose economic situation is close to default.
At the same time, Russia and India are planning to fly a twin-engined MTA into the air in 2017, and in the 2020 to begin delivering this aircraft. The development program worth 600 million dollars is distributed between partners in equal shares. India is ready to purchase 45 aircraft, Russia - 105, another 60 machines are expected to be exported.
Recycling on the march
Transport aircraft occupy the second (after combat) place in the list of purchases of the Air Force. The aging parks of the PTS require the replacement of aircraft, and due to the growing number of natural and man-made disasters, the use of transport aviation to carry out humanitarian operations is of particular importance.
Recently, there is an active replacement of outdated C-130 "Hercules", An-12 and a number of other aircraft that are in service with different countries. In particular, despite a slight decrease in demand for C-130J, Lockheed Martin has stable orders for these PTS. In 2014, South Korea and Israel joined the ranks of their operators. Production of the C-130J family can continue until the 2022 year. Lockheed Martin launched a cheap C-130XJ and a marine patrol SC-130J to expand its customer base. A new five-year contract for the purchase of aircraft of this family for the US armed forces provides for the construction of 79 vehicles: 43 aircraft HC / MC / AC-130J for special operations, 29 transport-combat C-130J for the US Air Force and seven KC-130J-tankers for the Marine Corps infantry. In addition, there is an option for five HC-130J for the US Coast Guard.
Lockheed Martin continues to expand the functionality of the C-130J, offering promptly installed and removed additional on-board equipment that allows for marine patrols, as well as ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) monitoring, reconnaissance and data collection tasks. In 2014, the company launched the commercial cargo version LM-100J, receiving a letter of intent to purchase 10 aircraft of this type from ASL Aviation Group. This aircraft will fly into the air at the start of 2017, and shipments will begin in 2018.
Brazil is ready to press the United States
Despite the best efforts of Lockheed Martin to retain the position of the C-130J family in the global market, the struggle for customers in this class of military-technical cooperation is getting tougher. On the one hand, the competitors are the lighter Airbus С295 and Alenia Aermakki C-27J, on the other - the heavy Embraer KC-390 and Airbus A400M Atlas.
In the niche of light transport tactical aircraft, the European twin-engine turboprop C-27J from Alenia Aermakki, as well as the Erbusov's 295, dominate. To expand the sales of C-27J, the Italian company developed the reconnaissance-shock version MC-27J, into which you can transform C-27J by installing a special set of equipment. "Airbus" also expands the C295 line, offering on its base a variant of an early warning radar detection and control aircraft (DRLO and U).
In 2014, the company sold additional C295 to Brazil, Egypt and Mexico, and Slovakia ordered two C-27. Taking advantage of the fact that India has limited its relations with the Finmeccanica concern after the corruption scandal and Alenia Aermacchi does not offer C-27J to tender for the replacement of Avro-56 transport aircraft (Avro 748), Airbus together with the Indian " Tata ”(Tata) is promoting its C748 there.
Following the trend of creating special-purpose aircraft, the European concern is developing a fire-fighting model, and in Jordan it is converting one of its samples into the combat version of the AC295. Earlier in the same year, ATK converted two CN235 to AC235.
Italy equips the six C-27J to the MC-27J Praetorian version, which will allow them to perform combat missions, as well as act as ISRs. Both C295 and C-27J compete with the American C-130J in the Canadian search and rescue tender.
Embraer received a launch order from its country's Air Force on 28 twin-engine KS-390, which will begin shipping in 2016 – 2017. The Brazilian manufacturer has letters of intent for another 32 aircraft of this type from Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Portugal and the Czech Republic. In strategic plans, it intends to press competitors in the market for the replacement of obsolete C-130 aircraft, the volume of which is estimated at 700 units.
Few Ukrainian Chinese
The program of development of military transport aviation is consistently implemented by China. China has come close to creating heavy military-technical cooperation.
At the factory airfield of Xi'an Aircraft Industrial Corporation (HAC) in Yanlan (Shanxi Province) 26 in January 2013, the first flight of a prototype heavy VTS Y-20 (Yun-20) with 20001 tail number was taken.
At the Airshow China-10 International Aerospace 2014, which took place in Zhuhai from 11 to November 16, the Y-20 was first presented to the public, but only on demonstration flights. With a maximum take-off weight of 220 tons and a payload of over 66 tons, the Y-20 is the largest of all aircraft developed by China at the moment, and its creation is considered an important step towards the development of the national aviation industry and the modernization of the PLA.
As an aviation expert senior colonel (formerly chief test pilot of the J-10 program) Xu Yonglin told the Nanfang Daily publication (Nanfang Daily), Y-20 is similar in weight to YT XNUMX to the recognized world leaders. Its creation will provide China with the opportunity to project military force into the necessary regions of the world.
Recently, Y-20 flight tests for reliability and service life began, in which the aircraft demonstrated impressive results. The third prototype is involved. According to experts, the first serial Y-20 is likely to be adopted by the PLA within two years. However, the exact date of completion of the development of the PTS is still unknown.
As for the general construction of Y-20, this is the result of cooperation with the Ukrainian state-owned enterprise Antonov, which began about 10 years ago. Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers have helped with the design of the wing and in general have provided great assistance in this project. In exchange, they expected to continue cooperation with China, which promised to buy parts and engines in Ukraine. However, several years ago, Beijing suspended negotiations with Kiev on this issue - to the dissatisfaction of its partners.
According to Chinese media, the new transporter, “developed in-house,” is designed to transport personnel, equipment and cargo up to 66 tons over long distances in difficult weather conditions. The aircraft has dimensions: fuselage length - 47 meters, wing span - 45 meters, height - 15 meters. So far, the Russian-made D-30KP-2 engines have been installed on the new VTS, but in the future it is planned to equip it with Chinese turbofan engines WS-20 with a high degree of bypass.
Until recently, the most "capacious" transport model in the PRC was the "Yun-8" carrying capacity of 20 tons. According to this indicator, the new "Yun-20" significantly exceeds its predecessor and can enter the top five MTC in the world. For many years, the An-124 Ruslan of Russian-Ukrainian production, capable of transporting up to 150 tons, holds the first place in the world in terms of carrying capacity. The second and third places are occupied by US military transport aircraft C-5 and C-17 with a payload of 120 and 76 tons, respectively. The fight for fourth place may unfold between Yun-20 and the Russian IL-76MD-90А (Il-476), according to Chinese experts. Load capacity of the latter, according to preliminary estimates, is about 52 tons. In Yun-20, this figure can range from 40 to 66 tons. China is currently exploring the export potential of Y-20.
In general, the creation of a new heavy military-technical cooperation indicates an increase in the potential of the Chinese aircraft industry. Avic Corporation (Avic) is developing a conceptual development of a new Y-30 (Yun-30) transport aircraft with dimensions between the C-130J and A400M, equipped with turboprop or turbojet engines.
It is assumed that Yun-30 will be able to take to the 2020 year, which will indicate a great progress in the development of transport aviation in China. Currently, the most common military-technical cooperation in the PLA Air Force is “Yun-5”, “Yun-7” and “Yun-8”, which are similar in characteristics to An-2, An-24 and An-12.
Yun-30 can be operated along with the strategic Yun-20. In China, discussions are underway regarding the creation of the Y-19 (Yun-19) transporter with the dimension between Yun-30 and Yun-20, but this project is still not launched.
Air transport special forces
A significant part of the transport aircraft market is made up of special-purpose vehicles based on commercial aircraft.
In the 2012, deliveries of the P-117A MPA (Poseidon maritime-patrol aircraft) P-8A MPA maritime patrol aircraft began for the US Navy. 12 aircraft of this type ordered India. Australia plans to purchase up to 12 P-8, which will begin shipping in 2017.
If we evaluate the maritime patrol (MPA) and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft market, then Airbus (CN235, C295), ATR (42 / 75), Bombardier (Q series), Embraer (EMB -145) and Saab (Saab-2000). Airbus and the Indonesian company DT Dirgantara have begun the development of the 28-local NC212, an improved version of the lightweight C212-400 transport aircraft, whose export prospects are estimated at 400 – 450 aircraft for a ten-year period.
Northrop Grumman has already provided the first export customer for its DRLO aircraft and the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, which entered service with the US Navy in November 2014. Japan, which operates Hawkai’s E-2C, plans to acquire four E-2Ds, which it has preferred to DRLO and WB-737 aircraft. By the 2020 E-2D, at the request of the US Navy will be re-equipped to refuel in flight.
India and the UAE are potential buyers of DRLO and E-2D or Boeing-737 aircraft. Qatar acquires three Boeing-737 for DRLO and W, and the Republic of Korea intends to increase the fleet of four cars of this type by two more. These aircraft are also operated in Australia (6 units) and Turkey (4).
Currently, various options are available on the market, including the Airbus С295, Embraer EMB-145 and Saab 2000 Eriay. Exporters of DRLO and U aircraft include Russia and China, which are developing a new generation of aircraft of this type.
India, for example, operates three Beriyev A-50EI units based on Il-76MD from the Israeli Elta radar, and can purchase three more vehicles with the same purpose. Russia is developing a new DRLO and A-100 aircraft based on the IL-76MD-90А, which is scheduled to be presented in 2017 year.
Pakistan uses four Chinese ZDK-03, based on the Y-8F600 turboprop. In China, on the basis of the improved Y-9 transporter, the DRLO and KJ-500 aircraft have been created, which will replace the previous KJ-200 model based on the Y-8. The disk-shaped rotating radar of the KJ-500 aircraft resembles the larger KJ-2000 radar installed on the IL-76. The next-generation Chinese KJ-3000 radar is currently being tested.
In August, the Embraer company handed over 2012 to India the first of three AWACS and U EMB-145 aircraft. On this model, set by Brazil, Greece and Mexico, is the Swedish Erieye radar of the Saab company, but the Indian EMB-145 will receive a radar with AFAR of its own design.
Deficient "kids"
Recently, there has been an increase in demand for low-cost modified turboprop aircraft, the cost of which is less than the cost of unmanned systems. For the United Arab Emirates, Piagio (Piaggio) is developing a maritime patrol aircraft based on the twin-engine turboprop business board P.180 Avanti. Two prototypes began flying in 2014.
Given the increased interest in small platforms, Boeing developed the MSA maritime patrol aircraft (maritime surveillance aircraft), the prototype of which flew a year ago. This sample is based on the Bombardier’s administrative Challenger 605, uses the Poseidon P-8 onboard system architecture and can be equipped with various radar and sensors. MSA competes with various versions of С295, АТR72, Q400 and Saab-2000, as well as aircraft based on the "Falcon" and "Gulf Stream". Boeing estimates the size of the potential market for its MSA in the number of 125 – 150 aircraft in the coming 10 years.
A special niche in the market is occupied by small machines, equipped to perform special tasks. The twin-engine turboprop "King Air" (C-12) of the company Beechcraft continues to be the leader among light scouts, finding widespread use in Iraq and Afghanistan to perform ISR tasks. Since the US Army plans to replace more than 112 C-12, an improved aircraft of this type in various configurations implemented on a unified platform will most likely become the market leader in light reconnaissance turboprop aircraft.
In the next five years (2015–2019) on the world aviation The market will supply 492 Western-made military transport aircraft totaling $ 51,2 billion in prices for fiscal year 2015. Such a forecast is given by analysts at the American Forecast International Center.
On the global aviation market, Lockheed Martin will dominate the company, which will manufacture 179 BTC (36,4% of the total market), experts say. The European Airbus will take second place (142 aircraft, 28,9%), and Boeing will be the third (61 aircraft, 12,4%). This is followed by the Italian “Alenia Aermacchi” of the Finmeccanica concern (31 aircraft, 6,3%), the Brazilian Embraer (26 aircraft, 5,3%), the German Dornier (20 aircraft, 4,1%). All other aircraft companies will have 33 aircraft (6,7%).
Park in anticipation of change
In monetary terms, the situation on the world market of military transport aircraft will look like this. In the next five years, Airbus (24,2 billion dollars, 47,3%) will become the leader in terms of the volume of funds received from the sale of sold military-technical cooperation. Next will be Lockheed Martin (11,5 billion, 22,5%), Boeing (11,4 billion, 22,3%), Alenia Aermacchi (1,1 billion, 2,1%), Embraer (1 billion dollars, 1,9%), Dornier (0,2 billion dollars, 0,4%). The remaining aircraft companies will have 1,8 billion dollars or 3,5 percent.
“An-70 surpasses Western Atlas A400М Atlas in characteristics, but this is unlikely to help promote the Ukrainian car in the global market”
In the era of the USSR, only two MTC manufacturers dominated the world market - the United States and the Soviet Union. Currently, the situation has changed dramatically, although American manufacturers remain leaders, offering to export only two models - the strategic C-17 "Globmaster III" manufactured by Boeing, and the tactical C-130J "Super Hercules" developed by Lockheed Martin.
In 2015, Boeing will complete the production of the C-17, after which only one model of the US PTS, the C-130J, will remain in production. And so at least until 2017, when the delivery of the 179 US Air Force to the new KS-46A transport aircraft begins.
The aging fleet of tankers is in a state of phased replacement. In the United States, the KS-767A tanker is being created on the basis of the Boeing-46 commercial aircraft, a trial flight of which is scheduled for April 2015. The first 18 of 179 aircraft can be supplied by the USAF in 2017. These planes will be exported from 2018 onwards.
The main competitor of Boeing on the world market of tanker aircraft is the Airbus with the A330 MRTT (multi-role tanker transport) model. The European manufacturer won a tender from Boeing for supplying Singapore with six prospective tankers. India and Qatar are in the final stages of negotiations for the purchase of six and two A330 MRTT respectively. In addition, the French Air Force in November last year announced plans to order nine A330 MRTTs with an option for three more aircraft of this type, which will begin shipping in 2018.
South Korea intends to order four tankers. А330 MRTT, КS-46А and Israeli company Aerospace Industries with converted into a multi-purpose transport aircraft “Boeing 767” MMTT (multimission tanker transport) take part in the tender. The final selection is expected at the beginning of 2015.
Colombia currently operates one 767-200 MMTT, and Brazil has ordered two converted 767-300ER.
Europe initiated the purchase of a multinational fleet of transport tankers, in which the A330 MRTT will win, not KC-46A or other models.
After a series of delays, the four-engine Atlas A400M Atlas appeared on the market, and deliveries to the Air Forces of France, Turkey, Great Britain and Germany began. However, for the further development of the A400M program, export is a decisive factor, since Airbus will not receive any revenues from the basic program for the implementation of 174 aircraft for eight countries-customers.
Updated IL, not yet considered
After solving a very costly but urgently needed task of transferring the production of the IL-76 from Uzbekistan to Ulyanovsk, Russia will try to return to the world market with the upgraded IL-76MD-90А (IL-476 program), Russian-Indian medium transport aircraft MTA (medium transport aircraft) and lightweight military-technical equipment IL-112В. However, there our aviation industry in all segments (heavy, medium and light transport aircraft) is already waiting for competitors from Europe, Brazil and China. Russia refused from the program of the Russian-Ukrainian An-70 due to the fact that Kiev turned off military-technical cooperation with our country, which made any further actions to resuscitate this project meaningless. And although the management of Antonov does not tire of repeating that An-70 surpasses A400M Atlas in its characteristics, this is unlikely to help today to somehow position the car in the global market. In addition, the Economic Court of Kiev in November 2014 ordered the state enterprise Antonov to pay the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 164,3 a million hryvnia (more than 10 million dollars) for non-fulfillment of the contract for the construction of two military technical networks of An-70. So every year optimism about the withdrawal of this aircraft on the world stage is becoming less. Moreover, only Ukraine remained a participant in the program, whose economic situation is close to default.
At the same time, Russia and India are planning to fly a twin-engined MTA into the air in 2017, and in the 2020 to begin delivering this aircraft. The development program worth 600 million dollars is distributed between partners in equal shares. India is ready to purchase 45 aircraft, Russia - 105, another 60 machines are expected to be exported.
Recycling on the march
Transport aircraft occupy the second (after combat) place in the list of purchases of the Air Force. The aging parks of the PTS require the replacement of aircraft, and due to the growing number of natural and man-made disasters, the use of transport aviation to carry out humanitarian operations is of particular importance.
Recently, there is an active replacement of outdated C-130 "Hercules", An-12 and a number of other aircraft that are in service with different countries. In particular, despite a slight decrease in demand for C-130J, Lockheed Martin has stable orders for these PTS. In 2014, South Korea and Israel joined the ranks of their operators. Production of the C-130J family can continue until the 2022 year. Lockheed Martin launched a cheap C-130XJ and a marine patrol SC-130J to expand its customer base. A new five-year contract for the purchase of aircraft of this family for the US armed forces provides for the construction of 79 vehicles: 43 aircraft HC / MC / AC-130J for special operations, 29 transport-combat C-130J for the US Air Force and seven KC-130J-tankers for the Marine Corps infantry. In addition, there is an option for five HC-130J for the US Coast Guard.Lockheed Martin continues to expand the functionality of the C-130J, offering promptly installed and removed additional on-board equipment that allows for marine patrols, as well as ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) monitoring, reconnaissance and data collection tasks. In 2014, the company launched the commercial cargo version LM-100J, receiving a letter of intent to purchase 10 aircraft of this type from ASL Aviation Group. This aircraft will fly into the air at the start of 2017, and shipments will begin in 2018.
Brazil is ready to press the United States
Despite the best efforts of Lockheed Martin to retain the position of the C-130J family in the global market, the struggle for customers in this class of military-technical cooperation is getting tougher. On the one hand, the competitors are the lighter Airbus С295 and Alenia Aermakki C-27J, on the other - the heavy Embraer KC-390 and Airbus A400M Atlas.
In the niche of light transport tactical aircraft, the European twin-engine turboprop C-27J from Alenia Aermakki, as well as the Erbusov's 295, dominate. To expand the sales of C-27J, the Italian company developed the reconnaissance-shock version MC-27J, into which you can transform C-27J by installing a special set of equipment. "Airbus" also expands the C295 line, offering on its base a variant of an early warning radar detection and control aircraft (DRLO and U).
In 2014, the company sold additional C295 to Brazil, Egypt and Mexico, and Slovakia ordered two C-27. Taking advantage of the fact that India has limited its relations with the Finmeccanica concern after the corruption scandal and Alenia Aermacchi does not offer C-27J to tender for the replacement of Avro-56 transport aircraft (Avro 748), Airbus together with the Indian " Tata ”(Tata) is promoting its C748 there.
Following the trend of creating special-purpose aircraft, the European concern is developing a fire-fighting model, and in Jordan it is converting one of its samples into the combat version of the AC295. Earlier in the same year, ATK converted two CN235 to AC235.
Italy equips the six C-27J to the MC-27J Praetorian version, which will allow them to perform combat missions, as well as act as ISRs. Both C295 and C-27J compete with the American C-130J in the Canadian search and rescue tender.
Embraer received a launch order from its country's Air Force on 28 twin-engine KS-390, which will begin shipping in 2016 – 2017. The Brazilian manufacturer has letters of intent for another 32 aircraft of this type from Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Portugal and the Czech Republic. In strategic plans, it intends to press competitors in the market for the replacement of obsolete C-130 aircraft, the volume of which is estimated at 700 units.
Few Ukrainian Chinese
The program of development of military transport aviation is consistently implemented by China. China has come close to creating heavy military-technical cooperation.
At the factory airfield of Xi'an Aircraft Industrial Corporation (HAC) in Yanlan (Shanxi Province) 26 in January 2013, the first flight of a prototype heavy VTS Y-20 (Yun-20) with 20001 tail number was taken.
At the Airshow China-10 International Aerospace 2014, which took place in Zhuhai from 11 to November 16, the Y-20 was first presented to the public, but only on demonstration flights. With a maximum take-off weight of 220 tons and a payload of over 66 tons, the Y-20 is the largest of all aircraft developed by China at the moment, and its creation is considered an important step towards the development of the national aviation industry and the modernization of the PLA.As an aviation expert senior colonel (formerly chief test pilot of the J-10 program) Xu Yonglin told the Nanfang Daily publication (Nanfang Daily), Y-20 is similar in weight to YT XNUMX to the recognized world leaders. Its creation will provide China with the opportunity to project military force into the necessary regions of the world.
Recently, Y-20 flight tests for reliability and service life began, in which the aircraft demonstrated impressive results. The third prototype is involved. According to experts, the first serial Y-20 is likely to be adopted by the PLA within two years. However, the exact date of completion of the development of the PTS is still unknown.
As for the general construction of Y-20, this is the result of cooperation with the Ukrainian state-owned enterprise Antonov, which began about 10 years ago. Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers have helped with the design of the wing and in general have provided great assistance in this project. In exchange, they expected to continue cooperation with China, which promised to buy parts and engines in Ukraine. However, several years ago, Beijing suspended negotiations with Kiev on this issue - to the dissatisfaction of its partners.
According to Chinese media, the new transporter, “developed in-house,” is designed to transport personnel, equipment and cargo up to 66 tons over long distances in difficult weather conditions. The aircraft has dimensions: fuselage length - 47 meters, wing span - 45 meters, height - 15 meters. So far, the Russian-made D-30KP-2 engines have been installed on the new VTS, but in the future it is planned to equip it with Chinese turbofan engines WS-20 with a high degree of bypass.
Until recently, the most "capacious" transport model in the PRC was the "Yun-8" carrying capacity of 20 tons. According to this indicator, the new "Yun-20" significantly exceeds its predecessor and can enter the top five MTC in the world. For many years, the An-124 Ruslan of Russian-Ukrainian production, capable of transporting up to 150 tons, holds the first place in the world in terms of carrying capacity. The second and third places are occupied by US military transport aircraft C-5 and C-17 with a payload of 120 and 76 tons, respectively. The fight for fourth place may unfold between Yun-20 and the Russian IL-76MD-90А (Il-476), according to Chinese experts. Load capacity of the latter, according to preliminary estimates, is about 52 tons. In Yun-20, this figure can range from 40 to 66 tons. China is currently exploring the export potential of Y-20.
In general, the creation of a new heavy military-technical cooperation indicates an increase in the potential of the Chinese aircraft industry. Avic Corporation (Avic) is developing a conceptual development of a new Y-30 (Yun-30) transport aircraft with dimensions between the C-130J and A400M, equipped with turboprop or turbojet engines.
It is assumed that Yun-30 will be able to take to the 2020 year, which will indicate a great progress in the development of transport aviation in China. Currently, the most common military-technical cooperation in the PLA Air Force is “Yun-5”, “Yun-7” and “Yun-8”, which are similar in characteristics to An-2, An-24 and An-12.
Yun-30 can be operated along with the strategic Yun-20. In China, discussions are underway regarding the creation of the Y-19 (Yun-19) transporter with the dimension between Yun-30 and Yun-20, but this project is still not launched.
Air transport special forces
A significant part of the transport aircraft market is made up of special-purpose vehicles based on commercial aircraft.
In the 2012, deliveries of the P-117A MPA (Poseidon maritime-patrol aircraft) P-8A MPA maritime patrol aircraft began for the US Navy. 12 aircraft of this type ordered India. Australia plans to purchase up to 12 P-8, which will begin shipping in 2017.
If we evaluate the maritime patrol (MPA) and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft market, then Airbus (CN235, C295), ATR (42 / 75), Bombardier (Q series), Embraer (EMB -145) and Saab (Saab-2000). Airbus and the Indonesian company DT Dirgantara have begun the development of the 28-local NC212, an improved version of the lightweight C212-400 transport aircraft, whose export prospects are estimated at 400 – 450 aircraft for a ten-year period.
Northrop Grumman has already provided the first export customer for its DRLO aircraft and the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, which entered service with the US Navy in November 2014. Japan, which operates Hawkai’s E-2C, plans to acquire four E-2Ds, which it has preferred to DRLO and WB-737 aircraft. By the 2020 E-2D, at the request of the US Navy will be re-equipped to refuel in flight.
India and the UAE are potential buyers of DRLO and E-2D or Boeing-737 aircraft. Qatar acquires three Boeing-737 for DRLO and W, and the Republic of Korea intends to increase the fleet of four cars of this type by two more. These aircraft are also operated in Australia (6 units) and Turkey (4).
Currently, various options are available on the market, including the Airbus С295, Embraer EMB-145 and Saab 2000 Eriay. Exporters of DRLO and U aircraft include Russia and China, which are developing a new generation of aircraft of this type.
India, for example, operates three Beriyev A-50EI units based on Il-76MD from the Israeli Elta radar, and can purchase three more vehicles with the same purpose. Russia is developing a new DRLO and A-100 aircraft based on the IL-76MD-90А, which is scheduled to be presented in 2017 year.
Pakistan uses four Chinese ZDK-03, based on the Y-8F600 turboprop. In China, on the basis of the improved Y-9 transporter, the DRLO and KJ-500 aircraft have been created, which will replace the previous KJ-200 model based on the Y-8. The disk-shaped rotating radar of the KJ-500 aircraft resembles the larger KJ-2000 radar installed on the IL-76. The next-generation Chinese KJ-3000 radar is currently being tested.
In August, the Embraer company handed over 2012 to India the first of three AWACS and U EMB-145 aircraft. On this model, set by Brazil, Greece and Mexico, is the Swedish Erieye radar of the Saab company, but the Indian EMB-145 will receive a radar with AFAR of its own design.
Deficient "kids"
Recently, there has been an increase in demand for low-cost modified turboprop aircraft, the cost of which is less than the cost of unmanned systems. For the United Arab Emirates, Piagio (Piaggio) is developing a maritime patrol aircraft based on the twin-engine turboprop business board P.180 Avanti. Two prototypes began flying in 2014.
Given the increased interest in small platforms, Boeing developed the MSA maritime patrol aircraft (maritime surveillance aircraft), the prototype of which flew a year ago. This sample is based on the Bombardier’s administrative Challenger 605, uses the Poseidon P-8 onboard system architecture and can be equipped with various radar and sensors. MSA competes with various versions of С295, АТR72, Q400 and Saab-2000, as well as aircraft based on the "Falcon" and "Gulf Stream". Boeing estimates the size of the potential market for its MSA in the number of 125 – 150 aircraft in the coming 10 years.
A special niche in the market is occupied by small machines, equipped to perform special tasks. The twin-engine turboprop "King Air" (C-12) of the company Beechcraft continues to be the leader among light scouts, finding widespread use in Iraq and Afghanistan to perform ISR tasks. Since the US Army plans to replace more than 112 C-12, an improved aircraft of this type in various configurations implemented on a unified platform will most likely become the market leader in light reconnaissance turboprop aircraft.
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